Holy comp picks coming our way!

[nucci]

Bills won't have cap constraints. 

[ColoradoBills]

2 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

That cap number means nothing with restructures and cuts bills can resign anymore they want 

 

I'm willing to bet Beane is always concerned about his cap numbers.

[JohnNord]

1 hour ago, Pete said:

Hughes, Addison, Sanders, Trubisky, Butler, Boettger, Wallace, Jones, Obada, Breida, Phillips, Zimmer, McKenzie, Neil are all UFA.  With our cap constraints, I can't imagine us making any big signings.  IMO we must extend Harrison and Levi, and maybe Siran.  I know the NFL comp awards system always screws Bills, just like the refs.  But everyone of those players will sign somewhere IMO.  Put that in your pipe NFL comp man- we will be awarded several comp picks, it's inevitable

I’d like to see McKenzie Re-signed.  I think he has a lot of potential as an offensive weapon

[aristocrat]

9 minutes ago, Dr. Football said:

 

Now a 3rd round pick could be something worth getting excited about, good stuff is there in the 3rd round!! 

 

One more spencer brown on this o line would be fantastic. 

[Might Rather]

Not bad for a #2 CB playing the way he has... he's our #1 the rest of the way. His market could change depending on how he does in the playoffs and I hope it does.

9 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Spotrac has a market value on Levi of 3 years $17M.  It seems about right so it will come down to cap.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/levi-wallace-25587/market-value/

 

[Mango]

1 hour ago, John from Riverside said:

You really think we are gonna let Wallace go?

I think there’s a chance depending on the market. Wallace is a guy I’d always like to upgrade but never want to leave. In part time work Dane Jackson has played well enough, at least comparable to the production we’ve gotten from Wallace in seasons past. 
 

That’s sort of the reason I could see them being unwilling to pay. 

[FilthyBeast]

1 hour ago, Pete said:

Hughes, Addison, Sanders, Trubisky, Butler, Boettger, Wallace, Jones, Obada, Breida, Phillips, Zimmer, McKenzie, Neil are all UFA.  With our cap constraints, I can't imagine us making any big signings.  IMO we must extend Harrison and Levi, and maybe Siran.  I know the NFL comp awards system always screws Bills, just like the refs.  But everyone of those players will sign somewhere IMO.  Put that in your pipe NFL comp man- we will be awarded several comp picks, it's inevitable

 

I don't think Beane cares about comp pick as much as his own standard 7 round picks guaranteed each year.

 

Also we can get a 3rd rounder for Frazier if he gets hired somewhere because of the new minority rules/incentives.

 

Most of these guys though aren't going to be as attractive as some may think to other teams:

 

Hughes/Addison/Sanders - may have value to other contenders looking for pure veteran depth with no guarantees they make the final 53 man roster and none are going to get a bid contract elsewhere given their age and current production levels.

 

Trubisky - can fetch a better deal somewhere to compete to start.

 

Butler - would be surprised if he's even on an NFL roster next year.

 

Boettger - Bills would probably try to keep if cheap

 

Wallace - I think he may finally get decent money elsewhere that we won't want to match

 

Jones - ST only player and not worth more than minimum at this point

 

Obada - has shown flashes and may be able to resign cheap again for larger role in 2022

 

Breida - likely gone and 3rd string role on another team

 

Phillips - would resign but might all of a sudden becoming too expensive for Bills

 

Zimmer - probably can get him back cheap if we want

 

McKenzie - another cheap resigning unless other teams focus on the Pats game and offer a huge deal

 

Neil - probably won't command much on market either

[Mr. K]

Can't wait to see what gems Beane will find. More picks more potential.

[Matt_In_NH]

1 hour ago, Pete said:

Hughes, Addison, Sanders, Trubisky, Butler, Boettger, Wallace, Jones, Obada, Breida, Phillips, Zimmer, McKenzie, Neil are all UFA.  With our cap constraints, I can't imagine us making any big signings.  IMO we must extend Harrison and Levi, and maybe Siran.  I know the NFL comp awards system always screws Bills, just like the refs.  But everyone of those players will sign somewhere IMO.  Put that in your pipe NFL comp man- we will be awarded several comp picks, it's inevitable

 

Isn't it a predetermined formula that is applied equally to all teams?

