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The REAL reason Duke Didnt Catch The TD Pass


StHustle

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1 minute ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Fancy way of making something look much worse than it is.

 

Poster said DK would clearly come down with that, but Metcalf isn't exactly glue-hands.

 

7% vs 10.5%?

 

Wait wait...better yet... 7 drops for a guy who was CONSTANTLY in the game seeing game action and getting comfortable with his QB vs 2 drops who was active for only 5 total games (4 with Allen) and was still developing chemistry with his QB???? 

 

I'm tired of the Duke Williams discussion already. Honestly, the guy shouldve gotten a ton more playing time this year, but he didn't. Would it have changed outcomes of games? Maybe. I don't think we were ever Championship bound, but it might have gotten that single playoff win off our back.

 

Yes, I said that. Just him. He very easily could've been that difference.

 

Regardless, I think he's a fringe roster player next year because I believe (maybe I should say desperately hope...?) that Beane & Co saw that Allen pretty desperately needs a big bodied WR to throw to and so upgrades are coming in the offseason.

 

Duke Williams will just remain one of those "what-ifs" for the 2019 season even if he's not much of a cog in the machine moving forward.

I like Duke, and thought he should have been on the field way early in the year.

 

I don't know if DK makes that catch or not, nobody does.

 

But that's like saying a QB who played 2 games and threw 2 picks is turning the ball over at roughly the same rate as a QB who throws 7 picks in 16 games. 

 

 

 

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10 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

Watch the game again, I just did as it was on the NFL Network. Duke's hands were free on the first attempt at the ball and he most certainly should've caught it. The replay in slow motion clearly showed that ball was right there for him to catch, the announcers even commented on it. Booger said something to the effect that Duke has got to get two hands on that. The arm isn't grabbed until the second attempt at the ball. Not the greatest picture, but you can see both his hands and arms were free to catch the ball. I recommend you rewatch the game again and see the replay of it, it's clear as day, it was a perfect pass.

 

 

1548807049_ScreenShot2020-01-05at4_48_26PM.png.dd7b3e9a8de0cb9c0b0abf98b360d64d.png.a78b918ab70f813c1e99093439fda7ff.png

 

Great shot.

 

Tough catch, but yeah, he could've gotten that.

 

Wish Duke had more game reps all year to build up to moments like that rather than wasting them on the increasingly useless Foster.

3 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

I like Duke, and thought he should have been on the field way early in the year.

 

I don't know if DK makes that catch or not, nobody does.

 

But that's like saying a QB who played 2 games and threw 2 picks is turning the ball over at roughly the same rate as a QB who throws 7 picks in 16 games. 

 

 

 

 

Agreed. It was a ridiculous comparison.

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8 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Great shot.

 

Tough catch, but yeah, he could've gotten that.

 

Wish Duke had more game reps all year to build up to moments like that rather than wasting them on the increasingly useless Foster.

I'm telling you the picture doesn't do it justice, go watch the game again and see the replay it was there for him to grab. I'll admit that he's better than Foster who fell off a cliff compared to last year. I did like his third down catches in the first half, both nice throws and grabs. But if he's going to be the big sure handed receiver who makes the tough catches, he needs to make that catch. Here's to Duke continuing his improvement and knowledge of what it takes to be an NFL WR. If you remember me from early this season that's a big jump forward from where I was with him. He like several other of our young players just need to learn from their first playoff experience.

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3 hours ago, Happy Gilmore said:

From what i can see, Duke's problem is he has a hard time getting separation from the defender.  Other than that, he seems to be sure handed and doesn't have a problem with drops.  I think he's a #2 or 3 WR right now, not sure he'll get to #1 due to lack of speed.

Except for his 2 crucial drops on Saturday right?

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23 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

I'm telling you the picture doesn't do it justice, go watch the game again and see the replay it was there for him to grab. I'll admit that he's better than Foster who fell off a cliff compared to last year. I did like his third down catches in the first half, both nice throws and grabs. But if he's going to be the big sure handed receiver who makes the tough catches, he needs to make that catch. Here's to Duke continuing his improvement and knowledge of what it takes to be an NFL WR. If you remember me from early this season that's a big jump forward from where I was with him. He like several other of our young players just need to learn from their first playoff experience.

