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Next two weeks tell us all we need to know

Mikie2times

By Mikie2times
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Mikie2times Veteran

Mikie2times

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Anybody that thinks Denver falls into the easy win category, rude awakening come Sunday . Don't let the record fool you.  This is not a good match up for us. Denver could easily be 6-1 over the last 7 games playing a much more difficult schedule. Two losses by a total of 4 points and the Minnesota debacle last week. They looked better in wins against the Titans and Cleveland. They have an excellent running game ranking 10th on football outsiders. They have the 9th rated defense and 6th rated run defense on Football Outsiders. The make up they have is basically a carbon copy of the Eagles. We do get the benefit of facing an inexperienced QB but if we win this will certainly be the best team we have beat all season. 

 

Following Denver we get another challenging situation. Dallas, like Denver, an excellent run game ranking 3rd in the league behind a huge offensive line. Unlike Denver we should have more luck running the ball. You can run on Dallas and you better try, because that pass rush. Dear lord. Ever since they added Bennett it's gone nuclear. Just having watched them two straight weeks the type of speed they bring off the edge and how aggressive they play. If Josh is dropping back and hanging out he will be done. We have to mirror what Minnesota did to them Sunday Night two weeks ago. Lot of running, misdirection, using the speed against them. Garett is capable of beating himself.  

 

We will play consecutive weeks against teams that directly challenge our weaknesses as we have seen thus far. Excellent rushing teams, excellent run defense and pass rushing. 

 

We have to get a split out of this thing. We will know how far this team has come and where we stand moving forward once everybody is fat and happy on Turkey next Thursday.          

Edited by KzooMike
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Augie Hall of Famer

Augie

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I get it. They are two very challenging games. 

 

All we need to know? With respect, I see them as two games. As always I’ll hope for the best, but know it’s not defining our future. Important to this season indeed, but we could still bounce back with a loss or two. 

4 minutes ago, Rubes said:

Let's just hope we're all fat and happy...

 

 

 

I’m ahead of schedule!  ?

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Rc2catch Veteran

Rc2catch

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None of the games are easy, and of course it doesn’t help buffalo  is a team who only likes to play to the level of their competition thus making easy games nail biters at the end. I think they’ll be ok vs Denver’s run game since they’ll be one dimensional, Cowboys though could get ugly. The way they run and pass, and play D, they’re the toughest matchup all season. 
 

The coaches seem to have a handle on the issues and I expect they learned something about being a little more aggressive last week. 

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Nihilarian Veteran

Nihilarian

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None of the six game will be easy nor will any "tell us all we need to know"!  Bills (#12 ranking) at 7-3 could end up 13-3...alas, we all know they aren't that good just yet. 

 

Denver (#27), @ Dallas (#9) on turkey day! Baltimore (#2), @ Pittsburgh (#16), @ New England (#1), NY Jets (#28). Although,10-6 is more realistic. 

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CardinalScotts Veteran

CardinalScotts

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For me we are ahead of schedule I dont see this team as a serious contender but getting there

They play hard and play for each other is  that good enough to make the playoffs? Yes

Are they likely to knock off Patriots or Chiefs or anyone else on the road- nope

It's been a fun year that could be super exciting if they keep winning, but I  think we all know  they aren't great. Meaning if they come up short don't even start to cry about it, if they make it keep possible success realistic. They have a good young team and a quarterback who's ceiling is incredibly high - it takes time.

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ProcessTruster Veteran

ProcessTruster

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So if winning against the Broncos, Jets and Steelers (games no one will see outside of WNY) gets them to 10 and a road wildcard game, but they are dominated by the Cowboys, Pats and Ravens (presumably all in front of national audiences against super popular teams), they are in no better position than they are in today. That is, Pretenders rather than contenders, right?    Having said all this, I am ok with that outcome, bc IMO this wasn't the year to make a "run" of any kind anyway.    You need a bigger offense than the Bills have this season to make any kind of a run in the playoffs. 

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atlbillsfan1975 All Pro

atlbillsfan1975

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Broncos is a good matchup for the Bills, Dallas not so much.
Bills can beat Denver and should pretty soundly.

