Is the AFC East being overhyped this year?

[Success]

We're all expecting it to be the toughest division in football - that's the national narrative, and I think most of us have felt that way.  But I'm starting to get 2022 AFC West vibes.

 

1) The Jets won 7 games last year.  The conventional wisdom is that they were "just a quarterback away" from contending. But 7 wins is 7 wins.  They added a 40-year-old QB, who - though great - will be behind the worst line in the division.

 

2) Miami gave us a tough time last year - but we win the 1st one if it wasn't played in extreme heat, with the visitor sideline getting the brunt of it.  We were up 17-0 in the playoff game and really beat ourselves to make it close.  The only other good team they beat in 2022 was the Ravens. They ended up w/ 9 wins. 

 

3) As for the Pats, they were bad last year. There is a media narrative that's starting to take hold that they're being overlooked & underestimated - but they have 2 elite players in Judon and Stevenson, and added very little in the offseason to move the needle.  I'm not seeing a team that will break .500 this year.

 

Maybe this is all just homer rationalization - but I still think the Bills are king in this division, and that it won't be a particularly close race as we get into December. 

[Gregg]

It will be a three-way fight for the division. Miami has a good roster but can Tua stay healthy is the big question. Even if he can't Mike White is a decent backup that could help them win games. The Jets D is good, and Rodgers is a big upgrade over Wilson, White, and Flacco. Last year both games against them were tough. Expect the same thing this year. The Bills are the favorite in the division, but it won't be easy.

[Virgil]

3 of the 4 teams are legit playoff contenders.  The AFC East and AFC North are stacked.  If the Broncos figure it out, so is the AFC West.  There is no overhype.  
 

The Jaguars are have a gift playing in the south and the NFC has 2 contenders with a bunch of hopefuls 

[MJS]

Yes. These teams need to go out and prove it. The only team to show they are a superbowl contender so far is the Bills.

[BuffaloBillyG]

I think the thing the media forgets is this. Yes, on paper the Jets and Dolphins got better. And both teams gave the Bills trouble last year. But they also play each other two times which should be dog fights. You don't hear about that at all.

 

New England...while not on the same level now has a real offensive coordinator that will make a difference. BOB isn't a great GM, but he can call an offense and do it much more competently that Matt Patricia. They should be a tougher out as well. 

 

There is a good chance that these teams all split with each other as well. I could see each of them at 3-3 in the division. I think Buffalo splits with Miami and Jets, but sweeps NE. 

[Gregg]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

I think the thing the media forgets is this. Yes, on paper the Jets and Dolphins got better. And both teams gave the Bills trouble last year. But they also play each other two times which should be dog fights. You don't hear about that at all.

 

New England...while not on the same level now has a real offensive coordinator that will make a difference. BOB isn't a great GM, but he can call an offense and do it much more competently that Matt Patricia. They should be a tougher out as well. 

 

There is a good chance that these teams all split with each other as well. I could see each of them at 3-3 in the division. I think Buffalo splits with Miami and Jets, but sweeps NE. 

 

I really want that week one win. It may take some time for Rodgers to develop chemistry with his new teammates. If the Bills can come out of MetLife 1-0 then they will have a good chance to sweep the Jets. Also, I will be there, and it will suck leaving the stadium if they lose.

Edited July 26, 2023 by Gregg

[The Jokeman]

The AFC West was hyped last season so it's possible the East is this season. Yet until proven otherwise the Bills are the cream of the division's crop. Yes, we lost to the Jets and Dolphins last year but the games were close and likely could have been won by us if better in the redzone or didn't make a dumb mistake. Toss in most division games are close in score because of familiarity. I get why people are hyping the Jets with an MVP QB and the Dolphins with a new DC yet until we see them produce better with these new people I can't say am scared of either one of them. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

5 minutes ago, Gregg said:

 

I really want that week one win. It may take some time for Rodgers to develop chemistry with his new teammates. If the Bills can come out of MetLife 1-0 then they will have a good chance to sweep the Jets. Also, I will be there, and it will suck leaving the stadium if they lose.

