Ethan in Cleveland Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 It's a business. It is wonderful that he has embraced the city. But he and his agent will and should fight for a fair contract. And a fair contract based on precedent is being paid at least top 3 money. There are a couple of issues that make it more challenging to take less money. First his take home pay with the state taxes is going to be less than similar deals in some other states. Second, at least so far he has not gotten the national recognition and marketing dollars that other QBs have. Rodger, Manning, and Mahommes seems like naturals in front of the camera. Brady not so much but he married a woman that has more wealth than he does. Agents have agendas too. They have more than just one client and they may not want to risk being seen as settling for a bad deal. In the end, Beane will need to find a way to build a team around a star QB that is paid top 2 or 3 money. Any home town discount won't really be that much in cap savings. Beane will need to start trading down to acquire more picks, play the comp pick game, sign some aging vets for the league minimum and draft well. All much easier said than done. Many have tried few if any have succeeded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sirebors Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 minute ago, DJB said: We've saved money by not really paying QB's the past 25 years. Just pay the man. I'm not talking about the Bills trying to short change him... I'm asking if Josh would voluntarily take a team friendly deal to improve his teams chance for success? Say they don't have the money to sign a Daryl Williams and Josh is injured and his career is cut short. How is that better for him or the team? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 minute ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said: For the record, as someone who would love him to take a team-friendly deal, I would be ECSTATIC if it's the same as the Mahomes deal. That is what I mean by a team-friendly deal. What would be a disaster for us is if he signs as #1 QB contract and it doesn't have the flexibility that Mahomes' does. Trying to trust Beane to execute something similar or better than Mahomes'. Yea. If people mean maximum long term flex when they say team friendly then it is possible I'd even say likely. If they mean leaving money on the table then that ain't happening. Allen is going to be getting paid over $40m per year average value. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LABILLBACKER Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 hour ago, wppete said: $40 million a year 5 years that’s my guess. They will lock him up for alot longer than 5 years. I still think 10/ 400 is reasonable. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sirebors Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 minute ago, LABILLBACKER said: They will lock him up for alot longer than 5 years. I still think 10/ 400 is reasonable. That's exactly what I'm thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJB Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 8 minutes ago, sirebors said: I'm not talking about the Bills trying to short change him... I'm asking if Josh would voluntarily take a team friendly deal to improve his teams chance for success? Say they don't have the money to sign a Daryl Williams and Josh is injured and his career is cut short. How is that better for him or the team? I mean maybe...but when was the last time an ascending superstar QB took a discount? I don't think its happened before and it's because of player agents. I'm with you though man. If it were me I'd sign a team friendly 300 million deal instead of 500 million and use that extra $$$ to spend on the team to win. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dablitzkrieg Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 He will be close to the highest paid player in the NFL when he signs. He's not taking a cheaper deal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearNorth Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 25 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said: They will lock him up for alot longer than 5 years. I still think 10/ 400 is reasonable. And the Pegula's will pay for an insurance policy in case anything bad happens. As they said in the Godfather "Just business". 2 hours ago, Ya Digg? said: Ahhhhhh yes, the ONE outlier ever. He also could because he wasn’t the bread winner in his own family! If you ever listen to the players, they NEVER want their teammates taking less money than what they can get. They want their teammates to get paid. Pay Josh what he is worth, don’t think that he’s going to take some sort of hometown discount because he seems like that kind of guy. I’m telling you if you short change your quarterback, guys know and guys don’t want to play for teams that are cheap Gisele is apparently worth 400 Million, Tom "only" 180, so yes Tom could take a "team friendly" deal for the past 12 years when they got together. 