 

This team isn’t built yet for a shoot out. Dallas has two very good wide receivers and a very good running back. Dak is a good QB. Dallas will put up points on the Bills, The Bills offense will need to look like it did against Miami for any shot at a win. 

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Protocal69 Veteran

Protocal69

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OP is right. Denver is not going to be a cakewalk game. Their RB Lindsey can take ANY RUN to the house. WR Sutton can go off at anytime as well. On defense they are the real deal. If we get the Josh we seen over the last couple of game we’ll be ok. If the pressure gets to Allen and he reverts back to the Allen of the beginning of the season we might get embarrassed. We are going to need a TEAM effort for every game here on out.

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BillsFanSD Veteran

BillsFanSD

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45 minutes ago, ProcessTruster said:

So if winning against the Broncos, Jets and Steelers (games no one will see outside of WNY) gets them to 10 and a road wildcard game, but they are dominated by the Cowboys, Pats and Ravens (presumably all in front of national audiences against super popular teams), they are in no better position than they are in today. That is, Pretenders rather than contenders, right?    Having said all this, I am ok with that outcome, bc IMO this wasn't the year to make a "run" of any kind anyway.    You need a bigger offense than the Bills have this season to make any kind of a run in the playoffs. 

I agree.  This team is much better than last year's squad, but last year's team was awful and greatly overachieved to win six games.  Our offense made a quantum leap from "abominable" to "mediocre," which is a huge improvement but still not good enough to win a road playoff game.  That's okay.  We were never going to fix everything in one offseason, and going from complete irrelevance last year to a 10-win season this year would be great.  

 

Add a big WR, another RB to complement Singletary, and otherwise spruce up the roster here and there, and we're in business next year.

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BmarvB Veteran

BmarvB

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They're going to have hell on their hands with the Broncos, then there's the murderers row with 3 straight division leaders (Dallas, Baltimore and New England). going 2-2 in that stretch would be nice. We won't beat the Ravens and the Pats still own the AFC East. Cowboys can be had but they're going to be looking to avoid losing two in a row after this upcoming loss to the Patriots. The best we'll do here is a split over the next 4 games. Here's where the truth gets told about what kind of team the Bills really are.

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Lagoon Blues Rookie

Lagoon Blues

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3 hours ago, Protocal69 said:

OP is right. Denver is not going to be a cakewalk game. Their RB Lindsey can take ANY RUN to the house. WR Sutton can go off at anytime as well. On defense they are the real deal. If we get the Josh we seen over the last couple of game we’ll be ok. If the pressure gets to Allen and he reverts back to the Allen of the beginning of the season we might get embarrassed. We are going to need a TEAM effort for every game here on out.

I think they are going to blitz the hell out of him.

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MiltonWaddams Veteran

MiltonWaddams

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58 minutes ago, BmarvB said:

They're going to have hell on their hands with the Broncos, then there's the murderers row with 3 straight division leaders (Dallas, Baltimore and New England). going 2-2 in that stretch would be nice. We won't beat the Ravens and the Pats still own the AFC East. Cowboys can be had but they're going to be looking to avoid losing two in a row after this upcoming loss to the Patriots. The best we'll do here is a split over the next 4 games. Here's where the truth gets told about what kind of team the Bills really are.

I think the Cowboys beat the patriots and then suffer a let down game against the Bills. That’s how the two and two record happens.

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Hapless Bills Fan Hall of Famer

Hapless Bills Fan

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11 hours ago, Augie said:

I get it. They are two very challenging games. 

 

All we need to know? With respect, I see them as two games. As always I’ll hope for the best, but know it’s not defining our future. Important to this season indeed, but we could still bounce back with a loss or two.

 

Agreed.

 

The thing is, people are seeing the Broncos as a must-win game assuming we need 3 more wins, and those wins should be Denver, Steelers, and Jets.

But if we're not good enough to take out a better-quality team such as Dallas, NE, or the Ravens, we're not good enough to go very far in the playoffs anyway.

 

They will be tough games, but if we don't have the hosses to win one of the latter, we don't have the hosses for playoffs either.  If we lose to Denver it's still possible we could take out one of the better teams (we came close with NE despite 4 INTs) and get to the same place.

 

 

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BarleyNY All Pro

BarleyNY

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8 hours ago, NickelCity said:

Looking at the schedule, it's hard not to view the broncos game in particular as pivotal. 


