Week 8: SNF Packers at Bills (-10.5) 10/30 8:20pm

[Process]

Edit...

 

Started this as a betting line thread last week but changed the title to make it the weekly game thread since it kind of turned into that on its own.

 

CRUSH THE PACKERS AND RODGERS!!!

 

............

 

Going into the season I knew the Bills were the best team in the league.

 

I would not have expected us to be more than a TD favorite vs the Packers, and wouldn't have expected me to feel confident that we win by 14+. The Packers are a bad, bad team.

 

Obviously things could change with the Packers playing this weekend but I expect the money to be on Buffalo.

 

 

Kiss 8.5 goodbye. Now -10.5. Damn. 

Edited October 25, 2022 by Process

[DollaBills]

Packers have been paper tigers for a few years now. Now they are just listless. Going to be amazing night game hopefully with Tre returning

[Albwan]

[Southern_Bills]

Agreed, but the line has way more to do with how the Packers are playing. 

 

The Bills are who they thought they were, the Packers are not.

[DollaBills]

1 minute ago, Albwan said:

Bills D line is going to absolutely tee off fresh off the bye

[Scott7975]

Honestly I think it should be more.  I think people just think GB is in a slump.  I dont think its a slump. I think its Rodgers is getting old and they traded away the weapons.

[Rico]

Could be a Sammy Watkins revenge game if he can make it back by then, the spread may drop.

[eball]

Just now, Rico said:

Could be a Sammy Watkins revenge game if he can make it back by then, the spread may drop.

 

LOL -- revenge for what?  We drafted him high, paid him, and then traded him to a playoff team!

[Royale with Cheese]

4 minutes ago, Rico said:

Could be a Sammy Watkins revenge game if he can make it back by then, the spread may drop.

 

He will be hungover for the game.

[loveorhatembillsfan4life]

Randal Cobb is supposed to be out 2-4 weeks with an ankle injury. 
 

He is pretty much Rodgers most reliable go to guy. 

[Gugny]

14 minutes ago, Rico said:

Could be a Sammy Watkins revenge game if he can make it back by then, the spread may drop.

 

“To all the people that have a problem with me being injured you guys go out there and play this sport it’s a 100% injury rate.” “I’m not first or last person that’s gone be injured difference from me and you guys y’all mad and I’m not get a life and goto work stop worrying about my job because I’m good on this end and forever will be losers most of you just wish to be in this position so continue working y’all little jobs for the rest of y’all lives since everyone once a response here go one have a blessed day.”

[PonyBoy]

15 minutes ago, eball said:

 

LOL -- revenge for what?  We drafted him high, paid him, and then traded him to a playoff team!

However, I'm sure Sammy sore hammy Watkins will say somehow the Bills disrespected him. 

[PonyBoy]

10 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

“To all the people that have a problem with me being injured you guys go out there and play this sport it’s a 100% injury rate.” “I’m not first or last person that’s gone be injured difference from me and you guys y’all mad and I’m not get a life and goto work stop worrying about my job because I’m good on this end and forever will be losers most of you just wish to be in this position so continue working y’all little jobs for the rest of y’all lives since everyone once a response here go one have a blessed day.”

Only June Cleaver could understand this jive.😀

[L Ron Burgundy]

I could be wrong but I think the Pack will improve.   They're the kind of team that can rattle off a huge win streak once things fall into place.

[Rico]

15 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

“To all the people that have a problem with me being injured you guys go out there and play this sport it’s a 100% injury rate.” “I’m not first or last person that’s gone be injured difference from me and you guys y’all mad and I’m not get a life and goto work stop worrying about my job because I’m good on this end and forever will be losers most of you just wish to be in this position so continue working y’all little jobs for the rest of y’all lives since everyone once a response here go one have a blessed day.”

Yeah, but he did end it with "have a blessed day", that was nice.

[Process]

Just now, L Ron Burgundy said:

I could be wrong but I think the Pack will improve.   They're the kind of team that can rattle off a huge win streak once things fall into place.

Last three weeks they barely beat a third string QB in OT, lost to the Giants, got blown out by the Jets. 

