Breaking: Von Miller to bills, 6 year , 120 million

[theRalph]

Von Miller heard the Bills were in the market for a defensive GAME WRECKER.

 

Now, we have said GAME WRECKERS on both sides of the ball. 

 

Now, THE FEAR has arrived in the offices of Bills' opponents.

 

P.S. Nice that his name is one letter off of the original Voice of the Bills: The VAN.

 

 

[Draconator]

I'd take the penalty if he does this to Mahomes, Wilson, Jones, Tua, take your pick

 

 

[BillnutinHouston]

36 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

So of course, the details of the contract aren't out except this:

 

 

 

This is a good reminder that our ownership is absolutely committed to a Super Bowl and willing to pay for it. 

 

[Mikie's Bills]

35 minutes ago, nbbillsfan said:

I’m sorry if this has been answered…

 

I see the contrast is essentially 3 yrs $53 million. Chandler jones got 3 yrs $52.5 million. Which contracts structure is more team friendly and hoe does Vons extra years work?

The trade-off is that Von's 1st year of the deal will be a low cap hit for us so we can fit it into our limited cap space (spreading the signing bonus over 6 years instead of 3). We will have dead cap on the books (how much remains to be seen) for the last 2-3 years of the deal when it's likely he'll be cut because he is no longer worth the money.

 

Chandler's deal is more friendly to a team that can afford his large cap number this year. And obviously the Raiders don't have to worry about any dead money if he remains productive and healthy for the next 3 years.

 

Assuming we get 3 years out of Von we could be looking at dead cap hits of $15M in year 4, $10M in year 5, $5M in year 6 (pure guesses). Obviously not ideal but Beane is banking on the cap going up dramatically over the next few years so those numbers will hurt less than they do now. Still, opportunity cost is that we will most likely miss out on signing some of our own and other FAs as dead money starts to pile up in future years.

[aristocrat]

10 minutes ago, BillnutinHouston said:

 

This is a good reminder that our ownership is absolutely committed to a Super Bowl and willing to pay for it. 

 

 

I mean the state just gave them a billion dollars so they can make more money off the team so this is the splash they wanted to distract us all from the new stadium. 

[BillsFanSD]

1 hour ago, PatsFanNH said:

A fluke? Neither team had a D that game. It was horrible… wasn’t flukey but it was terrible D.. 

No, it was two teams that each feature an elite, tier 1 QB playing at the top of his game.  I know it's been a couple of years since you've seen what that looks like, so I can see why you'd be confused.

 

Wait, what am I talking about?  You got a close look at high-quality QB play during WC weekend.

Edited March 17, 2022 by BillsFanSD

[PetermansRedemption]

14 minutes ago, Draconator said:

I'd take the penalty if he does this to Mahomes, Wilson, Jones, Tua, take your pick

 

 

Still one of the funniest penalties I’ve ever seen. Such a garbage call as he was clearly joking around with him and had no ill intent. 

[Tenhigh]

10 hours ago, ndirish1978 said:

I just want Von and Ed Oliver to ride horses to the stadium together. 

 

 

Reminds me of the video of the guy skateboarding to work drinking cranberry juice.  

[Not at the table Karlos]

17 minutes ago, Draconator said:

I'd take the penalty if he does this to Mahomes, Wilson, Jones, Tua, take your pick

 

 

I was so mad they threw that flag there. It won us the game but it felt cheap(Von has been my favorite player in the league until Josh came)

Edited March 17, 2022 by Not at the table Karlos

[FilthyBeast]

Still can't believe this has really happened.

 

Kudos to Beane for doing what needed to be done and putting this team in prime position to finally win a SB this year.

[Coach Tuesday]

46 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

I am happy we still have our picks. Watching the Bills play last season, I never got the sense that it was our year. Now, it is starting to feel like this team is being set up to take that next step. 

 

Imagine adding a playmaker like Jameson Williams next month on top of all of this.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

44 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

I hate to be Eeyore - that's not usually the role I play - but I don't like this signing.   