 

If it was a drop it was a drop.

 

Looks like he could have caught it.

 

So he dropped a difficult catch, but a very catchable one.

 

I'm agreeing with you.

 

However, I still would argue that any player on the field at any position needs live game reps to get more and more comfortable with the game. That's part of why I  still have so much hope moving forward for young raw guys like Allen and Knox who made many mistakes due to inexperience this year.

 

I don't know if Duke would have caught that ball with more game reps, but he might have. Or we might have won one or two of those one-possession games we lost this year and we might have had a better playoff seeding.

 

Who knows?

 

What I know is our coaches made some absolutely stupid decisions this year, and I think keeping Foster active over Duke for most of our meaningful games this year was one of them.

 

 

This is my biggest problem with McDermott and it all goes back to Allen.

 

"Welp, we've got out 10 point lead, time to go into a shell rather than making some real efforts to put our foot on their throats."

 

2nd half. 13 point lead.

 

"4th and 4 at the opponent 40... well... we're just outside comfortable FG territory and we're ahead by 10 on the road, so punt it rather than going for the jugular." (Ode to irony on this one for later going for it on 4th and 27 and attributing it to wanting to be aggressive. :doh:)

 

3 points later.

 

"Got our 16 point lead, my defense can hold them."

 

They don't. They give up a 75 yard TD drive and a 2 point conversion.

 

Suddenly it's only a one score lead late in the 3rd on the road and NOW you want your young QB to make sure he scores AND protects the football because evidently your defense isn't able to live up to its end of the bargain?

 

Uh oh, our young QB who's NEVER been on this grand a stage fumbled.

 

3 points for the opponent.

 

8 points for the opponent.

 

"Oh crap!!! Josh go win it for us!!!"

 

 

That's McDermott's stupidity. And I bring it back to Duke because you can't expect these kids to just suddenly turn a light switch on. Seasoned vets you could maybe expect that, but not QBs who are playing their 1st EVER playoff game in less than 30 NFL starts or a WR who is in his 5th NFL game EVER after being put back on the bench for half the season.

 

Honestly, the more I think about this year, the more our coaches irritate me.

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1 minute ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

If it was a drop it was a drop.

 

Looks like he could have caught it.

 

So he dropped a difficult catch, but a very catchable one.

 

I'm agreeing with you.

 

However, I still would argue that any player on the field at any position needs live game reps to get more and more comfortable with the game. That's part of why I  still have so much hope moving forward for young raw guys like Allen and Knox who made many mistakes due to inexperience this year.

 

I don't know if Duke would have caught that ball with more game reps, but he might have. Or we might have won one or two of those one-possession games we lost this year and we might have had a better playoff seeding.

 

Who knows?

 

What I know is our coaches made some absolutely stupid decisions this year, and I think keeping Foster active over Duke for most of our meaningful games this year was one of them.

 

 

This is my biggest problem with McDermott and it all goes back to Allen.

 

"Welp, we've got out 10 point lead, time to go into a shell rather than making some real efforts to put our foot on their throats."

 

2nd half. 13 point lead.

 

"4th and 4 at the opponent 40... well... we're just outside comfortable FG territory and we're ahead by 10 on the road, so punt it rather than going for the jugular." (Ode to irony on this one for later going for it on 4th and 27 and attributing it to wanting to be aggressive. :doh:)

 

3 points later.

 

"Got our 16 point lead, my defense can hold them."

 

They don't. They give up a 75 yard TD drive and a 2 point conversion.

 

Suddenly it's only a one score lead late in the 3rd on the road and NOW you want your young QB to make sure he scores AND protects the football because evidently your defense isn't able to live up to its end of the bargain?

 

Uh oh, our young QB who's NEVER been on this grand a stage fumbled.

 

3 points for the opponent.

 

8 points for the opponent.

