Holy comp picks coming our way!

[BobbyC81]

12 hours ago, Irv said:

Who would have thought, at the start of the year, we'd be saying re-signing Levi Wallace is critical.   How times change!

It is when Tre White will miss a chunk of next season.

[chongli]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

As for the formula itself.... it is really pretty simple. The NFL awards a maximum of 32 comp picks. 

 

They start now by awarding any comp picks to teams losing minority coaches or executives to GM or HC jobs. 

 

For the 2022 draft that looks like being one. So then the remaining 31 comp picks are awarded and the basics of the formula are this. 

 

1. The NFL ranks every FA contract handed out by Average Annual Value (AAV);

 

2. It then brigades them by round. And on past experience it looks like roughly the top 5% of free agent deals by AAV in any year are brigaded as third round value. The next 5% after that as 4th round value, the next 5% as 5th round value and then roughly tje next 10% as 6th round and the next 10% as 7th round. 

 

3. So, if a player is not in the top 35% of free agent contracts that year by AAV they are essentially not counted for comp pick cancellation formula (save that they are still counted in your total number and you still need to lose more than you gain to be eligible). 

 

4. You then start the cancellation process. And the cancellation works by matching rounds. So, for example, the highest value free agent the Titans lost was Johnu Smith and the highest value they gained was Bud Dupree. Both had 4th round value so they cancel each other out. 

 

5. When you have cancelled all the ones where rounds match, like the Titans example you start cancelling any remaining free agents lost with free agents gained.

 

6. If you gained more than you lost then you all of your losses are cancelled out. But if you didn't then you get a pick commensurate to the highest unmatched (by equivalent round value) free agent lost. If you have multiple unmatched free agents lost then you can end up with multiple picks up to a maximum of 4 per team. 

 

7. There are some other factors that can come to play that make it more complicated - playing time and all pro votes can make a difference to where someone is valued as opposed to pure AAV but for the most part the above seems to stand and be consistent year on year. 

 

So in simple terms if you want to know whether the Bills get comp picks the questions to ask are:

 

A. Did we lose more FAs than we signed?

 

Then if yes:

 

B. Who of the ones we lost has the highest value contract in a range where we didn't sign an equivalent value FA?

 

Because they are the guys you will get comp picks for. 

 

 

Damn...this is a hell of an explanation! You really know your stuff. Thank you.

[gonzo1105]

7 hours ago, cle23 said:

 

They changed that a couple years ago. 

 

Limit of 4 comp picks per team, and also a limit on the total number, so it can vary quite a bit.

yup in my scenario that’s 3 comp picks total number is 32 

[Matt_In_NH]

13 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

You really think we are gonna let Wallace go?

He is an FA.   So it comes down to money.  Will another team value him to the level he has played this year?   It’s possible the Bills just choose to spend money elsewhere.  

[GunnerBill]

16 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

yup in my scenario that’s 3 comp picks total number is 32 

 

But they wouldn't be until next year (except the Leslie Frazier one if he becomes a HC I think you get two 3rd rounders in consecutive years for that and they become payable immediately). 

[Sierra Foothills]

13 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:

I think Siran Neal is one of those types of players that signs 2nd day of FA for bigger money than expected and everyone goes what the heck

 

I could definitely see him getting paid. Siran is an excellent special teams player who has improved every year as a DB. After playing LB and safety in college his coverage skills as a pro CB continue to improve and he's valuable as a big nickel. He's still relatively young and plays a premium position.

 

11 hours ago, Max Fischer said:

I like Levi, but he’s an average DB who happens to fit well in the Bills’ system, which means he’s somewhat valuable to Buffalo but no team will offer him more. 

 

On the other hand, Levi has been a starter for 4 years on a playoff team. He's improved every year and has held up as teams generally avoid Tre White. He's a relatively young guy at a premium position. People were saying Taron Johnson was average but now look at him differently after he signed his new contract. The Bills will add a few CBs this offseason but Levi's next contract will be pretty nice.

[Manther]

17 hours ago, Warcodered said:

Wouldn't be surprised if Sanders retires either way this season ends.

Agreed

17 hours ago, aristocrat said:

The one that has the chance to give us a third would be trubisky. He took a nagy team to the playoffs.  Dalton got 10 mil so maybe he does which i believe is the third round number. 

Good point

16 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

Maybe but his value is somewhat scheme-dependent

Very good point.  I think $5 M/year tops.  I'd like him for 2 years at $10 M

[Manther]

16 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:

Don’t laugh at the guy but with Covid, the draft last year was really week after round 4. With the extra year this draft will be deeper than typical ones.