 

Look at the production of pass rushers post 33yo.  Von Miller is still a great player but the decline is inevitable.  

 

And then there's the opportunity cost.  What players will we pass up because  so much money is tied up in Von?   That's my worry.

 

But, as others have pointed out, the devil is in the (contract) details.  If VM averages 10 sacks for the next few years and the real deal is 4 years at 17mill/year....  maybe Von is almost worth his price.

 

If you take details reported to date - $45M guaranteed at signing, $51.5 guaranteed overall, and look at the way Beane has structured other contracts...

Josh Allen's for example, which is the same length but 2x the cost....Beane likes to layer signing, option, and roster bonuses to kick in on different years.

He likes to keep salary low the first couple of years, then have a big jump in salary (but the possibility to convert it to signing bonus and spread it out exists).  Sometimes the roster bonuses are fully guaranteed at signing, as a way to spread out the cap hit of a roster bonus but still guarantee the player his $$.  For example, Allen has a $6M 2024 roster bonus that became fully guaranteed on 8/11/2021!  Beane did this with Tre White as well IIRC.

 

I don't want to speculate, but it's entirely possible that, while the contract averages $17M/yr over the next three years, the cap hit this season is $10M or less.

 

As far as production, I'd also like to point out that most of the elite pass rushers have more than one player on the line who has to be contained as a threat.  Miller's last double-digit sack season with the Broncos (2018) included Bradley Chubb and Derek Wolfe.  The next year, when Chubb was injured and played only 4 games, Miller's production fell a bit.  So how productive Miller is may depend upon Rousseau and Oliver and anyone else Beane adds - if Settle turns out to be a hidden gem or if Basham takes a step or if Beane drafts someone.

 

Edit: link to Josh Allen's contract so anyone curious can see the kind of layering I'm referencing

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/josh-allen-25102/

Tre' White's contract had similar elements, this an example of how Beane appears to like to structure long, large contracts.

 

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Im late but YAY !!

 

 

[Logic]

I was curious about the level of production of elite pass rushers at age 33 and beyond, so I went and looked at the stats of Bruce Smith and Reggie White.

 

At ages 33-37, Bruce had 13.5, 14, 10, 7, and 10 sacks.

 

At age 33-37, Reggie White had 8, 12, 8.5, 11, and 16 sacks.

 

You may say “but Logic, those are two Hall of Famers, of course they still produced!”. To which I would say that Von Miller will be a first ballot Hall of Famer, too, and that was why I looked at those two guys. I wanted to see how some elite, HOF edge rushers produced as they aged.

 

I’m not saying Miller is going to be as productive as those guys, but it is not out of the realm of possibility, either.

[newcam2012]

18 minutes ago, Mikie's Bills said:

The trade-off is that Von's 1st year of the deal will be a low cap hit for us so we can fit it into our limited cap space (spreading the signing bonus over 6 years instead of 3). We will have dead cap on the books (how much remains to be seen) for the last 2-3 years of the deal when it's likely he'll be cut because he is no longer worth the money.

 

Chandler's deal is more friendly to a team that can afford his large cap number this year. And obviously the Raiders don't have to worry about any dead money if he remains productive and healthy for the next 3 years.

 

Assuming we get 3 years out of Von we could be looking at dead cap hits of $15M in year 4, $10M in year 5, $5M in year 6 (pure guesses). Obviously not ideal but Beane is banking on the cap going up dramatically over the next few years so those numbers will hurt less than they do now. Still, opportunity cost is that we will most likely miss out on signing some of our own and other FAs as dead money starts to pile up in future years.

Fantastic breakdown. Thanks. Sounds like longer term risk vs immediate rewards. 