Agree.  If we need a minimum of 3 wins in our last 6 games, this is one we need.  That’s based on it being one of the 3 easier games (relatively speaking).  If we drop it, then we have to pick up a W against a tougher team.

 

The Pittsburgh game is really important.  They’ve got a relatively easy schedule and a loss to us could potentially knock them out on record or tiebreaker.  

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billsfan1959 Veteran

billsfan1959

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3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

The thing is, people are seeing the Broncos as a must-win game assuming we need 3 more wins, and those wins should be Denver, Steelers, and Jets.

But if we're not good enough to take out a better-quality team such as Dallas, NE, or the Ravens, we're not good enough to go very far in the playoffs anyway.

 

They will be tough games, but if we don't have the hosses to win one of the latter, we don't have the hosses for playoffs either.  If we lose to Denver it's still possible we could take out one of the better teams (we came close with NE despite 4 INTs) and get to the same place.

 

Right. If they can't play head to head with teams like Baltimore, Dallas, and New England (and they did come close with NE despite an offensive meltdown), then they are not ready to go very deep in the playoffs. This will be an interesting stretch and I wonder if they are going to keep Daboll in the booth and go more uptempo?

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Hapless Bills Fan Hall of Famer

Hapless Bills Fan

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2 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

Right. If they can't play head to head with teams like Baltimore, Dallas, and New England (and they did come close with NE despite an offensive meltdown), then they are not ready to go very deep in the playoffs. This will be an interesting stretch and I wonder if they are going to keep Daboll in the booth and go more uptempo?

 

If I'm reading between the lines correctly, I think there have been several issues:

1) Daboll being slow to get plays in at times and having play calls that are too complex in nomenclature.  Josh needs the extra time to process at this point.

2) Daboll expecting a higher level of speed/sophistication in reading the D/knowing where to go than Josh can deliver quite yet against fierce pressure .  I think Josh is very very good in the film room, on the boards, and also when he has more time, and that leads Daboll to write checks Josh can't quite cash at times

3) Using as many players as possible in varied roles so as to create confusion on the D, also creates more confusion on the O as Allen has to dilute his reps and establish clear communication with all those guys instead of focusing on 5-6 best offensive playmakers.  And it winds up with crap that scares no one like DiMarco and Smith out wide.

 

I think McDermott put it to Daboll that perhaps going to the booth would help with faster play calling and coming to the line quickly would potentially also allow him to help Josh decode the D on occasion (issues 1 and 2). 

 

But coincidentally, going up-tempo also forces us to keep the same personnel on the field more of the time, and I think that's helpful to Josh as long as we mix things up otherwise.

 

So I hope we keep it up.

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Locomark Veteran

Locomark

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 I agree these games are important but I don’t think Denver is an extremely tough matchup. Denver is a very good him home team and a poor road team who just happened to play the Vikes tough because Fangio knew them inside and out. They have a kid at QB who will not fare well in our house IMO.

 

After this week, I actually find Thursday to be a potential barometer game. There is the potential Dallas beats the Pats and even if they don’t I think they come in very over-confident. Their Defense has been porous lately and they rarely play a QB with Josh’s mobility. I think how Josh handles the big national stage is the major question mark. He didn’t seem to deal with it well against the Pats, but then again it is the best defense in the league by far. My gut is telling me that if Josh keeps his composure and doesn’t throw more than 1 pick Thursday we could win that game. It’s an unknown because we have played no national games with meaning, so how this whole team reacts to that pressure is yet to be seen. Does Dawson Knox or Singletary or Edmonds or Oliver or Ford play better or worse when the big game shows up. We will find out soon enough. 

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warrior9 RFA

warrior9

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22 minutes ago, TheBrownBear said:

Agree with the OP.  Denver is not a good matchup for us.  Our weaknesses play into their biggest strengths.  I expect a low scoring dogfight.  

Yeah I wouldn't be surprised with a 13-10 type game.. much like Titans last year.

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CEN-CAL17 Veteran

CEN-CAL17

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Technically next 3 weeks....

 

Beat Denver is a must....

 

Beat Dallas we have a solid chance of Making the playoffs.

