GASabresIUFan

Me thinks Worthy won't be enough to solve their WR issues.

Cook will definitely see more targets this year as an extension of the running game. When Brady was in Carolina, Mike Davis had 70 targets and RB group had 100. My first thought on Claypool is that he has no chance of being the WR3. However, when drafted he had very good speed. (4.42 40 and 1.52 10). For a man 6'4 240 that is really trucking. Assuming he has his head on straight and will gladly assumes any role given to him, I can see him and Coleman sharing the 3/4 roles much like Emmanuel and Davis did in 2021. That year Diggs had 164 targets, Beasley 112, Sanders 72, Knox 71, Davis 63 and Singletary 50. This season I can see a more even distribution between Shakir, Kincaid and Samuel of 100-120 targets each, with Cook, Claypool and Coleman receiving 60 + targets each. It's really up to Claypool for that scenario to come to pass. Tomlin let him go because of his inconsistency. He has struggled to get on the field the last two years, but at 25 years old and a minimum contract, he is a risk worth taking.

Here are PFF's 2023 grades (Yes, I know it's not the end all and be all, but at least it's an indication of where a player is at) Hyde 64.4 Poyer 73 Edwards 56.5 Rapp 56.4 Simmons 67.9 Jackson 58.6 Both Edwards and Rapp came in as starters to replace injured players on their teams last season and did fairly well. However, If I were Beane, the safety group is our worst position group and really could use another good player. I love the idea of using the June 1 savings on someone like Simmons. Having Simmons, with Rapp, Edwards and Bishop would create a huge competition for a starting job between the 4 and may the best players win. If Rapp and Edwards win the jobs, great! I'd feel much better knowing they earned their PT instead of having starting jobs handed to them.

I thought that was Grammar Hamlin. If Damar isn't going to make the team, the Bills should hire him in the organization as a community out-reach director.

Absolutely. On my man cave wall I have autographed photos of Marino, Montana, and Steve Largent to go with Joe Ferguson, Jack Kemp, Andre Reed and other Bills. The GOAT is the Goat. Having players you respect doesn’t diminish your affection for the Bills.

Actually that’s not what Beane did with Harty and Sherfield. Beane gave Sherfield a one year guaranteed contract at 1.77 and Harty a 2 yr 9 mill deal with 5 guaranteed. Both were given little to no competition to make the roster and both failed miserably. They were ill used by the OCs and performed lousy when called upon. Did you know Harty was the 13th highest paid Bill last year? This year the only FA WR guaranteed a roster spot is Samuel who has been a productive NFL player. Claypool, Hamler, Isabella, Cephus and even Hollins are guaranteed nothing. Hollins deal is for 2.6, but his dead cap is a manageable 1.1. As to Metcalf, Buffalo isn’t acquiring him. His base salary is 13 mill. Even with Tre’s money, Buffalo can’t afford him. I also doubt Beane would have an interest. Beane has stated time and again that this is a transition year. This year is about retooling while getting our financial house in order. Add Metclaf for 31 mill over the next two years just doesn’t fit with Beane’s stated plan. PS: I like Metcalf and think he’d do well with Josh. We simply can’t afford him.

I thought LB would be Beane most stable position depth chart this off-season. the 4 returnees all played well last season and IMHO looked to need not much help. Instead Beane added Morrow, then drafted Ulofoshio and then added even more depth in Deion Jones. Now we have 7 LBs who one can make an argument could (should?) make the team. If memory serves we only carried 5 last season. Why so many? I think there are 2 possible explanations besides simple camp depth. First, is Milano not recovering as well as they hoped. If this is the case, the signings of Morrow and Jones make sense. Second, is McD contemplating using more of a traditional 4-3 this season? If this is the case, carrying 6 LBs next season again makes sense. If Jones has a good camp, Spector won't last too long on the PS.