Hopefully this is the case. Buffalo can't keep the game close though. The NFL NEEDS the Jets to win that one. Big game, nation TV and the team that just got Rodgers and plays in one of the largest markets...that's an early season gold mine for them.

[Bray Wyatt]

35 minutes ago, Success said:

We're all expecting it to be the toughest division in football - that's the national narrative, and I think most of us have felt that way.  But I'm starting to get 2022 AFC West vibes.

 

1) The Jets won 7 games last year.  The conventional wisdom is that they were "just a quarterback away" from contending. But 7 wins is 7 wins.  They added a 40-year-old QB, who - though great - will be behind the worst line in the division.

 

2) Miami gave us a tough time last year - but we win the 1st one if it wasn't played in extreme heat, with the visitor sideline getting the brunt of it.  We were up 17-0 in the playoff game and really beat ourselves to make it close.  The only other good team they beat in 2022 was the Ravens. They ended up w/ 9 wins. 

 

3) As for the Pats, they were bad last year. There is a media narrative that's starting to take hold that they're being overlooked & underestimated - but they have 2 elite players in Judon and Stevenson, and added very little in the offseason to move the needle.  I'm not seeing a team that will break .500 this year.

 

Maybe this is all just homer rationalization - but I still think the Bills are king in this division, and that it won't be a particularly close race as we get into December. 

 

Weren't two of their wins against Miami without Tua?

[FireChans]

40 minutes ago, Success said:

We're all expecting it to be the toughest division in football - that's the national narrative, and I think most of us have felt that way.  But I'm starting to get 2022 AFC West vibes.

 

1) The Jets won 7 games last year.  The conventional wisdom is that they were "just a quarterback away" from contending. But 7 wins is 7 wins.  They added a 40-year-old QB, who - though great - will be behind the worst line in the division.

 

2) Miami gave us a tough time last year - but we win the 1st one if it wasn't played in extreme heat, with the visitor sideline getting the brunt of it.  We were up 17-0 in the playoff game and really beat ourselves to make it close.  The only other good team they beat in 2022 was the Ravens. They ended up w/ 9 wins. 

 

3) As for the Pats, they were bad last year. There is a media narrative that's starting to take hold that they're being overlooked & underestimated - but they have 2 elite players in Judon and Stevenson, and added very little in the offseason to move the needle.  I'm not seeing a team that will break .500 this year.

 

Maybe this is all just homer rationalization - but I still think the Bills are king in this division, and that it won't be a particularly close race as we get into December. 

3 of the teams have been in the playoffs in the last 2 years. And the one that didn’t added an old HoF QB. 
 

I don’t think all 4 teams will make it or anything crazy like that. But I have a pretty good feeling one or two WC’s will come from the AFCE.

[Franco_92]

We won't sweep the Dolphins and jets but I wouldn't be surprised if our wins against them are easier this year than last. One season does not make a trajectory, and few trajectories stay true year over year in the NFL

[uninja]

I have a gut feeling Hackett and Rodgers are gonna stink up the joint Broncos style. Hackett rode the coattails of LeFleur to a head coaching job and proved that he absolutely SUCKED at it. As an OC he's had pretty meh offenses except for GB (and that offense wasn't his) and he'd never called plays until he was HC of the Broncos and was...not good.

 

For as good as Rodgers is I don't think that offense can overcome Hackett's terrible play calling abilities and their pretty questionable offensive line.

 

Miami is legit good and between Tua staying healthy, Vic Fangio being a good DC and them having pretty decent personnel on both side of the ball except for a pretty pedestrian running game I think they'll give us a hard time and maybe even win a game against us. I am more afraid of Mia than I am of the NYJ.

 

NE is NE and I just don't think that team has the firepower to match us, imo.

 

I think the hype for NYJ is a bit misplaced, I see shades of Denver there. That defense is gonna be tough but I think their offense is going to struggle because Hackett sucks. NE is NE and Mia is gonna be a tough out.

[Bray Wyatt]

For a comparison to the AFCW last year I would say:

 

Bills - Chiefs

 

Miami - Chargers

 

Jets - Broncos

 

NE - Raiders

[RiotAct]

Miami’s going to be good, very little doubt about that.

