WhitewalkerInPhilly

While I think BTJ is likely a safer choice, if I am waiting to 28, I think Franklin is my guy. "But he's an X receiver" Yes, at least to start. He's slender and has some knocks. But the team's most consistent success came last year when they spread the ball around instead of force feeding Diggs. Between Kincaid, Shakir, Samuel and Cook the team already the players who can make tough contested catches over the middle, or dominate in the slot, or be a backfield run/pass option threat and can win a lot of one on one matchups that way. But if defenses compress coverage and the Bills have no reliable way to stretch the field, we get what we saw whenever Gabe wasn't clicking. If it's Franklin at 28, I'm happy. If it's Franklin at somwhere in the 30s I'll be over the moon.

Apparently he's hard to place. IIRC, he says Franklin could go anywhere from 1st to 3rd round. For me, the knocks on Franklin matter less considering his role: If the issue is that he's slight and less physical, that's ok because I'm imagining him immediately opening things up just running deep routes because you have Samuel, Kincaid and Cook for underneath.

The downside is that I believe that there is no "oh we will do the trade, but it doesn't go through until June 1st" Both teams would need to wait until after the draft, at which time trading Aiyuk may not make sense. Don't get me wrong, I'd love Aiyuk. With him I think the Bills can run their own version of the 49ers offense (Curtis and Cook and the poor man's Deebo and CMC, two starting caliber TEs, good FB in Gillam). But at this point everything carries risk.

And just...we have Khalil Shakir. We have a proven commodity, in the building, to fill the role Pearsall would provide. If we are to take a flier on a guy in late second I'd rather they take a gamble on Polk because at the very least he fills a different role. And if the Bills are passing on a WR at 28 or moving back I would absolutely look for Franklin, Mitchell, Worthy, McConkey, or Legette before Pearsall, easily.

Can someone tell me how Pearsall has suddenly shot up draft boards? He hasn't had the production of many of the others, doesn't have elite size and I was seeing him as back of 2nd -3rd round by most sites. Personally i would stay very far away. Another slot receiver? No thank you.

It's third on my list of priorities (WR, DB then EDGE) but in the mental tiers I'm constructing, Latu would fall firmly into "exceptional talent that you don't pass up if you get a sniff of" For the record, so far those tiers are: "Not gonna happen unless Beane bets the farm" "Go up and get him" "Exceptional talent that you don't pass up if you get a sniff of" "Nice bit of value if you stand pat, wouldn't mind an overreach" "Would be fine with at 28, would love in the mid-30s" "Move up in the second if you can" and "Hit those scouting reports, we're going value hunting"

I think Beane wants Thomas, but if he's not there Franklin is my choice. The "oh, he's too slight" is less of a concern in my mind knowing that you can stick him at X and dial up crazy combinations for Samuel, Shakir, Cook and Kincaid, and if they leave him alone he can win deep.

In my mind, there are five WRs who seem projected to be WR1s: Harrison, Oduze and Nabers sound like slam dunks. Brian Thomas has one year that shows that he could be. Adonai Mitchell has the physical gifts, but sounds like a project. After that? Everyone sounds like a situational piece. Now, is there a decent chance that one of those 5 is a bust, and we are talking about a gem that all the others teams missed? I'd say so. But it seems that if he misses out on Thomas, Beane want to be in position to have his favorite of the 2nd tier and have the ammo to take him somewhere in the 2nd round.

I mean, they should be. It's just that help can be had with people expected to go in the 2nd-3rd

I've been wondering about this. Granted, I think that if Beane has the ammunition to go up a few spots and get Brian Thomas (or perhaps higher) he might. But if Thomas is gone by the teens without getting a sniff, and Troy Franklin, Coleman, Mitchell, Legette AND Howard are all there at 28 they might kick back into the mid-30s to get a third.

Mourn what was. Mourn what could have been. And let's move on. We as fans have a much brighter future now.

Would it be crazy? Yes. Next question

Smart move, won't affect their comp picks 😝

I mean, if you are telling me that the Bills picks up Brian Thomas at 28 i would be asking if Beane broke a leg sprinting to the podium.

Wouldn't hate him at 28, would be stoked if Beane moves back into the mid 30s and gets him and a high third

I'll be honest, at the end last season when I started pouring over draft profiles, Franklin was the top of my "get a vertical X receiver" list. My only issue was "I don't think he's a WR1, can command the type of gravity that Diggs did in his prime" Had the plan been "Get an outside guy to stop double coverage on Diggs" I would have been thrilled with him at 28. If Beane has a plan to get a #1 I am all onboard. But I worry about him carrying the load. Peter Schrager gave him an endorsement the other night, and an insider shared that scouts really like him.

