GASabresIUFan

We all know this happens. Belacheat spent years visiting UGA and Bama practices and talking to Smart and Sabban. There is no question that McBeane has relationships with certain coaches, but I still don't see them overweighting any particular team's players because of it. To me it looks like at best a tiebreaker on guys they have similar grades on. It also looks like some of these college coaches have lead the Bills astray, after all we took Shorter over Wicks and Nacua.

Defense depth is certainly a concern on the Dline and Safety, but ultimately contention will come down to can the Bills stay healthy. If they can keep the defense healthy for once, I believe the Bills, with their newly more dynamic offense, can contend.

I'm sure they talk to as many people as they can to get info on the players they are interested in, but, again, unlike Philly, there is no discernable pattern in their drafting. There is no bias to the SEC, ACC or BIG 10. There is no bias for any one particular school. Take Florida for example. Torrence was a Napier guy, but Shorter and Elam were Dan Mullen players. Elam never played for Napier (Napier's 1st season was 2022 and Elam was already a Bill). Shorter played for both coaches after transferring from Penn St. There also doesn't seem to be bias against any smaller programs. In fact, many of our best players or value draft picks come from historically smaller programs like Taron Johnson (Weber St), Josh Allen (Wyoming), Benford (Villanova), Brown (N. Iowa), Davis (C. Fla), and D Williams (Tulane).

There has to be a great deal of motivation for Beane to trade down this year. He was expecting a 3rd rd compensatory pick and he got screwed by the NFL. Now he has to find a way to replace that pick. Given the depth at WR, I can easily see a move down from 28 or from 60 to help replace that missing 3rd. He mentioned adding a ready to play DL in the draft. We also need a safety and a starting WR. Hard to get all that accomplished with only 2 top 100 picks. I know he said he doesn't want to trade the 2nd rd pick he acquired for Diggs, but that doesn't mean our 2nd rd or 3rd rd pick in 2025 isn't available. GB (5) and ARI (6) have a ton of top 100 picks. They could be perfect candidates to want to defer one of those selections to 2025. Last season Den traded to Sea a 2023 4th (108) and a 2024 3rd (81) for a 2023 3rd (83). Given our 2 4th rd picks in 2024 and 2 2nd rd picks in 2025, it seems to me it shouldn’t be to hard to get an extra 2nd or 3rd in 2024.

I think you are reading too much into his history. If we were in Philly and saw 3 Tide players and 6 Bulldawgs drafted early, then I think you'd be on to something. However, he has taken 15 players in the 1st 3 rounds and from 13 different school. Florida (Elam & Torrence) and Utah (Moss & Kincaid) have two top 3 rounds picks during Beane's tenure. Maybe those Gators are why we can't win the big game? I don't think he cares what school a kid played at as long as he fits the criteria he and the scouts set for that pick and he is the BPA on his draft board.

In simple terms, TP paid 1.4 for the Bills. If he gets $900 mill to $1 bill for the 25$ stake, he is essentially recovering 2/3 of his original investment, yet keeps 75%. Smart!

We called him AD at UGA for a reason.

I read the article and can see some merit to the argument, but then I look at where the best players are drafted and most of the time it early in the draft. I looked at WRs the other day and 53 WRs had 1000 yards in at least one season over the last 5 years. The draft breakdown was as follows: 1st rd - 19 2nd rd -15 3rd rd - 10 4th rd - 1 5th rd - 5 6th - 0 7th - 1 UDFA - 2 The scouts must be doing something right to get that distribution. It proves to me that good players can come from anywhere, but most good players are drafted early. Football is also weird. There are so many different positions and many different systems so a player may be a bust in Buffalo and flourish elsewhere. Now add injuries and character issues and I don’t think analytics will ever tell the whole story. I am a proponent of trading down and collecting more picks in the later rounds. In rounds 4-7, the more lottery tickets you have the more likely you’ll get lucky and uncover a Shakir, Milano or Benford. One limiting factor is roster spots. Where do you put all of these kids you want to develop? Put them on the practice squad and someone takes them. Put them on the active roster and their inexperience could weaken your team. I would like to see a small change in the practice squad. I think guys drafted prior to that football season can only be removed to another team through a trade or compensation. For example, we had 2 7th rd picks in 2023 on our PS. Both were grabbed by other teams. I think we should receive at least a 7th rd pick as compensation for those players.