2 hours ago, Ya Digg? said: Ahhhhhh yes, the ONE outlier ever. He also could because he wasn’t the bread winner in his own family! If you ever listen to the players, they NEVER want their teammates taking less money than what they can get. They want their teammates to get paid. Pay Josh what he is worth, don’t think that he’s going to take some sort of hometown discount because he seems like that kind of guy. I’m telling you if you short change your quarterback, guys know and guys don’t want to play for teams that are cheap Gisele is apparently worth 400 Million, Tom "only" 180, so yes Tom could take a "team friendly" deal for the past 12 years when they got together. 2 hours ago, Ya Digg? said: Ahhhhhh yes, the ONE outlier ever. He also could because he wasn’t the bread winner in his own family! If you ever listen to the players, they NEVER want their teammates taking less money than what they can get. They want their teammates to get paid. Pay Josh what he is worth, don’t think that he’s going to take some sort of hometown discount because he seems like that kind of guy. I’m telling you if you short change your quarterback, guys know and guys don’t want to play for teams that are cheap Gisele is apparently worth 400 Million, Tom "only" 180, so yes Tom could take a "team friendly" deal for the past 12 years when they got together. 2 hours ago, Ya Digg? said: Ahhhhhh yes, the ONE outlier ever. He also could because he wasn’t the bread winner in his own family! If you ever listen to the players, they NEVER want their teammates taking less money than what they can get. They want their teammates to get paid. Pay Josh what he is worth, don’t think that he’s going to take some sort of hometown discount because he seems like that kind of guy. I’m telling you if you short change your quarterback, guys know and guys don’t want to play for teams that are cheap Gisele is apparently worth 400 Million, Tom "only" 180, so yes Tom could take a "team friendly" deal for the past 12 years when they got together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djp14150 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 2 hours ago, sirebors said: Is this possible? Could or would Josh Allen take a below market value contract like Tom Brady did for the benefit of his team? I know it seems silly at face value but Josh is cut from a different cloth. He is a consumate team player and genuinely a good person and cares about his team and teammates. To build a dynasty and further gain the respect of his teammates would he ever consider this? I'm sure his agent wouldn't be happy but I don't think money is Josh Allen's primary driving focus. To be able to keep Milano, Williams, and even pay his friend Diggs? I mean seriously, when is enough enough? Does it have to be 500 million? Isn't 350 million or 400 million enough to live comfortably for the rest of his life? Would the rest of the league, particularly the quarterbacks be critical of him for doing this? I'm just curious what everyone's take is? And if so, what would he be willing to accept? thusis year 3.... it depends on if we win the SB this year vs next year. If we don’t the next two yrs Thrn he might take a lower contract to keep more players vs having to rebuild with him getting a high contract. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boater Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 (edited) 37 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said: It's a business. It is wonderful that he has embraced the city. But he and his agent will and should fight for a fair contract. And a fair contract based on precedent is being paid at least top 3 money. There are a couple of issues that make it more challenging to take less money. First his take home pay with the state taxes is going to be less than similar deals in some other states. Second, at least so far he has not gotten the national recognition and marketing dollars that other QBs have. Rodger, Manning, and Mahommes seems like naturals in front of the camera. Brady not so much but he married a woman that has more wealth than he does. Agents have agendas too. They have more than just one client and they may not want to risk being seen as settling for a bad deal. In the end, Beane will need to find a way to build a team around a star QB that is paid top 2 or 3 money. Any home town discount won't really be that much in cap savings. Beane will need to start trading down to acquire more picks, play the comp pick game, sign some aging vets for the league minimum and draft well. All much easier said than done. Many have tried few if any have succeeded. Stop talking sense. You could be moderated out. Edited January 19, 2021 by boater 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HalftimeAdjustment Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 43 minutes ago, Redneck said: I think Josh will do the right thing for everyone - he will break the bank in a team-friendly way. One thing for sure - this off-season, he will have some endorsements and that will add to his wallet. Some, but I think his tweets from when he was a teenager will still be a problem for (non-local) bigger endorsement deals. I don't think that's necessarily "fair", but I think it's a factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Caveman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 It does seem like there's a trend where having a good to great QB isn't enough if you can't build enough of a roster around him due to $ or other factors - Deshaun Watson, Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford come to mind. I wonder also how much more he could make in national marketing deals (like Rodgers, Mahomes, have done) if he makes the Bills a regular contender - obviously easier if the team isn't cash strapped. Still, the market is probably set at around 40 mil a year for him, and I would guess that's what he'll get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 42 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said: It's a business. It is wonderful that he has embraced the city. But he and his agent will and should fight for a fair contract. And a fair contract based on precedent is being paid at least top 3 money. There are a couple of issues that make it more challenging to take less money. First his take home pay with the state taxes is going to be less than similar deals in some other states. Second, at least so far he has not gotten the national recognition and marketing dollars that other QBs have. Rodger, Manning, and Mahommes seems like naturals in front of the camera. Brady not so much but he married a woman that has more wealth than he does. Agents have agendas too. They have more than just one client and they may not want to risk being seen as settling for a bad deal. In the end, Beane will need to find a way to build a team around a star QB that is paid top 2 or 3 money. Any home town discount won't really be that much in cap savings. Beane will need to start trading down to acquire more picks, play the comp pick game, sign some aging vets for the league minimum and draft well. All much easier said than done. Many have tried few if any have succeeded. For the last five years or so, Brady has made significantly more than Gisele. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aristocrat Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 You pay guys that are mvps. You don’t pay guys that aren’t. It’s on beane to keep drafting well and getting talent on cheap rookie contracts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt_In_NH Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 (edited) Have qb salaries gone up as a percentage of the cap? To answer the ops question....yes it matters. I understand your point that he will be set for life regardless but at the same time most people will want to be paid their market value. Money is relative. What sounds like a lot to some is not enough for others. Edited January 19, 2021 by mattynh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 7 minutes ago, aristocrat said: You pay guys that are mvps. You don’t pay guys that aren’t. It’s on beane to keep drafting well and getting talent on cheap rookie contracts. If Peter King’s vote is any guide, he will tie for second with Mahomes in MVP voting — which matches exactly his tie with Mahomes for second-team AP all-pro. The last time a Bills qb made the all-pro team (first or second team) was in 1991. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sirebors Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 minute ago, mattynh said: Have qb salaries gone up as a percentage of the cap? To answer the ops question....yes it matters. I understand your point that he will be set for life regardless but at the same time most people will want to be paid their market value. Like I said before, so if they can't sign a Daryl Williams and Josh gets hurt and his career is cut short, how is that better for him or his team. If the Bills aren't able to retain Diggs and Josh Allen and the team suffers, how is that better? If the Bills don't go to the Superbowl and Josh and teammates loses millions in endorsements, how is that better? Everything isn't black and white. There are a million extenuating circumstances that make this not so cut and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt_In_NH Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 10 minutes ago, sirebors said: Like I said before, so if they can't sign a Daryl Williams and Josh gets hurt and his career is cut short, how is that better for him or his team. If the Bills aren't able to retain Diggs and Josh Allen and the team suffers, how is that better? If the Bills don't go to the Superbowl and Josh and teammates loses millions in endorsements, how is that better? Everything isn't black and white. There are a million extenuating circumstances that make this not so cut and dry. No need for dramatics. Pretty sure we are all aware there is a salary cap. There are lots of examples of teams that lose talent after paying their qb. Seahawks Texans Packers Saints. Do the qbs know this? Pretty sure they do. Brady always took less so it can happen. But it’s the exception not the rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sirebors Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, mattynh said: No need for dramatics. Pretty sure we are all aware there is a salary cap. There are lots of examples of teams that lose talent after paying their qb. Seahawks Texans Packers Saints. Do the qbs know this? Pretty sure they do. Brady always took less so it can happen. But it’s the exception not the rule. I'm not being dramatic. Trying to be a realist. Brady did it. Some posters on this board said they'd do it. It's not beyond the realm of possibility that Josh Allen could do it. Or even that free agents might do it because of certain circumstances