We're onto Miami(Miami's headed to Buffalo)...opening line BUF -10! Game at 1:05 PM SUN 1/15

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, section122 said:

I just pulled up my draftkings and caesars app and the line is down to 9.5 with 90% of bets on buffalo.  I dont think that line moves like that unless tua is playing.

 

 

So you think he has cleared the next stage in the protocol today and the Dolphins will announce tomorrow that is practicing but that someone has tipped the bookmakers off? 

 

9 minutes ago, TheBrownBear said:

Yes, but I've been told we stink now and the 7 game win streak is a farce since the Bengals were going to win that game by 35 points and we would have lost to the Pats if you took away two of our touchdowns.

 

It is the way on this board. If you scrutinise the Bills by a standard you don't apply to other teams you realise the Bills are worse than the other teams. 

 

That's math.

[nucci]

17 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:

Dont want to see the guy hurt. However, it is not on us to change our gameplan to try and keep him safe, the same way our goal shouldnt be to hurt him.  Get after the qb, hit the way you would normally hit, better yet, get this guys injury completely outta your heads.

went to Bills - Pats in Foxboro long ago vs Grogan. Players took it easy on him...he shouldn't have been playing.

[YattaOkasan]

2 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Maybe I’m taking crazy pills and I apologize if so lol but the 49ers really didn’t appear to be playing press man to me.  Brandon Staley even commented on how different the niners gameplan was.  They seemed to be playing what people around here call ‘the Leslie Frazier special’ lol lots of soft zone/cover 4 and cover 2 shell in the secondary and rushing 4…their linebackers tackled well and closed so fast on underneath throws though and they were stout against the run. Milano had a really bad night for us against the dolphins.  
 

Miami runs a lot of heavy sets that dare you to throw a third linebacker out there and we tried to ride it out in the nickel and had an awful night tackling 

 

 

Thanks. Appreciate the context I didn’t know what 49ers ran. Was countering some points from the other poster about running cover 2 against Miami.  He thought that was bad cause of the timing offense miami runs. I don’t disagree with the thought but our results disagree we can’t run cover 2. He said something about 49ers success and man coverage and I didn’t realize. I would expect us to continue to play nickel as taron has played every snap against Miami this year. With mostert having a thumb issue I think we stand a better chance in the run game. 

[billsintaiwan]

6 minutes ago, nucci said:

went to Bills - Pats in Foxboro long ago vs Grogan. Players took it easy on him...he shouldn't have been playing.

I remember that. He had a giant neck brace on and looked like he was going to crumble if anyone touched him.

[section122]

10 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So you think he has cleared the next stage in the protocol today and the Dolphins will announce tomorrow that is practicing but that someone has tipped the bookmakers off? 

 

 

It is the way on this board. If you scrutinise the Bills by a standard you don't apply to other teams you realise the Bills are worse than the other teams. 

 

That's math.

 

I wont say 100% but thats a weird move.  If 90% of the bets go on the bills you would expect it to move to 11 or 11.5.  With it coming down tuas return is the most likely reason imo. 

 

Is it unreasonable to think the dolphins will risk his long term health and push him through? I certainly expect him to play even though he shouldn't.

[nucci]

3 minutes ago, billsintaiwan said:

I remember that. He had a giant neck brace on and looked like he was going to crumble if anyone touched him.

yep...Leon Seals gently put him down if I recall

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, newcam2012 said:

I don't see this game as a blowout. I jumped all over the 10.5 points and Miami. This line is ridiculous. The two teams played a mini playoff game a few weeks ago. It came down to a game winning FG. Not sure how the Bills are favored by this much. I think the Bills should be favored by 6. This is with Tua playing. I have little doubt he won't play. 

 

So you went 8 bucks instead of 6 bucks this time?

[YattaOkasan]

9 hours ago, zow2 said:

 

The thing is,,, Gabe was so great last season and early this season at catching with his hands,, and he's always been a great toe tapper on the sidelines.  For whatever reason he's become a body-catcher, has the dropsies, and gets lost along the boundaries.  I guess it's a confidence thing. Mental.

I think it’s snaps. He has played nearly double the snaps from last year. I think it has taken a toll on him considering how much and who they ask him to block. 

[BearNorth]

Some of us may be forgetting that the Bills win vs. the Dolphins in Buffalo was really a 7 point win. 

 

Motor took a strategic knee at the Miami four with an open path to the end zone to prevent a repeat of 13 seconds or HomeRunThrowback. 

 

I suspect he was coached up about that very situation.

