Allen's completion percentage - Him, or Dorsey or the weapons

[FireChans]

Josh Allen currently has the highest completion percentage of his career, 74.8 percent.

 

For context, he had 1 game above that last season, and his second highest percentage was 68%.

 

In 2021, he had 3 games above that, including playoffs.

 

Is this the new Josh?  Has he and Dorsey gotten on the same page finally in regards to running the offense?  Is he benefiting from Cook and Kincaid and the gang?

 

What say you.

[NewEra]

Mostly Josh throwing short + a good amount of Dorsey + a splash of the playmakers.  

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

Mostly Josh throwing short + a good amount of Dorsey + a splash of the playmakers.  

I thought that too, but Josh has the second highest YPA of his career thus far.

[Warcodered]

Combination of the 3.

[NewEra]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

I thought that too, but Josh has the second highest YPA of his career thus far.

Interesting.  Anyone have access to a breakdown of his passes?  
 

I’d also really like to see the RAC difference this year as compared to last if anyone has it. 

[GoBills808]

want to say offensive line

 

and some pretty bad defenses

[Gugny]

12 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Josh Allen currently has the highest completion percentage of his career, 74.8 percent.

 

For context, he had 1 game above that last season, and his second highest percentage was 68%.

 

In 2021, he had 3 games above that, including playoffs.

 

Is this the new Josh?  Has he and Dorsey gotten on the same page finally in regards to running the offense?  Is he benefiting from Cook and Kincaid and the gang?

 

What say you.

Smart Josh is better than dumb (hero ball) Josh. 
 

This is something Andy Reid got across to Mahomes early on. 
 

It’s taken too long with McDermott - but better late than never (we hope). 

[Franco_92]

8 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Interesting.  Anyone have access to a breakdown of his passes?  
 

I’d also really like to see the RAC difference this year as compared to last if anyone has it. 

I don't have #s for you but before Miami our RAC actually was only marginally improved from last hear. But then we got LOADS of it in the Miami game, and not just from the Diggs TD

[Ralonzo]

Taking away Tua's first read seemed to work. Josh's first read is usually the longest developing route, touchdowns first right? Jets did that pretty well.

 

But, people are hinting at his reads not always being long-to-short these last 3 weeks. Sometimes it is... often it isn't. And because sometimes the deep read IS the primary, if it's there the shot will get taken. So YPA wouldn't be drastically diminished.

 

If that is the M.O. going forward God help opposing DC's because that breaks the whole shell paradigm. An offense that can effectively attack short, intermediate and deep, inside the numbers and outside, from under center, shotgun and play action, with various personnel packages, and runs the ball too? Seems like that would be a problem.

 

Now figure out how to run friggin' screens, you'll be immortal.

[Coach Tuesday]

9 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

want to say offensive line

 

and some pretty bad defenses

Yeah fixing the interior line so he’s able to step up and throw has done wonders for his mechanics, which started to really get away from him last season bc he was so jittery back there. 

[NewEra]

4 minutes ago, arcane said:

I don't have #s for you but before Miami our RAC actually was only marginally improved from last hear. But then we got LOADS of it in the Miami game, and not just from the Diggs TD

Yeah latavious and cook had some nice gainers.  Shak had a decent rac 1st down.  

[buffaloboyinATL]

D. All of the above. 
 

I think it is Josh finally deciding to take what the Defense gives him, and realizing that the team around him is so good, that we can dominate, without him having to do it all himself. 
 

it is currently just a blip on the radar, but if the Bills can sustain this style for awhile, this will be a fun season for all of us.  

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Yeah fixing the interior line so he’s able to step up and throw has done wonders for his mechanics, which started to really get away from him last season bc he was so jittery back there. 

Yeah he looks way more comfortable w protection this year so far

 

Have to think that plays as big a role as anything altho I do think Dorsey is doing a nice job giving him easy answers

[Reks Ryan]

I saw a random stat on ESPN after the Raiders game, that Allen was the first QB in history to have 3 games with an 80%+ completion rate and at least 3 TDs before the age of 30.   After the dominant performance against Miami he's now done it 4 times at the age of 27.  

