GASabresIUFan

by the way here are Diggs' rookie stats with the Vikings 52 catches on 84 targets (62%) for 720 yards (13.8 yards per catch) and 4 TDs. Shakir was an afterthought as a rookie, but here are his stats from last year 39 catches on 45 targets (86.7%) for 611 yards (15.7 yards per catch) and 2 TDs. In his young career Shakir's stats are 49 catches on 65 targets (75.4%) for 772 yards (15.8 yards per catch) and 3 TDs. Kind of looks alot like Diggs.

No one said Kincaid would be a deep threat. However your characterization of Shakir is completely wrong. Shakir had 17 explosive plays of 20 yards or more last season on just 45 targets. (Diggs had 19 explosive plays on 160 targets). He averaged 15.6+ yards per catch. I don't think separation and getting open or YAC was an issue for Shakir last season. From week 7 through the playoffs he was on pace for about 850 yards for the season. His number of explosive plays per reception was amongst the highest in the NFL last season. Don't forget we only targeted him 5 times in the first 6 weeks of the season. What would he have done last season if he had been integrated into the offense all season? In addition, Shakir is the about the same size and speed as the departed Diggs. This isn't to say he'll be a good as Diggs, but he doesn't have to be. He just as has to improve on last season. Considering he was only targeted by Josh 45 times in the regular season, what will he do with 80 or 90 targets? Also Kincaid was also on pace for approx. 850 yards from week 7 through the playoffs. He was only targeted 19 times in the first 6 weeks of the season. He was also a rookie last season. What will he do when he is fully integrated into the offense? By the way, unlike Diggs and Davis, Kincaid and Shakir (& Cook) all caught 80%+ of their targets last season. Davis was in the 54% area and Diggs after starting the year around 74% fell off to 62% from week 7 through the playoffs. Sure there are alot of question marks, but at some point you have to stop paying for other teams' castoffs and develop your own targets for Josh. Beane correctly bit the bullet and is sticking with the guys who actually caught their targets last season. I outlined in a different post that we don't need any of Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid or Coleman to be stars this season. All we need is for them to be consistent decent football and our WR/TE rooms will as good if not better than last year. PS we didn't have a deep threat last season either. Samuel is a burner but admittedly he's never been used in that role, but then again he's never played with a QB who could get him the ball deep consistently.

12-5 and at least the Conference Championship.

Correct, unless some receiver in the 5th round becomes Puca Nucua 2.0.

This is going to be the most dynamic offense the Bills have run with Josh Allen at the helm. People are lamenting the loss of Diggs. Don’t. He was becoming a burden to the success of the offense. The requirement to feed him the football harmed our ability to get more players involved in the offense. Shakir had only 5 targets in the first 6 weeks of the season and Kincaid only 19. Once they started to involve Kincaid and Shakir, Digg’s reception % fell from 74% (weeks 1-6) to 62% for the rest of the season. I don’t know if it was injury, sulking or something else, but the downturn in his play was significant and troubling. Beane has correctly decided that younger and cheaper is better going forward. He has also decided, correctly, not to replace Diggs. Instead he has decided to play “moneyball” with the Bills receiving group and make up the loss of Davis’ and Digg’s production in the aggregate by adding two players with needed skills to the two up and coming returning receivers (Shakir and Kincaid) and that is burner speed (Samuel) and a tough redzone/endzone target (Coleman), although I think Coleman’s presence will open space for Kincaid and Knox in that area. Instead of having one Prima Donna suck all the oxygen out of the room (Diggs), Josh is free to pass to whomever is open without worrying about some guy sulking on the sidelines. I’m looking forward to Josh targeting the guys who get open. I also think the combo of Cook and Davis is going to be a huge asset for the Bills. Both will be strong in the passing game, but both will help us run out the clock when needed. Teams that can throw the ball all over the place, but also grind out victories on the ground are a nightmare for DCs.

