CURTIS SAMUEL A BILL

[SoCal Deek]

Of recent BILLS receivers who would Samuel compare to? Gabe Davis? John Brown? Robert Woods? Or who? 

[Back2Buff]

I just dont think he was really what this team needed.  They need to draft a WR high that can play on outside still.  So what is this 8 million a year really solving? 

[BillsVet]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

Samuel stats have been similar to last year regardless if it was Cam Newton or Teddy Bridgewater or whomever played in Wash.  

 

Late-career Cam, the now-retired Bridgewater, and Sam Howell versus Josh Allen.  

 

Think Shakir's QB is the same as the aforementioned 3 QB's Samuel's played with.  As in, their production being similar is the comparison?  

 

If you do, then it's time to head back to the Sabres Board. 

[Beck Water]

2 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Of recent BILLS receivers who would Samuel compare to? Gabe Davis? John Brown? Robert Woods? Or who? 

 

Cole Beasley, with a dash of Emmanuel Sanders.  He's been playing mostly from the slot and is solid there, but his RB background makes him a harder RAC guy than Beasley was and he can play better than Beasley could when split out wide.  Probably less of a Football Savant than Beasley but I don't know on that.

 

4 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:

I just dont think he was really what this team needed.  They need to draft a WR high that can play on outside still.  So what is this 8 million a year really solving? 

 

Patience, Grasshopper.  Wait and see what the contract really is.

[julian]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

It's a good question.  I think the narrative is that Gabe has produced more consistently with the lower percentage downfield catches he's been asked to make, but that he has untapped potential because Josh has had poor decision making in choosing to throw to Gabe, and perhaps made the wrong read on option routes with Gabe.  Pederson likely thinks with a QB who plays more in-control and in-system throwing to him, his performance will make a jump, and it may.

Imagine thinking Josh Allen is holding back a WR, I can picture him saying that out loud in a meeting and all the other coaches texting each other… “wtf, is coach drunk” lol

[TheBrownBear]

9 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Of recent BILLS receivers who would Samuel compare to? Gabe Davis? John Brown? Robert Woods? Or who? 

It would seem he's some sort of amalgam of McKenzie (gadget and jet sweeps), Harty (pure speed) and Shakir (size and slot receiving chops).  So, he's not a #2, but he definitely fills a role. 

[longtimebillsfan]

32 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Trent Sherfield had 1 catch for 7 yards in 2 postseason games. Great work Beane!

That's all you can focus on in Beanes tenure?

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, longtimebillsfan said:

That's all you can focus on in Beanes tenure?

It’s the biggest problem. You can argue he’s done a great job with DL depth every year, it’s doesn’t change that the WR group has been completely mismanaged.

[Beck Water]

1 minute ago, julian said:

Imagine thinking Josh Allen is holding back a WR, I can picture him saying that out loud in a meeting and all the other coaches texting each other… “wtf, is coach drunk” lol

 

Well.....context matters.  If your QB is the former #1 overall pick in the draft, is widely regarded as one of the best technical passers in the game, you're a coach who prides yourself on teaching offense, and you've already got a WR in the room who was a Bust in Buffalo but started looking like a legit NFL WR on your watch (Zay Jones), you might have a better case for yourself than otherwise.

 

But I don't think he puts it that way.  I think when you roll the Gabe Davis hightlights, there's a good bit of "Gabe read the defense correctly and chose the right route option there, that INT is not on Gabe" "WTF was Allen thinking, chucking it into triple coverage there, that INT is not on Gabe" and everyone else in the room nods because he's right.

[julian]

1 minute ago, Beck Water said:

 

Well.....context matters.  If your QB is the former #1 overall pick in the draft, is widely regarded as one of the best technical passers in the game, you're a coach who prides yourself on teaching offense, and you've already got a WR in the room who was a Bust in Buffalo but started looking like a legit NFL WR on your watch (Zay Jones), you might have a better case for yourself than otherwise.

 

But I don't think he puts it that way.  I think when you roll the Gabe Davis hightlights, there's a good bit of "Gabe read the defense correctly and chose the right route option there, that INT is not on Gabe" "WTF was Allen thinking, chucking it into triple coverage there, that INT is not on Gabe" and everyone else in the room nods because he's right.