 

For several years, Allen's been capable of blistering hot streaks where he's very accurate and nearly unstoppable.  His play style makes it difficult to keep up 74% game by game.    IMO he'll go through some ups & downs through the season and finish the year around 70%.    As long as he keeps producing TDs and limits the TO's it's OK if his complettion % dips from the currnent rate.

 

In addtion to the factors mentioned above, I think his improved pocket presence have helped completion % the last 3 weeks.  Less scrambling around and throws on the run or throw aways.

[billsfan89]

Josh Allen had a solid offensive line in 2020. Dawkins and D. Williams were a top 5 tackle pairing, Mitch was a top 5 center and the guard play was competent. Josh also had peak Cole Beasley being a reliable WR2. Josh's completion percentage that year was 69.3% and his INT ratio was 1.7%. 

 

The Bills in 2021 had offensive line issues most of the season and Cole Beasley regressed. Josh's completion percentage dropped to a good 63.3% but far from his elite 2020 percentage. Josh's INT ratio jumped to 2.3% as well. 

 

In 2021 the Bills reshuffled their offensive line, kicking D.Williams inside to guard and inserting Spencer Brown at RT and Bates at LG. They finally inserted Bates at LG in week 16 in 2021 and Josh having a really good offensive line and a solid WR core played 5 games of really good football despite throwing 3 INTs against the Falcons in a weird rainy game had a much better INT percentage at 1.66% in those 5 games and just crushed everyone until the 13 seconds game. 

 

2022 Josh had a terrible O-line, mediocre RB's and a group of pass catchers that outside of Diggs wasn't playing well. His completion percentage flatlined again at 63.3% and his INT rate went up a touch to 2.5%. 

 

This year after a rocky week 1 the offensive supporting cast is playing much better. Torrence and McGovern have changed the quality of the offensive line (Dawkins and Brown are playing much better too), the RB's are playing well and the supporting WR's around Diggs are playing their roles. As a result Josh has thrown 8 TD's to 1 INT and has a sub 1% percentage and has an insane completion percentage. 

 

TLDR: Josh since 2020 has always been Josh but the play around him makes the difference. Right now the players around Josh are playing well which is allowing Josh to be super human. 

Edited October 3, 2023 by billsfan89

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

He realized he lost the jets game for his team and teammates by being stupid.
 

He decided to stop being stupid. 
 

it’s really that simple. 

The short chain movers have ALWAYS been there

Nothing else changes that dramatically that quickly in this game. 

[Billy Claude]

Here is the data on air yards from Pro-Football-Reference.  Obviously the 2023 stats are based on only four games, three of which were blowouts that did not require too many long passes, however, the difference between Allen last year and this year is pretty stunning.

 

Air Yards Per Attempt

 

(2022)

#1 Mariotta  10.4

#2 Tagovailoa  9.5

#3 Allen 9.2

 

(2023)

#1 Love 10.2

#2 Tannehill 10.0

#3 Watson 9.5

#17 Allen 7.5

 

Completed Air Yards Per Completion

 

(2022)

#1 Tagovailoa  8.8

#2 Allen 7.5

#3 Mariotta 7.2

 

(2023)

#1 Garroppolo  7.8

#2 Love 7.5

#3 Stafford 7.4

#25 Allen 5.2

 

Yards After Catch per Completion

 

(2022)

#1 Garropolo 7.0

#2 Mahomes 6.6

#3 Z. Wilson 6.1

#32 Allen 4.6

 

(2023)

#1 Tagovailoa 6.4

#2 Richardson 6.2

#3 Stroud 6.1

#8 Allen 5.2

 

I think it is clear that from that from the beginning of the season, Dorsey wanted to put more emphasis on the short game but Allen didn't have the patience to keep that going initially.  

