We're onto Miami(Miami's headed to Buffalo)...opening line BUF -10! Game at 1:05 PM SUN 1/15

[Warriorspikes51]

12 minutes ago, Berky1010 said:

Vegas just moved line from 10.5 to 9. Assume we hear Tua will play soon enough.

Or, a lot of $ was being bet a certain way 

[Nextmanup]

6 hours ago, JustAnotherBillsFan said:

In light of what our team has been through in the past week I have two concerns if Tua plays.

 

1) Will our dline be able to play with full aggression or will there be a sliver of hesitation and caution with regard to injuring Tua? 

2) In the unfortunate event that Tua suffers (yet) another concussion, how well will our players be able to shake that off and continue playing?

 

Thoughts?

Are you serious? I have no concerns over either of those things.

 

If Tua plays, I would hope the players do their best to knock him out of the game, and that should be made very clear to them this week by the coaching staff.

 

You look the wrong at Tua in his current condition and he is going to get another concussion.  We need to capitalize on that.

 

He should not have played another snap this year after his second concussion on TNF.  

 

If he isn't going to care about his own health, why should the Bills?

 

 

 

[Logic]

2 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

Are you serious? I have no concerns over either of those things.

 

If Tua plays, I would hope the players do their best to knock him out of the game, and that should be made very clear to them this week by the coaching staff.

 

You look the wrong at Tua in his current condition and he is going to get another concussion.  We need to capitalize on that.

 

He should not have played another snap this year after his second concussion on TNF.  

 

If he isn't going to care about his own health, why should the Bills?

 

 

 

Yuck.

[Warriorspikes51]

5 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

Are you serious? I have no concerns over either of those things.

 

If Tua plays, I would hope the players do their best to knock him out of the game, and that should be made very clear to them this week by the coaching staff.

 

You look the wrong at Tua in his current condition and he is going to get another concussion.  We need to capitalize on that.

 

He should not have played another snap this year after his second concussion on TNF.  

 

If he isn't going to care about his own health, why should the Bills?

 

 

 

 

So to be clear.....you're advocating for giving Tua his 4th concussion in 4 months which could have long term effects to his brain.

Have you learned nothing from the past week? 

[K-9]

2 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I'm sure he didn't have a fusion.  I doubt he would be doing any sort of light drills at practice with that level of surgery.  

I healed from my herniated disc in my back in 2 months and I never went to physical therapy. 

Every media report at the time said he had surgery and a recovery period of 6-9 months, indicating he had the ACDF procedure. If those reports are wrong, then he had the ADR procedure instead and that carries a much shorter recovery time of three months. Regardless, the scar on his throat indicates he had surgery of some sort. And a return to light calisthenics and drills isn’t out of the ordinary for either procedure.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 hour ago, YattaOkasan said:

Niners did fine I agree.  But to my point they didnt do as well as we did either time in terms of pass yards.  i agree fins will throw to the spot where they expect a hole.  but i very much disagree we dont mess with the receivers getting to the spot.  you think the ONLY way to do this is by press man?  Frazier knows how to do it by disguising and rotating coverage post snap.  Frazier knows where they want to put the ball and puts someone there they didnt expect.  If you cant run cover 2  with Jaquan and Hamlin then why did they hold Tua to his second lowest output of the season (186 yards!) in the first meeting.  The idea that you have to run press man and cant run cover 2 against them is wrong.  

 

Agree we got crushed in the run game in second game, but thats a better reason to say dont run cover 2 against them than that we cant stop the pass with it.  In fact, I think we went to more cover 1 cause we were getting gashed in cover 2.  What happened when we went to man in order to bring a safety into the box, was long passes to Hill and Wilson (others too i cant recall).  You go to war with the army you have, not the army you want.  The army we have can stop them better with cover 2 than it can with cover 1 (though we are pretty good in cover 2 man or cover 1 lurk/rat).

Maybe I’m taking crazy pills and I apologize if so lol but the 49ers really didn’t appear to be playing press man to me.  Brandon Staley even commented on how different the niners gameplan was.  They seemed to be playing what people around here call ‘the Leslie Frazier special’ lol lots of soft zone/cover 4 and cover 2 shell in the secondary and rushing 4…their linebackers tackled well and closed so fast on underneath throws though and they were stout against the run. Milano had a really bad night for us against the dolphins.  
 