 

"Oh crap!!! Josh go win it for us!!!"

 

 

That's McDermott's stupidity. And I bring it back to Duke because you can't expect these kids to just suddenly turn a light switch on. Seasoned vets you could maybe expect that, but not QBs who are playing their 1st EVER playoff game in less than 30 NFL starts or a WR who is in his 5th NFL game EVER after being put back on the bench for half the season.

 

Honestly, the more I think about this year, the more our coaches irritate me.

I agree Duke does need some more gameday reps as long as we don't bring in someone better than him during the offseason. I would still love to see him put on 20 pounds and switch to TE this offseason, I think he would tear it up there, especially against LBs and safeties. 

 

My thought on McDermott are this, as Josh grows and continues to improve, he will be more willing take chances and not be so conservative. I think if he had Brees, Rodger, Mahomes or Brady he may have very well have kept the foot on the gas. You are correct in saying it's absurd to ask a young QB to take his foot off the gas, then a quarter later ask him to put the pedal to the metal. 

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57 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

If it was a drop it was a drop.

 

Looks like he could have caught it.

 

So he dropped a difficult catch, but a very catchable one.

 

I'm agreeing with you.

 

However, I still would argue that any player on the field at any position needs live game reps to get more and more comfortable with the game. That's part of why I  still have so much hope moving forward for young raw guys like Allen and Knox who made many mistakes due to inexperience this year.

 

I don't know if Duke would have caught that ball with more game reps, but he might have. Or we might have won one or two of those one-possession games we lost this year and we might have had a better playoff seeding.

 

Who knows?

 

What I know is our coaches made some absolutely stupid decisions this year, and I think keeping Foster active over Duke for most of our meaningful games this year was one of them.

 

 

This is my biggest problem with McDermott and it all goes back to Allen.

 

"Welp, we've got out 10 point lead, time to go into a shell rather than making some real efforts to put our foot on their throats."

 

2nd half. 13 point lead.

 

"4th and 4 at the opponent 40... well... we're just outside comfortable FG territory and we're ahead by 10 on the road, so punt it rather than going for the jugular." (Ode to irony on this one for later going for it on 4th and 27 and attributing it to wanting to be aggressive. :doh:)

 

3 points later.

 

"Got our 16 point lead, my defense can hold them."

 

They don't. They give up a 75 yard TD drive and a 2 point conversion.

 

Suddenly it's only a one score lead late in the 3rd on the road and NOW you want your young QB to make sure he scores AND protects the football because evidently your defense isn't able to live up to its end of the bargain?

 

Uh oh, our young QB who's NEVER been on this grand a stage fumbled.

 

3 points for the opponent.

 

8 points for the opponent.

 

"Oh crap!!! Josh go win it for us!!!"

 

 

That's McDermott's stupidity. And I bring it back to Duke because you can't expect these kids to just suddenly turn a light switch on. Seasoned vets you could maybe expect that, but not QBs who are playing their 1st EVER playoff game in less than 30 NFL starts or a WR who is in his 5th NFL game EVER after being put back on the bench for half the season.

 

Honestly, the more I think about this year, the more our coaches irritate me.

Thank you for summing up exactly what I saw as the single biggest problem we had in this game, and for the season.  

 

The coaching staff need to do some pretty serious and deep self scouting.  They created soooo many of the situations that demanded perfection from a young team.  And then everyone sits here and nitpicks each player's "execution". 

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By the photo, it is PI, the defender is not making a play on the ball, but instead “interfering” by grabbing the offensive players torso/arm. Classic non enforcement of the rules. 

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6 hours ago, StHustle said:

His left arm was hooked which forced an alligator arm attempt. There is NO QUESTION that he makes the catch if that didnt happen. In slow mo you can see he almost still made the grab. Great defense by the DB. Can we PLEASE put to bed the idea this was a drop???

 

DukeW.thumb.jpg.2dd8e9b7096cfcdd82a24fbebeb059bf.jpg

 

On another note...why are you Duke haters so quick to label this guy as either a #5 or even not good enough to be in the league WHEN HE WAS A ROOKIE with very few games under his belt??

