Which Bills players are “Make-It or Break-It” for 2023?

[JohnNord]

Here’s my choices:

 

Spencer Brown - This is Brown’s second consecutive season to show improvement.  He failed last year…if he fails again, you’ll likely see Buffalo replace him next offseason and move on the following season.   Time is ticking.
 

Ed Oliver - He’s never been able to consistently live up to his potential yet he’ll want a deal similar to Dexter Lawrence and Jeffrey Simmons - players who outperformed him despite being drafted later in 2018.  But he’s not going to get anything close from the Bills or any other team if he doesn’t step it up in 2023.  
 

Gabe Davis - Davis had a good..not great season in 2022.  Like Oliver he’s a FA in 2023 and the contract offer will likely depend on his performance in 2023.  An improved season should secure a very lucrative contract at or close to WR1 money.  Another 2022, and he’ll sign somewhere for modest WR2 money.  

Taylor Rapp - Rapp had options to sign a contract where he’d start or compete to start.  He chose to sign in Buffalo to back up Poyer and Hyde.  A good season could lead to a new contract with Buffalo to replace Hyde.  Otherwise he’ll be back on the FA market in 2023.

 

Poona Ford - same as Rapp.  Ford allegedly took less money for an opportunity in Buffalo.  With so many expiring contracts on the interior DL, a good season could help Ford cash in on a lucrative long term deal in Buffalo or elsewhere.  
 

Who else did I miss?

 

[Southern_Bills]

I think Oliver is gone regardless. He will want top 5 money and even if he plays top 5 this year Beane won't trust him to do so going forward.

 

The rest of them I see being here for multiple years as long as they want to be and their salary demands match their contributions to the team.

[Rico]

Tre White needs to be back-to-form to justify the $.

[Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD]

I think Epenesa and Basham are in the same boat. They both need to be more consistent if they want to be a part of the D-line rotation. 

 

If Von Miller wasn't injured, I think one of them would have been traded for a late round pick.

[JohnNord]

6 minutes ago, Southern_Bills said:

I think Oliver is gone regardless. He will want top 5 money and even if he plays top 5 this year Beane won't trust him to do so going forward.

 

The rest of them I see being here for multiple years as long as they want to be and their salary demands match their contributions to the team.

It seems like the Bills really like Oliver and want to re-sign him but he hasn’t done enough to justify the contract he’ll want.  I see him in Edmunds territory, though the difference is that DT is a more premium position than LB.  But yeah he’s really going to have to show he’s worth it.  
 

Bills might be able to re-sign Davis is he has another year like 2022.  But will they want to? 

10 minutes ago, Rico said:

Tre White needs to be back-to-form to justify the $.

Good point… he actually has a potential out in  contract after 2023, and given his contract, I wouldn’t put it past the team to exercise 

[JohnNord]

11 minutes ago, Allen2Diggs said:

I think Epenesa and Basham are in the same boat. They both need to be more consistent if they want to be a part of the D-line rotation. 

 

If Von Miller wasn't injured, I think one of them would have been traded for a late round pick.

I totally forgot about these two, but you are right - especially for Epinesa who will be a FA.  
 

If a DE like Jonathan Kingsley, Kameron Cline or Shane Ray balls out in the preseason, I would not be shocked to see a trade late in the preseason with one of these players.  

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Almost the entire DL.

[Virgil]

51 minutes ago, Southern_Bills said:

I think Oliver is gone regardless. He will want top 5 money and even if he plays top 5 this year Beane won't trust him to do so going forward.

 

The rest of them I see being here for multiple years as long as they want to be and their salary demands match their contributions to the team.

 

I agree that he may want it, but I don't know that anyone is going to give it to him.  

[Bigvinny]

Ed Oliver,  dude disappears way too much to be a top 10 pick.

[I'm Spartacus]

Ken Dorsey

[Augie]

A thread about failure. Again. Yay…..

[Southern_Bills]

13 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 

I agree that he may want it, but I don't know that anyone is going to give it to him.  

 

If he can have a break out year and enter the FA market someone will pay it, they always do.