Miami runs a lot of heavy sets that dare you to throw a third linebacker out there and we tried to ride it out in the nickel and had an awful night tackling 

 

 

Edited January 10, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[GoBills808]

I hope Tua is ok

 

He's a good kid and wishing injury on him is some bush league bs

[todd]

21 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

Are you serious? I have no concerns over either of those things.

 

If Tua plays, I would hope the players do their best to knock him out of the game, and that should be made very clear to them this week by the coaching staff.

 

You look the wrong at Tua in his current condition and he is going to get another concussion.  We need to capitalize on that.

 

He should not have played another snap this year after his second concussion on TNF.  

 

If he isn't going to care about his own health, why should the Bills?

 

 

 

not only is purposefully injuring someone morally wrong, it is disgusting seeing what happened to DH. 
 

Bills are classier than that, even if you aren’t.

[SCBills]

10 minutes ago, todd said:

not only is purposefully injuring someone morally wrong, it is disgusting seeing what happened to DH. 
 

Bills are classier than that, even if you aren’t.

 

CLEARLY, the Bills should not intentionally try to concuss Tua.

 

What they better do is have a game-plan in place that tries to knock around Tua.  If he plays, we know he can be hit.. and that those hits can greatly affect his ability.  

 

If anyone on this team/staff is holding back because of Hamlin, we are not long for the post-season. 

[Casey D]

2 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

CLEARLY, the Bills should not intentionally try to concuss Tua.

 

What they better do is have a game-plan in place that tries to knock around Tua.  If he plays, we know he can be hit.. and that those hits can greatly affect his ability.  

 

If anyone on this team/staff is holding back because of Hamlin, we are not long for the post-season. 

Agree.  Tua has not even practiced in three weeks, after throwing three pics in the second half against GB.  If he is really cleared by doctors--which I doubt at this point-- let him play.  He is not a horrible QB by any stretch, but he's not that good to think that after not practicing for three weeks-- and not playing-- he will have a great game in Buffalo.  And if he does, God love him.  

[HurlyBurly51]

59 minutes ago, Berky1010 said:

Vegas just moved line from 10.5 to 9. Assume we hear Tua will play soon enough.

Of course he's gonna play.  Bet on it.

[The Wiz]

7 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

CLEARLY, the Bills should not intentionally try to concuss Tua.

 

What they better do is have a game-plan in place that tries to knock around Tua.  If he plays, we know he can be hit.. and that those hits can greatly affect his ability.  

 

If anyone on this team/staff is holding back because of Hamlin, we are not long for the post-season. 

I think Taron is gonna be ok to lay the lumber.

 

 

[beebe]

43 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

Are you serious? I have no concerns over either of those things.

 

If Tua plays, I would hope the players do their best to knock him out of the game, and that should be made very clear to them this week by the coaching staff.

 

You look the wrong at Tua in his current condition and he is going to get another concussion.  We need to capitalize on that.

 

He should not have played another snap this year after his second concussion on TNF.  

 

If he isn't going to care about his own health, why should the Bills?

 

 

 

 

one of the worst posts i've read on this site. we're a week removed from "who cares about football" and "there's more important things in life" and right back to "let's capitalize on the fact that a concussed player is playing and try to take him out!"

 

the bills don't need to intentionally concuss or injure tua to win.

[H2o]

48 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

Are you serious? I have no concerns over either of those things.

 

If Tua plays, I would hope the players do their best to knock him out of the game, and that should be made very clear to them this week by the coaching staff.

 

You look the wrong at Tua in his current condition and he is going to get another concussion.  We need to capitalize on that.

 

He should not have played another snap this year after his second concussion on TNF.  

 

If he isn't going to care about his own health, why should the Bills?

 

 

 

Well, we just found out who Nextmanup is in real life:

 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 hour ago, Berky1010 said:

Vegas just moved line from 10.5 to 9. Assume we hear Tua will play soon enough.