[Steptide]

What's with the all blue uniforms this season? I feel like they've worn those alot more than past seasons. I miss the blue tops with white bottoms 

[BearNorth]

2 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

I think it’s snaps. He has played nearly double the snaps from last year. I think it has taken a toll on him considering how much and who they ask him to block. 

He actually has nearly 100 more snaps than Diggs, which is interesting, with his 50% catch to target ratio.

[Playoffs?]

6 minutes ago, section122 said:

 

I wont say 100% but thats a weird move.  If 90% of the bets go on the bills you would expect it to move to 11 or 11.5.  With it coming down tuas return is the most likely reason imo. 

 

Is it unreasonable to think the dolphins will risk his long term health and push him through? I certainly expect him to play even though he shouldn't.

Yep I agree with this. I’d bet the farm Tua’s playing. They’re putting him out there. 
 

Was thinking, is there any chance Bills D would let up if they have Tua lined up for a clean, but very hard hit?  Especially after what happened in Cincy, there could be some hesitancy about giving him a life altering concussion…

I know it sounds crazy.

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

Just now, BearNorth said:

He actually has nearly 100 more snaps than Diggs, which is interesting, with his 50% catch to target ratio.

 

 They started that with Diggs last year after he entered the 2020 postseason beat up. 

 

 

 

 

[Patrick Duffy]

1 minute ago, Playoffs? said:

Yep I agree with this. I’d bet the farm Tua’s playing. They’re putting him out there. 
 

Was thinking, is there any chance Bills D would let up if they have Tua lined up for a clean, but very hard hit?  Especially after what happened in Cincy, there could be some hesitancy about giving him a life altering concussion…

I know it sounds crazy.

 

I would think no. You don't let up on anything come playoff time. 

[newcam2012]

9 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

So you went 8 bucks instead of 6 bucks this time?

100 bucks which is a lot for me. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

21 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Thanks. Appreciate the context I didn’t know what 49ers ran. Was countering some points from the other poster about running cover 2 against Miami.  He thought that was bad cause of the timing offense miami runs. I don’t disagree with the thought but our results disagree we can’t run cover 2. He said something about 49ers success and man coverage and I didn’t realize. I would expect us to continue to play nickel as taron has played every snap against Miami this year. With mostert having a thumb issue I think we stand a better chance in the run game. 

You’re not the only way to say that so it could be me just being wrong 😂

Edited January 11, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

5 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

I think it’s snaps. He has played nearly double the snaps from last year. I think it has taken a toll on him considering how much and who they ask him to block. 

 

 He entered the season in tip top shape and Beane called him a gym rat earlier this year. He said he works out so much, they actually had to ask him to throttle down some on it. I think he started dropping balls when he came back too quick from the ankle. I think it's mental now. If catches a couple early, he's good. If he drops a pass or 2 early in the game, he's toast from then on. 

 

 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

16 minutes ago, section122 said:

 

I wont say 100% but thats a weird move.  If 90% of the bets go on the bills you would expect it to move to 11 or 11.5.  With it coming down tuas return is the most likely reason imo. 

 

Is it unreasonable to think the dolphins will risk his long term health and push him through? I certainly expect him to play even though he shouldn't.

 

I just think it isn't entirely in their hands. The independant neurologist must clear him and given everything that happened in that first Bills game and the Damar incident (not a concussion obviously but general optics around player safety) there will be no risks taken. I think he is only getting cleared if he actually should be cleared. 

 

Now maybe be will be cleared. But at the moment he is not out there at practice so he is at best in stage 2 of the protocol. If he isn't at least in stage 3 by tomorrow which is "football specific exercise" then the chances of him being through stage 3, 4 and to stage 5 (where he is cleared by the club doctor and the independent neurologist) by Sunday is slim to none. 

 

Maybe someone has tipped them off that he is at stage 3 and will practice tomorrow. But he kinda needs to be or else it points pretty strongly towards him not playing.

Edited January 11, 2023 by GunnerBill

[newcam2012]

38 minutes ago, Chuck Schick said:

Please keep in mind that @newcam2012 fancies himself as some sort of Vegas insider.  This from the first Bills/Pats game a month or so back:

 

Just locked in the Pats at +4.5 points. Way too many points in what figures to be a close game. Taking the points has been the way to go. Outsiders just don't realize Josh is limited with his elbow. The Pats D is legit. Top 10 in every category. At home in a revenge game. Hopefully, Bills win by 3 or 4 points

$5 is about right


@

Never made such a claim nor do I think that. Just like to give my opinion. You are free to disagree and or point out my wrongfulness. Doesn't bother me in the least. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

I just think it isn't entirely in their hands. The independant neurologist must clear him and given everything that happened in that first Bills game and the Damar incident there will be no risks taken. I think he is only getting cleared if he actually should be cleared. 