 

They have nowhere to go but up so yes they will improve. It won't start vs the Bills coming of a bye on SNF.

[TPS]

Their D is solid.  They lead the NFL in pass yards defense, so that aspect of the game should be interesting.

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

1 minute ago, TPS said:

Their D is solid.  They lead the NFL in pass yards defense, so that aspect of the game should be interesting.

 

 And we have the only starting QB in the league averaging over 300 yards a game(Believe or not Flacco averaged 300.3 in 3 starts). I don't think this game will be close and the fans will be going nuts with it being a night game, first game since beating KC and not seeing our team play in 2 weeks. Josh 341 yards passing, 48 yards rushing, 3 passing tds and 2 rushing tds. Bills - 48 Pack - 17.

 

 

[Bills2022]

8.5 points is a lot because you can get beat by that back door cover when you lead by 14, 15, or 16.  The Packers are an odd team.  They won't beat the Bills, but they have moments in games where they look very good.  Their losses are to solid football teams.  Vikings, Giants, and Jets.  

[wppete]

Right now I’ll take the -8.5 against GB at home. 

[YoloinOhio]

Vegas cannot get the public to bet against the Bills. This is a desperate move to try to get them to jump on it 

[Patrick Duffy]

1 hour ago, DollaBills said:

Packers have been paper tigers for a few years now. Now they are just listless. Going to be amazing night game hopefully with Tre returning

 

Yeah gona be an insane welcome for Tre. Would be awesome if Tre not only returns that game, but also gets an INT in his first game returned....!!

Edited October 18, 2022 by Patrick Duffy

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

7 minutes ago, Bills2022 said:

8.5 points is a lot because you can get beat by that back door cover when you lead by 14, 15, or 16.  The Packers are an odd team.  They won't beat the Bills, but they have moments in games where they look very good.  Their losses are to solid football teams.  Vikings, Giants, and Jets.  

 

 The offenses GB has faced and where they're rank in total offense:

 

Vikings - 19th

Bears - 28th

Bucs - 23rd

Pats*** - 13th

Giants - 25th

Jets - 17th

 

4 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Vegas cannot get the public to bet against the Bills. This is a desperate move to try to get them to jump on it 

 

It's not desperate, they're actually saying GB is as good as the Chiefs. We were favored by 2.5 at Arrowhead, would've been 5.5 at a neutral site and 8.5 at Buffalo.

 

 

[DCbillsfan]

1 hour ago, Gugny said:

 

“To all the people that have a problem with me being injured you guys go out there and play this sport it’s a 100% injury rate.” “I’m not first or last person that’s gone be injured difference from me and you guys y’all mad and I’m not get a life and goto work stop worrying about my job because I’m good on this end and forever will be losers most of you just wish to be in this position so continue working y’all little jobs for the rest of y’all lives since everyone once a response here go one have a blessed day.”

One more thing - the Earth is flat.

Love, Sammy

[Bills2022]

25 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

It's not desperate, they're actually saying GB is as good as the Chiefs. We were favored by 2.5 at Arrowhead, would've been 5.5 at a neutral site and 8.5 at Buffalo.

 

 

 

That is not what they are saying.  By that reasoning we would only be a 2.5 point favorite at Green Bay.  Vegas does not set lines that way.  The 3 point home field stuff is nonsense.  This former Caesar's Palace guy explained it perfectly.    They use a baseline power number for each time (Science) and then they use their experience and feel to adjust it a little if needed (Art). 

 

The Line: How Does Vegas Set Odds? - Sports Illustrated

 

https://www.si.com/betting/video/2018/08/24/line-how-does-vegas-set-odds

 

Edited October 18, 2022 by Bills2022

[Process]

23 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

 The offenses GB has faced and where they're rank in total offense:

 

Vikings - 19th

Bears - 28th

Bucs - 23rd

Pats*** - 13th

Giants - 25th

Jets - 17th

 

 

It's not desperate, they're actually saying GB is as good as the Chiefs. We were favored by 2.5 at Arrowhead, would've been 5.5 at a neutral site and 8.5 at Buffalo.

 

 

They definitely are not saying that. 3 points for home teams is old thinking.