Where is this mythical receiver going to play and how much is he going to cost? Beane didn’t pay Samuel $8 mill to sit him. Shakir and Kincaid are your top returning players and Beane just drafted Coleman with his top pick. Those are the Bills top 4 receivers. I understand you want someone over Hollins in the WR room. However, how much O PT is the WR4 actually going to get as the 6th passing option (behind Cook) or 7th passing option (behind Cook & Knox)? 1-2 targets per game max? Unless someone gets hurt they may not even be active some weeks. No established player is coming here to fill that role and Beane isn’t going to pay someone else more than Hollins to fill the role. Hollins is an experienced vet who did step up and have a good year when someone got hurt. He is also a special teams ace and will dress every week because of it. Sorry but he is the WR 4 and is an upgrade on Sherfield. The battle in camp will be for WR5 between Shorter and NFL vets Isabella, Hamler and Cephus. I don’t expect the Bills to keep 6 WRs on the active roster. If I had to guess, Hamler wins the job and works with the rookie CB Hardy as the kick returners.

The average Josh season is 390 receptions on 590 attempts for 4400 yards snd 35 TDs Last year’s departed players caught 197 balls of 308 targets (64%), for 2300 yards and 17 TDs The returning players caught 186 balls on 234 targets (80%), for 1980 yards and 11 TDs Kincaid is the returning team leader in targets (91) and catches (73) for 673 yards. Shakir leads all returnees in yards per catch at 15.67%. Cook leads returnees in passing TD catches with 4. Using basic math, we have about 200 receptions to re-allocate across this roster. 1) Coleman - Davis, as a rookie was in the WR 3/4 role behind Beasley and Diggs, sharing PT with John Brown. He had 35 catches for 599 yards and 7 TDs. Imho, for Coleman, those numbers the minimum we should expect. I’m also not expecting 900 yards + from Coleman given the numerous other targets. Prediction, 42 catches for 700 yards and 8 TDs. 2) Samuel - Outside his breakout year in Carolina, Samuel has been worth about 650 yards on 60 catches with 4 TDs. I can see those numbers going up some, But, I’d be happy with that level of production. 3) Shakir - He had 611 yards on only 39 catches. He spent most of last year being the 3rd option and not even that until week 7. What’s he going to do when he is fully part of the offense? From week 7 through the playoffs, Shakir was on pace for an 850 yard season. I suspect Brady will give him twice as many targets this season (thus around 90) and be rewarded with 70 catches for around 1000 yards and at least 6 TDs. 4) Kincaid - Like Shakir he blossomed after week 6. He was also on a pace for about 850 yards from week 7 through the playoffs. I’m expecting further improvement this season. I think we’ll see 90 catches on 115 targets for 950 yards and 6 TDs 5) Cook - He had 1500 yards from scrimmage last season. Brady will feed him again this season. He has 44 of 54 receiving (445 yards) last year with 4 TDs. In Carolina in 2020, the RBs received over 100 targets. I can easily see Cook getting to 65 targets next season with 50 catches for 500 yards and 5 Tds. 6) Knox - I’m expecting a similar season to last year - 22/36 for 186 and 2 TDs 7) Hollins - He was 18/30 for 250 last year - That seems about right as well. Maybe he’ll score once here. That looks like a very exciting young group. Kincaid leads in catches, Shakir in yards, Coleman in TDs and Josh has his best season as a pro.

If you are a quality FA are you coming here to be the 6th and possibly the 7th receiving option behind Kincaid, Samuel, Shakir, Coleman, Cook and possibly Knox? I wouldn’t. If you are Beane, are you really going to invest a large amount of your limited cap space on a guy who would enter camp at the 6th or 7th receiving option after you invested in Hollins, plus you have a rookie draft pick in Shorter plus 2 guys with NFL experience in Cephus and Hamler already on your roster? I think it’s much more likely that Beane spends his cap on upgrading S. Adding someone like Simmons would have much more impact on the team than adding a 6th/7th receiving option Given what Beane did last season with Douglas and our extra 2nd and 4th in 2025, I’d expect Beane to acquire a quality receiver in trade if one of top 3 wide receivers went down with a long-term injury then spending money on a guy now and not really play him.