The NFL stands for Not For Long. 1. Van Pran - 10 year plus career+ 2. Bishop - 10 year career. Good safeties can easily play into their 30s 3. Coleman - receivers seem to burn out in their early 30s. 7-8 years After those 3, it’s hard a gauge 4. Carter - it will depend if he can develop into a starter. As a rotational player maybe 5-6 years, although Harrison Phillips is playing good ball since he left. 5. Davis - He plays out his rookie deal and then maybe plays a year or two elsewhere. Too much tread already off the tire. 6. Solomon and Ulofoshio. Odds are they don’t even play out their rookie deals. Ulofoshio is older and Solomon small for his position. 7. Hardy. Feels like the Andy Isabella of CBs. Lots of years on practice squads. 8. The two OTs. They won’t play a down in the NFL.

I’ve been arguing with the folks here who want us to add a name WR. They wanted Beane to acquire Aiyuk or Metcalf or OBJ or “insert the name of your favorite FA here.” I argued that given our budget constraints that Beane wasn’t going that route. He was finally going to develop and rely on our own receivers. He has to a certain extent. The starters are going to feature 3 internal guys in Coleman, Kincaid and Shakir all with two years or less of experience. Beane is Beane and he has signed 5 veteran receivers. One former Brady protege Curtis Samuel who brings vet experience, position flexibility and speed. He also brought in special teams ace Hollins who adds a big receiver to the WR group. The other 3 are still young former top prospects who for various reasons haven’t reached their potential. They are 1. Chase Claypool, 25. The former 2nd rd pick has 2 800+ yard seasons, but hasn’t found a good fit (bad attitude on his part?) the last two years. 2. Quintez Cephus, 26. Former 5th pick who had a solid rookie year but then injuries and a gambling suspension derailed a promising start. 3. KJ Hamler, 24. Speedy receiver and former 2nd rd pick whose career has been beset with major injuries but hopefully is now healthy. Beane is clearly throwing spaghetti at the wall and hoping one of these guys or rookie 5th rd pick (2023) Shorter sticks. I’d have preferred that Beane go GB style and draft more receivers, but for a team on a budget Beane’s is a reasonable approach. He’ll look like a genius if one of them really emerges and makes a contribution.

You can’t really include Rice for KC because he is going to jail. However, you need to add Worthy. I think you should add GB to your list and Houston.

That’s why Hollins was signed.

He is still RB2 until Davis shows he's better than he is in camp. Even if Davis wins the RB2, Johnson is making this team. Gore is going to have to do something extraordinary to beat him out. We kept 5 WRs last season, but I'm leaning more and more toward 6 this season. The top 3 are set in Shakir, Samuel and Coleman, but after that it's becoming more and more like a throw spaghetti at the wall and see what sticks. Hollins is making the team because of his special teams duties, but if Brady/Beane/McD are working toward a matchup offense each week, then I can see Hamler making the team as the speed threat and then one of Cephus, Claypool or Shorter also getting a shot as a power WR. If Claypool has a good camp, I see him winning that job. Hard to ignore a guy only 25 and had back to back 800 yard+ seasons.

Power is definitely on Beane's agenda. Whether Cephus or Claypool make the team isn't the issue. They are symptoms of a trend supported by the drafting of Coleman and Ray Davis and the signing of Hollins. Beane/McD/Brady want to be able to control the clock and beat people into submission if necessary. Someone else mentioned that Cook wore down late in the season. Cook also isn't a "physical" runner, but Ray Davis is. They also aren't ignoring speed. Samuel and Hamler are burners. Shakir and Cook are also fast. Seems to me that management wants a team where they can be flexible in their game plan to exploit holes in the defense. We'll go deep on teams the stack the box, run against teams playing nickel and dime, and throw short and medium passes on teams the play 2 deep zone. They are also trying to solve our issues in the redzone. They have gone bigger and stronger to be able to pound out yards without giving Josh a pounding.

https://www.niagara-gazette.com/sports/offseason-restructure-gives-the-bills-more-roster-battles-than-theyve-had-in-years/article_6427b6e0-08c0-11ef-b12b-9fb453dc3f54.html @LABILLBACKER Hollins is making the team. His dead cap is 1.1 million. He was signed to be a special teams ace and WR depth. Camp will determine whether he;ll be WR 4 or WR 5, but he’ll be active every week.