I was just having a little fun lol.. it’s entirely possible they think Gabe is a better fit for their offense than he was for Buffalo.

 

 I personally believe Josh maxed out Davis’s abilities and helped earn him that nice payday, but we’ll see how it goes, I’m certainly not rooting against him.

[BADOLBILZ]

37 minutes ago, longtimebillsfan said:

You are so clever.

 

 

Thanks but I liked @FireChans "don't p!ss on our heads and tell us it's raining better" though. 

 

It's a message board we are going to draw distinctions between winning SB's versus getting beaten in the divisional round every year.    

 

If you think it's all the same level of accomplishment.........that's your prerogative to feel that way but the objective of the game is, in fact,  to win the SB.   

 

  The standard is the standard and accepting that and "not enjoying" the ride are not necessarily the same thing.    Not that this past season was a joy ride for everyone involved with or following the Bills.   I mean ask Ken Dorsey if he'd have liked to have DHop.

[Beck Water]

1 minute ago, julian said:

I was just having a little fun lol.. it’s entirely possible they think Gabe is a better fit for their offense than he was for Buffalo.

 

 I personally believe Josh maxed out Davis’s abilities and helped earn him that nice payday, but we’ll see how it goes, I’m certainly not rooting against him.

 

I think it's entirely possible that Gabe has fewer targets but a higher catch % and fewer interceptions against him in Jax.  But that may go with fewer receptions and lower yards.

[papazoid]

WR guru gushes over Buffalo Bills signing Curtis Samuel: ‘What an upgrade over Gabe Davis!’

 

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/other/wr-guru-gushes-over-buffalo-bills-signing-curtis-samuel-what-an-upgrade-over-gabe-davis/ar-BB1jX4qq

[JohnBonhamRocks]

39 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

Samuel is one of the most explosive WR's off the line and his separation yards were the same as Tyreek Hill at 3.3 avg

Would you just stop it with these facts? Getting in the way of many people’s predetermined emotional response!

[Prospector]

1 hour ago, Dillenger4 said:

Just spoke to a good friend who works with an NFL team. Says that Samuel will most likely be "another McKenzie". Very similar player to McKenzie. Thinks we way overpaid. Take it as food for thought... just sharing.

I'm kinda mute on this signing. It feels like a glorified sherfield/harty move.

I agree 100%. Davis will be missed boys. You watch...

We will, and keep receipts… just Incase. 
name is Dillenger4, got it

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

36 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

There's no "think" about it.  Samuel HAS done far better in his career, than Sherfield or Harty have done in their careers as receivers.  His worst season of play since his rookie year is about the same as their best season.

 

I don't expect this huge jump in his numbers simply because i expect kincaid and shakir to get greater target share, and a rookie to take a chunk out of the diggs/davis targets.  Him and shakir can play inside/out.  It helps a LOT if Diggs were to miss any time, or if we drafted someone and they struggled early or something.  Diggs was coming off the field more towards the end of the year last year, and while sherfield was probably a plus as a blocker he was mostly a minus as a WR.  

[Motorin']

31 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:

I just dont think he was really what this team needed.  They need to draft a WR high that can play on outside still.  So what is this 8 million a year really solving? 

 

Curtis Samuel is one of the best receivers at beating man coverage in the league. 

 

Guess what the Bills struggled with against good defenses? Beating man coverage. 

 

If you look at Mahomes stats, he gets around 1500 yards of production and 10 TD's per year from the bottom of his roster -- from receiver 7-15 (this is including all pass catchers). 

 

Josh needs MORE viable targets to throw the ball to. And more guys that can beat man coverage quickly.

 

 

[Draconator]

5 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

 

Inadequate.

But enough about you

[Chandler#81]

1 hour ago, Bangarang said:

 

His entire body of work maybe? Or is it the meth you're taking that makes you think a guy who's been a complementary piece on offense for the last 7 years is going to suddenly emerge and become a bonafide #2 guy? Do you also believe Mack Hollins is the replacement for Diggs as well?

Ha! No to the 2nd part, but he’ll replace a couple bums we signed recently. Has his ‘entire body of work’ included a star QB? No, so you don’t know what we can expect from a solid veteran experience with his 1st real opportunity to showcase all his skills with a superstar QB. Perhaps not a mythical #2, but 30-35 plays a game will boost his numbers and he’s worthy of it. 
Now excuse me. My new batch is boiling..

