Extend Jordan Phillips?

[Royale with Cheese]

3 years $40,000,000

[Matt_In_NH]

6 hours ago, bigK14094 said:

Incentive laden contract is the ticket here.   He wanted to stay in Buffalo to "prove it"   OK, he did that for sure.  Now the Bills have to pay up or loose him.  Congrats to him for making good on his claims he is a player to fit this D.

 

Why would he accept that though.  On the open market he will get overpaid.

[fansince88]

7 hours ago, SCBills said:

Tricky situation.  I'd offer him a fair contract and hope he simply wants to stay here, as he seems to love Buffalo. 

 

We like to rotate guys and Phillips with a second year Oliver could be an absolute terror up the middle on fresh rotation. 

 

We have a lot of money and need to spend it somewhere..  Locking up our own guys still leaves money for some splash signings and outside of Ngakoue and Scherff, I don't know who is worth throwing money at. 

 

I'd rather overpay for our own guy than for someone else's, if it comes down to that.

For all we know that contract has already been offered.

[aristocrat]

Him, harry, and oliver is a nice rotation but the question is do you keep star through next year or get the cap space?  You'd save about 2.8 mil in cap cutting him so i'd think we keep him.  Really need a d end that can get after the qb. 

[PetermansRedemption]

21 hours ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

I was disappointed when we re-upped him for only one year, just delaying the inevitable and setting up the same predicament for the next offseason. I think you have to extend him at this point.

I was also not happy they signed him for one year. I wonder if that was the Bills choice or Phillips. If it was Phillips choice it worked out very well. At this point we will have to see what he demands. I’d overpay him for 2-3 years but no more than that. 

[Cotton Fitzsimmons]

YE OLE didn’t like when we didn’t get this guy signed in the offseason until the 11th hour and YE will not like it if we don’t get this fellow signed long term. Jordan has been excellent since he arrived last year, he’s still young, and clearly gotten even better this year.
 

No disrespect to anyone who takes the stance that we should offer a modest contract or let him walk, but that feels a lot like letting Winfield or Pat Williams walk and beginning the cycle of drafting replacements and never getting better. This guy is our best defensive lineman right now... pay him.

[Stank_Nasty]

after a bit of digging it looks like phillips is 3rd among all DT's in TFL's and 7th among all defensive lineman. he has 11 total.... just another reason this dude is gonna get serious bank this offseason.

[krf139]

This is exactly the kind of guy who gets an extension and proceeds to disappear.  I wouldn't touch it.  

[thebandit27]

9 minutes ago, Cotton Fitzsimmons said:

YE OLE didn’t like when we didn’t get this guy signed in the offseason until the 11th hour and YE will not like it if we don’t get this fellow signed long term. Jordan has been excellent since he arrived last year, he’s still young, and clearly gotten even better this year.
 

No disrespect to anyone who takes the stance that we should offer a modest contract or let him walk, but that feels a lot like letting Winfield or Pat Williams walk and beginning the cycle of drafting replacements and never getting better. This guy is our best defensive lineman right now... pay him.

 

My man Ye Ole! What's good gent?

 

As long as you're cool giving him a monster deal, like $15M per, then I can see you getting your wish

5 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

after a bit of digging it looks like phillips is 3rd among all DT's in TFL's and 7th among all defensive lineman. he has 11 total.... just another reason this dude is gonna get serious bank this offseason.

 

Yup. TFLs lead to huge pay days.

[Stank_Nasty]

3 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

My man Ye Ole! What's good gent?

 

As long as you're cool giving him a monster deal, like $15M per, then I can see you getting your wish

 

Yup. TFLs lead to huge pay days.

well you team that with the sack totals and I don't see how he isn't getting broke off this offseason.... he's seeing $$$ with every coming sack.

[Real McClappy]

On 11/18/2019 at 10:18 AM, thenorthremembers said:

I disagree.   It pays him as a top 12 defensive tackle in the league.   I wouldnt pay him more than 9 million a year.   If he gets more I wouldnt get in a bidding war.  I think 8-8.5 a year is fair for him.   He is a good pass rushing 3 technique, who gives you some position flexability, but he isnt especially stout against the run and he has played less than 50% of the snap counts this year.

 

The highest paid players at his position are guys who play 70 plus percent of the snap counts.    Maybe someone will pay him top five at his position, I just dont see someone paying him 15million a year.  We will see I suppose.