Bold prediction; WR is the next position to see contract deflation. As we Bills fans now see, WRs have a limited shelf life. To much talent at that position coming out of college and to many good guys floating around free agency. Teams can likely afford one star pass catcher either at TE or WR, but the rest will likely rotate over time.

Isaac Guerendo. 6’ 220lbs. Ran a 4.33 40 at the combine. How many kids have you ever seen with that combo of size and speed?

Oh look another Prima Donna WR. Just what we don't need.

By the way there are 53 different Wideouts who caught 1000 yards worth of passes in a season in the last 5 years. Only Diggs was 1000+ all 5 years. They were drafted as follows top 10 - 8 11-20 - 5 21-32 - 6 (DJ Moore, Aiyuk, Hopkins, Jefferson, Ridley, Marq Brown) (1st rd 19 total) 2nd rd - 15 3rd rd - 10 4th rd - 1 (Amun-Ra St Brown) 5th rd - 5 (Diggs, Hill, Nacua, Mooney & Renfrow) 6th rd - 0 7th rd - 1 (Julian Edelman) UDFA - 2 (Adam Thielen & Robbie Anderson)

How many of these “franchise” WRs have won a Super Bowl? From the list in the OP, I think the answer is zero. The Bills are certainly looking for the best WR they can find in the draft, but it is not imperative that they get a “star” with their pick at 28 or 60. What they need is someone who can stretch the field and catch at least 65-70% of his opportunities. Brady’s offense is about spreading the ball around. Hard to double team one guy, if there are 4 guys on the field equally capable. The Bills already have 4 capable pass catchers in Kincaid, Shakir, Cook and Samuel. What they don’t have is a big WR with speed who can force defenses to be more spread out enabling Kincaid and Samuel to flourish underneath. I am excited to see what Shakir can do on the boundary. He had 17 explosive plays last season on just 45 targets. All we really need from the rookie is about 40-45 catches for 650 yards. Anything more than that is gravy. If he become a first year star along the lines of Jordan Addison or Jaylen Reed all the better. PS: I think the “hit” definition in the OP is much too limiting. A good draft pick is someone who becomes a starter and hopefully plays for a decade. We may be disappointed in Gabe Davis, but the guy caught 2700 yards over his 4 years with 27 TDs. That good production from any WR pick, much less a 4th rounder. Curtis Samuel has over 4000 yards from scrimmage over his 7 year career (2 years with limited PT due to injury). He was a very solid draft pick and is now the Bills starting slot receiver.

The Bills aren’t trading Elam. They didn’t extended Douglas for a reason. That reason, I believe, is that they want to see how Elam develops this season before writing him off. If Elam develops, Elam steps in for Douglas in 2025, if not they can re-sign Douglas, draft a replacement or sign someone else. That said, don’t be surprised if they draft someone in the 4th rd as insurance.

Whomever the Bills draft won’t have to be the “savior.” Between Kincaid, Cook, Samuel and Shakir, the Bills already have 4 good targets. Plus Knox and Hollins, who, while not primary targets, are perfectly capable of making 20-30 catches (or more in Knox’s case) next season. This means the cupboard is by no means bare. If the rookie WR proves capable, then so much the better. Right now we can put in ink Shakir, Samuel and Hollins as part of the WR room next season. This leaves 2-3 open jobs. I suspect Beane will carry 6 wideouts next season vs the 5 from last year. One job will go to the early rd WR pick. The other job(s) will go to whomever management likes between Shorter, (hopefully) another draft pick, Hamler, and/or Isabella.

With the 28th pick in the 2024 NFL draft the Buffalo Bills select …….

Rene Robert.

Rattler may have an NFL future, but he is no Pat Mahomes. Mahomes threw for 9705 yards with 77 TDs and only 25 picks his last two years in college as Texas Tech's starter.

There are always a few running backs that get shuffled down the draft board and then once they get the right opportunity in the pros they shine. Alvin Kamara was a 3rd rd pickin 2017. Kyren Williams was a 5th rd pick in 2022 and Zamir White was a 4th rd pick in 2022. LVR finally made White the starter and in the last 4 weeks he put up nearly 400 yards on 84 carries. Achane was a 3rd rd pick last season. Roschon Johnson was a 4th rd pick last year. There are a couple of bigger backs that seem like they could be available in the 4th or 5th rd I believe would make the Bills a better team. Isaac Guerendo is one of those guys. The guy is 6' 221 who ran a 4.33 at the combine.