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Beane screwed the Bills out of a 3rd round pick for Gilmore by keeping a terrible WR that could have been replaced with anyone and a FB.   

Assuming the bring back Wallace, I can't see any of those players getting big contracts.  If they let Wallace walk it could get interesting.  I'm not really sure what his market it.  How often does a young CB that has 2 years of starting come to market and not get a high salary? And as others have said, Trubisky could be a wild card as well.  

My guess is they bring back both Wallace and Trubisky and they maybe net a 7th comp pick.

[FilthyBeast]

Not to get off topic, but I'm still pretty surprised that Hughes is sitting at 1.5 sacks through 16 games (normal season).

 

I know some will tout 'pressure rate' and other things with him but this total is the 3rd worst of his career after his first two seasons in Indy when he had 0 and 1 sack respectively.

 

And outside of the two outlier years with Doug Marrone and Jim Schartz/Mike Pettine where he had double digit sacks, it's probably safe to say he's definitely washed and this very well may be his last year in the league period.

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, Pete said:

No way.  But if Levi wants to test market- he will get PAID

Two biggest questions this offseason regarding our FAs.

What kind of a salary will Levi command? 

How much will Harrison command?

 

Fill those positions (cb2 and 1T) + and work on the OL while adding a playmaker @ WR and a TE2.  I expect us to resign Hughes to a reduced contract. Rousseau, Basham, AJ and Jerry next year.  If they let Jerry walk, I could see us giving Obada another contract.  

Edited January 7, 2022 by NewEra

[Ya Digg?]

2 hours ago, Pete said:

Hughes, Addison, Sanders, Trubisky, Butler, Boettger, Wallace, Jones, Obada, Breida, Phillips, Zimmer, McKenzie, Neil are all UFA.  With our cap constraints, I can't imagine us making any big signings.  IMO we must extend Harrison and Levi, and maybe Siran.  I know the NFL comp awards system always screws Bills, just like the refs.  But everyone of those players will sign somewhere IMO.  Put that in your pipe NFL comp man- we will be awarded several comp picks, it's inevitable

You lost me right here-that’s too much whining/crying for me

[Beast]

2 hours ago, Irv said:

Who would have thought, at the start of the year, we'd be saying re-signing Levi Wallace is critical.   How times change!

 

Me.

[Governor]

2 hours ago, Logic said:

You left out the most important comp picks of all:

If Leslie Frazier gets hired away to be a head coach somewhere, the Bills will receive compensatory 3rd round draft picks in 2022 and 2023 drafts.

Not bad.

That would be fantastic.

[Utah John]

Hughes, Addison, Sanders, Trubisky, Butler, Boettger, Wallace, Jones, Obada, Breida, Phillips, Zimmer, McKenzie, Neil are all UFA. 

 

Hughes and Addison will be gone.  The reason Epenesa, Rousseau, and Basham were drafted was to replace those guys (and be better than them too).

 

Sanders will move on.  He's lost a couple of steps and Davis is ready to take his place.

 

Trubisky was always going to be gone.  He came in on a one-year deal to resurrect his career.  He hasn't had much of a chance to play this year, but so many teams are desperate for starting QBs that he'll get a chance to start somewhere else.  But if nothing else is available, I think he'd be happy to come back and the Bills would be delighted to keep him.  Probably won't happen though.

 

Butler and Star will both be gone.  Phillips has finally recovered from his knee injury and is showing the production we were expecting before he got hurt.  Phillips gets resigned and a new DT will be drafted even if Zimmer shows he's ready to go after his injury. Star and Beasley have covided themselves out of jobs. I think Obada will stick around, being cheaper than other players.  Butler might be back but he's been a huge disappointment and can easily be replaced at lower cost.

 

Beasley is still our best slot receiver but he's slowing down, and McKenzie is growing into that role.  Beasley is also far more expensive than McKenzie.  Plus, the covid stupidity.

 

Boettger will probably be back since he's a versatile and pretty good player.  A lot depends on injury recovery since he got hurt so late in this season.  

 

I actually think Jones sticks around since he's so valuable on STs.  Breida is the RB who will be somewhere else next year.  