• 1. Rams defensive lineman Aaron Donald: $22.5 million
• 2. Cowboys defensive lineman Demarcus Lawrence: $21 million
• 3. Chiefs defensive lineman Frank Clark: $20.8 million
• 4. Lions defensive lineman Trey Flowers: $18 million
• 5. Saints defensive lineman Cameron Jordan: $17.5 million  
• 6. 49ers defensive lineman Dee Ford: $17 million 
• 7. Browns defensive lineman Olivier Vernon: $17 million    
• 8. Eagles defensive lineman Fletcher Cox: $17 million
• 9. Falcons defensive lineman Grady Jarrett: $17 million
• 10. Texans defensive lineman J.J. Watt: $16.7 million

https://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/nfl/2019/08/15/highest-paid-defensive-linemen-ranking-nfl-d-linemen-2019-salary/2019664001/

 

He's gonna get paid around 15mill a year IMO

 

Player	Team	Age	Total Value	Avg./Year	Total Guaranteed	Fully Guaranteed	Free Agency
Fletcher Cox	Eagles	29	$102,600,000	$17,100,000	$63,299,000	$36,299,000	2023 Void
Grady Jarrett	Falcons	26	$68,000,000	$17,000,000	$42,500,000	$38,000,000	2023 UFA
Geno Atkins	Bengals	31	$65,200,000	$16,300,000	$17,000,000	$17,000,000	2023 UFA
Kawann Short	Panthers	30	$80,500,000	$16,100,000	$45,000,000	$35,000,000	2022 Void
Marcell Dareus	Jaguars	29	$28,085,000	$14,042,500	$7,835,000	$7,835,000	2021 UFA
Linval Joseph	Vikings	31	$50,000,000	$12,500,000	$31,500,000	$11,150,000	2023 UFA
Sheldon Richardson	Browns	29	$37,000,000	$12,333,333	$21,500,000	$15,000,000	2022 UFA
Star Lotulelei	Bills	30	$50,000,000	$10,000,000	$25,000,000	$18,500,000	2023 UFA
Malik Jackson	Eagles	29	$30,000,000	$10,000,000	$17,000,000	$17,000,000	2022 Void
Dontari Poe	Panthers	29	$28,000,000	$9,333,333	$13,300,000	$10,800,000	2021 UFA
Tyrone Crawford	Cowboys	30	$45,000,000	$9,000,000	$24,675,000	$17,425,000	2021 UFA
Mike Daniels	Lions	30	$8,100,000	$8,100,000	$7,800,000	$7,800,000	2020 UFA
Gerald McCoy	Panthers	31	$8,000,000	$8,000,000	$4,000,000	$4,000,000	2020 UFA
Denico Autry	Colts	29	$17,800,000	$5,933,333	$6,500,000	$6,500,000	2021 UFA
Malcom Brown	Saints	25	$15,000,000	$5,000,000	$5,500,000	$7,500,000	2022 UFA
Ed Oliver	Bills	22	$19,675,154	$4,918,789	$19,675,154	$19,675,154	2023 UFA

https://overthecap.com/position/4-3-defensive-tackle/

 

Edited November 19, 2019 by Real McCoy

[Just Joshin']

Pass rushing DTs  get paid and Bills need to do so.  Beane needs to secure him before he hits the open market.

 

Phillips appears to like it here so he may take a market contract from the Bills before going to FA.

[17islongenough]

 

[Sig1Hunter]

17 minutes ago, 17islongenough said:

 

That mic’d up is my favorite of the year thus far. Love this dude!

[section122]

1 hour ago, Real McCoy said:

• 1. Rams defensive lineman Aaron Donald: $22.5 million
• 2. Cowboys defensive lineman Demarcus Lawrence: $21 million
• 3. Chiefs defensive lineman Frank Clark: $20.8 million
• 4. Lions defensive lineman Trey Flowers: $18 million
• 5. Saints defensive lineman Cameron Jordan: $17.5 million  
• 6. 49ers defensive lineman Dee Ford: $17 million 
• 7. Browns defensive lineman Olivier Vernon: $17 million    
• 8. Eagles defensive lineman Fletcher Cox: $17 million
• 9. Falcons defensive lineman Grady Jarrett: $17 million
• 10. Texans defensive lineman J.J. Watt: $16.7 million

https://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/nfl/2019/08/15/highest-paid-defensive-linemen-ranking-nfl-d-linemen-2019-salary/2019664001/

 

He's gonna get paid.15+

 

Only 3 of those are DTs however 3 of the next 4 are also DTs and make more than 15.  He is in line for quite a payday and imo has earned it.  Front load it while they have extra cap space or push the big hit to year 2 when they move on from Star.  Either way they can and should pay this man his money!