[billsbackto81]

1 hour ago, Rico said:

Tre White needs to be back-to-form to justify the $.

He's a big part of our success moving forward. I know he was a little tenative after coming back from his injury but he was getting absolutely roasted last season. 

[Dablitzkrieg]

30 minutes ago, Augie said:

A thread about failure. Again. Yay…..

We all need your opinion.

[julian]

31 minutes ago, Augie said:

A thread about failure. Again. Yay…..

Waiting until divisional round is too long for some folks

[Mark Vader]

Dane Jackson. He will be a free agent at the end of the season. Is he good enough to stay with us in the future?

 

Mitch Morse. The concussions are a concern. He's been solid, but age is becoming a factor.

[Augie]

16 minutes ago, Mark Vader said:

Dane Jackson. He will be a free agent at the end of the season. Is he good enough to stay with us in the future?

 

Mitch Morse. The concussions are a concern. He's been solid, but age is becoming a factor.

 

I’m just happy Dane Jackson can walk after that neck injury. This puts life in perspective. I almost threw up when I saw that. 

[NewEra]

[BuffaloBillyG]

In a VERY small way...Coach McDermott. 

 

Him taking over the defense is him betting on himself. Not saying that is a bad idea because he was a HECK of a DC. We win it all or come close with amazing defense and he is even more secure in his spot (if it's possible because his job security may be among the safest in the NFL).

 

But, a poor result couples with poor defense in the playoffs and perhaps Pegula starts questioning things a bit. It's pretty well documented that Terry loved Mahomes coming out and McD was a main driving force not to take him at the spot. Pegula has already seen Mahomes send the Bills home from the playoffs twice. Not saying he's on the hot seat...but another defensive failure with him at the helm to the guy that McD talked Pegula out of...it just may get a bit uncomfortable for Sean.

[wppete]

Ed Oliver

Tre White

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Basham, Epenesa, Morse, and Oliver are gone after this season. 

Davis most likely too unless he really balls out and Diggs becomes a distraction.

White is my cap casualty for 2024. They didn't extend him so they can move on from him next year as a post June 1 cut. Elam and Benford are cheaper options. 

Make or break has to be Brown.  If he plays well he can be RT for several years. That allows them to draft Dawkins replacement next season. If Brown doesn't get any better they will really be hurting at OT in 2024. 

 

1 hour ago, Augie said:

A thread about failure. Again. Yay…..

Its not about failure. Its about pretending to be GM and predicting what you or Beane might do in the future 

[JerseyBills]

DefinitelyBig Ed. Daquan could get a really nice extension if he stays healthy and exceeds what he did last year

 

AJ Epenesa- needs to add consistency to his game 

 

Tim Settle/ Dane Jackson/ Bates and Brown are all in similar positions 

 

Hardy is interesting as well, but I expect him to give us a new dimension in the speed department that we don't have and explode on the scene in Buf 

Edited May 14, 2023 by JerseyBills

[seannc]

1 hour ago, Mark Vader said:

Dane Jackson. He will be a free agent at the end of the season. Is he good enough to stay with us in the future?

 

Mitch Morse. The concussions are a concern. He's been solid, but age is becoming a factor.

I don't think Morse should be included as a "make it or break it". He's already made it and has had a good career. Nothing left to prove, but yes his concussion history should be a concern and I would not blame him for retiring after next season in the best interest of his health and his future.

 

I would include "Rick" Bates though. He can prove this year that he's the potential center for the future. It would be great if he is!

[JohnBonhamRocks]

Not Allen, Cook, Diggs, Shakir, Miller, Rousseau, Milano, Elam, Johnson, Bass, Martin, or the high round rookies. 

[Gugny]

5 hours ago, I'm Spartacus said:

Ken Dorsey

If we could extend this to coaches (which I guess we have, now), then I will agree with Dorsey and DEFINITELY throw McDermott in there. 