 

The Bills have 9 picks. If Frazier gets a HC job that’s an extra 3rd. Usually you have to get about 3.5 million now to even qualify in the top 32 lost Free Agents.
 

Out of those guys that are Free Agents, I suspect if we don’t re sign them that Trubisky, Wallace, Phillips, maybe Hughes on a 1 year, and Neal because of his STs prowess plus position flexibility being the likely guys. I would suspect we end up with 2 comp picks in the later rounds. 
 

It could end up being 

1st

2nd

3rd

3rd(Frazier)

4th

5th

5th(Comp)

6th

6th(Johnson)

6th(Comp)

7th

7th(Smith) 

I like your thought process.  That is 12 picks.  If Frazier stays it is still 11 picks.  Beane can make a lot happen with 11 or 12 picks.

[Hebert19]

17 hours ago, Pete said:

Hughes, Addison, Sanders, Trubisky, Butler, Boettger, Wallace, Jones, Obada, Breida, Phillips, Zimmer, McKenzie, Neil are all UFA.  With our cap constraints, I can't imagine us making any big signings.  IMO we must extend Harrison and Levi, and maybe Siran.  I know the NFL comp awards system always screws Bills, just like the refs.  But everyone of those players will sign somewhere IMO.  Put that in your pipe NFL comp man- we will be awarded several comp picks, it's inevitable

Trubiski and Frazier could net 3rd or 4th rounders depending how our FA spree goes.  

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Agree on Harrison, Neil, and Wallace being resigned. 

 

But I do also think there's a good chance some of these will be resigned such as Boettger, Obada, Zimmer, and McKenzie.  Plus if Trubisky signs elsewhere, they may still try to bring in someone of equal ability and contract.  Also think there's a good chance Hughes comes back for one more year at a much reduced contract.  In addition can see them signing one top level interior lineman and maybe also a lower level backup lineman, plus some LB depth.

 

Bottom line doubt the haul of comp picks will be as anywhere near as big as you'd imagine.

[billsfan89]

19 hours ago, Pete said:

 just by volume, we should get more than a 7th IMO.  And some team might way overpay for Levi, Harrison, Mitch

I hope the Bills can retain Levi and Harrison. Both are solid to good starters on good defense. They will command some money but I think this team can work around the cap constraints to find money to give them a fair offer. If they can retain those two along with maybe a handful of other players  (some combo of Zimmer, Mac, Addison, Obada and Neil) I think the team will be in a good position for 2022.

[letsgoteam]

19 hours ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

There can’t be another fan base around that cares about these comp picks. Our roster is incredibly deep. Draft picks almost have no way on to the roster or field. Who cares? Load up these picks and use them for 1 or 2 excellent players. We don’t need more depth or volume.

Patriots envy from the drought

[JerseyBills]

19 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Of course.  Bills keep guys like Wallace if they're willing to take less.  He's not a core player, so the Bills will be disciplined about what they pay him.  

After this season he feels like a core player

[HomeTeam]

I would like to think bringing back Justin Zimmer would be beneficial

[Madbillsfan]

The cap will shoot up this year so expect a few of these guys to be attempted to be re-signed. 

[Blank Stare]

19 hours ago, Irv said:

Who would have thought, at the start of the year, we'd be saying re-signing Levi Wallace is critical.   How times change!

People have always inexplicably complained about Levi. Maybe it’s because he’s not Tre White? Few are. It’s bonkers. We could do worse. He’s a fine #2 corner. 

[Turbo44]

7 hours ago, BobbyC81 said:

It is when Tre White will miss a chunk of next season.

He is missing a chunk of time?? My understanding is he’s back by training camp or at worst the regular season. Hope I’m correct 

[ColoradoBills]

1 minute ago, Madbillsfan said:

The cap will shoot up this year so expect a few of these guys to be attempted to be re-signed. 

 

The cap for next year is already assigned at $208.2M which leaves the Bills at $9.4M in cap with 39 players under contract.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/2022/

 

[Blank Stare]

14 minutes ago, HomeTeam said:

I would like to think bringing back Justin Zimmer would be beneficial

Love Zimmer. I think the team misses him greatly this year. Can you do better? Of course. But Zim is the epitome of a “hard hat and lunchbox carrying player”. Except he’s not just a “try hard” guy. He’s an incredible athlete based on his RAS score. He’s the exact type of glue guy depth piece that McD loves. Max effort, all the time. I’d love to have him back on a reworked dline next year. 