 

 

The Jets… could have a great season, could implode.  We’ll see.

[co_springs_billsfan]

5 minutes ago, uninja said:

I have a gut feeling Hackett and Rodgers are gonna stink up the joint Broncos style. Hackett rode the coattails of LeFleur to a head coaching job and proved that he absolutely SUCKED at it. As an OC he's had pretty meh offenses except for GB (and that offense wasn't his) and he'd never called plays until he was HC of the Broncos and was...not good.

 

For as good as Rodgers is I don't think that offense can overcome Hackett's terrible play calling abilities and their pretty questionable offensive line.

 

Miami is legit good and between Tua staying healthy, Vic Fangio being a good DC and them having pretty decent personnel on both side of the ball except for a pretty pedestrian running game I think they'll give us a hard time and maybe even win a game against us. I am more afraid of Mia than I am of the NYJ.

 

NE is NE and I just don't think that team has the firepower to match us, imo.

 

I think the hype for NYJ is a bit misplaced, I see shades of Denver there. That defense is gonna be tough but I think their offense is going to struggle because Hackett sucks. NE is NE and Mia is gonna be a tough out.

I think he called plays for the Bills and Jags also

Edited July 26, 2023 by co_springs_billsfan
Typo

[Doc]

As goes Tua, so go the Dols.  I can't see him not getting concussed early in the season.

[Gregg]

2 minutes ago, Process said:

Jets are good, they will be tough matchups, but they are not Superbowl contenders. Outside of Wilson they have nothing on offense. Hall coming off an ACL? And o line is a big question mark. Rodgers also looked awful in a lot of games last year. But we'll give him the benefit of the doubt for now. 

 

The Dolphins, again, good team, but not Superbowl contenders. Tua is massively overrated right now because of his record last year. He's not good.

 

I disagree on Tua. I also thought he wouldn't be a good QB. But now I think he is. He will never be on the level of Mahomes, Allen, Burrow but he is good. His biggest issue is his health. Another concussion or two and I see his career being cut short.

[NewEra]

I think Miami will be a force- Fangio is a problem. 
 

the jets will be fine as long as they can protect AR.  
 

The pats are 💩 

[PBF81]

The entire division has a tough schedule, ours the toughest.  

 

We all play the AFCW and NFCE 

 

We play Cincy, Jax, and Tampa 

Miami plays Baltimore, Tennessee, and Carolina 

The Jets play Cleveland, Houston, and Atlanta 

NE plays Pittsburgh, Indy, and the Saints 

 

Advantage Jets  

 

NE is like an STD that you can't be gotten rid of.  They weren't good last season but still managed to finish 8-9.  They're probably the worst team in the division but they can play spoiler.  

 

Should be interesting.  

 

 

[GoBills808]

no I don't believe so

 

Dolphins should only be better and they were already tough

 

Jets should be better

 

Patriots are weak but every division has one

[Captain Hindsight]

44 minutes ago, Bray Wyatt said:

 

Weren't two of their wins against Miami without Tua?

Jets wins last year

 

Bills

Miami vs Skylar Thompson (first game) Bridgewater was knocked out on the first play

Cleveland in a game the Browns gave away

Green Bay

Denver with Rypian at QB

Bears with injured Trevor Simien

Steelers

 

The defense made a huge jump, going from 32nd in points against to 4th. Can they do that again? Personally I am skeptical of that 

[Nineforty]

The division is unquestionably ours. All others are looking up. I do not think the Jets are going to make the playoffs, let alone compete for the division. Miami is our strongest competition but we are better. Josh is better. 

[corta765]

The AFC East reminds me a bit of last years AFC West. Young up and coming QB with a talented roster LAC/MIA, Older popular vet QB on a younger up and coming team DEN/NYJ, and ceiling limited but if everything goes right they can be a problem NE/LV.

