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Billy Claude

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  1. Luckily the coaching staff does not agree with the there's nothing to worry about attitude. That attitude gets you eliminated early on the playoffs. I am almost certain that cleaning up the sloppy turnovers will be a main focus of the coaching staff over the bye week. They have already started addressing the short yardage issues by bringing back the qb sneak. Who knows? They might even be trying to figure out how to cut down on tip passes.
  2. Very short memories on the board. Elam himself said he had an F- game against the Steelers which was only a week and a half ago. Right now Gardner is the DROY favorite at +300 with Devin Lloyd (JAC) and Kayvon Thibodeaux (NYG) at +600 and Tariq Woolen at +800. Elam is tied for 11th best odds at +2500. There are 3 CBs (Gardner, Woolen and Jack Jones (NE)) and one safety with better (Jalen Pitre (TEX)) better odds than Elam.
  3. In Gaelic football, it actually works the other way, 3 points below the crossbar (a goal) and 1 point (a point) above the crossbar. The goal posts are taken to extend upwards forever. They only use cameras to decide on whether a point is scored -- not goals. Actually FGs would be more exciting if the NFL gave more points for lower field goals. That would increase the probability of a FG being blocked and require much more precision and touch from the kicker.
  4. In Gaelic football it is only used to decide if a point is scored, that is if a ball crosses above the crossbar and between the goalposts. It would be similar to deciding whether a field goal is good or not.
  5. Mahomes only started one game in 2017 so the record is 24-13 not 26-14. This is just for the sake of accuracy since the record is still obviously is still very good and does not hurt your argument. Yes, I already noted in my original post that if you take out the 2020 season, the Bills would get much worse. I just thought that it was interesting that most of the KC amazing record came from one season. As I said in my follow up post to your response, I am sympathetic to your argument. The other data you present certainly indicates the Bills are not as good as they should be in these situations. I feel that the Bills bad record in close games is due to a large extend on their inability to convert on short yardage (worse in the NFL). In both the Steelers and Jags game, if they had been able to convert on one of multiple short yardage situations they would probably have won the game. I don't think this is a random thing and was a direct result of trying to go cheap on the Oline.
  6. I thought we were comparing coaches not QBs and Alex Smith was not a bad QB. I am somewhat sympathetic to your argument since I feel the Bills short yardage issues contributed a large part to losing the close games last year.
  7. KC being 26-12 in close games does not seem right so I went back and checked the numbers. Counting any game decided by 8 or less as close, I find that KC is 26-18 in close games since the 2017 season. If you include playoffs they would be 28-21. So KC has been very good in close games but not as good as you claim. Perhaps it was a typo? The regular season corresponds to 59% win rate in close games versus 73% overall. However, a bit closer dive into the data shows that almost all the difference occurred in 2020 when they went an extraordinary 8-1. If you don't include that year they are 18-17 so basically 500 in close games. Of course, if you don't include 2020, the Bills record in close games would also get much worse. I think the conclusion is that teams that are win over a long period of time is because they win a lot of blow outs, not because they win an extraordinary number of close games. Of course, on a single season basis, being lucky may be enough such as with the Bengals last year. For people who are interested, this is the data KC by year, close game record + overall record 2017 3-5 (10-6) 2018 5-4 (12-4) 2019 5-4 (12-4) 2020 8-1 (12-4) 2021 4-3 (11-5) 2022 1-1 (3-1)
  8. If you count a first for Diggs you also need to count a third for Kelvin Benjamin as a day 2 investment.
  9. Thanks for the clarification. Seems much more reasonable.
  10. A 33-23 record when trailing at the end of the 3rd is not likely since I would guess 85-90% of the time, the team winning after 3 quarters wins the game. I like data so I was curious what the actual record is. Here is the Bills' record under McDermott when trailing, tied, and leading after 3 quarters: TOTAL trailing 4 - 25 (0.139) tie 4 - 2 (0.667) leading 44 - 6 (0.880) Here is the breakdown by year: 2017 trailing 0 - 6 tie none leading 9 - 1 (L = CIN) 2018 trailing 1-9 (W = DET) tie 1 -0 ( W = JAC) leading 4-1 (L = NYJ) 2019 trailing 3-4 (W = NYJ, MIA, PIT) tie 1-1 (W = TEN, L=NYJ) leading 6 - 1 (L = NE) 2020 trailing 0-3 tie 1-0 (W = NE) leading 12 - 0 2021 trailing 0 - 3 tie 0 - 1 (L=JAC) leading 11-2 (L = PIT, TEN) 2022 trailing none tie 1 - 0 (W = BAL) leading 2 - 1 (L = MIA)
  11. Definitely a made up stat. The Bills are 52-33, not counting playoffs under McDermott. If they went 33-23 that means 60% of their wins came when trailing at the beginning of the 4th.
  12. They definitely use to be able to do it. I couldn't find the data for 2020 but In 2018 and 2019 Allen was 23 out of 24 QB sneaks which was the best in the NFL https://billswire.usatoday.com/2020/06/08/pro-football-focus-josh-allen-qb-sneak/ This was behind Russell Bodine and Ryan Groy as center in 2018 and Mitch Morse in 2019. One hopes that this season's O-line is better than the 2018 o-line. That season Vlad Ducasse was the Bills' highest rated interior lineman according to PFF. Also the refs/NFL is out to get us.
  13. How is this any different from this board after a lost?
  14. Encouraging losses are only for teams in rebuild mode (i.e., the previous lost against Miami in Allen's first year), but I agree that this lost is not discouraging, as long as any injuries are not serious and they bounce back next week. At least it puts to bed all that 17-0 nonsense.
  15. They seem to be scared of calling QB sneaks since last year's Titans game. Weird, since I think Allen was something like 29 out of 30 before that. I personally was hoping for three QB sneaks in a row, if necessary, at the end of the game.
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