He also didn't run as fast as people hoped.

The more I read about Josh and DIggs this seems like addition by subtraction. The Bills have a new OC, the Bills went 7-2 with that OC and a diminished role for Diggs. Josh was much better at spreading the ball around to Shakir, Kincaid and Cook who rewarded him by catching 80% of his throws as opposed to Davis and Diggs who caught 61% or less. The Bills also clear an expensive Prima Donna out of the locker-room. We may look back at the Diggs trade and call it Josh Freedom Day. Now Josh can literally scan the field and throw to who is open instead of force feeding Diggs to keep him happy. I wonder if the dropped ball against KC was the last straw for Diggs in Buffalo. People are justifiably worried about how we make up the 241 targets, 152 catches, 1926 yards and 15 TDs that walked out the door with Diggs and Davis. Add in Harty, Murray, Sherfield and Harris and you have another 67 Targets to re-allocate. I'd argue that this is a classic Moneyball situation where we'll make up for the loss in the aggregate. Josh targets a Receiver (TE, RB or WR) about 550 times per season. Next season Knox (36 targets), Kincaid (91), Shakir (45) and Ty Johnson (7) all should have expanded roles with Kincaid likely going form 90 to 120 targets and Shakir going as high as 85 or 90. Beane signs UFAs Samuel (92 tgts) and Hollins (30) and I can easily see them repeating those numbers in Buffalo. Now add a high draft pick at WR to the mix. Davis, as a rookie, was targeted about 65 times, and that seems like a reasonable place to start for a new player. Kincaid 91 --> 120 Shakir 45 --> 90 Samuel 92 --> 90 Rookie WR 0 --> 65 Cook 54 --> 60 Knox 36 --> 50 Hollins 30 --> 30 Johnson 7 --> 30 Others 6 --> 10 This allocation would actually decrease the throws to the receivers (from 330 to 280), but increase the usage of the TEs (from 130 to 170). This would be a much more balanced passing attack and make it much much harder to defenses to defend.

Trade Recap 4 trades 1. Buffalo Receives: 2024: Round 1, Pick 26 2024: Round 3, Pick 92 Tampa Bay Receives: 2024: Round 1, Pick 28 2024: Round 4, Pick 128 2024: Round 5, Pick 144 2024: Round 5, Pick 163 2. Buffalo Receives: 2024: Round 3, Pick 66 2024: Round 4, Pick 104 2024: Round 5, Pick 162 2024: Round 6, Pick 186 Arizona Receives: 2024: Round 2, Pick 60 2024: Round 4, Pick 133 2024: Round 5, Pick 160 2024: Round 7, Pick 248 3. Buffalo Receives: 2024: Round 4, Pick 108 2024: Round 5, Pick 157 Minnesota Receives: 2024: Round 4, Pick 104 2024: Round 6, Pick 200 4. Buffalo Receives: 2024: Round 5, Pick 165 2024: Round 6, Pick 218 Baltimore Receives: 2024: Round 5, Pick 162 My Selections 26 - Traded up a few slots to get Thomas as well as moving 3 later picks to get back into the 3rd rd Brian Thomas Jr. WR | LSU 66 - Traded down 6 slots to basically add a early 4th rd pick. Bralen Trice EDGE | Washington 92 - Tall Safety with good speed Calen Bullock S | USC 108 -Traded down from 104 to move pick 200 up 43 slots to 157 Mekhi Wingo DL | LSU 157 - Big Power back to compliment Cook and Johnson Isaac Guerendo RB | Louisville 165 - traded down from 160 to add a later pick (218) Christian Jones OT | Texas 186 - added a 2nd WR to add needed depth at WR - like Johnson's speed and hands Cornelius Johnson WR | Michigan 204 -Only original pick Delmar Glaze IOL | Maryland 218 - a very solid corner for this late in the draft Dwight McGlothern CB | Arkansas

I don't think so either. He looks like a 5/6 to me as well, but an injury opens the door for someone to step up.

I don’t disagree, but it shows the luck of the draft sometimes. Maybe Shorter becomes the breakout Bill this year, like Shakir last year.

The Bills drafted Shorter last year in the 5th rd. The next 2 WRs off the board were Donta Wicks and Puka Nacua. Oops!