[Seoulofstone]

  Hope he gets a big contract but my guess is elsewhere. Thats no reason for despair-it will bring a comp pick. He deserves it-not bad for a guy picked up off the waiver wire. I wouldn't be upset if he stays but I have confidence that other players would step up if Phillips moves along. Liuget came in off the street and immediately got a sack and Oliver will be improved next year. Star isn't going anywhere however much people want to imagine a roster without his name. McD likes him.

 

  Its dangerous handing out a big long-term contract to a guy with one year of stellar production. Let someone else do it and bring in a young guy.

[Matt_In_NH]

1 hour ago, krf139 said:

This is exactly the kind of guy who gets an extension and proceeds to disappear.  I wouldn't touch it.  

 

To be honest, that is my fear as well.   This regime values haveing guys playing in contract years....lots of one year deals.  Good strategy.  But if he is gone there will be a hole.  Not sure his brother is quite up to par.

Is transition tag an option?

[BuffaloBills1998]

9 hours ago, mattynh said:

 

To be honest, that is my fear as well.   This regime values haveing guys playing in contract years....lots of one year deals.  Good strategy.  But if he is gone there will be a hole.  Not sure his brother is quite up to par.

Is transition tag an option?

Unfortunately this is a huge problem. I see Dareus written all over him. I have the feeling if we pay him that he will disappear and the fan base will turn against not only Philips but Beane and company as well for re signing him and the fan base will begin to question Beane as a GM but same can be said if we don’t resign him and let him walk into free agency and watch him dominate with another team. Unfortunately we’re in a lose-lose situation here with Philips 

Edited November 20, 2019 by BuffaloBills1998

[GETTOTHE50]

I mean I wouldnt give him top 10 money at his position.

 

But hes the best DT on the roster right now.

 

He, Tre-Day, and Milano have been the difference makers on this team. They are the ones who have made the critical plays in desperate moments.

 

Make him the highest paid defensive player on the team, cut Star after this year, and dont look back.

[Augie]

On 11/18/2019 at 9:46 AM, Virgil said:

If they can do it and the cap hit will be this year, absolutely.  
 

He’s going to want to get paid though.  He’s a top DT in the league right now 

 

If the price is too rich, I trust them to pass. In the meantime, I give them credit for a wise pickup and recognizing the talent. 

[Richard Noggin]

On 11/18/2019 at 9:53 AM, Gary Busey said:

 

Fill that other hole.

 

I'd want Star cut regardless of Phillips resigning FWIW

I'm seeing Star play fairly well lately. I know this flies in the face of a popular narrative. But it's what I'm seeing. Hustle plays along the line of scrimmage, some pocket collapsing against the pass, and holding his gap(s) against the run. He's not a pro bowler, and maybe for his money he should be, but he's been solid of late.

 

Is there analysis suggesting otherwise?

[LSHMEAB]

On 11/18/2019 at 8:08 AM, Mango said:

 

He is better than Harry currently...I don't understand why that would not be the case next year, especially considering they don't have all that much invested into Harrison. 

No doubt. Harrison Phillips is still relatively unknown, but we do know he's not a guy who's going to get to the QB. I do think it's very likely he can do what Star does??. And if we pay Star 10 mil plus.......

 

I don't know about anyone else, but I'd like to retain defensive lineman who make plays and tackles the QB behind the LOS. But that's just me.

 

Not quite sure what H Phillips has to do with J Phillips since H plays one tech.

55 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

I'm seeing Star play fairly well lately. I know this flies in the face of a popular narrative. But it's what I'm seeing. Hustle plays along the line of scrimmage, some pocket collapsing against the pass, and holding his gap(s) against the run. He's not a pro bowler, and maybe for his money he should be, but he's been solid of late.

 

Is there analysis suggesting otherwise?

Well the run D was terrible for several weeks until the Miami game when they employed a far more rotational DT approach, so there's that.