 

Beat Baltimore, we make the playoffs and have more confidence know we just beat one of the top 4 teams in the NFL, why not a SB championship mindset!!!

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Chaos All Pro

Chaos

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seems like there is one group fans convinced that every team we play is better than their record indicates. 

another group of fans seem to think we only play powder puffs. 

 

I am in the category that by week 11, a good team playing at home should be expected to beat beat a 3-7 team who only has 1 road game as a fairly routine matter. 

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Scott7975 Hall of Famer

Scott7975

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2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Agreed.

 

The thing is, people are seeing the Broncos as a must-win game assuming we need 3 more wins, and those wins should be Denver, Steelers, and Jets.

But if we're not good enough to take out a better-quality team such as Dallas, NE, or the Ravens, we're not good enough to go very far in the playoffs anyway.

 

They will be tough games, but if we don't have the hosses to win one of the latter, we don't have the hosses for playoffs either.  If we lose to Denver it's still possible we could take out one of the better teams (we came close with NE despite 4 INTs) and get to the same place.

 

 

 

I semi agree with what you are saying.  This is not necessarily true though.  The playoffs can be a different beast.  We showed already that we can hang with the Pats at least.

 

Example.  First Giants superbowl they beat the Pats.  During the season the Giants lost to the Pats, GB, and both Dallas games.  Not just lost but lost badly against Dallas and GB.  Beat both those teams in the playoffs and beat NE.

 

In the next superbowl run the Giants lost to GB and SF during the season and beat them both in the playoffs.

 

So while I do agree that if we cant show we can hang with these teams it is unlikely we belong in a playoff game... the playoffs are a different animal.  You can lose to a team one week and beat them the next.  I would love to at least beat NE.  Dallas I don't really care about.

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Nextmanup Hall of Famer

Nextmanup

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2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Agreed.

 

The thing is, people are seeing the Broncos as a must-win game assuming we need 3 more wins, and those wins should be Denver, Steelers, and Jets.

But if we're not good enough to take out a better-quality team such as Dallas, NE, or the Ravens, we're not good enough to go very far in the playoffs anyway.

 

They will be tough games, but if we don't have the hosses to win one of the latter, we don't have the hosses for playoffs either.  If we lose to Denver it's still possible we could take out one of the better teams (we came close with NE despite 4 INTs) and get to the same place.

 

 

This team looks like a team destined to lose its first playoff game, whatever it is, wherever it is, assuming we make the playoffs.

 

 

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Dr. K Veteran

Dr. K

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I just watched the Denver/Minnesota game and Denver looks good in a lot of areas. Their defense is fast and hard hitting. They beat up on Dalvin Cook. 

 

I think this is two tough games for the Bills, and your're right, how they play will tell us much more whether they are for real.

 

 

 

 

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Mikie2times Veteran

Mikie2times

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3 hours ago, Chaos said:

seems like there is one group fans convinced that every team we play is better than their record indicates. 

another group of fans seem to think we only play powder puffs. 

 

I am in the category that by week 11, a good team playing at home should be expected to beat beat a 3-7 team who only has 1 road game as a fairly routine matter. 

I expect it to be very polarizing. Pretty much every advanced model used to forecast future success has Buffalo very poorly rated. Most well below even the lowly 3-7 Broncos. They have us rated below Cleveland. It seems to me the more these simulations play out, the more it turns into see the advanced stats were right. Then a win like last week and it’s see we are that good, but the advanced stat guys are like, ugh, this is another powder puff.  As usual the truth is somewhere in the middle. Look at the line movement on this game if you want a clear picture of exactly what I'm saying. Started off -5 and got immediately dropped to -4 and will close at -3. So what you got is the record driven thinkers/perception off record driving the opening number. Then the advanced guys driving it down. Handicappers do not care very much about records, in fact they want teams like Buffalo to have a following and become a popular bet only to fade the hell out of them if the data indicates a regression. I can say to a certainty the data indicates a regression, that doesn't mean it will occur, it's just the data. I can say for Denver it indicates a progression. If you care about that or not, that’s each fans perspective. Just as how much or little the fan base reacts to one game or a series of games. How much they factor in record, base stats, advanced stats and opponents. So on, so forth. 

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