GASabresIUFan

Where’s Kelso when we need him?

Fixed What will the experts say when Kincaid goes for 1000 yards, Shakir and Samuel add 700-800 yards each and Mitchell/McConkey add 600+ with a bunch of TDs? They says the Bills have one of the best young groups in the NFL. Beane's goal is to make us younger, faster, cheaper and more talented at the skill positions. Out with Diggs, Davis, Moss, Singletary and eventually Knox and in with Cook, Shakir, Kincaid, and later today a highly skilled boundary WR. My money is still on Mitchell, but I'm ok with Franklin or McConkey.

I agree with the trade downs, but I also don't like giving Mahomes Hill 2.0. That said, the Bills were never drafting Worthy and the odds favor KC getting him at 32 anyway. It was more important for the Bills to get an additional top 100 pick given our needs than worry about KC adding another weapon. The other truth is KC hasn't really hit on their most recent receivers. Skyy Moore hasn't yet to make an impact and Rice is on his way to prison. Which is why we were never going to draft him and why Texas went to Mitchell when they needed a big play.

The only issue is we could miss on any of the good receivers

I’m a little surprised how much of my little prediction is coming true. I agree that with 6 picks between 128 & 163, the Bills now have the ammo to add another top 100 pick. I like that McConkey and Mitchell are still on the board. When I mocked this scenario McConkey was the guy, but I’d take Mitchell at 33rd. I’m not sure I’d keep moving down at this point. I doubt Beane makes 11 selections in this draft. The deal I’d like to see now is a 3rd in 2025 plus two later picks in 2024 for mid 3rd in 2024.

Combine Numbers Diggs - 6' 195, 4.46 40, 1.53 10 yard split, 35" vertical - Athleticism score 69 Davis - 6'2" 216, 4.54 40, 1.56 10 yard split, 35" vertical - Athleticism score 63 Shakir - 6' 196, 4.43 40, 1.49 10 yard split, 34.5" vertical - Athleticism score 78 Samuel - 5'11" 196, 4.31 40, 1.49 10 yard split, 37" vertical - Athleticism score 89 Hollins - 6'4" 221, 4.53 40, 1.59 10 yard split, (no vertical) - Athleticism score 69 Shorter - 6'4 229, 4.55 40, 1.59 10 yard split, 35.5 vertical -Athleticism score 58 Thomas - 6'3" 209, 4.33 40, 1.5 10 yard split, 38.5 vertical - Athleticism score 92 Mitchell - 6'2" 205, 4.34 40, 1.52 10 yard split, 39.5 vertical - Athleticism score 91 Worthy - 6'2" 185, 4.21 40, 1.49 10 yard split, 41 vertical - Athleticism score 98 McConkey - 6' 186, 4.39, 1.52 10 yard split, 36 vertical - Athleticism score 90 Walker - 6'1.5". 4.36 40, 1.54 10 yard split, 40.5 vertical - Athleticism score 86 The Bottom line is that we have no receiver on the roster anywhere close to the combo of size and athleticism of the guys in this draft. We have guys with size and guys with speed, but nothing like what we are going to get early in this draft.

How many times did you see him play in person? I went to most of his games at UGA and YAC, separation, route running, and effort were never a problem. How much YAC do you get when you make great catches in the end zone. This kid might be a little raw, but he'll be a very good NFL player.

I’ve got nothing.

McConkey only lined up in the slot 25% of his college snaps if my memory serves. I’m a Dawg fan so I’m partial to Ladd, but I’m taking Mitchell above Ladd, Worthy, Coleman, Franklin or Legette. I love AD’s combo of size and speed. I also like his ability to make the big play, 11 TDs last year and 5 TDs in 5 CFP games.

I don’t think BPA exists early in an NFL draft. Does anyone really think the 3 QBs are the best players in this draft? Bowers and Harrison Jr are probably the best two players in this draft. The Bills aren’t drafting a LB, QB, TE or RB at 28 or 60 regardless of who is available. It seems to me that teams are looking for instant contributors in the first three rounds. Take the Bills draft last year when they went after their two areas of biggest need at TE and OG in the first two rounds. Where Beane’s list comes into play is who is available at 28 that fills one of his needs at Edge, WR or DT. If we miss a WR at 28, then I can almost guarantee we take one at 60.

Marvin Harrison- Chargers Rome Odunze- Jets (NY Giants screw the Jets and take Bowers with the 6th pick) Ladd McConkey- NE Brian Thomas- Jacksonville Xavier Worthy- KC Bills Pick: Mitchell

I'm Ok with that, but that only gets us half way to the goal. We'd still need another Top 100 pick.

Love Canal

The more I read and the more mock drafts I simulate on the net, the more I've come to the conclusion that Beane needs to acquire two more top 100 picks in order to meet the team's needs for a starting WR, and good rotational players (and possible 2025 starters) at S, DL and Edge. When I look at rankings and the mock drafts there is a tier of WRs from 28-45 (Mitchell, McConkey, Worthy, Coleman and Pearsall), a tier of safeties from 65-80 (Bullard, Nubin, Kinchens, Bishops and Bullock), a tier of DL from 50-70 (Jenkins, Orhorhoro, Hall, Smith & Fiske) and a tier of edge players 65-90 (Isaac, Braswell, Booker, Trice & Elliss). The Bills currently have picks 28 & 60 and then nothing until 128. There are also some Edge players at approx 28 (Robinson & Kneeland), WRs at 60ish (Legette, Polk, Corley, Wilson).. I also like WR Devontez Walker as a possible 3rd rd steal. There are 4 approaches to get the picks we need. 1) Trade down from 28. This should garner us a top 100 pick for just moving down a few slots. 2) Trade down from 60. To get a top 100 pick this way, we'll have to add one of our 4th rd picks. A deal might look like 60 and 133 for 65 & 94. 3) The 3rd method would be to package our 4th rd picks and additional 5th or 6th rd picks to move back into the late 3rd rd. Lastly, I can see Beane trading our 2nd or 3rd in 2025 plus a later pick in 2024 to get back into the 2nd or 3rd rd, especially with the Minn 2nd in hand. Depending of how the draft falls on Thursday, I'd trade down from 28 to 31 for SF's 3rd rd pick (94). The second move I'd make is trading our 3rd rd pick in 2025 and a 4th in 2024 (133) to Atl for pick 79. When I mocked this, I walked away with McConkey at 31, Fiske at 60, Ellis at 79 (we like Utah players after all ) and Bullock at 94. I then added Green (CB FSU) at 128, McCaffrey (WR Rice) at 144 and my sleeper Guerendo (RB Louisville) at 160. Thoughts on the strategy(s)?