Edited November 20, 2019 by LSHMEAB

[BADOLBILZ]

13 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

Yup. TFLs lead to huge pay days.

 

 

Depending on who actually makes it to FA Jordan Phillips may actually be a franchise and trade candidate.

 

McBeane haven't worn that black hat yet it will be interesting seeing how the team reacts when they actually start to have to make business decisions on popular, productive players.

[Dkollidas]

Sign him. 

4yr deal. If he plays it out that $ will be converted to Oliver anyways when he gets an extension after his rookie deal. 

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Richard Noggin said:

I'm seeing Star play fairly well lately. I know this flies in the face of a popular narrative. But it's what I'm seeing. Hustle plays along the line of scrimmage, some pocket collapsing against the pass, and holding his gap(s) against the run. He's not a pro bowler, and maybe for his money he should be, but he's been solid of late.

 

Is there analysis suggesting otherwise?

 

 

The Miami game was Star's best game as a Bill, IMO.   He's really started to get criticized past few weeks........Archuleta even called him out on the broadcast.........and it sure looked like he was unusually active on Sunday.  But then again it was a pretty woeful OL.   We'll see if he can keep it up.  

Edited November 20, 2019 by BADOLBILZ

[Mango]

19 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Depending on who actually makes it to FA Jordan Phillips may actually be a franchise and trade candidate.

 

McBeane haven't worn that black hat yet it will be interesting seeing how the team reacts when they actually start to have to make business decisions on popular, productive players.

We are going to have something like 90M in space next year. Isn’t this the entire reason we went 6-10, so that shite like this didn’t happen. 

[Big Blitz]

I hope I'm wrong but he screams 'motivated by contract year.'  

 

And it's going to cost 12-15 mill per year.  I'm not doing that.  And he's going to turn 28 next year.  2-3 years good production left?  That's what I'd put the contract at go no higher than 12 per.

 

Look at the names on this list in that range and you tell me if he's as good as those guys.  

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/average/defensive-tackle/

 

Also, we need to revisit this discussion after he plays against the Dallas Pittsburgh and Baltimore olines.  Elite players making elite money perform vs the best.  

 

Vs Washington and Philly (the 2 best interior olines we've seen) completely MIA.  

[Aussie Joe]

46 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

 

And it's going to cost 12-15 mill per year.  I'm not doing that.  And he's going to turn 28 next year.  2-3 years good production left?  That's what I'd put the contract at go no higher than 12 per.

 

I would like to see them keep him if there isn’t  crazy money involved ...

 

Earlier in the year I was at 27M for 3 years but that ain’t gunna cut it anymore...

 

$48M/ $27M guaranteed for 4 years is my latest... I would let him go if more is required..

 

 

[ProcessTruster]

On 11/18/2019 at 9:35 AM, BringBackOrton said:

Jordan Phillips is the exact kind of dude you don’t get into a bidding war with. I like him a lot, but history dictates that these kinds of one hit wonder dudes get big deals and then cut a year or two later.

true, guys playing for a contract.  an actor on a stage.   see if you can extend him, of course, but don't make him the next Marcel Dareus. 

Edited November 20, 2019 by ProcessTruster

[atlbillsfan1975]

Beane and McDermott will have a good idea of what to expect from Phillips. I am sure the Bills will make an offer. I also am sure Phillips will year FA and get a higher offer. Phillips likes Buffalo but I’m not sure he likes it enough to take less money. 

[JaCrispy]

5 hours ago, Dkollidas said:

Sign him. 

4yr deal. If he plays it out that $ will be converted to Oliver anyways when he gets an extension after his rookie deal. 

If we choose to extend Oliver...?

[Sundancer]

On 11/18/2019 at 9:53 AM, Gary Busey said:

 

I'd want Star cut regardless of Phillips resigning FWIW

 

This makes no financial sense. He's got a lot of dead cap money the next two years. Unless he is not even worth rotating, they probably keep him. 

 

If they cut him, they pay 8M next year and 5 the year following for him to bag groceries, AND pay for his replacement, probably dumping 15M into a position where they will still be weak. 

Edited November 20, 2019 by Sundancer

[Warren Zevon]

2 hours ago, Sundancer said:

 

This makes no financial sense. He's got a lot of dead cap money the next two years. Unless he is not even worth rotating, they probably keep him. 

 

If they cut him, they pay 8M next year and 5 the year following for him to bag groceries, AND pay for his replacement, probably dumping 15M into a position where they will still be weak. 