 

 

 

Edited October 3, 2023 by Billy Claude

[Ray Stonada]

It’s hitting the open man for 5 yards. That’s what makes the completion percentage so much higher and it adds more possibility of YAC.
 

It also means longer drives with more plays, tiring the defense who then miss tackles and give up even more YAC. 
 

But the line has to hold up for three seconds to let this happen. Been doing it well this happen. 

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

Josh and the weapons.

 

No dorsey

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Billy Claude said:

Here is the data on air yards from Pro-Football-Reference.  Obviously the 2023 stats are based on only four games, three of which were blowouts that did not require too many long passes, however, the difference between Allen last year and this year is pretty stunning.

 

Air Yards Per Attempt

 

(2022)

#1 Mariotta  10.4

#2 Tagovailoa  9.5

#3 Allen 9.2

 

(2023)

#1 Love 10.2

#2 Tannehill 10.0

#3 Watson 9.5

#17 Allen 7.5

 

Completed Air Yards Per Completion

 

(2022)

#1 Tagovailoa  8.8

#2 Allen 7.5

#3 Mariotta 7.2

 

(2023)

#1 Garroppolo  7.8

#2 Love 7.5

#3 Stafford 7.4

#25 Allen 5.2

 

Yards After Catch per Completion

 

(2022)

#1 Garropolo 7.0

#2 Mahomes 6.6

#3 Z. Wilson 6.1

#32 Allen 4.6

 

(2023)

#1 Tagovailoa 6.4

#2 Richardson 6.2

#3 Stroud 6.1

#8 Allen 5.2

 

I think it is clear that from that from the beginning of the season, Dorsey wanted to put more emphasis on the short game but Allen didn't have the patience to keep that going initially.  

 

 

 

@NewEra this is what you were looking for and you were right.

[Mango]

3 hours ago, FireChans said:

I thought that too, but Josh has the second highest YPA of his career thus far.

I think YAC is up. Not to combined two topics but I think part of it is just spreading the ball out more. It forces the defense to leave more open space and respect everybody. Josh, Dorsey, and Personnel are all pieces of that pie. 
 

I’ve been pounding the table on this board to spread the ball out. I’m just thrilled it’s happening!

 

 

[Chaos]

Allen was brilliant the last three seasons.  Then he injured his UCL.  Then he had one bad game this year (with a 70% plus completion rate).  Now he brilliant again.  But now his brilliance is supported by a good oline, a much better running game, and a game plan using more play action.   Same brilliant top 2 QB play, with a much better cast around him.   

Edited October 4, 2023 by Chaos

[DapperCam]

2 hours ago, Billy Claude said:

Here is the data on air yards from Pro-Football-Reference.  Obviously the 2023 stats are based on only four games, three of which were blowouts that did not require too many long passes, however, the difference between Allen last year and this year is pretty stunning.

 

Air Yards Per Attempt

 

(2022)

#1 Mariotta  10.4

#2 Tagovailoa  9.5

#3 Allen 9.2

 

(2023)

#1 Love 10.2

#2 Tannehill 10.0

#3 Watson 9.5

#17 Allen 7.5

 

Completed Air Yards Per Completion

 

(2022)

#1 Tagovailoa  8.8

#2 Allen 7.5

#3 Mariotta 7.2

 

(2023)

#1 Garroppolo  7.8

#2 Love 7.5

#3 Stafford 7.4

#25 Allen 5.2

 

Yards After Catch per Completion

 

(2022)

#1 Garropolo 7.0

#2 Mahomes 6.6

#3 Z. Wilson 6.1

#32 Allen 4.6

 

(2023)

#1 Tagovailoa 6.4

#2 Richardson 6.2

#3 Stroud 6.1

#8 Allen 5.2

 

I think it is clear that from that from the beginning of the season, Dorsey wanted to put more emphasis on the short game but Allen didn't have the patience to keep that going initially.  