[ganesh]

5 hours ago, JohnNord said:

It seems like the Bills really like Oliver and want to re-sign him but he hasn’t done enough to justify the contract he’ll want.  I see him in Edmunds territory, though the difference is that DT is a more premium position than LB.  But yeah he’s really going to have to show he’s worth it.  
 

Bills might be able to re-sign Davis is he has another year like 2022.  But will they want to? 

Good point… he actually has a potential out in  contract after 2023, and given his contract, I wouldn’t put it past the team to exercise 

I believe the Bills Front Office and the Coaching staff have a much better feel about Gabe Davis than the Mafia.  The Bills will most probably extend Gabe this season for WR2 money.

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

5 hours ago, I'm Spartacus said:

Ken Dorsey

Swear I saw him yesterday in west Seneca driving a lime green Mercedes high end sports car …. Hopefully his offense matches his ride next season 

[John from Riverside]

It Hass to be Spencer Brown
 

The bills are showing that they believe in him, but if he takes another season, I think that will be it

[HappyCat]

7 hours ago, JohnNord said:

I totally forgot about these two, but you are right - especially for Epinesa who will be a FA.  
 

If a DE like Jonathan Kingsley, Kameron Cline or Shane Ray balls out in the preseason, I would not be shocked to see a trade late in the preseason with one of these players.  

I've been following Kingsley.  He's good enough to make the roster and could be a sleeper starter!

[Thurman#1]

The ones whose contracts end this year.

 

Others, Spencer Brown for instance, not so much. If they're unhappy with guys like that, they'll try to replace them and see how things go, particularly on a nice cheap contract like Brown's.

Edited May 15, 2023 by Thurman#1

[T master]

16 hours ago, JohnNord said:

Here’s my choices:

 

Spencer Brown - This is Brown’s second consecutive season to show improvement.  He failed last year…if he fails again, you’ll likely see Buffalo replace him next offseason and move on the following season.   Time is ticking.
 

Ed Oliver - He’s never been able to consistently live up to his potential yet he’ll want a deal similar to Dexter Lawrence and Jeffrey Simmons - players who outperformed him despite being drafted later in 2018.  But he’s not going to get anything close from the Bills or any other team if he doesn’t step it up in 2023.  
 

Gabe Davis - Davis had a good..not great season in 2022.  Like Oliver he’s a FA in 2023 and the contract offer will likely depend on his performance in 2023.  An improved season should secure a very lucrative contract at or close to WR1 money.  Another 2022, and he’ll sign somewhere for modest WR2 money.  

Taylor Rapp - Rapp had options to sign a contract where he’d start or compete to start.  He chose to sign in Buffalo to back up Poyer and Hyde.  A good season could lead to a new contract with Buffalo to replace Hyde.  Otherwise he’ll be back on the FA market in 2023.

 

Poona Ford - same as Rapp.  Ford allegedly took less money for an opportunity in Buffalo.  With so many expiring contracts on the interior DL, a good season could help Ford cash in on a lucrative long term deal in Buffalo or elsewhere.  
 

Who else did I miss?

 

 

I definitely agree with your top 3 ! Oliver has to have a monster year to get the money i think he will think he's worth, If Brown doesn't do well he will become a depth player, Gabe just needs to not drop the ball & he will be fine but given who they have & who they drafted he better be on his game .

 

Rapp i beliefe has already shown what he's worth & will wind up being the Bills future after Po & Hyde are done which is why Beane got him so cheap with that stipulation & I think Ford will also be in consideration if he plays like he did before the Hawks changed to a 3/4 because there will be no other DT's .

 

There are some of the Bills guards that will need to prove them selves to if they want to stick Bates, Botger, if for nothing else just due to the competition it will be huge this season at that position .

[GunnerBill]

14 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

DefinitelyBig Ed. Daquan could get a really nice extension if he stays healthy and exceeds what he did last year

 

AJ Epenesa- needs to add consistency to his game 

 

Tim Settle/ Dane Jackson/ Bates and Brown are all in similar positions 

 

Hardy is interesting as well, but I expect him to give us a new dimension in the speed department that we don't have and explode on the scene in Buf 

 

On the bold - a really nice extension for a 32 year old nose tackle would be an unspeakably bad decision. 