 

Thought the dead cap was much less. If your numbers are correct they'll keep him. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

8 hours ago, Dkollidas said:

Sign him. 

4yr deal. If he plays it out that $ will be converted to Oliver anyways when he gets an extension after his rookie deal. 

 

Yep - and then at that point you know what you have in Oliver.  Can he be an effective pass rusher inside?  

2 hours ago, Sundancer said:

 

This makes no financial sense. He's got a lot of dead cap money the next two years. Unless he is not even worth rotating, they probably keep him. 

 

If they cut him, they pay 8M next year and 5 the year following for him to bag groceries, AND pay for his replacement, probably dumping 15M into a position where they will still be weak. 

 

His dead cap hit would be 7.8 million next year - nothing in 2021 unless they split the 7.8 over 2020 and 2021.  The cap hit is his pro-rated signing bonus (which was already paid but split over 5 years), but salary/roster/workout bonuses are not guaranteed.  Cash wise - we would pay him absolutely nothing to not play here next year.  He already got the money when he signed in 2018.  https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/star-lotulelei-12294/

Edited November 20, 2019 by dneveu

[Maynard]

On 11/18/2019 at 7:53 AM, MAJBobby said:

Contact Comparison is Likely Malik Jackson 3yrs/30M with 17 guaranteed 

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/philadelphia-eagles/malik-jackson-9958/

Looks about right to me and 3 years would be perfect. 

[Mango]

3 hours ago, Sundancer said:

 

This makes no financial sense. He's got a lot of dead cap money the next two years. Unless he is not even worth rotating, they probably keep him. 

 

If they cut him, they pay 8M next year and 5 the year following for him to bag groceries, AND pay for his replacement, probably dumping 15M into a position where they will still be weak. 

This sounds exactly like a situation buffalo has been in before. Trade deadweight...because. Eat a ton of dead cap. Pay the replacement similar cash. Get less production (although different roles). Still be weak at the position. 
 

God, I hope we don’t go through groundhogs day with this...

[Don Otreply]

13 hours ago, Mango said:

We are going to have something like 90M in space next year. Isn’t this the entire reason we went 6-10, so that shite like this didn’t happen. 

You’re absolutely right, 

Don’t ya just love it when someone invents an issue that doesn’t exist, and then plays it like it’s a real thing? Always makes me chuckle a bit....

 

Go Bills!!!

[r00tabaga]

Probably gonna have to let him walk unless he gives us hometown discount.

I'd rather have us put money into other areas like defensive end (Yannick n'gakoue) or an established WR and shore up some of our draft picks from previous years....

 

Edit: 

I really like JPhillips97 but he won't be worth it.

Edited November 20, 2019 by r00tabaga

[GoBills808]

This will probably be controversial but my take: I think the Bills will have exactly the right value to put on Phillips. My guess is he will either re-sign here for a lot less than people are thinking, or will go to a DT needy team for a big contract that he will not live up to.

 

I like Phillips a lot...in this scheme. I have been back and forth with folks here about how McDermott uses defensive tackles and it's my belief that they can get comparable production out of that 3tech spot without breaking the bank on a guy who is admittedly putting up great numbers in his role. 

 

He's got talent, and he's flashy. He can also be undisciplined in gap control versus getting upfield and can't hold ground reliably vs double teams (to be fair not many guys playing 3tech can, but McD's defense/rotation sometimes requires it). I am hoping we keep him but not holding my breath and I certainly wouldn't hold it against him if he leaves for a bigger payday.

[JoeF]

I think the Bills have two things going for them.

 

First, Jordan has impressed the coaching staff and made the front office look like geniuses.  Jordan knows what being in a dog house looks like and will likely discount overall contract value to stay in an environment where he knows he is respected and has been designated a leader.

 

Second, overall contract value pales in comparison to the upfront guarantee.  This is where the Bills can "outbid" other teams.  Put money in his pocket to reward him for the play this year.  Do it now and sew it up.  Bills have $24M+ in carryover.

 

I think this gets done by Week 17 and the Bills use some of the unneeded carry-over cap to get it done.  3 year extension/$27 Million and $15Million in bonuses split between $10 Million this year (encumbered all in the 2019 season as added salary) and $5M next with base salaries of $4M a year for the next three years.

Edited November 20, 2019 by JoeF