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Everything posted by SACTOBILLSFAN

  1. Because passing is far and away more efficient than even the greatest running game. When you have a QB like Josh Allen calling more run plays should never be a thing. That being said, this team throws more than league trends would indicate, but they've been horrendous on 1st and 2nd downs because of this weird fascination with YAC. Josh is most effective pushing the ball down the field and its not particularly close. EDIT: I mentioned it in another thread but the Ravens have a horrific pass defense on intermediate and deep passes but best in the league at stopping short passes, yet we insisted on throwing short for the entire first half. It's why Josh's numbers look bad if you're just box score scouting.
  2. On the re-watch, holy crap the Ravens were absolutely mugging Diggs the entire game.
  3. Be a real shame if he rolled over all his Miami ML winnings into Baltimore +160 today and then hammered the live line when they were up 20-3.
  4. Lol 2x the league average on 3rd and long at almost 70% is not sustainable in any form or fashion. If you believe that it is, you don't watch enough football.
  5. I’m still concerned with the offense. They’re so so unproductive on early downs that it’s putting them in a spot where the best QB in the league has to bail them out. They’re currently converting at more than 2X the league average in 3rd and 7+. That’s not sustainable at all.
  6. Baltimore has a garbage defense, but the one thing they're elite at is short pass defense and we continue to go to short passing plays. Our coaches are morons.
  7. Lol overreact? They're getting the ***** kicked out of them because they're once again not prepared.
  8. It's a surprise. They're getting out coached bad again. Their early down success rate on offense is bottom of the barrel and they relied on Josh to bail them out on 3rd and long and have changed NOTHING.
  9. This is going to get ugly today. They're completely unprepared on both sides.
  10. This is an atrocious spot for the Dolphins. I just hate the number.
  11. not to mention Zac Taylor is a certified moron that has no business holding that job and I think the dolphins actually have a good coach.
  12. Rain usually hurts passing offenses far less than running offenses when it’s on grass like at M&T. This is especially true when the WRs in the game are great route runners. So, that SHOULD benefit Allen and Diggs. However, the winds will be blowing directly across the field from forecast I see and that impacts throwing and kicking a great deal. But if it’s just gusty and not a sustained 15 mph cross wind I don’t see it hampering the Bills’ ability to throw all that much but we’ll see more of those short quick passes than deep shots.
  13. They do not try to balance the money coming in anymore. You know why? More recreational gamblers are in the space and they're not going to open themselves up to professionals with large bankrolls hammering a bad number because of "balance"
  14. Do you know what a truly elite CB is worth to a point spread? It's around 0.75 points and I'm talking a dude like Jaire Alexander. The cluster injuries are a concern, of course, but over valuing a player when it comes to overall team performance is why the public gets absolutely smoked betting NFL games.
  15. Give me the Bills -110 for $1100, then. The Ravens defense is atrocious. I make it Bills -5.5 with the guys we know are definitely out next week. Lol no. This is how they build those big fancy buildings in the desert, when casuals completely overreact to a single data point. The Bills might lose but the look ahead line was Bills -4, so this is a half point move with the performance and almost entirely due to injuries. You should bet your house at Ravens +3.5 if you believe the Bills are actually underdogs. Bet the house then. You're getting a home team you believe is better on the plus side of the biggest key number in NFL betting.
  16. Terron Armstead not playing is probably the biggest single injury for either team and he was DNP all week but still listed as questionable in the final report. The cluster injuries for the Bills are, of course, how great teams are brought down. But, if I had to pick a place for a Frazier/McD defense to be hit with them it would be the secondary, and I still don't think Miami will be able to run the ball even with Phillips and Oliver out.
  17. With the amount they have to drive with their lower body I’d doubt it’s less important. Even for big interior DL that just try to hold their spot the glutes and hams are super important.
  18. If you blindly bet under on team win totals of 10 or more and over on teams with totals of 5 or more, you hit like 60% of the time. If they Bills go 11-6 they fall under their Vegas win totals, and 11-6 is still a great season. Sharp is fantastic when it comes to dissecting analytics and playcalling trends, but this is just low hanging fruit.
  19. The Bills are not getting an alternate uniform/helmet this year, correct?
  20. The same reason you rarely see torn labrum injuries in QBs as a result of throwing. The arm path is completely different and the overall stress on the UCL isn’t near the same as a baseball player. Every pitch is thrown with maximum intent and passes in football are not. The power generated through the kinetic chain from ankle flexion all the way through hip and shoulder separation to external rotation in the shoulder then finally into the elbow is exponentially higher in baseball. I have Modus data to back this up but it’s just charts and graphs and not great for this format. For a visual just imagine in your head how a pitcher finishes off every pitch and how a QB finishes every throw. One is considerably more violent than the other. Pitchers have much more in common with javelin throwers than QBs when it comes to arm and shoulder stress and studying javelin throwing was how many breakthroughs in velocity happened. And as many people have mentioned in this thread, the overall difference in the number of reps in a game or practice is vast. Without taking into account spring and offseason work a starting professional pitcher will throw 5000ish pitches in season. Even the most sparsely used relievers will throw at a volume that QBs just don’t see.
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