 

I think Miami has a higher ceiling then the Chargers IF Tua is healthy and the Jets just by Rodgers playing adequate are more formidable then the Broncos were (granted that isn't saying much as Hackett was atrocious). With that said though the questions on Tua's health/their defense coming together and Rodgers showing he still has something mixed a coaching staff that hasn't hit .500 are real and valid. I get many want to believe Rodgers just morphs back to MVP form, but age is undefeated and really Brady is the only QB that played at a super high level from 40 on. Again for the Jets even if he is not MVP form but adequate it is still a colossal upgrade, but I am not as bullish on the Jets as a contender as some.

[Airseven]

Not sure what qualifies as hype, but the AFCE should absolutely be competitive. Bills, Dolphins, and Jets are good teams on equal footing and all threats for first place. I give the Dolphins a slight edge, but it wouldn’t surprise me if all three finish with 10-11 wins. Patriots will have a capable defense and O’Brien should help Jones. They won’t be an auto win for the other three.

[buffaloboyinATL]

No. The AFC west was overhyped last year, the AFCE is receiving the appropriate amount of attention.  

[CapeBreton]

Bills lost to Zack Wilson and Michael Carter last year. While I think Rodgers is overrated, he's still a huge upgrade and could give the Jets a huge boost in wins, plus a healthy Breece Hall will be dangerous.

[Augie]

16 minutes ago, Doc said:

As goes Tua, so go the Dols.  I can't see him not getting concussed early in the season.

 

But, but….he learned how to fall down now! 

 

I hate to joke about it because this is serious stuff about his health, but he just gets rag-dolled so easily I’m afraid for the guy. That first concussion was just a slight push, not a violent blow to the head. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Bills are great.

 

Dolphins are good. Maybe great with Tua.

 

Jets are good.

 

Patriots are average 

 

It’s a tough division. But I also think the North and West will be tough.

[Gregg]

1 minute ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Bills are great.

 

Dolphins are good. Maybe great with Tua.

 

Jets are good.

 

Patriots are average 

 

It’s a tough division. But I also think the North and West will be tough.

 

The Jags may just end up getting the #1 seed if they can stay healthy. They should have no trouble winning their division.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

16 minutes ago, CapeBreton said:

Bills lost to Zack Wilson and Michael Carter last year. While I think Rodgers is overrated, he's still a huge upgrade and could give the Jets a huge boost in wins, plus a healthy Breece Hall will be dangerous.

Weird game vs Jets. Bills were close to running away with that game but let the Jets get confident. Allen made a couple mistakes.

[bigduke6]

on paper,  no,  the AFCE is not being overhyped.   however, we see each offseason teams that win the offseason and seemingly get better,  but crap out.   AFCWest comes to mind last year.   alot goes into being a good team,  luck,  hard work,  intelligent coaching,  etc, etc.    some of that you cant control no matter how much money you spend.  every team in the league is 1 or 2 key injuries away from being terrible tbh.   we wont know whos actually legit until the games are played,  but on paper,  sure the AFCE looks to be really tough this coming season.

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

47 minutes ago, uninja said:

I have a gut feeling Hackett and Rodgers are gonna stink up the joint Broncos style. Hackett rode the coattails of LeFleur to a head coaching job and proved that he absolutely SUCKED at it. As an OC he's had pretty meh offenses except for GB (and that offense wasn't his) and he'd never called plays until he was HC of the Broncos and was...not good.

 

For as good as Rodgers is I don't think that offense can overcome Hackett's terrible play calling abilities and their pretty questionable offensive line.

 

Miami is legit good and between Tua staying healthy, Vic Fangio being a good DC and them having pretty decent personnel on both side of the ball except for a pretty pedestrian running game I think they'll give us a hard time and maybe even win a game against us. I am more afraid of Mia than I am of the NYJ.

 

NE is NE and I just don't think that team has the firepower to match us, imo.

 

I think the hype for NYJ is a bit misplaced, I see shades of Denver there. That defense is gonna be tough but I think their offense is going to struggle because Hackett sucks. NE is NE and Mia is gonna be a tough out.