That very well might be based on bridgewater.  McDaniel said pretty recently he was very close to being able to play against the jets.  Bills -9.5 with bridgewater starting sounds right 

 

the way he’s talked about tua it’s more likely he doesn’t play I’d say but it’s impossible to know.  The 49ers are -9.5 against the Seahawks for reference 

Edited January 10, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[todd]

20 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

CLEARLY, the Bills should not intentionally try to concuss Tua.

 

What they better do is have a game-plan in place that tries to knock around Tua.  If he plays, we know he can be hit.. and that those hits can greatly affect his ability.  

 

If anyone on this team/staff is holding back because of Hamlin, we are not long for the post-season. 

 

Not saying they shouldn't touch him. And I think getting after the QB is pretty much key to any game plan with an above-average QB. That's much different than trying to concuss the guy, or purposefully injure him.

 

"Don't play dirty, don't play dumb." - Marv Levy

[rusty shackleford]

21 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

I think Taron is gonna be ok to lay the lumber.

 

 

A preview of Taron Johnson’s first snap Sunday:

 

[newcam2012]

Looks like Tua is going to play according to several Twitter folks.

 

 

Edited January 10, 2023 by newcam2012

[beebe]

26 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

That very well might be based on bridgewater.  McDaniel said pretty recently he was very close to being able to play against the jets.  Bills -9.5 with bridgewater starting sounds right 

 

the way he’s talked about tua it’s more likely he doesn’t play I’d say but it’s impossible to know.  The 49ers are -9.5 against the Seahawks for reference 

the current line is a straddle between the possibility of tua playing or not playing.

 

if tua is in, line will be dolphins +7.5

 

if he's out, line will be about 11. 

[Beck Water]

4 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

 

Can someone talk me through the meaning of DVOA (use small words and speak slowly)?

 

And yeah, I've read their blurb at https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods

 

I THINK what this means is the Bills offense has very good results vs nickel D, and somewhat bad results vs. base D (which, I don't think we face too often)

while

the Dolphins defense has good results when running a base defense, but poor results when running a nickel

 

What do the numbers in parentheses mean?

 

By the way, Aaron Schatz is the one who referred to Allen as a “parody of an NFL quarterback prospect” and said “I would rather have Tyrod Taylor quarterbacking my team over the next four years than Josh Allen.”

 

[The Frankish Reich]

2 minutes ago, beebe said:

the current line is a straddle between the possibility of tua playing or not playing.

 

if tua is in, line will be dolphins +7.5

 

if he's out, line will be about 11. 

True. 
But there’s the Bridgewater factor too. 
So something like Dolphins + 7 with Tua starting (basically Bills 4 point faves on a neutral field). Dolphins + 10 with Teddy starting. Dolphins + 16 (more? He’s that bad) with Skyler Thompson starting. 

47 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

CLEARLY, the Bills should not intentionally try to concuss Tua.

 

What they better do is have a game-plan in place that tries to knock around Tua.  If he plays, we know he can be hit.. and that those hits can greatly affect his ability.  

 

If anyone on this team/staff is holding back because of Hamlin, we are not long for the post-season. 

Try to “knock him around” bothers me too. 
Try to bring pressure to throw off that quick rhythm passing game? Yeah, I’m fine with that. Although you do risk not getting to him and letting Tyreek/Waddle break one for 70 yards. I prefer “try to disrupt the receivers to keep them from getting off the line cleanly.”

[dave mcbride]

4 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Can someone talk me through the meaning of DVOA (use small words and speak slowly)?

 

And yeah, I've read their blurb at https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods

 

I THINK what this means is the Bills offense has very good results vs nickel D, and somewhat bad results vs. base D (which, I don't think we face too often)

while

the Dolphins defense has good results when running a base defense, but poor results when running a nickel

 

What do the numbers in parentheses mean?

 

By the way, Aaron Schatz is the one who referred to Allen as a “parody of an NFL quarterback prospect” and said “I would rather have Tyrod Taylor quarterbacking my team over the next four years than Josh Allen.”

 

The parenthetical numbers are their rankings out of 32. The Bills are second vs. nickel and the Dolphins nickel D is the 25th best nickel D in the league. 

[WotAGuy]

6 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Can someone talk me through the meaning of DVOA (use small words and speak slowly)?