I am honestly thinking Brian Thomas is the right pick at the right spot. There are enough weapons out there (Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid, Cook) that not everything needs to flow through him immediately but looks pro ready enough to win 1 on 1 if against most #2 CB

Honestly, if there is a point where need meets position for Beane to move up for, at this point I think it's Thomas. He's got the size and speed, and the LSU pedigree for Brady. I'm not saying he's our guy come hell or high water. If someone snipes him at 15, the Bills are SOL. But if he makes it to the late teens or early 20s I think Beane does his best to work some magic. If not, seeing Mitchell comes to you. After that, sorry folks let's try Round 2.

I honestly think that the team could have gotten another good year out of him. If things don't look too rosy coming out of Houston and he wanted to come back I'd have him in a heartbeat as part of a cast. Just...on a reduced salary.

Yeah, but they'd still need to work out a contract in three weeks

Oof. Just saw his contract hit. We can't afford that without working out a new contract first.

Look, I know Bleacher Report isn't really serious, but their package for Aiyuk to the Bills is our 1st and a 5th. I just did a thing about how the Bills look like an excellent fit make a variation on what Shanahan is doing with the Niners. I would make that trade in a heartbeat.

This is probably going to sound heretical but...go light on the WRs. Hear me out: A lot of Brady's wrinkles were off of what Shanahan was running in San Fran. And ho boy, does Shanahan love his 21, 22 and 13 personnel. I mean, if I am going to look at the skill position players the Bills have right now that differentiate them (explosive or what is different from most NFL teams), this is what I come up with: James Cook (Use analogous to CMC) Curtis Samuel (a poor man's Deebo Samuel) Khalil Shakir (great hands, great separation, great YAC) Kincaid (great ability to get open, one of the more surehanded tight ends in the league) Gilliam (one of the better FBs in the league) The more I look, the more the remaining pieces look like what Shanahan has been doing. Maybe the skill pieces are not quite as good, but with Allen to make plays, I think the Bills could mow down the increasingly lighter defenses of the league. So, how would I construct the room, based on what the team has now and what I think they are likely to acquire? Curtis Samuel: starting Y receiver, can be used as moveable chess piece in slot of backfield Shakir: starting slot receiver, Y receiver on plays when Samuel is in the backfield Justin Shorter: starting X (weakside) receiver, pending a rookie fighting him for the job [Yet to be drafted high round rookie]: Competition for X receiver, ideally taking the job from Shorter [Yet to be drafted mid round rookie]/Isabella/Hollins/Thompson: fight out for depth and ST roles for 2 spots That would get the Bills 6 WR, with my ideal groupings of [high impact rookie], Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid, Cook as a base set, modified with swapping out Cook for Knox on obvious pass downs, and Kincaid for heavy run sets.

While I agree about needing another wideout, Brady does seem to be pulling from Shanahan and the man loves his multi-TE sets. The big knock I heard about the 12 and 21 personnel last year was "yeah, but it's not getting Shakir on the field" Diggs and Davis were your outside guys. Now? No Diggs and Davis. The big selling point on Curtis Samuel is that you can play him inside or outside or in the backfield on any given play. While I don't think that Kincaid is a true boundary CB he can do it in stretches. I am imagining something like this: do you remember that stupid little pop handoff in Week 18 that Miami was doing with Mostert and Achane in the backfield that was incredibly annoying until McDaniel forgot that it worked? Imagine Cook and Samuel in the backfield. Kincaid or Knox are in at TE, with Shakir overloading the strong side the slot. Presumably our freshly drafted X WR on the weakside. From that formation you can: A & B: Option handoff to whichever RB you think has the best matchup. (Cook or Samuel) C : Have Josh run it himself. D&E: play action pass to Cook or Samuel, with the other running their route F: Bootleg for Shakir and TE with Cook and Samuel as blockers G: Test their CB if our rookie WR gets a favorable 1 on 1 I am sure there are others, but that's a lot you can do with the same personnel matchups.

As best I can tell, that's accurate and is my biggest silver lining to this. I didn't want the move. I do not like the compensation. But it does put the team firmly in the black for 2025. I've talked about the window closing. I stand by that, at least for this year, but even if unpleasant I can stand by a year with lowered expectations. In the (I think reasonable) hypothetical that the Bills focus their 2nd-5th round picks this year on players who they think can be rotated in and will winnow out 2-4 starters a la Bernard in 2025 the team would have $27 M in cap space without restructuring Allen or cutting Von. They'd lose $13.4 for Groot's 5th year option, that I expect them to take, but that could be lowered with an extension. They'd have Shakir, Cook, Kincaid and presumably at least one more WR on rookie contracts, along with Samuel on a very reasonable one and the only potential loss on the O-line being Spencer Brown (who I think can be had for cheap unless he has a monster year). Most of the aging vets would be off the books by 2026 meaning that Beane would have the space to reinvest in Cook, Bernard, Shakir and Benford. (As an aside, apart from Elam that 2022 draft class is looking impressive right now) So while I am not thrilled at the move, I can see the plan.