Why do top draft picks get the benefit of the doubt based on lack of experience when they are the ones supposed to be so much better than the undrafted guys? Seems undrafted guys are expected to kill it out the gate or they shouldnt be on the team. Duke has 5 NFL games under his belt. Lets compare his first 5 games to DK Metcalf who has a future HOF throwing to him and was the #2 guy on the roster:

 

DK - 

26 Targets
12 Receptions
2 TD
267 Yards

 

DuKe-

29 Targets
16 Receptions
1 TD
215 Yards

 

If Duke had Russell Wilson as his QB, who doubts Duke doesnt have just as good or better numbers than DK?? Let's be real here.

 

so its Josh Allen's fault the CB grabbed Dukes arm ??  So this is a crafty anti Josh thread , got it.

 

 

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8 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

He doesn't have near the speed of DK.  Ran a 4.73 40 which is elite LT speed not #1 WR speed.  He didn't have more than a half a yard of separation most of the game.  They would be foolish not to bring him back but he is not the answer for WR #1.  

Larry Fitzgerald - 4.63

Jerry Rice - 4.71

Chris Carter - 4.63

Anquan Boldin - 4.71

Me - 8.64

 

 

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4 hours ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

I agree Duke does need some more gameday reps as long as we don't bring in someone better than him during the offseason. I would still love to see him put on 20 pounds and switch to TE this offseason, I think he would tear it up there, especially against LBs and safeties. 

 

My thought on McDermott are this, as Josh grows and continues to improve, he will be more willing take chances and not be so conservative. I think if he had Brees, Rodger, Mahomes or Brady he may have very well have kept the foot on the gas. You are correct in saying it's absurd to ask a young QB to take his foot off the gas, then a quarter later ask him to put the pedal to the metal. 

Well stated.  Josh is a top fuel dragster at this point in his career.  Coaches need to prepare a relatively straight path for him.  Road courses aren't great, dragsters don't turn well.  

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9 hours ago, StHustle said:

His left arm was hooked which forced an alligator arm attempt. There is NO QUESTION that he makes the catch if that didnt happen. In slow mo you can see he almost still made the grab. Great defense by the DB. Can we PLEASE put to bed the idea this was a drop???

 

I really like Williams and his skill set. I think he should stay on this team, and I also think he could play an important role next year and beyond. However, IMO, he should have caught that ball. The DB got his hand on Williams' arm and, maybe, prevents Williams from pulling the ball in as he falls. But, IMO, Williams should have pulled that ball in before the DB got his hand in there. 

 

 

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9 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

There are two people on this board:

  • Those who think Duke is a scrub because he played in the CFL.
  • Those who see a guy who was going to be a first round pick before getting suspended who has upside and a skill set our other guys dont.

There is no in between.  There is no shifting anyone from one side to the other.  

 

Bottom line:  Duke bashers were wrong, they wont ever admit it, but they were because they said he would never make the roster, let alone start or contribute.  

 

That doesn't mean Duke is a lock for next years roster or is our future savior at WR.  It means, the kid has potential and he stuck around this long and made an impact at end of season for a reason.  I think he will be here competing again next year.  Whether or not he makes the team or where he is at on the depth chart I think will have a lot to do with what Beane does in both FA and Draft.

 

If Beane just drafts a guy, Duke is going to have a good shot to not only be on the team, but likely open up camp competing to start with the rookie.  If Beane both signs a guy like say AJ Green and also invests an early pick on a WR, then I think Duke is looking at competing for the 5th WR spot next year at best.  

 

 

People keep saying this, but they keep leaving out a key detail...he had not been in game shape at the combine after being cut from the team after the bar fight.  He was faster than his 4.73 time...he still isn't blazing fast, and of course no where near DK, but he was always fast enough to get open in the NFL and has proven that.  

Hes a fine 3rd or 4th reciever and would be happy to have him back next year with a top 2 rounds rookie. 

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6 hours ago, Motorin' said:

No dawg. Though it's a small sample size, Duke's averaging 10.5 drops per 100. 