[Blank Stare]

Probably already been posted, but Spotrac has Levi’s market value at 3 years, $17.1MM (AAV of $5.7M). Seems more than fair to me. I’d take that all day for a solid #2 corner. Could save an early draft pick that you could use to support the offense instead. 
 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/levi-wallace-25587/market-value/

 

Also, didn’t realize he and Tre are the same age. Be nice to have our corners and safeties locked up for the next few years for what is the strength of the defense. Only way I’d be in favor of not resigning Levi would be if the plan is to take the money to use toward getting a legit pass rusher in a trade. Obviously, not getting one of those at $5.7MM, but you could use that money toward one. 

[Nextmanup]

2 minutes ago, TheProcess said:

Probably already been posted, but Spotrac has Levi’s market value at 3 years, $17.1MM (AAV of $5.7M). Seems more than fair to me. I’d take that all day for a solid #2 corner. Could save an early draft pick that you could use to support the offense instead. 
 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/levi-wallace-25587/market-value/

 

Also, didn’t realize he and Tre are the same age. Be nice to have our corners and safeties locked up for the next few years for what is the strength of the defense. Only way I’d be in favor of not resigning Levi would be if the plan is to take the money to use toward getting a legit pass rusher in a trade. Obviously, not getting one of those at $5.7MM, but you could use that money toward one. 

Solid DB cover guys are the second most important thing on the team, IMO, after the QB and WRs for the QB to throw the ball to.

 

Be able to throw, and stop the other teams ability to throw on you....2 most important needs of the entire team.

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

21 hours ago, Pete said:

Hughes, Addison, Sanders, Trubisky, Butler, Boettger, Wallace, Jones, Obada, Breida, Phillips, Zimmer, McKenzie, Neil are all UFA.  With our cap constraints, I can't imagine us making any big signings.  IMO we must extend Harrison and Levi, and maybe Siran.  I know the NFL comp awards system always screws Bills, just like the refs.  But everyone of those players will sign somewhere IMO.  Put that in your pipe NFL comp man- we will be awarded several comp picks, it's inevitable

You said we need to extend 2 maybe 3 of them (Levi, Phillips, and maybe Taron) and then say every single player you listed will sign elsewhere?  
 

I also think there is a couple more in there that are not locks to be elsewhere next year who have a chance to be back, like Hughes, Zimmer, McKenzie, and maybe even Obada for depth.  

[Blank Stare]

26 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

Solid DB cover guys are the second most important thing on the team, IMO, after the QB and WRs for the QB to throw the ball to.

 

Be able to throw, and stop the other teams ability to throw on you....2 most important needs of the entire team.

 

 

I completely agree on throw and stop the throw. It’s a passing league. People, including myself sometimes, get all hung up about the defense giving up rushing yards. Of course you’d love to be able to do everything well on defense, but unless the opponent is keeping your higher octane offense off the field because they are constantly running it down your throat (e.g., colts game), I don’t see much of the problem. As long as they aren’t scoring at will with it, I’d rather give up rushing yards to passing yards. 
 

Only place I might disagree with you on is that I think pass rusher is a bit more important than corner. I’m not really basing that on anything scientific. Just my opinion. Corner is still up there in importance, but if your pass rush is constantly getting home, it can cover for some issues in the secondary. While the Bills current secondary is the strength of the team and has been awesome this year, even they can’t cover forever. It can be downright painful to watch if we aren’t getting any pressure on a legit QB. They’ll pick apart even the best secondary. 

Edited January 8, 2022 by TheProcess

[Buffalo Junction]

23 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

Solid DB cover guys are the second most important thing on the team, IMO, after the QB and WRs for the QB to throw the ball to.

 

Be able to throw, and stop the other teams ability to throw on you....2 most important needs of the entire team.

 

 

I think a fair amount of folks devalue Wallace due to his physical limitations. While he’s not the biggest or fastest CB, his on field intelligence and experience make him an additive piece in our secondary where all the starters end up being greater than the sum of parts….. A long winded way of saying Wallace has more value to the Bills than other teams, and what might look like an overpay may be legitimate retention value. 

[Alphadawg7]

Levi Wallace is a practically a lock to be here next year.  He’s had an excellent season, Beane and McD have been very glowing in their remarks about him, and we already have question marks on how Tre will look coming off a major injury.
 

I have no doubt Beane sees Levi as a major priority resigning this off season after the very good season he just put up opposite Tre and in Tre’s place.  
 