 

For-sure re-signings are:  Wallace, Phillips, McKenzie, Neil

 

Likely re-signings depending on injury recovery are:  Boettger, Zimmer

 

Probable re-signings are:  Jones, Obada

 

Gone are: Star, Hughes, Addison, Butler, Sanders, Trubisky, Beasley, Breida, 

 

 

11 minutes ago, Governor said:

That would be fantastic.

Getting the draft picks would be fantastic.  Losing Frazier, not so much.

[LabattBlue]

Just a reminder to all…any F/A lost or signed this spring, count as possible comp picks for 2023 draft…not this spring!

[pennstate10]

13 minutes ago, Utah John said:

Hughes, Addison, Sanders, Trubisky, Butler, Boettger, Wallace, Jones, Obada, Breida, Phillips, Zimmer, McKenzie, Neil are all UFA. 

 

Hughes and Addison will be gone.  The reason Epenesa, Rousseau, and Basham were drafted was to replace those guys (and be better than them too).

 

Sanders will move on.  He's lost a couple of steps and Davis is ready to take his place.

 

Trubisky was always going to be gone.  He came in on a one-year deal to resurrect his career.  He hasn't had much of a chance to play this year, but so many teams are desperate for starting QBs that he'll get a chance to start somewhere else.  But if nothing else is available, I think he'd be happy to come back and the Bills would be delighted to keep him.  Probably won't happen though.

 

Butler and Star will both be gone.  Phillips has finally recovered from his knee injury and is showing the production we were expecting before he got hurt.  Phillips gets resigned and a new DT will be drafted even if Zimmer shows he's ready to go after his injury. Star and Beasley have covided themselves out of jobs. I think Obada will stick around, being cheaper than other players.  Butler might be back but he's been a huge disappointment and can easily be replaced at lower cost.

 

Beasley is still our best slot receiver but he's slowing down, and McKenzie is growing into that role.  Beasley is also far more expensive than McKenzie.  Plus, the covid stupidity.

 

Boettger will probably be back since he's a versatile and pretty good player.  A lot depends on injury recovery since he got hurt so late in this season.  

 

I actually think Jones sticks around since he's so valuable on STs.  Breida is the RB who will be somewhere else next year.  

 

For-sure re-signings are:  Wallace, Phillips, McKenzie, Neil

 

Likely re-signings depending on injury recovery are:  Boettger, Zimmer

 

Probable re-signings are:  Jones, Obada

 

Gone are: Star, Hughes, Addison, Butler, Sanders, Trubisky, Beasley, Breida, 

 

 

Getting the draft picks would be fantastic.  Losing Frazier, not so much.

I think this is almost completely correct.

Except for Jones.  He has so many years his vet minimum is going to be 1.5+ million.  Too expensive for an aging special teamer.  Mattakavich may also be gone.

[Utah John]

2 minutes ago, pennstate10 said:

I think this is almost completely correct.

Except for Jones.  He has so many years his vet minimum is going to be 1.5+ million.  Too expensive for an aging special teamer.  Mattakavich may also be gone.

I see your point about Jones.  You could be correct about him.  But Matakevich I think is back for sure.  

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

2 hours ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

There can’t be another fan base around that cares about these comp picks. Our roster is incredibly deep. Draft picks almost have no way on to the roster or field. Who cares? Load up these picks and use them for 1 or 2 excellent players. We don’t need more depth or volume.

Beane can always use more bullets for the gun.  If he really believes that many drafted players have no chance to make the team, he can work to move up in the draft and get fewer but higher quality players.  It's too early to tell where the roster openings will be and much too early for the fan base to worry about it.  I trust that Beane will orchestrate this to a good outcome.

[TBBills]

This must be what the Patriots feel like every year!

[TAinLack.]

3 hours ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Can’t wait for that extra 7th!!!

Trade bait to be used on another team!

[gonzo1105]

I think Siran Neal is one of those types of players that signs 2nd day of FA for bigger money than expected and everyone goes what the heck

[Irv]

1 hour ago, Beast said:

 

Me.

Prove it.

[cba fan]

3 hours ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

There can’t be another fan base around that cares about these comp picks. Our roster is incredibly deep. Draft picks almost have no way on to the roster or field. Who cares? Load up these picks and use them for 1 or 2 excellent players. We don’t need more depth or volume.

need the comps to trade up. This makes them valuable. Could also trade a 3rd for a next year 2nd if surplus is too big. 