[nucci]

2 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Fantastic breakdown. Thanks. Sounds like longer term risk vs immediate rewards. 

how is it fantastic? He admitted the dead cap hits are pure guess

[JohnBonhamRocks]

Need: Rick Jeanneret’s “MILLERRRRRR” playing at the stadium every time he makes a play

[Draconator]

 

 

1 minute ago, JohnBonhamRocks said:

Need: Rick Jeanneret’s “MILLERRRRRR” playing at the stadium every time he makes a play

 

[Scott7975]

Some Bills fans will be pissed off about anything.  Beane sucks, he has no big signings.  Beane sucks he over paid.  Big signings are usually over paid.  Contracts are also not always contracts.  Von Miller won't see 6 years.  Just sit back and relax. This team could have won a super bowl last year and they just got better.

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, SWATeam said:

So this cements that we play the opening game, right?

 

I would still bet on the Broncos. QBs are the big ticket items. The NFL won't turn down the opportunity to showcase Russell Wilson's return to the NFC West in the first game of the year.

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, newcam2012 said:

I fully understand your point. Let me try to unbottle your mind. I  overreacted to the signing. I just saw headlines of 6 years 20 mil without knowing the details. My mistake. Several here have pointed justly made that point. Some nice and professional others not so much. 

 

As I've stated I don't hate the signing. My eyeball test as stated before doesn't see Miller as elite but 2021 statistics show that he is. So it's probably safer to say my eyes aren't seeing things accurately. However, stats can be deceiving.

 

It remains to be seen how good he will be as a Bill. 

 

Hope that helps 

The “eyeball test”….. so it’s safe to assume you didn’t watch him in the playoffs?  He was a savage all postseason.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Just now, nucci said:

how is it fantastic? He admitted the dead cap hits are pure guess

 

I dunno about fantastic, but the some of the points are germaine about the difference between how a cap-rich team will structure a contract to hit heavily in the first year and perhaps evenly over 3 years, but how a cap-tight team will "roll the can down the road" to trade a low initial cap hit for the risk of the cap/performance ratio going out of whack in later years. 

 

I think the germaine point is that if the contract contains $45M guaranteed at signing, $51.5M guaranteed overall, it's not unreasonable to look at it as a 3 year, $51.5M contract ($17M/yr) where some of the cost is "kicked down the road" into the final years. 

 

Beane has shown himself good at managing this kind of risk, and our S&C staff has shown itself to be adept at keeping players healthy and productive (sprinkle in some luck and knock wood). 

 

As for "opportunity  cost", we have to consider that there's been "opportunity cost" in many of the contracts the Bills have had over the last several years, including Hughes, Addison, and Lotulelei.

[BRH]

34 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

 

I mean the state just gave them a billion dollars so they can make more money off the team so this is the splash they wanted to distract us all from the new stadium. 

 

Yes, that's why they did this.  🙄

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

11 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

Some Bills fans will be pissed off about anything.  Beane sucks, he has no big signings.  Beane sucks he over paid.  Big signings are usually over paid.  Contracts are also not always contracts.  Von Miller won't see 6 years.  Just sit back and relax. This team could have won a super bowl last year and they just got better.

Agree Scott. Reminds some people I know where I live. Always blame others but never about the positive helping or solution. Totally agree with Bills off season. Glad beane and McDermott are here.

[Logic]

I loved this bit about Miller from Rams reporter Jordan Rodrigue in The Athletic today:

 

https://theathletic.com/3191131/2022/03/17/von-miller-joins-the-bills-what-will-he-bring-to-buffalo-and-what-do-the-rams-do-now/?source=twitterhq

 

It’s an interesting thing to compare the acquisition of Miller by either of these teams, at the time they did. When the Rams traded for Miller in November, they did so knowing they were contenders who needed to get a little extra “oomph” in their outside pass rush, especially with the way coaches were scheming double- and triple-teams against Aaron Donald and chipping against Leonard Floyd.

 

That worked out for the Rams, and then some. Miller’s presence allowed them to rush only four when needed. Their numbers in this regard increased through the second half of the season, which allowed them to get more creative with their coverage and rotations in the middle and defensive backfield. And then when the playoffs arrived, they were able to do a lot of creative things specifically up front with Donald and Miller working off each other and also opening blitz space.