Other then injury replacements, do we really need any other receivers? Last season our WR 4 & WR 5 had 21 & 22 targets respectively. In 2022 WR 4 had 20 targets and WR 5-9 had 30 targets total. in 2021 Davis was WR 4 and had a banner year with 63 targets, McKenzie at WR 5 had 28. This coming season we already have 4 talented pass catchers and won't be relaying on the 4th WR to be Davis. If I had to guess Kincaid, Coleman, Samuel & Shakir will take the vast majority of the targets (70 to 110 each) with Cook as the 5th most likely target (about 50-60 targets). After them we have Knox who will see around 40 targets or more and Hollins who is perfectly capable of catching 30-40 balls as well if needed (he caught 57 w LVR in 2022). So what do we really need beyond those 7 players? That seems like more than enough depth for Josh. Shorter, Hamler, Cephus, and the rest of the cannon fodder are competing for the WR5 role, which is a nothing burger. Over the last 5 years, the WR5 has averaged 23 targets a season. Is this someone we are really worried about?

Did we draft a LB because there is some concern by management about Milano’s health?

in 2022, (the last season I could find stats on), NFL offenses lined up in the Shotgun 66% of the time. If someone has a Bills specific number please post it, but I'd bet it is close to the league number.

Absolutely, and the odds of any of the 7th rd WRs or a UDFA WR making an impact is very slight. I looked at the WRs who caught 1000 yards in a season at least once in the last 5 years. There was 53 who accomplished the feat at least once. Of those 53, there were 1 7th rounder (Edelman) and 2 UDFAs. (The Breakdown was 19 1sts, 15 2nds, 10 3rds, 1 4th, 5 5ths, 0 6ths, 1 7ths & 2 UDFAs).

First things first, Coleman was not the player I hoped we'd draft. I wanted Mitchell, because I think he is the better player and the negative comments about him are all BS. I keep reading in the media that Coleman is a replacement for Diggs. He's not, he is the replacement for Davis and IMHO he is a huge upgrade over Davis. Coleman is a good blocker as well. I still don't love the pick, let's call it a little separation anxiety, but there is no doubting his potential. All the posts about his gauntlet test and other speed measurables have made me feel much better about the selection. I also believed, do to their similarities physically, that Shakir was going to be the replacement for Diggs on the outside and not Samuel. I'm beginning to re-think that idea following the addition of Davis in the draft at RB and a recent article in the Athletic. The Davis addition brings another excellent pass receiver in the backfield to go with Cook and Johnson (who also catches well) limiting the need for Brady to utilize Samuel there. One other factor was Beane's statement that we need to stretch the field. Samuel is by far the fastest straight ahead WR on the roster (4.31 40 & 1.49 10). If Brady was going to use anyone to try to stretch the field it seems Samuel is the most likely candidate. The last factor was Shakir's work in the slot last year. Why take someone thriving in one position and make him a question mark in another? I'm going to re-phrase the OP question a little. Has Beane done enough at pass receiver (not just WR)? Our offseason needs were not to simply replace Davis and Diggs, but more importantly to add guys who could stretch the field and who could make contested catches, especially in the redzone and endzone. (Two areas Davis and Diggs failed last season). Beane brought in Brady friend Samuel to stretch the field and the big strong Coleman to make the contested catches. Both of these guys compliment the skill set of the Shakir and Kincaid. The other criticisms are the lack of WR depth after Coleman, Samuel and Shakir and that he didn't double dip at WR in the draft despite having 10 picks. Beane's response will be he signed Hollins as the 4th receiver and he is a significant upgrade on Sherfield (he is!). I'd also had, how many touches does the 6th or 7th receiving option get anyway. With Samuel, Shakir, Coleman, Kincaid, Knox, Cook and now Davis, how many targets will Hollins get anyway? Beane might also say, on not double dipping, is that we have Shorter from last year who is a rookie after sitting out all last year with an injury. As further depth, Beane will point to burners Isabella and Hamler and possession Cephus as three guys with NFL experience who are fighting for a possible roster spot. Would I like one more insurance policy in case of injury or other issues? Absolutely, but if went to camp as is, I wouldn't be to upset.