We all know this happens. Belacheat spent years visiting UGA and Bama practices and talking to Smart and Sabban. There is no question that McBeane has relationships with certain coaches, but I still don't see them overweighting any particular team's players because of it. To me it looks like at best a tiebreaker on guys they have similar grades on. It also looks like some of these college coaches have lead the Bills astray, after all we took Shorter over Wicks and Nacua.

Defense depth is certainly a concern on the Dline and Safety, but ultimately contention will come down to can the Bills stay healthy. If they can keep the defense healthy for once, I believe the Bills, with their newly more dynamic offense, can contend.

I'm sure they talk to as many people as they can to get info on the players they are interested in, but, again, unlike Philly, there is no discernable pattern in their drafting. There is no bias to the SEC, ACC or BIG 10. There is no bias for any one particular school. Take Florida for example. Torrence was a Napier guy, but Shorter and Elam were Dan Mullen players. Elam never played for Napier (Napier's 1st season was 2022 and Elam was already a Bill). Shorter played for both coaches after transferring from Penn St. There also doesn't seem to be bias against any smaller programs. In fact, many of our best players or value draft picks come from historically smaller programs like Taron Johnson (Weber St), Josh Allen (Wyoming), Benford (Villanova), Brown (N. Iowa), Davis (C. Fla), and D Williams (Tulane).

There has to be a great deal of motivation for Beane to trade down this year. He was expecting a 3rd rd compensatory pick and he got screwed by the NFL. Now he has to find a way to replace that pick. Given the depth at WR, I can easily see a move down from 28 or from 60 to help replace that missing 3rd. He mentioned adding a ready to play DL in the draft. We also need a safety and a starting WR. Hard to get all that accomplished with only 2 top 100 picks. I know he said he doesn't want to trade the 2nd rd pick he acquired for Diggs, but that doesn't mean our 2nd rd or 3rd rd pick in 2025 isn't available. GB (5) and ARI (6) have a ton of top 100 picks. They could be perfect candidates to want to defer one of those selections to 2025. Last season Den traded to Sea a 2023 4th (108) and a 2024 3rd (81) for a 2023 3rd (83). Given our 2 4th rd picks in 2024 and 2 2nd rd picks in 2025, it seems to me it shouldn’t be to hard to get an extra 2nd or 3rd in 2024.

I think you are reading too much into his history. If we were in Philly and saw 3 Tide players and 6 Bulldawgs drafted early, then I think you'd be on to something. However, he has taken 15 players in the 1st 3 rounds and from 13 different school. Florida (Elam & Torrence) and Utah (Moss & Kincaid) have two top 3 rounds picks during Beane's tenure. Maybe those Gators are why we can't win the big game? I don't think he cares what school a kid played at as long as he fits the criteria he and the scouts set for that pick and he is the BPA on his draft board.

In simple terms, TP paid 1.4 for the Bills. If he gets $900 mill to $1 bill for the 25$ stake, he is essentially recovering 2/3 of his original investment, yet keeps 75%. Smart!

We called him AD at UGA for a reason.

I read the article and can see some merit to the argument, but then I look at where the best players are drafted and most of the time it early in the draft. I looked at WRs the other day and 53 WRs had 1000 yards in at least one season over the last 5 years. The draft breakdown was as follows: 1st rd - 19 2nd rd -15 3rd rd - 10 4th rd - 1 5th rd - 5 6th - 0 7th - 1 UDFA - 2 The scouts must be doing something right to get that distribution. It proves to me that good players can come from anywhere, but most good players are drafted early. Football is also weird. There are so many different positions and many different systems so a player may be a bust in Buffalo and flourish elsewhere. Now add injuries and character issues and I don’t think analytics will ever tell the whole story. I am a proponent of trading down and collecting more picks in the later rounds. In rounds 4-7, the more lottery tickets you have the more likely you’ll get lucky and uncover a Shakir, Milano or Benford. One limiting factor is roster spots. Where do you put all of these kids you want to develop? Put them on the practice squad and someone takes them. Put them on the active roster and their inexperience could weaken your team. I would like to see a small change in the practice squad. I think guys drafted prior to that football season can only be removed to another team through a trade or compensation. For example, we had 2 7th rd picks in 2023 on our PS. Both were grabbed by other teams. I think we should receive at least a 7th rd pick as compensation for those players.

Bold prediction; WR is the next position to see contract deflation. As we Bills fans now see, WRs have a limited shelf life. To much talent at that position coming out of college and to many good guys floating around free agency. Teams can likely afford one star pass catcher either at TE or WR, but the rest will likely rotate over time.

Isaac Guerendo. 6’ 220lbs. Ran a 4.33 40 at the combine. How many kids have you ever seen with that combo of size and speed?

Oh look another Prima Donna WR. Just what we don't need.