Levi proved to be a good starter in this league and valuable member of this defense despite what the haters try and say around here.  If anyone still thinks he  isn’t a good starter and needs to go, then they either don’t pay attention to his play enough or they have no idea what good CB play looks like.  

[AuntieEm]

16 hours ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

I thought you couldn’t trade comp picks?

  Think they changed that one or 2 years ago so comp picks can be traded. Since 2017 they can be traded I just googled it.

 

 

Edited January 8, 2022 by AuntieEm
Added content

[BarleyNY]

A bit off-topic for this thread, but I looked up OTC’s 2022 Comp Pick projection and not a single AFCE team is getting a pick.  Link

[BarleyNY]

10 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Levi Wallace is a practically a lock to be here next year.  He’s had an excellent season, Beane and McD have been very glowing in their remarks about him, and we already have question marks on how Tre will look coming off a major injury.
 

I have no doubt Beane sees Levi as a major priority resigning this off season after the very good season he just put up opposite Tre and in Tre’s place.  
 

Levi proved to be a good starter in this league and valuable member of this defense despite what the haters try and say around here.  If anyone still thinks he  isn’t a good starter and needs to go, then they either don’t pay attention to his play enough or they have no idea what good CB play looks like.  

I think Wallace is a solid #2 CB in the league.  That certainly has value.  But it really might all come down to a) how much he wants to be in Buffalo and b) the contract offers he gets come March (should he decide to test free agency).  I absolutely think the Bills would like to retain him and I think the odds favor them doing so, but the Bills cap situation and possibly of overpayment by another team means that it is not a slam dunk. 

[Alphadawg7]

6 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

I think Wallace is a solid #2 CB in the league.  That certainly has value.  But it really might all come down to a) how much he wants to be in Buffalo and b) the contract offers he gets come March (should he decide to test free agency).  I absolutely think the Bills would like to retain him and I think the odds favor them doing so, but the Bills cap situation and possibly of overpayment by another team means that it is not a slam dunk. 

I agree the cap situation is definitely a factor, but I also know for sure that Levi loves playing in Buffalo.  I became friends with his good friends from College when I met them at the home opener.  They kept talking about how passionate he was playing in Buffalo and wants to stay and we still keep in touch and they still say the same thing.  
 

Of course money changes things for a lot of people, but I also don’t think we will have to over pay to keep him.  I think he would even sign for a little less here over someone else’s offer because this is where he wants to be.  
 

So unless he gets another team throwing a big over pay contract at him, I think his return is close to a lock.  And I don’t think he’s going to get an egregious contract offer we can’t compete with personally that still makes sense for the team and cap.  

Edited January 8, 2022 by Alphadawg7

[Mr. WEO]

how is the comp pick rule written to specifically screw the Bills?

[BarleyNY]

4 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I agree the cap situation is definitely a factor, but I also know for sure that Levi loves playing in Buffalo.  I became friends with his good friends from College when I met them at the home opener.  They kept talking about how passionate he was playing in Buffalo and wants to stay and we still keep in touch and they still say the same thing.  
 

Of course money changes things for a lot of people, but I also don’t think we will have to over pay to keep him.  I think he would even sign for a little less here over someone else’s offer because this is where he wants to be.  
 

So unless he gets another team throwing a big over pay contract at him, I think his return is close to a lock.  And I don’t think he’s going to get an egregious contract offer we can’t compete with personally that still makes sense for the team and cap.  

Thanks.  I’m glad to hear that.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

You said we need to extend 2 maybe 3 of them (Levi, Phillips, and maybe Taron) and then say every single player you listed will sign elsewhere?  
 

I also think there is a couple more in there that are not locks to be elsewhere next year who have a chance to be back, like Hughes, Zimmer, McKenzie, and maybe even Obada for depth.  

Levi should be the priority. Taron already signed an extension.

Zimmer tore his ACL in November.  He was a marginal player before that. No one will sign him until training camp at the earliest. 

I thought Phillips was done as a Bill but wow has he taken advantage of Zimmer's injury and really shined. Hope they mutually agree this is a good spot for him. Hes an ideal backup NT. Hope they find a big body in the draft to play the 1 tech next to Oliver for several years.

I would take Hughes on one more 1 yr deal and let Addison, Star, and Butler all go. 