[MarlinTheMagician]

Humble and hungry - 

 

[Alphadawg7]

I expect to sack Rodgers 6 times and win this game by at least 3 scores. 

 

At the same time, it's still Aaron Rodgers who is pissed off coming off an embarrassing loss against the Jets.  On paper, that D should be better than its been playing. 

 

Moral of the story:  THE BILLS BETTER NOT TAKE THIS GAME LIGHTLY.

[Shortchaz]

Only thing that could slow the bills down is weather or injury. 

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

19 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I expect to sack Rodgers 6 times and win this game by at least 3 scores. 

 

At the same time, it's still Aaron Rodgers who is pissed off coming off an embarrassing loss against the Jets.  On paper, that D should be better than its been playing. 

 

Moral of the story:  THE BILLS BETTER NOT TAKE THIS GAME LIGHTLY.

 

For as much as I hear about a team being pissed off and dangerous following an embarrassing loss I wonder if there's any statistical evidence that this is a factor.  If anything I would guess that demoralizing losses just lead to more losing.

[hemma]

2 hours ago, Gugny said:

 

“To all the people that have a problem with me being injured you guys go out there and play this sport it’s a 100% injury rate.” “I’m not first or last person that’s gone be injured difference from me and you guys y’all mad and I’m not get a life and goto work stop worrying about my job because I’m good on this end and forever will be losers most of you just wish to be in this position so continue working y’all little jobs for the rest of y’all lives since everyone once a response here go one have a blessed day.”

 

Stream of unconsciousness

[RocCityRoller]

I really want GB to win this weekend so the Bills do not face a desperate and focused Rodgers the week later.

 

Say what you want to, a desperate Rodgers/ GB is not a good team to face.

 

That said otherwise Bills by a lot.

[Low Positive]

38 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I expect to sack Rodgers 6 times and win this game by at least 3 scores. 

 

At the same time, it's still Aaron Rodgers who is pissed off coming off an embarrassing loss against the Jets.  On paper, that D should be better than its been playing. 

 

Moral of the story:  THE BILLS BETTER NOT TAKE THIS GAME LIGHTLY.

They won’t be coming off that loss. They play at Washington on Sunday.

[clayboy54]

1 hour ago, L Ron Burgundy said:

I could be wrong but I think the Pack will improve.   They're the kind of team that can rattle off a huge win streak once things fall into place.

What’s gonna fall in place? A nuke?

[Process]

5 minutes ago, RocCityRoller said:

I really want GB to win this weekend so the Bills do not face a desperate and focused Rodgers the week later.

 

Say what you want to, a desperate Rodgers/ GB is not a good team to face.

 

That said otherwise Bills by a lot.

I want the Packers to win so I can get better odds on Bills -16.5

[The Red King]

1 hour ago, Bills2022 said:

Their losses are to solid football teams.  Vikings, Giants, and Jets.  

 

Let the gravitas of that statement sink in. 😆

[aristocrat]

2 hours ago, TPS said:

Their D is solid.  They lead the NFL in pass yards defense, so that aspect of the game should be interesting.

Have you seen the qbs they’ve played?

[RiotAct]

2 hours ago, Rico said:

Could be a Sammy Watkins revenge game if he can make it back by then, the spread may drop.

oh, @Rico.

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I expect to sack Rodgers 6 times and win this game by at least 3 scores. 

 

At the same time, it's still Aaron Rodgers who is pissed off coming off an embarrassing loss against the Jets.  On paper, that D should be better than its been playing. 

 

Moral of the story:  THE BILLS BETTER NOT TAKE THIS GAME LIGHTLY.

remember, the Packers play the Redskins this Sunday.  If they lose -that- game too, they’ll be even more pissed.  BUT, it doesn’t really matter.  We’re gonna beat them anyway.

[SACTOBILLSFAN]

2 hours ago, L Ron Burgundy said:

I could be wrong but I think the Pack will improve.   They're the kind of team that can rattle off a huge win streak once things fall into place.

In years past I would agree with you, but this year, not only are the results bad, but all of their underlying metrics are bad. I won't be on the spread but I already grabbed some under 47.5 in this one.

[DCofNC]

Meh, seems low to me.