 

10.5 - 7 = 3.5

 

So I was wrong. That 50% more drops. 

 

3.5 / 7 = .5

 

6 hours ago, Motorin' said:

I like Duke, and thought he should have been on the field way early in the year.

 

I don't know if DK makes that catch or not, nobody does.

 

But that's like saying a QB who played 2 games and threw 2 picks is turning the ball over at roughly the same rate as a QB who throws 7 picks in 16 games. 

 

 

 

 


 

It's also equally accurate to say his drop rate is 3.5 percentage points higher, 47% higher, or Metcalf's is 33% lower. 

 

The only real takeaway is that you can skew impressions depending on how you choose to frame the numbers. The sample size is far too small to draw any meaningful conclusions.

 

And actually, to your second point, it would be equivalent to 2 picks in 3 games vs. 7 in 16. Your miscalculation skewed Duke's ratio by 50%.

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9 hours ago, StHustle said:

 

I get it....but based on the eye test from what you saw this year...would you keep Beasley over Duke?

Beasley and Duke are two separate positions one is the outside the other is a slot

 

No way Williams is the slot guy and all game it appeared to me McKenzie was getting more reps at key times than Beasley not sure why Williams vs Beasley 

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58 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

I really like Williams and his skill set. I think he should stay on this team, and I also think he could play an important role next year and beyond. However, IMO, he should have caught that ball. The DB got his hand on Williams' arm and, maybe, prevents Williams from pulling the ball in as he falls. But, IMO, Williams should have pulled that ball in before the DB got his hand in there. 

 

 

Wow nice vide this was brutal to watch that should of been caught

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1 hour ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

I really like Williams and his skill set. I think he should stay on this team, and I also think he could play an important role next year and beyond. However, IMO, he should have caught that ball. The DB got his hand on Williams' arm and, maybe, prevents Williams from pulling the ball in as he falls. But, IMO, Williams should have pulled that ball in before the DB got his hand in there. 

 

 

That's a tremendous clear video of Duke dropping a perfect pass. I'm keeping Duke as I feel has a lot to offer and he's cheap. He wants a full time gig so he'll play for minimum. 

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44 minutes ago, Todd Allan said:

 

PASS INTERFERENCE. DEFENSE. FIRST AND GOAL FROM THE ONE.

Sigh.

 

A little contact on his leg but that is not usually going to draw PI. 

 

Should have been a catch or at least closer to a catch than it was. 

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10 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

He doesn't have near the speed of DK.  Ran a 4.73 40 which is elite LT speed not #1 WR speed.  He didn't have more than a half a yard of separation most of the game.  They would be foolish not to bring him back but he is not the answer for WR #1.  

 

So... wouldn't Metcalf's numbers be MUCH BETTER then???

 

The point was that Duke wasn't as bad as all that on Saturday, not that he should be our #1... LOL

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All I know if we got the Allen from the first half in the second half who was dropping dimes to people we would have won by 2 TD's.

40 minutes ago, pop gun said:

That's a tremendous clear video of Duke dropping a perfect pass. I'm keeping Duke as I feel has a lot to offer and he's cheap. He wants a full time gig so he'll play for minimum. 

 

10 targets, 4 catches.  If you are going to target a guy who barely plays for you that many times in a playoff game, you better be sure his catch rate is going to be better than 40%.

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1 hour ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

I really like Williams and his skill set. I think he should stay on this team, and I also think he could play an important role next year and beyond. However, IMO, he should have caught that ball. The DB got his hand on Williams' arm and, maybe, prevents Williams from pulling the ball in as he falls. But, IMO, Williams should have pulled that ball in before the DB got his hand in there. 

 

 

 

 

Good point--OP purposefully left out the full clip because it shows that Duke had already let the ball escape through his hands when the DB made contact.  It was already gone--leaving to maybe have some sort of juggling recovery.

 

Catch the ball placed perfectly in your hands.