 

Yes Bills later draft picks will have hard time making team. Too much talent on roster.

[klos63]

4 hours ago, Pete said:

Hughes, Addison, Sanders, Trubisky, Butler, Boettger, Wallace, Jones, Obada, Breida, Phillips, Zimmer, McKenzie, Neil are all UFA.  With our cap constraints, I can't imagine us making any big signings.  IMO we must extend Harrison and Levi, and maybe Siran.  I know the NFL comp awards system always screws Bills, just like the refs.  But everyone of those players will sign somewhere IMO.  Put that in your pipe NFL comp man- we will be awarded several comp picks, it's inevitable

How have the Bills been screwed by the comp pick system? 

[Beast]

14 minutes ago, Irv said:

Prove it.

 

2nd page.

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

35 minutes ago, cba fan said:

need the comps to trade up. This makes them valuable. Could also trade a 3rd for a next year 2nd if surplus is too big. 

 

Yes Bills later draft picks will have hard time making team. Too much talent on roster.

I thought you couldn’t trade comp picks?

[Augie]

5 hours ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

Omg two extra 7th round picks!  So exciting 

 

The Patriots get to keep one of those. 

 

 

Just because……….  🤷‍♂️

[Augie]

23 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

I thought you couldn’t trade comp picks?

 

But you could always trade your own pick in that round. It’s ammo to move around, for sure. 

[Sierra Foothills]

5 hours ago, Pete said:

Hughes, Addison, Sanders, Trubisky, Butler, Boettger, Wallace, Jones, Obada, Breida, Phillips, Zimmer, McKenzie, Neil are all UFA.  With our cap constraints, I can't imagine us making any big signings.  IMO we must extend Harrison and Levi, and maybe Siran.  I know the NFL comp awards system always screws Bills, just like the refs.  But everyone of those players will sign somewhere IMO.  Put that in your pipe NFL comp man- we will be awarded several comp picks, it's inevitable

Trubisky is a certain goner. I feel like both Hughes and Addison will also be gone next year. I have a hunch that Sanders, Beasley, and Star will also be gone. If it plays out that way I see Wallace returning as well as Harrison, Zimmer, McKenzie and Obada. Maybe it's wishful thinking because this is also what I'd like to see happen. As far as free agency and the draft, the Bills would need to get a new pass rusher with their other primary need at interior O-line. The team is deep enough elsewhere to pick best player available in most rounds. That said you can't give Josh too many weapons and you can never have enough cornerbacks.

[FarrellsFinest]

5 hours ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

There can’t be another fan base around that cares about these comp picks. Our roster is incredibly deep. Draft picks almost have no way on to the roster or field. Who cares? Load up these picks and use them for 1 or 2 excellent players. We don’t need more depth or volume.

Its important for us right now because of our cap.

[Max Fischer]

5 hours ago, Pete said:

No way.  But if Levi wants to test market- he will get PAID

I like Levi, but he’s an average DB who happens to fit well in the Bills’ system, which means he’s somewhat valuable to Buffalo but no team will offer him more. 

[BillsFanForever19]

Yeah, I definitely see us letting that many players walk and not replace them just so we can get mid round picks we won't be able to use until after the following season 🙄

[cle23]

1 hour ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

I thought you couldn’t trade comp picks?

 

They changed that a couple years ago. 

4 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:

Don’t laugh at the guy but with Covid, the draft last year was really week after round 4. With the extra year this draft will be deeper than typical ones.

 

The Bills have 9 picks. If Frazier gets a HC job that’s an extra 3rd. Usually you have to get about 3.5 million now to even qualify in the top 32 lost Free Agents.
 

Out of those guys that are Free Agents, I suspect if we don’t re sign them that Trubisky, Wallace, Phillips, maybe Hughes on a 1 year, and Neal because of his STs prowess plus position flexibility being the likely guys. I would suspect we end up with 2 comp picks in the later rounds. 
 

It could end up being 

1st

2nd

3rd

3rd(Frazier)

4th

5th

5th(Comp)

6th

6th(Johnson)

6th(Comp)

7th

7th(Smith) 

 

Limit of 4 comp picks per team, and also a limit on the total number, so it can vary quite a bit.

[Chaos]

5 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Yes, if you lose a coach who moves up a level in rank, you get comp picks. 

Not any coach.