 

Now maybe be will be cleared. But at the moment he is not out there at practice so he is at best in stage 2 of the protocol. If he isn't at least in stage 3 by tomorrow which is "football specific exercise" then the chances of him being through stage 3, 4 and to stage 5 (where he is cleared by the club doctor and the independent neurologist) by Sunday is slim to none. 

 

Maybe someone has tipped them off that he is at stage 3 and will practice tomorrow. But he kinda needs to be or else it points pretty strongly towards him not playing.

There’s a small chance he’s medically cleared and still doesn’t play.  That dolphins oline could be Swiss cheese depending on if armstead/shell play.  The re injury risk is pretty high if he’s medically cleared or not.  
 

im not sure if we’d ever find out he was medically cleared in that case though cuz their fans would probably go ballistic if they knew 

[AlfaBill]

8 minutes ago, Playoffs? said:

Yep I agree with this. I’d bet the farm Tua’s playing. They’re putting him out there. 
 

Was thinking, is there any chance Bills D would let up if they have Tua lined up for a clean, but very hard hit?  Especially after what happened in Cincy, there could be some hesitancy about giving him a life altering concussion…

I know it sounds crazy.

I think when it comes to hitting the qb players met up already. Wouldn’t be surprised if they go more so against tua 

[TheBrownBear]

13 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

I think it’s snaps. He has played nearly double the snaps from last year. I think it has taken a toll on him considering how much and who they ask him to block. 

The guy is a 24 year old three year NFL vet.  It ain't because of too many snaps.  Now, he may still have lingering ankle issues or some other underlying injury that hasn't popped up on the weekly report that's negatively impacting his play, but I don't think it's "fatigue."

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

There’s a small chance he’s medically cleared and still doesn’t play.  That dolphins oline could be Swiss cheese depending on if armstead/shell play.  The re injury risk is pretty high if he’s medically cleared or not.  
 

im not sure if we’d ever find out he was medically cleared in that case though cuz their fans would probably go ballistic if they knew 

 

If he is cleared Miami will 100% play him IMO. Whether they should or not is a different matter.

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, Process said:

Post the bet slip showing you wagered on the dolphins +10.5 prior to 6:47pm on 1/10, and whatever amount you bet I will match with a donation to Hamlin's charity, up to $50. I'll post the receipt as well. 

Lol. It's ok if you dont believe me. I don't have anything to prove. 

[TheBrownBear]

1 minute ago, newcam2012 said:

Lol. It's ok if you dont believe me. I don't have anything to prove. 

Just post it and raise another $50 for Damar's charity. Seems simple enough.

[section122]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I just think it isn't entirely in their hands. The independant neurologist must clear him and given everything that happened in that first Bills game and the Damar incident (not a concussion obviously but general optics around player safety) there will be no risks taken. I think he is only getting cleared if he actually should be cleared. 

 

Now maybe be will be cleared. But at the moment he is not out there at practice so he is at best in stage 2 of the protocol. If he isn't at least in stage 3 by tomorrow which is "football specific exercise" then the chances of him being through stage 3, 4 and to stage 5 (where he is cleared by the club doctor and the independent neurologist) by Sunday is slim to none. 

 

Maybe someone has tipped them off that he is at stage 3 and will practice tomorrow. But he kinda needs to be or else it points pretty strongly towards him not playing.

 

I know it isnt the end all be all but I saw on reddit that he is already in stage 3 and was before the game against the jets.  I can't find anything definitive though.  

[WideNine]

5 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Tua being that much better than bridgewater is exaggerated imo. They have different skill sets which gave tua a big edge early while there wasn’t much film on the new look dolphins offense but the diminishing returns were huge.  He’s accurate and he gets rid of the ball quick but teams wised up to where he likes to go with the football.  Bridgewater is better at going through reads and improvising when a play breaks down.  

 

tua is just always injured for tough defensive matchups which makes the total win/loss of the various qbs argument completely meaningless.  The bills and ravens defenses were absolutely decimated by injuries early in the year then tua got a long string of layup games.  

 

Bridgewater/Thompson started against NYJ X 2 and NE behind a very shoddy oline due to injuries.  the Vikings d was gettable and bridgewater moved the ball fine he just had a couple tough turnovers.  Vs cincy, bridgewater actually looked better than tua when he came in in the second half. So out of the 5 games tua missed, 3 were against great defenses,1 was against a good defense, and one was against a good team with a bad defense 
 

tua would’ve looked horrible also in the NYJ game last weekend.   I thought Thompson played pretty well considering.  No armstead or Brandon shell, no mostert, and tyreek hill and waddle were both far from 100% 

 

If we saw tua light up the jets once maybe the vibe would be different,  but he mostly ran up the score against terrible teams imo.  