such as being part of a winning franchise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Man with No Name Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 hour ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said: Then we better win the Super Bowl this year, because we sure as hell aren't winning it if we're paying one player that kind of money. We better not pay him any extra $ until his current contract is over. If we do, we're essentially just throwing away our best chance to win a Super Bowl. Isn't that what it's all about? Not saying I want to do this with Allen, but some team sometime is going to draft a stud rookie QB, keep him for 4 years + the 5th option year, and then let him go, having used a 1st-round pick on a replacement the year prior. It makes too much sense for some bold team to not make a habit of this. but then it makes zero sense when you realize we just waited 25 years to get a franchise qb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warcodered Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perk71 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 I like these type of discussions. These are alot better than, we took the wrong "Josh", he hasn't thrown for over 300 yards "Ever". Pay the man what he is worth when that time comes. All I can say is, I'm sure glad they picked him. Go Bills!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just be prepared to start finding our players in the draft..... Josh is gonna be expensive.....that is the blessing (and the curse) of having a franchise QB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machine gun kelly Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 8 hours ago, HOUSE said: Frack, frack, frack Been watching Battlestar Galactica again? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BruceVilanch Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 11 hours ago, boater said: Home is important. That's why I moved back to this frozen tundra after 25 years away, Home has drawing power. Where am I going with this? Josh is West Coast born and raised. I could see him spurning Buffalo offers and signing withe the 49's, Raiders, or some other West Coast club. Let's not forget the influence of his girl friend, who seems Cali all the way. Early front-runner for dumbest take of the year. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Call_Of_Ktulu Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 The Pegulas need to pay him Under the table like the Patriots did with Brady. Give him 30mil a year and another 10 to circumvent the cap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Estro Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Allen's new contract is as follows: Floor: $39M yr. (Watson deal 4 yr. - $156M) Ceiling: $45M yr (Mahomes 10 yr. - $450M) I expect Allen's extension to be richer and longer than Watson's, but it won't exceed Mahomes money or term. Prediction: 6 yr. - $252M extension ($42M per) With 2 years left on his deal @ $3.5M in '21 and $25M in '22 (5th yr option). That would make the total value of Allen's new deal 8 yrs. - $280M ($35M/per) '21 - $12M (cash), $6M (cap hit) '22 - $23M, $16M '23 - $30M, $24M '24 - $42M, $42M '25 - $40M, $42M '26 - $43M, $48M '27 - $44M, $50M '28 - $46M, $52M 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Victory Formation Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 I don’t think he should.. This will be his first big pay day, pay him what he’s worth.. This isn’t an established 10-15 year vet, let him eat.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Junction Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 14 hours ago, BearNorth said: Josh is repped by Creative Artists Agency, e.g. Hollywood folk. They make their money from the deals they get for their clients. They don't give two figs about salary cap and team chemistry. He will get the top dollar for who ever gets paid that year. Doubt Hollywood sharks will ever take a hometown discount. Hollywood agents are very accustomed to lower money deals. They negotiate them quite often, especially when it improves the clients brand and future value. All those art films, side projects, and tv cameos don’t pay the big bucks. What they’re brilliant at is finding extra avenues for revenue, and they’re willing to adapt to attain long term goals and rebrand clients. All that said, I doubt Allen takes some major hometown discount without other factors.... Major endorsement deal (think nba $$$), fully guaranteed contract, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hondo in seattle Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Let’s say it’s $400m for 10 years. Assuming he continues to perform, we’ll love that contract 5 years from now when the top QBs are signing deals for $50m plus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ytownblofan Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 2 hours ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said: The Pegulas need to pay him Under the table like the Patriots did with Brady. Give him 30mil a year and another 10 to circumvent the cap. I came here to say the same thing 😂 Any chance JA17 wants to open his own gym that the Bills can send their players to 😉 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColoradoBills Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 