 

And yeah, I've read their blurb at https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods

 

I THINK what this means is the Bills offense has very good results vs nickel D, and somewhat bad results vs. base D (which, I don't think we face too often)

while

the Dolphins defense has good results when running a base defense, but poor results when running a nickel

 

What do the numbers in parentheses mean?

 

By the way, Aaron Schatz is the one who referred to Allen as a “parody of an NFL quarterback prospect” and said “I would rather have Tyrod Taylor quarterbacking my team over the next four years than Josh Allen.”

 

You interpreted the data correctly. The numbers in parentheses are league ranking. As for what DVOA is, you’ll have to figure it out for yourself as to whether it’s a useful metric. It’s a statistic, so it can be useful or nonsense depending on your perspective. 
 

 

Edited January 10, 2023 by WotAGuy

[Coach Tuesday]

7 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Can someone talk me through the meaning of DVOA (use small words and speak slowly)?

 

And yeah, I've read their blurb at https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods

 

I THINK what this means is the Bills offense has very good results vs nickel D, and somewhat bad results vs. base D (which, I don't think we face too often)

while

the Dolphins defense has good results when running a base defense, but poor results when running a nickel

 

What do the numbers in parentheses mean?

 

By the way, Aaron Schatz is the one who referred to Allen as a “parody of an NFL quarterback prospect” and said “I would rather have Tyrod Taylor quarterbacking my team over the next four years than Josh Allen.”

 

 

DVOA, basically, measures situational performance versus a replacement-level baseline.  How does your team compare to how your average team would do against that same opponent, in that same down-and-distance.

[newcam2012]

19 minutes ago, beebe said:

the current line is a straddle between the possibility of tua playing or not playing.

 

if tua is in, line will be dolphins +7.5

 

if he's out, line will be about 11. 

I don't see this game as a blowout. I jumped all over the 10.5 points and Miami. This line is ridiculous. The two teams played a mini playoff game a few weeks ago. It came down to a game winning FG. Not sure how the Bills are favored by this much. I think the Bills should be favored by 6. This is with Tua playing. I have little doubt he won't play. 

Edited January 10, 2023 by newcam2012

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, newcam2012 said:

I don't see this game as a blowout. I jumped all over the 10.5 points and Miami. This line is ridiculous. The two teams played a mini playoff game a few weeks ago. It came down to a game winning FG. Not sure how the Bills are favored by this much. I think the Bills should be favored by 6. This is with Tua playing. I have little doubt he won't play. 

lets see that ticket then

[Logic]

3 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

I don't see this game as a blowout. I jumped all over the 10.5 points and Miami. 

You don't say.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

9 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

I don't see this game as a blowout. I jumped all over the 10.5 points and Miami. This line is ridiculous. The two teams played a mini playoff game a few weeks ago. It came down to a game winning FG. Not sure how the Bills are favored by this much. I think the Bills should be favored by 6. This is with Tua playing. I have little doubt he won't play. 

GTFOH

[Heitz]

33 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Looks like Tua is going to play according to several Twitter folks.

 

 

 

Your takeaway from this is Tua is going to play?  Two memes, from a Bills podcast?  That are clearly a joke?

 

14 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

I don't see this game as a blowout. I jumped all over the 10.5 points and Miami. This line is ridiculous. The two teams played a mini playoff game a few weeks ago. It came down to a game winning FG. Not sure how the Bills are favored by this much. I think the Bills should be favored by 6. This is with Tua playing. I have little doubt he won't play. 

 

You SURE you're a Bills fan?  Your takes are all so far off the mark, IMO...

 

 

[Sharky7337]

1 hour ago, Heitz said:

 

Your takeaway from this is Tua is going to play?  Two memes, from a Bills podcast?  That are clearly a joke?

 

 

You SURE you're a Bills fan?  Your takes are all so far off the mark, IMO...

 

 

Apparently being a bills fan means not taking a good bet? Lol

Edited January 11, 2023 by Sharky7337

[Patrick Duffy]

17 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

I jumped all over the 10.5 points and Miami.

How much you put down? 5 dollas ?
 