 

On the italicised - It is Harty rather than Hardy but you are right.... he is an easy cut after this season so I add him to the make or break. If he wants to see year 2 of his deal he has to play well. 

[Royale with Cheese]

29 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

On the bold - a really nice extension for a 32 year old nose tackle would be an unspeakably bad decision. 

 

On the italicised - It is Harty rather than Hardy but you are right.... he is an easy cut after this season so I add him to the make or break. If he wants to see year 2 of his deal he has to play well. 

 

I think we are going to start seeing a trend of a higher % of athletes staying successful longer.  Not saying this is DaQuan but players are taking care of themselves today better, improved training/nutrition with "Sports Scientists", advancements in medicine/surgery and continued less contact in practice...we're going to see players last longer.

 

Jerry Rice was the first real one I remember with eating very healthy and strong work ethic...he was good until he was 40.  

I see Von Miller the same way.  

Kobe Bryant was that in the NBA.

It's not that players back then were more lazy, the just didn't have the education.  Today's players are much more aware how to take care of their bodies and usually have professional help.  I've seen diet plans of professional athletes and it's literally a science.  

 

If we extended Jones lets say for 2 more years, I wouldn't be upset...especially if he's still effective this early on this year.

[Fleezoid]

Ed Oliver and Spencer Brown. Plus, every player that signed a one-year deal, which is about half the team.

[dpberr]

I think they will trade Ed Oliver at the deadline, regardless of the season he's having. 

[SCBills]

1)  I'd say Spencer Brown and Gabe Davis, as they are guys I think the Bills very much want to be in their future plans.  

 

2) Tre White should definitely be high on this list due to the out the Bills have after this season in his contract.  

 

3) Guys playing for another Bills contract / contract extensions.. Poona, Rapp, Daquan, Epenesa, Harris etc

 

4) The medical/age related guys.. Morse, Hyde, Poyer

 

5) I put Ed Oliver way down on the list, in terms of Bills related "make or break".   If he balls out we likely can't afford him.  Like Tremaine, we might have a number for him, but he likely gets way more elsewhere.  If he doesn't ball out, we have no reason to bring him back. 

 

 

[JerseyBills]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

On the bold - a really nice extension for a 32 year old nose tackle would be an unspeakably bad decision. 

 

On the italicised - It is Harty rather than Hardy but you are right.... he is an easy cut after this season so I add him to the make or break. If he wants to see year 2 of his deal he has to play well. 

True Didn't realize he is 32

[Ya Digg?]

15 hours ago, Gugny said:

If we could extend this to coaches (which I guess we have, now), then I will agree with Dorsey and DEFINITELY throw McDermott in there. 

Just wondering, what would make or break look like for McDermott?  AFC championship game?  Must win the Super Bowl?

[TheyCallMeAndy]

I like the thread, I just disagree with the list. It just depends what you mean by “break.” Done with the team? Done in the NFL? 

 

I actually think Davis and Oliver are more likely to get a 2nd contract with the Bills if they do not reach that next level. They are both solid, as long as the price is right they will be back.

Ford and Rapp will play limited snaps, I think their Monday-Saturday performances will impact the odds of a second contract more than their impact on Sundays.

 

If Espenesa copies 2022 and pastes it in 2023 he’ll get an extension.

 

True ‘make or break’ in my eyes are Phillips, Hynes, Poyer, and Hyde for age/cap reasons. For performance reasons I’ll go with Basham and Brown. 

[Gugny]

18 minutes ago, Ya Digg? said:

Just wondering, what would make or break look like for McDermott?  AFC championship game?  Must win the Super Bowl?

Make the AFCCG at the very least. 
 

And if we lose for the same reasons we last the last one (dreadful coaching), then I’d be all for him being gone. 
 

It really depends on why the Bills didn’t make it to the Super Bowl. The Bills’ post-season elimination games during the McDermott era have not been pretty and blame it squarely on coaching. 
 

I don’t think I’m being unreasonable.