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9 hours ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

That is his second attempt to catch the ball, why didn't you show the first? Anyways here's the picture of the first attempt at the pass. Notice both arms seem to be free at that point.

 

 

1548807049_ScreenShot2020-01-05at4_48_26PM.png.dd7b3e9a8de0cb9c0b0abf98b360d64d.png.8dac0e96590619d3d1b4ef516fc06aa2.png

 

Thread over. 

 

Congratulations OP, you have created a great thread to prove that Duke dropped that pass. Well done. 

 

This is the very play Duke has to make to have value. He doesn’t separate, he doesn’t play special teams, he doesn’t offer a whole lot after the catch. If he wants to be in the NFL he needs to make this play in the biggest game of his life on a perfect pass. He didn’t. That’s not the end of his career, but it’ll take work to overcome. 

 

Duke is is exactly what we thought he was- a project WR who is a fringe NFL player. Give him every chance to win a job next year, but if the WR room is upgraded as it should be, it’ll be a pretty tough row to hoe.

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2 hours ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

I really like Williams and his skill set. I think he should stay on this team, and I also think he could play an important role next year and beyond. However, IMO, he should have caught that ball. The DB got his hand on Williams' arm and, maybe, prevents Williams from pulling the ball in as he falls. But, IMO, Williams should have pulled that ball in before the DB got his hand in there. 

 

 

Thanks. That's a pass that has to be caught.

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2 hours ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

I really like Williams and his skill set. I think he should stay on this team, and I also think he could play an important role next year and beyond. However, IMO, he should have caught that ball. The DB got his hand on Williams' arm and, maybe, prevents Williams from pulling the ball in as he falls. But, IMO, Williams should have pulled that ball in before the DB got his hand in there. 

 

 

 

That hurts to watch... Also, that throw is sexy af. 

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7 hours ago, Jay_Fixit said:

Except for his 2 crucial drops on Saturday right?

 

At least one of them the defender was hanging on Duke's left arm, which was not called.  Not saying Duke is a #1, because he's not, but he's better than most are giving him credit for.

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9 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

John Brown is a #1.

 

If we find someone better than him, great, but not especially likely.

 

What we need is a major upgrade on the folks below Brown and Beasley.

 

Brown is a #1 in the sense that he is good.  He is not a #1 in the sense that he is a difference maker.  It depends on the definition of #1.  I hear #1 and I think AJ Green, Hopkins, Thomas, Jones, Hill, etc.  Those guys are #1 difference makers and Brown isn't in that league.

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Duke didn't catch it because he's not an NFL caliber impact WR, he's an undrafted fringe roster worthy CFL free agent signing.

 

Beane needs to finish building this WR corp. The 2018 WR group was an embarrassment for any professional football team trying to win. Adding Brown and Beasley was a massive improvement but the remainder of the group is just as bad as 18 and has zero draft capital invested in it.

 

It's lunacy that Duke, who didn't even dress half the year and sparingly played got 10 targets and the largest script in the passing game in our playoff matchup. That's on coaching 100%. It's a slap in the face to Brown and Beasley too, those guys should be ripping.

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11 hours ago, Teddy KGB said:

DK is a grown ass man who would’ve caught the ball.   
 

No free passes.   
 

Hit the weight room Duke, and he still dropped it.   
 

Your pic is after the bobble no ? 

Delusional. On the replay it's clearly hooked and adds to what was already a difficult catch. I'm not sure why some fans are out to villify Duke. This loss wasn't his fault. 

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9 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Mmmmmmm... DK had 7 drops on 100 targets this year.

 

Let's not pretend he's superhuman hands guy all the sudden.

 

Duke had 2 on 19 targets and that one right there was a massively contested catch he likely would've caught if not for the DPI.

 

That said, I do wish we drafted Metcalf instead of Ford last year.

Watch the video. It wasn't DPI. 

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6 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

By the photo, it is PI, the defender is not making a play on the ball, but instead “interfering” by grabbing the offensive players torso/arm. Classic non enforcement of the rules. 

That was after the ball got there.  There was no PI.  It was a good play by the DB and a drop by Duke.

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