 

 

 

This pretty much nails it. Shorter passes have a higher likelihood of being completed.

 

Rather than throwing deep every single time Diggs or Davis has single coverage, regardless of the game situation like last year (sort of an exaggeration, but not much of one), we are passing it 4-7 yards down the field and hoping for YAC. 

[wettlaufer]

4 hours ago, FireChans said:

I thought that too, but Josh has the second highest YPA of his career thus far.

YAC this year feels far above any prior year in the JA era. 

[gonzo1105]

He’s playing within himself, taking what the defense is giving him and making the easy throw the last 3 weeks. When he does that it opens up bigger plays Down the field. It needs to be impounded in his brain every week 

[GreggTX]

Mostly Josh. I think that Jets game was a blessing in disguise. He learned from it. I saw only 1 bad or questionable decision Sunday. He threw long into double coverage when there was a man wide open right in front of him. In Josh's defense though, 11 should caught it. Or was it 16? Well you know the play. He only threw 4 incompletions all day.

[Buffalo Junction]

Allen trusting the supporting cast. We notice the backs and Kincaid the most in the equation. However, the biggest change is Allen trusting the interior line. He didn’t in preseason or the Jets game even when they were holding up. Now that he’s trusting them he’s climbing the pocket and allowing Dawkins and Brown to run ends around the loop then escaping through the C and D gaps, pressing the LOS - forcing defensive players to commit - and throwing easy completions with space for YAC. Best example of this from the Fish game is the pass to Cook on the sideline, but it happened several other times as well.
 

If you go back and look at prime Rodgers and peak Mahomes it is similar. The best plays come when the tackles can ride DEs in a loop and the interior holds up so they can escape out of the C and D gaps. Go back and watch some Rodgers tape with Sitton and Lang at guard and you’ll see the same efficiency. 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

46 minutes ago, wettlaufer said:

YAC this year feels far above any prior year in the JA era. 

Get the ball out fast and let knox get on angry runs.  let Diggs break two tackles. 
 

Allen might have the best arm in the history of the game
 

if he can play team ball he could obliterate the record book .   He can surpass Brady 

Edited October 4, 2023 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[BigAl2526]

Hmmm, him, Dorsey or weapons?   Yes, though you might also include better protection from his offensive line.  Is there one of those four factors that is more important that the others?  If there is, it is probably Allen's newly developed willingness to look for a short passing option.  It's not the first time that lip service has been given to reading the defense from short to long rather than long to short,  It happened under Daboll too, but Allen seems to have fully embraced it now.

[34-78-83]

Yes

[Nephilim17]

The o-line, as mentioned, helps a lot.

But I wonder if the bad Jets-game performance was a come to Jesus (insert your idol/god here: Yahweh, Muhammad, Cthulhu, etc. here) moment.

 

He was riding high in the off season dating a Hollywood actor (sorry, I don't like the "actress" thing; do you say "poetess"?) and on the cover of Madden. And, apparently, he was caught on film saying he was the "best athlete in the world." His ego was sky high this summer.

 

After a crap game of unintelligent hero ball someone — maybe McDermott but possibly Stef or someone else like his dad — could have sat down with him and said something like: "Look, you're a generational QB and when you play smart you can be a Hall of Fame QB — but when you play like you do today, you have bad stats and you lose to QBs like Zach Wilson. What do you want to do? Be a winner and let the stats take care of themselves, or lose a lot to the Zach Wilsons of the league?"

Maybe I'm full of ***** but since that debacle he has since bought in 100% to playing "boring" ball and his stats, wins, and reputation have all skyrocketed.

[EmotionallyUnstable]

More of his footballs being thrown are being caught. Thus, a higher completion percentage. 
 

I jest…but in all seriousness, does it matter? take a look at anyone currently over 70%

 

Buffalo

Baltimore

San Fran

Miami

LA

Dallas

Arizona
 

The bolded teams aren’t exactly considered high octane offenses, but they complete a lot of passes. 
 