 

What I think needs to be talked about as it pertains to the Bills, though, is what Miller lent to the locker room as a (then one-time) Super Bowl champion. He literally brought a replica Lombardi Trophy to the Rams facilities, set it on the training room table that everybody walked by each morning and wrote daily notes next to it about what it would take to hold the real thing. He reached Donald in a way not many people can and actually helped Donald find another gear to his game — which, let’s face it, we didn’t realize was even possible. There are only a few teams who truly contend each year, and the Rams are one of them. Now, the Bills certainly are as well. But the difference between constant playoff appearances and an actual championship comes down to the little details on the field, and off it.

[nbbillsfan]

45 minutes ago, Mikie's Bills said:

The trade-off is that Von's 1st year of the deal will be a low cap hit for us so we can fit it into our limited cap space (spreading the signing bonus over 6 years instead of 3). We will have dead cap on the books (how much remains to be seen) for the last 2-3 years of the deal when it's likely he'll be cut because he is no longer worth the money.

 

Chandler's deal is more friendly to a team that can afford his large cap number this year. And obviously the Raiders don't have to worry about any dead money if he remains productive and healthy for the next 3 years.

 

Assuming we get 3 years out of Von we could be looking at dead cap hits of $15M in year 4, $10M in year 5, $5M in year 6 (pure guesses). Obviously not ideal but Beane is banking on the cap going up dramatically over the next few years so those numbers will hurt less than they do now. Still, opportunity cost is that we will most likely miss out on signing some of our own and other FAs as dead money starts to pile up in future years.

Thank you! I guess it is fair to assume he will play the 4th year as the dead cap hit could be close to his salary cap hit?
 

What if he retires? 

[Mark Vader]

15 hours ago, patzen said:

Hmmm...LA hosting Buffalo to start the season just got a little more interesting. I wasn't expecting that to be the matchup but this signing makes it pretty intriguing.

That is a possibility.

 

Although I think they will go with Denver. They'll want to highlight Russell Wilson's debut with the Broncos.

[The Wiz]

42 minutes ago, Tenhigh said:

Reminds me of the video of the guy skateboarding to work drinking cranberry juice.  

This one?

 

 

[stosh64]

Not sure if this was posted but it a MUST watch for Bills fans.

Let's GO!!!  It's GMFB btw...CLICK IT!

 

[Rico]

1 hour ago, hondo in seattle said:

I hate to be Eeyore - that's not usually the role I play - but I don't like this signing.   

 

Look at the production of pass rushers post 33yo.  Von Miller is still a great player but the decline is inevitable.  

 

And then there's the opportunity cost.  What players will we pass up because  so much money is tied up in Von?   That's my worry.

 

But, as others have pointed out, the devil is in the (contract) details.  If VM averages 10 sacks for the next few years and the real deal is 4 years at 17mill/year....  maybe Von is almost worth his price.

 

 

 

 

Sacks in the regular season is really irrelevant to me. If Miller shows up in the playoffs & SB, then he will be well worth it… and there’s no reason to believe he wouldn’t.

[BRH]

1 minute ago, Rico said:

Sacks in the regular season is really irrelevant to me. If Miller shows up in the playoffs & SB, then he will be well worth it… and there’s no reason to believe he wouldn’t.

 

You sign a guy like that for the one play in a game that you absolutely need him to make.  You'll know when it happens.  Bruce was like that.

[newcam2012]

42 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I dunno about fantastic, but the some of the points are germaine about the difference between how a cap-rich team will structure a contract to hit heavily in the first year and perhaps evenly over 3 years, but how a cap-tight team will "roll the can down the road" to trade a low initial cap hit for the risk of the cap/performance ratio going out of whack in later years. 

 

I think the germaine point is that if the contract contains $45M guaranteed at signing, $51.5M guaranteed overall, it's not unreasonable to look at it as a 3 year, $51.5M contract ($17M/yr) where some of the cost is "kicked down the road" into the final years. 