At 240 lbs, he’s probably eating everything on the table.

Congrats to the folks here who wanted more depth at WR. 8 receptions for 77 yards last year. Start printing the Super Bowl tickets.

Can't trust those Bama running backs. 😛

I have corrected the OP to properly reflect Jonathan & DeShawn Williams positions.

Safeties fixed. PS I used the positions listed on Spotrac. Williams is listed as a DE and Jonathan as a DT. It doesn’t really change much as Jonathan is likely to make to the team and Williams is in a huge camp battle.

I was looking at some of the projections of the 53 man roster from the Rochester paper and the Athletic and some interesting camp battles become clear from their articles. I think the roster looks something like this Offense: 24 players (8 of 11 starters return) QB - (2) Allen & Trubisky RB - (4) Cook, Davis, Johnson, & Gilliam PS: Gore Jr TE - (3) Kincaid, Knox, & Morris WR - (6) Shakir, Coleman, Samuel, Hollins, Shorter, Hamler PS: Shavers, Cephus, Isabella C - (2) McGovern & Van Pran Cut: Clapp (dead cap 287,500) OG - (3) Edwards, Torrence, Anderson OT - (4) Dawkins, Brown, Van Denmark, Collins PS: Grable, Clayton Cut: Doyle (dead cap 78391) Defense: 26 players (8 of 11 starters return) DT - (5) Oliver, Jones, Johnson, Carter & Williams PS: Ankou & Cline DE/Edge (5) Rousseau, Epenesa, Miller, Solomon & Jonathan PS/Cut: Toohill LB - (6) Milano, Bernard, Williams, Ulofoshio, Morrow, & Spector EDIT: Cut Jones? CB - (6) T Johnson, Douglas, Benford, Elam, Lewis & Ingram PS: Hardy S - (4) Rapp, Edwards, Bishops, Hamlin Sp -(4) Bass (PK), Punter, Ferguson (LS), Hamler/Hardy or someone else (KR) The Battles WR - Who will claim the last 2 spots - If I had to bet right now and if no other players are in the mix, I think management goes with Shorter and Hamler. Shorter has a dead cap hit of 243K. Hamler likely wins the PK job and therefore we keep 6 WRs instead of last year's 5 C/G - McGovern is penciled in a the starter at C after being the starter a G last year. If rookie Van Pran makes an impact in camp, I can see McGovern again going back to guard, sending Edwards to the bench. The other question is Clapp. His dead cap is 287.5K. OT - I don;t think they'll be much of a battle for the OT backup jobs, but it will be interesting to see if Collins (dead cap 1.5 million) has anything left and whether any of the kids are worth while. Defense DT - The top 4 are written in stone, but the 5th slot is up for grabs between Williams, Ankou and Cline. I'm going to Williams DE - Rookie Solomon is making the team as the 4th edge player. If we carry a 5th we should see a good battle between Jonathan and Toohill LB - The top 3 are written in stone, but I can see 6 LBs on the 53 man roster as they invest in Morrow (750k dead cap), drafted Ulofoshio and Spector looked solid in limited reps. I think they keep all 6 as someone will certainly steal Spector if cut and sent to the PS. Apparently we are adding a 7th LB to the mix in for pro-bowler Deion Jones. CB - Top 4 set in stone. Lewis' versatility also makes him a lock. The question is can Hardy and/or Ingram show enough to earn a job. S - Edwards and Rapp are the presumed starters, but I think Bishop has a good shot at unseating one of them. I also wonder if Beane brings in more help here and where does that leave Hamlin? Punter battle - Martin, Haack & a UDFA. I'm rooting for the kid.