[Process]

54 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

I don't see this game as a blowout. I jumped all over the 10.5 points and Miami. This line is ridiculous. The two teams played a mini playoff game a few weeks ago. It came down to a game winning FG. Not sure how the Bills are favored by this much. I think the Bills should be favored by 6. This is with Tua playing. I have little doubt he won't play. 

Post the bet slip showing you wagered on the dolphins +10.5 prior to 6:47pm on 1/10, and whatever amount you bet I will match with a donation to Hamlin's charity, up to $50. I'll post the receipt as well. 

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, beebe said:

 

one of the worst posts i've read on this site. we're a week removed from "who cares about football" and "there's more important things in life" and right back to "let's capitalize on the fact that a concussed player is playing and try to take him out!"

 

the bills don't need to intentionally concuss or injure tua to win.

 

That guy might be the worst poster on here so don't mistake him for the fanbase. On Chief's Planet he'd be one of the good ones 😉

[Patrick Duffy]

3 minutes ago, Process said:

Post the bet slip showing you wagered on the dolphins +10.5 prior to 6:47pm on 1/10, and whatever amount you bet I will match with a donation to Hamlin's charity, up to $50. I'll post the receipt as well. 

 

Isn't he the same one few weeks ago was bragging about his bet and another poster asked him to post the receipt for proof.....and when he did post the receipt it was a whooping 5 dollar bet lol?

 

Think it was him anyways...

[BearNorth]

FWIW
Excluding each other, Bills and Dolphins played 11 common opponents

Bills in those 11 games were 9-2, Dolphins were 7-4.

Bills point differential in common games was +91.

Bills had a larger margin of victory in 8 of the 11 games.

[section122]

I just pulled up my draftkings and caesars app and the line is down to 9.5 with 90% of bets on buffalo.  I dont think that line moves like that unless tua is playing.

 

 

5 minutes ago, Patrick Duffy said:

 

Isn't he the same one few weeks ago was bragging about his bet and another poster asked him to post the receipt for proof.....and when he did post the receipt it was a whooping 5 dollar bet lol?

 

Think it was him anyways...

Hey i love my 5$ parlays lol

[BillsShredder83]

1 hour ago, The Frankish Reich said:

True. 
But there’s the Bridgewater factor too. 
So something like Dolphins + 7 with Tua starting (basically Bills 4 point faves on a neutral field). Dolphins + 10 with Teddy starting. Dolphins + 16 (more? He’s that bad) with Skyler Thompson starting. 

Try to “knock him around” bothers me too. 
Try to bring pressure to throw off that quick rhythm passing game? Yeah, I’m fine with that. Although you do risk not getting to him and letting Tyreek/Waddle break one for 70 yards. I prefer “try to disrupt the receivers to keep them from getting off the line cleanly.”

Dont want to see the guy hurt. However, it is not on us to change our gameplan to try and keep him safe, the same way our goal shouldnt be to hurt him.  Get after the qb, hit the way you would normally hit, better yet, get this guys injury completely outta your heads.

[TheBrownBear]

4 minutes ago, BearNorth said:

FWIW
Excluding each other, Bills and Dolphins played 11 common opponents

Bills in those 11 games were 9-2, Dolphins were 7-4.

Bills point differential in common games was +91.

Bills had a larger margin of victory in 8 of the 11 games.

Yes, but I've been told we stink now and the 7 game win streak is a farce since the Bengals were going to win that game by 35 points and we would have lost to the Pats if you took away two of our touchdowns.

[BearNorth]

Just now, TheBrownBear said:

Yes, but I've been told we stink now and the 7 game win streak is a farce since the Bengals were going to win that game by 35 points and we would have lost to the Pats if you took away two of our touchdowns.

I too am bemused by all the negativity.  Glad to see another Bear in these woods.

[Chuck Schick]

51 minutes ago, Patrick Duffy said:

How much you put down? 5 dollas ?
 

Please keep in mind that @newcam2012 fancies himself as some sort of Vegas insider.  This from the first Bills/Pats game a month or so back:

 

Just locked in the Pats at +4.5 points. Way too many points in what figures to be a close game. Taking the points has been the way to go. Outsiders just don't realize Josh is limited with his elbow. The Pats D is legit. Top 10 in every category. At home in a revenge game. Hopefully, Bills win by 3 or 4 points

$5 is about right


@