 

Edited March 15 by Chandler#81

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

2 minutes ago, Draconator said:

But enough about you

I'm sorry, Mrs. Samuel

 

[Success]

Even if we stood pat right now, we'd be better at receiver heading into '24 than we were last season.

 

What's cool about that is that we're not going to stand pat.  This has potential to be the best WR corps of JA's career to this point.

 

[SoCal Deek]

38 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Cole Beasley, with a dash of Emmanuel Sanders.  He's been playing mostly from the slot and is solid there, but his RB background makes him a harder RAC guy than Beasley was and he can play better than Beasley could when split out wide.  Probably less of a Football Savant than Beasley but I don't know on that.

 

 

Patience, Grasshopper.  Wait and see what the contract really is.

Yeah! I forgot about Emmanuel Sanders. That sounds about right. 

[TPS]

43 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Of recent BILLS receivers who would Samuel compare to? Gabe Davis? John Brown? Robert Woods? Or who? 

Good question. I seem to recall we had a WR who was this type of RB/WR hybrid but can't come up with the name?  He wasn't as talented but similar build, not as fast.

Could be I'm just old and thinking of someone not on the Bills...

[Bookie Man]

Blast from the past, but kind of reminds me of Josh Reed, but more explosive. Both were HS running backs. Similar builds, drafted in similar spots. 

[TPS]

2 minutes ago, TPS said:

Good question. I seem to recall we had a WR who was this type of RB/WR hybrid but can't come up with the name?  He wasn't as talented but similar build, not as fast.

Could be I'm just old and thinking of someone not on the Bills...

Found it on football reference--Josh Reed.   He was actually more talented than I remember.

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

49 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Of recent BILLS receivers who would Samuel compare to? Gabe Davis? John Brown? Robert Woods? Or who? 

Percy Harvin 

[The Red King]

Love this move.  Now draft a speed demon WR to stretch the field and with Allen's cannon arm he can suddenly threaten anywhere on the field.  Would be very tough to defend.

[Commish]

51 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Of recent BILLS receivers who would Samuel compare to? Gabe Davis? John Brown? Robert Woods? Or who? 

Percy Harvin at his peak, i.e. minus the injuries...

[Warriorspikes51]

Just now, The Red King said:

Love this move.  Now draft a speed demon WR to stretch the field and with Allen's cannon arm he can suddenly threaten anywhere on the field.  Would be very tough to defend.

 

 1 of these 4

 

Thomas  4.33  

Legette 4.39 

AD Mitchell 4.34

Worthy 4.21

[Prospector]

12 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

I'm sorry, Mrs. Samuel

 

I’m thinking you may be the goose in this scenario 

[Draconator]

12 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

I'm sorry, Mrs. Samuel

 

At least I'm $30 million richer. Think of all the blue cheese I can buy

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

6 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

 1 of these 4

 

Thomas  4.33  

Legette 4.39 

AD Mitchell 4.34

Worthy 4.21

I'd add Troy Franklin to the mix too, but with that list I feel comfortable waiting for 28 or even moving back a bit.

[NastyNateSoldiers]

10.7 yds a catch for his career I rather have Shakir on the field then Samuel . He's not explosive neither is he elite in any way shape or form. We needed a true X Wr but settled for another slot guy. 

 

Shakir averages 15.6 yds a catch and Samuel 9.9 I don't care what u say about the QBs . 80% of Wrs in the NFL can say the same thing. 

 

Here's a stat that will blow your mind Shakir had the same yds this season as Samuel on 45 less targets. Wow . 

[Prospector]

3 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

I'd add Troy Franklin to the mix too, but with that list I feel comfortable waiting for 28 or even moving back a bit.

I’m actually liking the Ladd McConkey pick now more. His release off the line and initial 10 yard burst in his routes is elite. If you watch his highlights, he’s the fastest off the snap and quickest up the field… add in that he reads the defense and finds pockets to catch the ball, this dude may be it for us

[SCBills]

19 minutes ago, Success said:

Even if we stood pat right now, we'd be better at receiver heading into '24 than we were last season.

 

What's cool about that is that we're not going to stand pat.  This has potential to be the best WR corps of JA's career to this point.