@PBF81 You conveniently left out the 2 of the 4 players over 1000 yards were RB Mike Davis and WR Robbie Anderson. That was Davis' one good year in the NFL and while you dismiss Cook, I don't think you can argue that Davis is anywhere near the player Cook is. Shakir is probably at least as good as Anderson. What you also fail to acknowledge is that Shakir had 600+ yards on only 45 targets last season, averaging 15.7 yards per catch. Shakir had 17 explosive plays last year on only 45 targets which has one of the best ratios in the NFL (Diggs had 19 on 160 targets and Davis 21 of 81 targets). What is he going to do with 80 or 90 targets? Kincaid is much the same. Both guys, as the focal points of the offense, should increase their targets substantially and should approach 1000 yards if healthy. May I also point out that Cook, Shakir and Kincaid caught 80% of their targets, unlike Diggs, Davis, Harty and Sherfield; all of which are now gone. Personally, I'm not counting on Samuel giving us more than 650-700 yards. As to the rookie Coleman, he is almost certainly going to be a better rookie than Gabe Davis. Davis had 35 catches for 599 and 7TDs as a rookie. My guess is Coleman improves on those numbers. Another comparison for Coleman is Higgins (33rd in 2020) and Pittman (34th in 2020). Both guys are a similar size and speed to Coleman. Higgins had 900 yards and started immediately while Pittman had 500 yards and didn't start immediately. Using Davis, Pittman and Higgins as reference points, I think we'll see at least 700 yards and 7 TDs from Coleman next season. You asked about Samuel's 200 rushing yards. I expect Ray Davis to pick up that slack. He is a good pass catcher and blocker and I suspect we'll see him often next season as a 3rd down back. So the general answer is I fully expect the top 5 Bills skill players to all have 700 or more yards from scrimmage next season with Cook well over 1000 and Shakir and Kincaid knocking on that door.

Why does it matter? We are going to present defenses with a new set of challenges. Instead of just having to worry about Diggs, they are going to have to worry about 5 different players in Cook, Kincaid, Coleman, Shakir and Samuel. This will be one of those years where Josh can sit back and take what the defense gives and no longer have to feed Diggs. Each week we may see a different hot hand getting the targets depending on the holes in the defense. When Brady was in Carolina they had 4 players with over 1000 yards from scrimmage; 3 WRs and 1 RB. Their RBs had 100 targets in the passing game. Their top 3 WRs had 136, 118 and 97 targets and all that with trading McCaffery 3 games into the season and no TE worth a crap. The Bills last year only had 2 players with 1000+ yards from scrimmage.; Cook with 1567 and Diggs with 1188. The only other player over 700 yards was Davis. This season I expect all 5 guys I listed to exceed 700 scrimmage yards.

I think this is probably true. The 53 man roster is tough. The guys at or near the bottom of the roster must do two things. They must help on special teams and if they add a skill set to their position group the better.

ding, ding, ding. We have a winner! This is what I wrote in the leading receiver thread! The difference is I think they group will have more TDs than 19. Beane is playing moneyball with the receiving group and it's long overdue. There still seems to be some belief here that Beane is going to use his June 1 cap from White on an experienced receiver despite his repeated that he is going young and cheaper. SOrry folks but his big FA splurge was Samuel. Unless someone gets hurt or Coleman proves terrible in camp, I doubt Beane invests any more cap at WR.

by the way here are Diggs' rookie stats with the Vikings 52 catches on 84 targets (62%) for 720 yards (13.8 yards per catch) and 4 TDs. Shakir was an afterthought as a rookie, but here are his stats from last year 39 catches on 45 targets (86.7%) for 611 yards (15.7 yards per catch) and 2 TDs. In his young career Shakir's stats are 49 catches on 65 targets (75.4%) for 772 yards (15.8 yards per catch) and 3 TDs. Kind of looks alot like Diggs.