 

I like Tua, and believe that there is an overall drop with his backups.

 

BUT there is also a very significant drop in completion rate when comparing Tua's throws on schedule with the middle open, and Tua forced to reset and throw off schedule and off platform to areas not normally in his read progressions.

 

Some say that applies to all QBs, but I get the sense that Allen is actually more comfortable when plays break down and he has to get creative on the move outside the pocket...

 

Their offense got a bit tougher for us to defend when they added more run balance, but for the most part we played our nickel personnel.

 

Folks have tried to jam Hill and Waddle to mess up the timing,, but Miami has adjusted by playing them off the line in bunch formations or giving them a full head of steam by motioning them.

 

We don't really have our DBs jam WRs.

 

 

There is not really a terrible team in the AFC East this year. They are all teams that can be competitive.

 

One game at a time - go Bills!

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 11, 2023 by WideNine

[Casey D]

Just now, section122 said:

 

I know it isnt the end all be all but I saw on reddit that he is already in stage 3 and was before the game against the jets.  I can't find anything definitive though.  

He's been in stage 3 for two weeks, but has not progressed or seen a football field in three weeks.

[Donuts and Doritos]

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/is-tua-playing-sunday-curious-dolphins-vs-bills-line-movement-might-be-a-sign

[YattaOkasan]

18 minutes ago, BearNorth said:

Some of us may be forgetting that the Bills win vs. the Dolphins in Buffalo was really a 7 point win. 

 

Motor took a strategic knee at the Miami four with an open path to the end zone to prevent a repeat of 13 seconds or HomeRunThrowback. 

 

I suspect he was coached up about that very situation.

Agree and is even bigger if we don’t have roughing the kicker

17 minutes ago, BearNorth said:

He actually has nearly 100 more snaps than Diggs, which is interesting, with his 50% catch to target ratio.

Yup. I make the analogy of Diggs is the Ferrari and Davis is the commuter car. You ask the commuter to do things you wouldn’t ask of the Ferrari. Also I don’t care how old you are NFL snaps take a toll. So to double them is not a small thing. 

[nucci]

1 minute ago, Donuts and Doritos said:

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/is-tua-playing-sunday-curious-dolphins-vs-bills-line-movement-might-be-a-sign

or it might not

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, section122 said:

 

I know it isnt the end all be all but I saw on reddit that he is already in stage 3 and was before the game against the jets.  I can't find anything definitive though.  

 

Okay. Well that gives him more chance. 

[Playoffs?]

3 minutes ago, Donuts and Doritos said:

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/is-tua-playing-sunday-curious-dolphins-vs-bills-line-movement-might-be-a-sign

I believe this.. especially if the rumor is true that the bets have actually been on Buffalo.   I’ve said it since Sunday… no way Miami is not putting Tua on the field, whether he’s truly ready or not. They haven’t won a playoff game in like 20 years.  They’ll do anything they can. 

[gtw3]

Playoff Josh + Dolphins game Josh = Postseason Passing Records in Jeopardy

 

It's simple math

[Freddie's Dead]

The Dolphins QB as a young man:

 

[section122]

7 minutes ago, Playoffs? said:

I believe this.. especially if the rumor is true that the bets have actually been on Buffalo.   I’ve said it since Sunday… no way Miami is not putting Tua on the field, whether he’s truly ready or not. They haven’t won a playoff game in like 20 years.  They’ll do anything they can. 

 

Its not a rumor draftkings posts the stats for each game.  To throw more gas on the fire, stephen ross used to be part owner of action network that was linked above.

[co_springs_billsfan]

15 minutes ago, Donuts and Doritos said:

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/is-tua-playing-sunday-curious-dolphins-vs-bills-line-movement-might-be-a-sign

The fix is in

[Playoffs?]

1 minute ago, section122 said:

 

Its not a rumor draftkings posts the stats for each game.  To throw more gas on the fire, stephen ross used to be part owner of action network that was linked above.

Interesting. 
Well… get to work, Bills.  Game on!  
The Fins are bringing up their A team.  Smoke ‘em.

[Joe Ferguson]

If Bills were smart, they would bench Devin Singletary in the playoffs to avoid the fumbles.

[VaMilBill]

Just now, Joe Ferguson said:

If Bills were smart, they would bench Devin Singletary in the playoffs to avoid the fumbles.

Or they would start Cook because he’s clearly the better back. Singletary’s only advantage over Jimbo is his pass blocking.