At the same time, the other 5 are the highest scoring offenses in the NFL. 
 

It’s a nice statistic, and I do believe it speaks a bit to all the items you referenced (specifically efficiency) but at the end of the day, you have to score points. No Ravens (12th) or Cardinals (18th) fans are content because they’re in the upper tier of completion %.

 

If this number drops to 60%, I’m not sure it’ll bug me that much. Picture KC: they’re the 20th ranked completion % but have the 9th highest scoring offense. 
 

It’s all relative. 

[Dr.Sack]

I’m noticing the ball is coming out early, on time, and with better accuracy, allowing guys to catch and make a move upfield. It’s good stuff.

[BillsGuyOutWest]

Close your eyes and imagine you are watching any patriots / bills game from about 2006-2017. The patriots are in the most boring 21 personnel grouping. They are not looking overwhelmingly fast, yet they somehow keep scoring.
 

The  bills are in fact getting some pressure on Brady. Kyle Williams is trying his damndest, but it’s “take a step, release, 7 yards”, “slide over, release 6 yards”.  Hand off and running back picks up 4 yards. And the cycle repeats.
 

Up and down the field, you have no idea how it’s happening but they always seem to be in the red zone. Once about every 20 plays, the bills disrupt the timing just enough and Brady slides for a second and calmly throws the ball away before adjusting his face mask and screaming at an offensive lineman. Maybe he takes a sack every 30 plays, but then on the next play looks off a safety, hits one for 13 yards and a first down anyway. You curse the gods and wonder, when just when is it going to be our turn with QB and offense that efficient.  
 

Now it’s back to present day. You have pretty much that exact same offense, which Daboll brought here from his time in NE, but this year you have the right personnel (2 legit TEs, smart RBs who aren’t anything fancy, but run straight ahead and can catch), plus  a QB who finally understands (so far this year after week 1) to be patient enough to run it correctly. 
 

Finally, you also have a QB on pace to have a *higher* completion percentage compared to peak Brady, because instead of having to throw the ball away on those pressures he can either rocket it into an impossibly small window across the field or makes those windows a bit bigger each play due to the constant threat take off running for 45 yards. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

If he keeps it up you have to praise Dorsey. But we’ll see if he keeps it up.

 

One thing about the short passing game improvements is when the weather turns Allen should still be able to complete these at a high rate.

Edited October 4, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[billsbackto81]

Josh's commitment to the new scheme and not forcing the big play. Taking what the D is giving. Also, lets give some love to the new and improved Guard O Line play which has allowed Josh to work under center and open up the run game. 

[MJS]

7 hours ago, JakeFrommStateFarm said:

Josh and the weapons.

 

No dorsey

The delusional hate for Dorsey is reaching imbecilic levels now.

[Matt_In_NH]

Defenses play the qbs like Allen with a 2 high shell.   The counter to that is short passes which are easier to complete.  This year Allen is taking the short throws.   His air yards are down and yac is up.  It’s all related.  

[eball]

2 hours ago, MJS said:

The delusional hate for Dorsey is reaching imbecilic levels now.

 

Just like the delusional hate for McD, and Gabe Davis, and Ed Oliver, and [etc., etc., etc.].

 

A large part of the fan base has forgotten how to simply enjoy football and root for an excellent team.  I don’t know what is wrong with these people.

 

Only one team wins the Super Bowl each year.  The fact that for the foreseeable future we are one of the teams in that conversation should be something every Bills fan relishes and celebrates.  But they don’t.

 

I get it that people like to analyze and critique the game and have their own perspective…but none of us can control one damn thing.

 

To each his (or her) own.  I’m enjoying the hell out of this run.

 

Go Bills!

19 and 1, babyyyyyyyyy!

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Agree with almost all the comments above.

 

What is it about the Jets that gives Allen issues?
Conversely what is it about Miami that he owns them?