hour ago, Estro said: Allen's new contract is as follows: Floor: $39M yr. (Watson deal 4 yr. - $156M) Ceiling: $45M yr (Mahomes 10 yr. - $450M) I expect Allen's extension to be richer and longer than Watson's, but it won't exceed Mahomes money or term. Prediction: 6 yr. - $252M extension ($42M per) With 2 years left on his deal @ $3.5M in '21 and $25M in '22 (5th yr option). That would make the total value of Allen's new deal 8 yrs. - $280M ($35M/per) '21 - $12M (cash), $6M (cap hit) '22 - $23M, $16M '23 - $30M, $24M '24 - $42M, $42M '25 - $40M, $42M '26 - $43M, $48M '27 - $44M, $50M '28 - $46M, $52M You are most likely correct with the overall numbers. How the 5 year split of the signing bonus v roster bonus (Mahomes deal) is debatable but your overall idea is probably very close IMO. One thing I don't understand is Josh is due $6.9M in 2021 (4th year of rookie deal) and it seems you have $3.5M. 6 year extension I think is the minimum in length and I could see a 7 year contract but that also is debatable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jletha Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Why cant teams tie a QB pay to a % of the cap instead of an absolute number? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Royale with Cheese Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 He better start providing evidence where his charity money is going or that mother****** can leave the Bills. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nextmanup Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 (edited) 16 hours ago, BITE ME said: He isn't getting $500 million unless they win the Super Bowl. If he wins a Super Bowl he is worth the $500 million. The quarterback that brings the city of Buffalo their first world championship should be the highest paid player in the NFL. You have a lot of bias built into that. Not sure your conclusions are valid. 16 hours ago, Neo said: I don’t think you “sign” team friendly deals as often as you “restructure” later to be team friendly as you continue to win and be competitive. If i’m his agent, I say “get every penny today. You can always accommodate later, on your terms, when you want to.” The goal of all sports agents is to get as much $ up front in a new K, today. The goal of all GMs is to defer compensation as far away into the future as possible, while paying as little as possible. This is true. Before we all worry about how we are going to pay Josh 10 trillion dollars for the next 2 decades, can we see if he can maintain this calibre of play first? There is a TON of recent history showing superstar QBs fading as their career progresses. Ask RGIII or Wentz or Kaepernick what I'm talking about. Edited January 19, 2021 by Nextmanup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Call_Of_Ktulu Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 The reason for the decline in play is because after you pay a QB 40 mil a year there is no cap room to sign anyone else. I would prefer to go all out offense and have McD and Frazier build a solid no name defense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearNorth Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 21 minutes ago, Nextmanup said: You have a lot of bias built into that. Not sure your conclusions are valid. The goal of all sports agents is to get as much $ up front in a new K, today. The goal of all GMs is to defer compensation as far away into the future as possible, while paying as little as possible. This is true. Before we all worry about how we are going to pay Josh 10 trillion dollars for the next 2 decades, can we see if he can maintain this calibre of play first? There is a TON of recent history showing superstar QBs fading as their career progresses. Ask RGIII or Wentz or Kaepernick what I'm talking about. Cam falls into that group as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Billieve Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 When a team is certain they have their QB then they can do a 10 year deal that's really great for both sides. This sort of thing is an obvious slam dunk that most teams can't even consider since they lack certainty. Todays dollars in no way resemble 2030 dollars, honestly I just feel bad for other teams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sirebors Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 minute ago, Steve Billieve said: When a team is certain they have their QB then they can do a 10 year deal that's really great for both sides. This sort of thing is an obvious slam dunk that most teams can't even consider since they lack certainty. Todays dollars in no way resemble 2030 dollars, honestly I just feel bad for other teams. This is probably true and would be amazing if the Bills did it. You bite the bullet a little in the beginning and then pray he stays healthy and maintains his upward trajectory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itaos Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 50 minutes ago, jletha said: Why cant teams tie a QB pay to a % of the cap instead of an absolute number? With recent talks of the cap possibly decreasing, why would an agent allow it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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