Actually he hit the highest speed in the gauntlet test over the last two years (20.36 MPH). Puca Nacua is second at 20.06. The NFL world is pissed that we "gave" Worthy to KC. But what people forget about Hill is his in game speed, not just his 40 speed. His 22.01 mph on a TD in week 5 this past season was the fastest recorded ball-carrier speed last season. As Coleman said in his presser, he doesn't remember ever getting caught from behind.

Our OLine coach apparently has been talking to Van Pran and believes he can cross train him to also be an effective guard. The reason he fell to the 5th was "short arm" BS. This kid was a a 3 year starter, team captain and anchor for a line on a team that won 2 national championships and only lost 2 games while Van Pran was a starter. He is very smart and durable. He allowed only 1 sack in 1300 pass plays during his career at UGA. This may sound silly, but he is known as the best shotgun snapper in this draft class. Seems like an important skill set in today's pass happy NFL.

No surprise. It had to be done by May 2. Good article today in the Athletic on why it was a no brainer.

There goes the myth that Beane only drafts defensive players. The truth about the draft is that teams are looking for two things. Broadly speaking teams are looking for eventual starters early and later they are looking for cheap roster depth. If a late pick becomes a starter (like Milano, Benford or Shakir) then all the better; just don't expect it. This year's draft can be broken down even further Picks 1 - 2 - starters sooner than later. Coleman starts day 1 and Bishop easily pushes for immediate PT and maybe beats out Edwards for a starting job. Picks 3 - 4 - Rotational players - Carter and Davis will get snaps this season. Davis could win the RB2 job. Pick 5 - Van Pran is an interesting case. Most prognosticators had him as a top 100 pick, yet we got him at 141. At worst he is depth this season, but he might be this class' Milano. I'm admittedly a little biased here, but he could win the starting C job in camp, and be Josh's C for the next decade. He reminds me of a better David Andrews, who was a UDFA out of Georgia with similar experience and leadership and he won the starters job in NE. Andrews has been the starter since 2015. Picks 6, 7 & 9 - D depth with upside. A Butkus Award finalist, the FBS leader in sacks and a small fast skilled cover corner. These are high motor guys who will fight for a roster spot, contribute on special teams and hopefully develop into rotational depth. Picks 8 & 10 - O Line projects. Both likely start on the practice squad and hang around for a few years to see if they develop (aka Doyle). Best case one becomes the next Wyatt Teller. If I had to guess on the future of this class, we get 3 starters (Coleman, Bishop and Van Pran), 2 guys that get a second contract and make an impact (Carter and Solomon), 1 guy who contributes but is allowed to walk when his contract ends (Davis), 1 guy who gets a chance at being the kick returner (Hardy) and 3 guys who make little to no impact.

Ask Harvey Weinstein. He used to produce such films in WNY.

Considering all the actual high character guys they just drafted, this is really a strange signing.

This is certainly close. On offense I don't think we can pencil in Grable or Shorter, especially if Beane signs the vet he has been working out. On defense I think Beane has created a battle for the 5th and final LB slot between Spector and Ulofoshio. I also think Hamlin makes the team. Hardy is an interesting question. I see him fighting Hamler for the kick returner slot.