 

Edited January 8, 2022 by Ethan in Portland

[716er]

The formula will change after Beane brings in Godwin

 

imo

[NastyNateSoldiers]

22 hours ago, Pete said:

Hughes, Addison, Sanders, Trubisky, Butler, Boettger, Wallace, Jones, Obada, Breida, Phillips, Zimmer, McKenzie, Neil are all UFA.  With our cap constraints, I can't imagine us making any big signings.  IMO we must extend Harrison and Levi, and maybe Siran.  I know the NFL comp awards system always screws Bills, just like the refs.  But everyone of those players will sign somewhere IMO.  Put that in your pipe NFL comp man- we will be awarded several comp picks, it's inevitable

Maybe we’ll get one for Wallace but for the rest I don’t see it.

[Dablitzkrieg]

22 hours ago, Pete said:

 just by volume, we should get more than a 7th IMO.  And some team might way overpay for Levi, Harrison, Mitch

Levi, Zimmer, and Harrison aren't going anywhere.  7th round picks are hardly anything  to be as excited as you are about.

[T master]

22 hours ago, Pete said:

Hughes, Addison, Sanders, Trubisky, Butler, Boettger, Wallace, Jones, Obada, Breida, Phillips, Zimmer, McKenzie, Neil are all UFA.  With our cap constraints, I can't imagine us making any big signings.  IMO we must extend Harrison and Levi, and maybe Siran.  I know the NFL comp awards system always screws Bills, just like the refs.  But everyone of those players will sign somewhere IMO.  Put that in your pipe NFL comp man- we will be awarded several comp picks, it's inevitable

 

Of the players you listed i believe that there is a good chance that Hughes, Harrison, Obada, Zimmer, McKenzie, Neil, Wallace, Boettger could come back for a reasonable contract not to mention the Bills like to keep their own & Phillips is playing like he did before he got hurt & i don't see him want ing to leave given his uptick in playing time & the availability problem with Star .

 

Hughes probably wants to finish out his career as a Bill, Obada has done pretty good here lately Zimmer was another that was doing really well for the team before he got hurt & i'm sure that Beane will make a offer and seeing as close nit as this team is i could see some of them wanting to come back especially if they don't win the big game this year .

 

Tribisky, Butler, Sanders, Breida, Jones, Addison yah i can see a good possibility of them being gone so maybe we will get a couple of comps for once .

Edited January 8, 2022 by T master

[Shaw66]

4 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

After this season he feels like a core player

He's been excellent, I admit.   But the realities of the salary cap are that you can pay only six to ten players.    I heard someone, maybe Doug Whaley, say you can afford six big contracts.   It's pretty clear that the six are probably a QB, an offensive lineman, a skill player on offense, a corner, a defensive lineman and maybe one other defender.   There isn't enough money to pay a really good #2 corner.   

 

Bills gave Milano a nice deal and will give Edmunds or a free agent a nice deal.  Plus White.  If Wallace is in Buffalo next season, I think it will be because he took less than he could have gotten elsewhere.   In my opinion, Wallace should take less and stay.  He's a classic over-achiever in a system like this, just like lots of free agents in New England over the years.  He's a good dedicated athlete, and the system allows him to play better than his natural abilities would suggest.   

[PromoTheRobot]

On 1/7/2022 at 4:41 PM, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

There can’t be another fan base around that cares about these comp picks. Our roster is incredibly deep. Draft picks almost have no way on to the roster or field. Who cares? Load up these picks and use them for 1 or 2 excellent players. We don’t need more depth or volume.

 

You're crazy not to care about picks. No team can afford to stand still. Always be reloading.

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

Just now, PromoTheRobot said:

 

You're crazy not to care about picks. No team can afford to stand still. Always be reloading.

I’m not saying I don’t care about picks but there are times that people are banking on these things like they are more important then good players that are walking. This team lost 2 of their draft picks THIS year for nothing. This roster does not have room for 8-10 rookies. It’s not time for quantity. It’s time for quality 

[MAJBobby]

On 1/7/2022 at 4:20 PM, Pete said:

Hughes, Addison, Sanders, Trubisky, Butler, Boettger, Wallace, Jones, Obada, Breida, Phillips, Zimmer, McKenzie, Neil are all UFA.  With our cap constraints, I can't imagine us making any big signings.  IMO we must extend Harrison and Levi, and maybe Siran.  I know the NFL comp awards system always screws Bills, just like the refs.  But everyone of those players will sign somewhere IMO.  Put that in your pipe NFL comp man- we will be awarded several comp picks, it's inevitable

Add any to the 2nd and 3rd we will also get once Frazier is Hired.