 

Miami lost the last 4 games Tua started FWIW (and buffalo was the only game he played well in), and 6 of their last 7 games overall.  They had some really solid offensive stretches... but the media seems to think Tua was unstoppable but when the games mattered... L to SF (3 turnovers), L to LAC (10/28 for 145 yards in a freaking dome), L to Buf (fine game, but allen was significantly finer), L to GB (i guess a mulligan for the undiagnosed concussion but... 3 interceptions and 2 fumbles is pretty bad in a must win game).  To me it looks like McDaniel was figured out a little bit - and my assumption is they want to run the ball more effectively to counter what teams did to disrupt their RPO game. 

 

Chubb, Phillips, Wilkins, holland, howard, Jones were all there last year... they added ramsey.  But that unit was 18th in yards and 24th in points allowed.  If Ramsey is as good as he thinks he is that should be some pretty substantial improvement, but they are probably at least a little bit overrated.  They have fangio now - who is a great coach... but he is the exact opposite of Josh Boyer.  He blitzes far less and plays far more 2 high looks.  Are Phillips and Chubb going to be able to make tons of pressure without LBs and S's coming off the edge?  Are Holland and Jones going to be as effective of players playing high? 

 

Lot of stuff to unpack here, and I'm glad we'll get some film on them before we play them.  

[seannc]

Mine is not a particularly insightful comment, but we really don't know. It's just preseason speculation and an injury here and there will change the narrative in a hurry. Let's just sit back and enjoy!

[The Wiz]

1 hour ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

No. The AFC west was overhyped last year, the AFCE is receiving the appropriate amount of attention.  

I'd say that denver was overhyped.  Not necessarily the afc west.  I didn't think LA was going to all the sudden be world beaters because of Adams and the Chargers pretty much shot themselves in the foot all season long.  

 

Denver was abysmal for what was expected from them.

Edited July 26, 2023 by The Wiz

[Nextmanup]

2 hours ago, Success said:

1) The Jets won 7 games last year.  The conventional wisdom is that they were "just a quarterback away" from contending. But 7 wins is 7 wins.  They added a 40-year-old QB, who - though great - will be behind the worst line in the division.

Don't make the mistake of judging a team based on what it did 1 season ago.  Last year is meaningless.

 

Last year on opening night, we were all overjoyed that we beat up on the defending Super Bowl champions.

Little did we all know at the time that LA was hot trash, and about to win 5 games all year long.

 

NFL teams ROUTINELY change dramatically from one year to the next, for better or worse.

 

The Jets might go to the SB this year, or be terrible.

 

The ultimate answer to your question is: we'll find out.

 

 

[Drew21PA]

For a 13-4 team and a bunch of 7-10 teams I think so

[Mynamemike]

2 hours ago, Success said:

We're all expecting it to be the toughest division in football - that's the national narrative, and I think most of us have felt that way.  But I'm starting to get 2022 AFC West vibes.

 

1) The Jets won 7 games last year.  The conventional wisdom is that they were "just a quarterback away" from contending. But 7 wins is 7 wins.  They added a 40-year-old QB, who - though great - will be behind the worst line in the division.

 

2) Miami gave us a tough time last year - but we win the 1st one if it wasn't played in extreme heat, with the visitor sideline getting the brunt of it.  We were up 17-0 in the playoff game and really beat ourselves to make it close.  The only other good team they beat in 2022 was the Ravens. They ended up w/ 9 wins. 

 

3) As for the Pats, they were bad last year. There is a media narrative that's starting to take hold that they're being overlooked & underestimated - but they have 2 elite players in Judon and Stevenson, and added very little in the offseason to move the needle.  I'm not seeing a team that will break .500 this year.

 

Maybe this is all just homer rationalization - but I still think the Bills are king in this division, and that it won't be a particularly close race as we get into December. 

First time in the last few years where I think we’re in for a legit dog fight.  Lots of questions for the Jets and Dolphins but the potential definitely seems like it’s there.   Stoked to see how it plays out

[Mr. WEO]

So….paper tigers?

[ngbills]

The Jets and Fins will both be better. 

 

Jets are currently favored in 11 games

Fins are currently favored in 11 games

Bills are currently favored in 13 games

 

Makes sense to me. I could Fins and Jets winning between 9-13 games. Bills should be between 10-14. 

[ALLEN1QB]

Buffalo will win division by week 13 yes I said it!!