[Thurman#1]

8 hours ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

There can’t be another fan base around that cares about these comp picks. Our roster is incredibly deep. Draft picks almost have no way on to the roster or field. Who cares? Load up these picks and use them for 1 or 2 excellent players. We don’t need more depth or volume.

 

 

Every fan base cares about them, as they should.

 

And while we're deep this year, that's no guarantee for next year. There will be cuts, for money savings and for performance. There will be injuries. And we don't have a lot of money to bring in FAs, though we'll certainly manage a few.

 

And Bates and Dodson are also free agents, though not UFAs.

 

Comp picks can also be traded as you note. They're valuable. Obviously not as valuable as higher picks, but more valuable than lower ones, but definitely valuable. And they bring in cheap labor and sometimes surprises and high performers.

 

 

 

Edited January 8, 2022 by Thurman#1

[GunnerBill]

11 hours ago, Pete said:

 just by volume, we should get more than a 7th IMO.  And some team might way overpay for Levi, Harrison, Mitch

 

Just volume doesn't get you up the comp pick formula. You need the people you let go to get signed to big deals. 

 

The one who might is Trubisky. 

[GunnerBill]

10 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:

Don’t laugh at the guy but with Covid, the draft last year was really week after round 4. With the extra year this draft will be deeper than typical ones.

 

The Bills have 9 picks. If Frazier gets a HC job that’s an extra 3rd. Usually you have to get about 3.5 million now to even qualify in the top 32 lost Free Agents.
 

Out of those guys that are Free Agents, I suspect if we don’t re sign them that Trubisky, Wallace, Phillips, maybe Hughes on a 1 year, and Neal because of his STs prowess plus position flexibility being the likely guys. I would suspect we end up with 2 comp picks in the later rounds. 
 

It could end up being 

1st

2nd

3rd

3rd(Frazier)

4th

5th

5th(Comp)

6th

6th(Johnson)

6th(Comp)

7th

7th(Smith) 

 

Except comp picks are for the following year. Comp picks for this year's free agency are issued NEXT year not this one. 

 

We are not in line for any comp picks in 2022 based on last year when we only lost one Qualifying Free Agent - Andre Roberts and signed two - Mitch Trubisky and Matt Haack.

[GunnerBill]

As for the formula itself.... it is really pretty simple. The NFL awards a maximum of 32 comp picks. 

 

They start now by awarding any comp picks to teams losing minority coaches or executives to GM or HC jobs. 

 

For the 2022 draft that looks like being one. So then the remaining 31 comp picks are awarded and the basics of the formula are this. 

 

1. The NFL ranks every FA contract handed out by Average Annual Value (AAV);

 

2. It then brigades them by round. And on past experience it looks like roughly the top 5% of free agent deals by AAV in any year are brigaded as third round value. The next 5% after that as 4th round value, the next 5% as 5th round value and then roughly tje next 10% as 6th round and the next 10% as 7th round. 

 

3. So, if a player is not in the top 35% of free agent contracts that year by AAV they are essentially not counted for comp pick cancellation formula (save that they are still counted in your total number and you still need to lose more than you gain to be eligible). 

 

4. You then start the cancellation process. And the cancellation works by matching rounds. So, for example, the highest value free agent the Titans lost was Johnu Smith and the highest value they gained was Bud Dupree. Both had 4th round value so they cancel each other out. 

 

5. When you have cancelled all the ones where rounds match, like the Titans example you start cancelling any remaining free agents lost with free agents gained.

 

6. If you gained more than you lost then you all of your losses are cancelled out. But if you didn't then you get a pick commensurate to the highest unmatched (by equivalent round value) free agent lost. If you have multiple unmatched free agents lost then you can end up with multiple picks up to a maximum of 4 per team. 

 

7. There are some other factors that can come to play that make it more complicated - playing time and all pro votes can make a difference to where someone is valued as opposed to pure AAV but for the most part the above seems to stand and be consistent year on year. 

 

So in simple terms if you want to know whether the Bills get comp picks the questions to ask are:

 

A. Did we lose more FAs than we signed?

 

Then if yes:

 

B. Who of the ones we lost has the highest value contract in a range where we didn't sign an equivalent value FA?

 

Because they are the guys you will get comp picks for. 

 

Edited January 8, 2022 by GunnerBill