In a typical draft class I am hoping for two potential starters and a few guys who contribute enough to earn a second contract. Anything more than that elevates the class to elite status. Anything less, the class disappoints. Take the last few Bills classes for example. 2023 (6 picks) - 2 immediate starters - Kincaid and Torrence. A contributor in Williams and maybe one in Shorter. 2022 (8 picks) - 4 starters - Cook, Bernard and late rd steals Shakir & Benford. 2 potential contributors in Elam and Spector 2021 (8 picks) - 2 starters - Rousseau and Brown. Basham played but was a bust. Hamlin was a contributor before his injury and Doyle is a still hanging around. 2020 (7 Picks) - 3 starters - Epenesa, Davis & Bass. 2 contributors in Moss and Dane Jackson. Hodgins is still also in the league 2022 is already a legendary class with 4 starters and if Elam finally develops he could be a 5th. For the 2024 class (10 picks) I see the following: 3 potential starters - Coleman, Bishop and Van Pran 2 early contributors - Davis and Carter 3 special teamers - Ulofoshio, Solomon and Hardy 2 projects - Grable and Clayton Odds are that after the top 5 players on this list, any production we get from the bottom 5 potentially turns a solid class into a good or even great one. For example, Solomon could become an elite situational pass rusher or one of Grable or Clayon develop into a Teller or Peters and become a long-term starter for the Bills.

I think the quality of this roster is about the same last year, but with more youth and therefore more upside. QB is Allen The RB room is better with Cook, Johnson and Davis The TEs are the same, except Kincaid is poised to become a bigger piece of the offense. The O line lost the aging Morse, but has better depth now with the addition of Van Pran who could challenge for a start job this season. I actually think the WR room is less proven but has significantly more upside. Don't forget that Diggs after week 6, Davis, Sherfield and Harty all sucked last year. Only Shakir's breakout saved the group from truly being terrible. I'm coming around on Coleman after reading his gauntlet drill speed (20 mph+) and I was astonished at Shakir's improvement last season, especially when the stats after week 6 showed that he was our most effective pass catcher in terms of yard (total), yard/att and explosive plays. On defense The DT's are the same in Jones and Oliver, but with better depth. The Edge rushers are possibly worse on paper because of the loss of Floyd, but could be better as Rousseau returns to his natural position and Miller is health again The LB room is as deep as it's ever been and has Milano back and ascending pros Benard and Williams The CB starters all return in Douglas, all-pro Taron Johnson and emerging star Benford The safeties are a question with Edwards and Rapp now starters, but Hyde and Poyer were not exactly what they once were and Beane added a possible starter in Bishop in the draft. I don't think people are saying that any longer with Collins, Dell and Dalton Schultz. I wonder how our friend Stef is going to feel playing 4th fiddle to those 3?

One other note about Keon. https://www.buffalobills.com/news/buffalo-bills-select-fsu-wr-keon-coleman-with-no-33-overall-pick-2024-nfl-draft The player 2nd on the list is Puca Nacua who hit 20.06. He seems to do ok last season despite running 4.57 at his pro day. Puka is 6'2 210

I don't think you can say that. All you can say is that the WR room is inexperienced. Also to only discuss the WR room is to ignore two other key players in the passing game Kincaid and Cook. I wonder how Packers fans and the media ranked the Packers WR/TE group entering last season that featured 6 1st and 2nd year players. That seemed to work out ok as they hauled in 255 catches for 3177 yards and 28 TDs, with no player having more than 96 targets or 793 yards. Talk about a balanced attack. David and Diggs are the past, and they stunk last year. Time to move forward with Samuel and the kids.

A Coleman Comparison Keon Coleman (Combine) 6'3", 213, 321/8 arm, 9 3/8 hand, 4.61 40, 1.54 10, 38 vertical (drafted 33rd in 2024) Tee Higgins (Pro day) 6'4", 216, 34 1/8 Arm, 9.25 hand; 4.54 40, 1.66 10, 31 Vertical (drafted 33rd in 2020) Michael Pittman (Combine) 6'4", 223, 32.5 arm, 9.25 hand, 4.52, 1.51 10, 36.5 vertical (drafted 34th in 2020) I would say Higgins and Pittman are pretty good comparisons to Coleman. Hopefully he'll be as effective in the NFL. As a rookie for Cinn, Higgins had 67 catches on 108 targets for 908 and 6 TDs. In the next 3 years (Tee was hurt much of this past season) he had about 2750 yards on 230 catches 18 TDS. Pittman had 40 catches on 61 targets as a rookie for 503 yards and a TD. In the 3 years since he has had over 3100 yards on nearly 300 catches with 14 TDS.