 

Beane has shown himself good at managing this kind of risk, and our S&C staff has shown itself to be adept at keeping players healthy and productive (sprinkle in some luck and knock wood). 

 

As for "opportunity  cost", we have to consider that there's been "opportunity cost" in many of the contracts the Bills have had over the last several years, including Hughes, Addison, and Lotulelei.

Another fantastic analysis. Why can't both post be fantastic? 

[boater]

23 minutes ago, stosh64 said:

Not sure if this was posted but it a MUST watch for Bills fans.

Let's GO!!!  It's GMFB btw...CLICK IT!

 

Nice video, watching unbiased journalists gush over the Bills.

[julian]

4 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

Some more Lockerroom Stuff with Miller

 

There is an entire story on Millers impact to that lockerroom trying to find the entire article

I think this is the Article on it.  But I dont subscribe to the athletic 

 

https://theathletic.com/3191131/2022/03/17/von-miller-joins-the-bills-what-will-he-bring-to-buffalo-and-what-do-the-rams-do-now/

https://www.yahoo.com/video/von-miller-takes-aim-super-123018851.html

Holy shat… his presence in that locker room has me more excited than his on field contributions 

[nucci]

10 minutes ago, julian said:

Holy shat… his presence in that locker room has me more excited than his on field contributions 

really?

[hondo in seattle]

1 hour ago, Scott7975 said:

Some Bills fans will be pissed off about anything.  Beane sucks, he has no big signings.  Beane sucks he over paid.  Big signings are usually over paid.  Contracts are also not always contracts.  Von Miller won't see 6 years.  Just sit back and relax. This team could have won a super bowl last year and they just got better.

 

I never say Beane sucks.  Just the opposite: I think he's a good GM.  I'm not worried about Beane's big signings: I'm just happy he's made the roster better.  And I know a six-year contract is not necessarily a six-year contract.  And I will absolutely love seeing Von Miller in a Bills uni later this year.

Despite all that, I still question this deal.  Bruce still produced at a good - not great - level in his mid 30s.  Maybe Von will too.  I hope so.   But I think we'll end up paying Von $1+ million per sack over the next 3-4 years.  And I wonder if that money would have been better spent elsewhere.  

 

 

Edited March 17, 2022 by hondo in seattle

[HereComesTheReignAgain]

1 minute ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

I never say Beane sucks.  Just the opposite: I think he's a good GM.  I'm not worried about Beane's big signings: I'm just happy he's made the roster better.  And I know a six-year contract is not necessarily a six-year contract.  And I will absolutely love seeing Von Miller in a Bills uni later this year.

Despite all that, I still question this deal.  Bruce still produced at a good - not great - level in his mid 30s.  Maybe Von will too.  I hope so.   But I think we'll end up paying Von $10++ million per sack over the next 3-4 years.  And I wonder if that money would have been better spent elsewhere.  

You think Miller will have less than 2 sacks per year over the next 3-4 years?!  Really?

[Logic]

I assume am Oliver/Miller tandem horse ride to training camp is upcoming?

 

 

 

[hondo in seattle]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

 

 

What I think needs to be talked about as it pertains to the Bills, though, is what Miller lent to the locker room as a (then one-time) Super Bowl champion. He literally brought a replica Lombardi Trophy to the Rams facilities, set it on the training room table that everybody walked by each morning and wrote daily notes next to it about what it would take to hold the real thing. He reached Donald in a way not many people can and actually helped Donald find another gear to his game — which, let’s face it, we didn’t realize was even possible. There are only a few teams who truly contend each year, and the Rams are one of them. Now, the Bills certainly are as well. But the difference between constant playoff appearances and an actual championship comes down to the little details on the field, and off it.

 

I gotta admit, the locker room leadership stuff does excite me.

 

Showing my age... I remember when we signed Phil Villipiano - when he was past his prime - to help build a winning culture.

 

 

[julian]

20 minutes ago, nucci said:

really?

No