 

This is such an indictment of last years room, but I think you’re correct.

 

Diggs = Diggs

Shakir = Shakir

Samuel > Davis 

Hollins > Harty

 

Diggs is a year older, but Shakir entering Year 3 should be coming into his own.  Gabe Davis is a solid WR, but not what we need .. his skillset is just far too inconsistent and limited in the passing game.  Hollins isn’t anything amazing, but he is a big target down the field who is capable of making a few catches per game if you need him.

 

We’re an early round WR investment away from having a room with the potential to exceed the Diggs, Beasley, Sanders, Davis year. 

[ngbills]

It is okay if Samuel plays a Beasley type role for the Bills. I know many want to turn him into this #2 threat that is an upgrade over Davis and game changer. But that is not likely what this move is. Unless he breaks out after 7 years in the league and completely changes his game. Hey, that could happen I guess. 

[GASabresIUFan]

1 hour ago, BillsVet said:

 

Late-career Cam, the now-retired Bridgewater, and Sam Howell versus Josh Allen.  

 

Think Shakir's QB is the same as the aforementioned 3 QB's Samuel's played with.  As in, their production being similar is the comparison?  

 

If you do, then it's time to head back to the Sabres Board. 

Does the QB matter, but nearly as much as a player’s role in the offense.  Last season, Shakir, as out 4th WR/TE option equalled Samuel’s production on  50% of the targets.  Do you really think that Samuel will get 90+ targets in Buffalo like he did in Wash with Shakir, Kincaid and Diggs already in the offense? If you do I have a bridge to sell you in Brooklyn.  Everyone keeps saying with Josh as his QB his number will explode.  They won’t because his targets are likely to fall dramatically because he’s now at best the 4th best option instead of a top 2 or 3 option.  So could his YAC/R improve? Maybe.  Will his yards/r improve?  Maybe, but probably not significantly.  Even when playing with Brady as OC before his yards/r was 11.1 vs his career of 10.7.

 

So how many targets can Samuel expect in our offense?  As the 4th TE/WR option and during Josh’s tenure over the last 5 seasons, the 4th option averaged 54 catches a season.  The 3rd option averaged 66.  
 

So let’s give Samuel the benefit of the doubt.  In our offense, matching his career best in catch % (79) and yard/r (12.7), and getting 3rd option targets, we can hope for about 660 yards.  What is more likely is he’ll have about 54 targets, convert at near his career rate of 65.4% and gain near his career yards/r of 10.7 for a total of 378 yards.  Is that really worth $8 mill?  
 

The best case scenario for Samuel in this offense is that they move Shakir to the boundary, make Samuel the starting slot receiver and reduce Digg’s targets 30-40 from the 160 he’s averaged over the last 4 years.  Samuel would still be the 4th option but have a better chance of giving the Bills 600 yards.  However, Kincaid and Shakir will see more targets as well, especially when Brady begins to use Kincaid in a Kelce kind of role. 
 

I know people are excited about a big $ WR signing, but instead of whining at me for disagreeing with the group think that Samuel is the second coming, take some friggin time, research the stats, be honest about his potential role in the offense, and then do the math as I have.  

Edited March 15 by GASabresIUFan

[PrimeTime101]

11 minutes ago, ngbills said:

It is okay if Samuel plays a Beasley type role for the Bills. I know many want to turn him into this #2 threat that is an upgrade over Davis and game changer. But that is not likely what this move is. Unless he breaks out after 7 years in the league and completely changes his game. Hey, that could happen I guess. 

 

I get the comparison to Beasley... He's LIKE Beasley, but he will be able to do so many other things for you do to speed.  John Brown Like Bubble screen type stuff.. Lil Dirty type stuff... at times run out of the backfield. Catch out of the backfield.  He's also not a Debo... but he can do a lot more things.. So just comparing him to Beasley does not do this guy justice. 

[BigAl2526]

I hope the Bills can finagle enough money under the cap now to sign a starting caliber safety.  I like the signing.  Samuel has a bit higher drop ratio than I like, but he's got a broad skill set.  I think he can play inside or outside, and can be a gadget player as well.  His speed is probably the best on the team, though he and Isabella would probably have a pretty tight competition.  He can stretch the field in any case.  

 

 

[Warriorspikes51]