Big Turk Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Reich credited his decision to go for it on 4th and goal from the 4 late in the 1st half and his decision to go for 2 that he didn't get from the 1 yard line after the Bills penalty to analytics... This is why following analytics is such a tricky thing...small sample size. Yes, out of 100 times, you might be better off with analytics 65 of them but those other 35 are not going to work and in 1 or 2 situations a game, there aren't enough opportunities for analytics to make up the difference. Analytics should be a tool but buyer beware on relying on it to win amy single game. Over the course of 10 years it might win you more games than it loses you but it also might get you fired in year 3 if enough of them don't work in your favor. 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Generic_Bills_Fan Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Just now, Big Turk said: Reich credited his decision to go for it on 4th and goal from the 4 late in the 1st half and his decision to go for 2 that he didn't get from the 1 yard line after the Bills penalty to analytics... This is why following analytics is such a tricky thing...small sample size. Yes, out of 100 times, you might be better off with analytics 65 of them but those other 35 are not going to work and in 1 or 2 situations a game, there aren't enough opportunities for analytics to make up the difference. Analytics should be a tool but buyer beware on relying on it to win amy single game. Over the course of 10 years it might win you more games than it loses you but it also might get you fired in year 3 if enough of them don't work in your favor. I'm sure he didn't expect us to march 96 yards down the field after going for it on that 4th and goal...I wonder how often that happens when you're backed up on your own goal line. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted January 10, 2021 Author Share Posted January 10, 2021 Just now, Generic_Bills_Fan said: I'm sure he didn't expect us to march 96 yards down the field after going for it on that 4th and goal...I wonder how often that happens when you're backed up on your own goal line. But it does happen...that is kinds the point...analytics says something likely won't happen but it did... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Process Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 I think both decisions were right. Can't be results oriented. They clearly were scared if the bills offense and wanted to be aggressive. I like it. The final two minutes though, that's another story. Specifically after the bs non fumble. They completely botched it. That's probably more on Rivers though. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Generic_Bills_Fan Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Just now, Big Turk said: But it does happen...that is kinds the point...analytics says something likely won't happen but it did... Yea im sure part of it is they have a playcall theyre confident in too...that part of it doesn't really get quantified. Rivers just put a little too much on that pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 7 minutes ago, Big Turk said: Reich credited his decision to go for it on 4th and goal from the 4 late in the 1st half and his decision to go for 2 that he didn't get from the 1 yard line after the Bills penalty to analytics... This is why following analytics is such a tricky thing...small sample size. Yes, out of 100 times, you might be better off with analytics 65 of them but those other 35 are not going to work and in 1 or 2 situations a game, there aren't enough opportunities for analytics to make up the difference. Analytics should be a tool but buyer beware on relying on it to win amy single game. Over the course of 10 years it might win you more games than it loses you but it also might get you fired in year 3 if enough of them don't work in your favor. Yep. If you win two games in week 4 and 5 that isn't equal to blowing a game in the playoffs a year later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warcodered Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 I mean I get that going for 2 after the penalty is great odds but it just seems like a misjudgment on what you're risking at that moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That's No Moon Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Frankie, you're my brother and I love you; but never take sides against the family. 1 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsToast Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 It's not just analytics, it's been a pretty standard procedure the last few years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bouds Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Going for 2 adds a marginal amount, Ben Baldwin has the numbers, it wasn’t bad but it wasn’t going to add much if they converted it. Going for it on 4th wasn’t a bad move, I mean folks act like the kicker automatically makes it when there’s always a chance he misses. Worst case you go for it, fail, and you pin team back where the chance of scoring a td is minuscule with that kind of starting field position. I don’t think Reich did much wrong in that game, but morons will criticism him. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Another Fan Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 12 minutes ago, Big Turk said: Reich credited his decision to go for it on 4th and goal from the 4 late in the 1st half and his decision to go for 2 that he didn't get from the 1 yard line after the Bills penalty to analytics... This is why following analytics is such a tricky thing...small sample size. Yes, out of 100 times, you might be better off with analytics 65 of them but those other 35 are not going to work and in 1 or 2 situations a game, there aren't enough opportunities for analytics to make up the difference. Analytics should be a tool but buyer beware on relying on it to win amy single game. Over the course of 10 years it might win you more games than it loses you but it also might get you fired in year 3 if enough of them don't work in your favor. I agree. What doesn't figure into analytics is well as the Bills being the type of team to feed off that. It's that last line that's the big drawback with me with analytics... sometimes players feed off something as simple as gaining an extra yard on 2nd down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Otreply Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Frank is no dummy, he fully understands that, hell even I nobody like me understands that analytics is going to fail you at a fairly high percentage of the time over a given period. It was a gamble like it is every time the Bills have gone for it on fourth down, he was trying to win, can’t really fault him for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 I think Reich made the right calls in this game. I agreed with all of them at the time. Sometimes things don't work out, though. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, bouds said: Going for 2 adds a marginal amount, Ben Baldwin has the numbers, it wasn’t bad but it wasn’t going to add much if they converted it. Going for it on 4th wasn’t a bad move, I mean folks act like the kicker automatically makes it when there’s always a chance he misses. Worst case you go for it, fail, and you pin team back where the chance of scoring a td is minuscule with that kind of starting field position. I don’t think Reich did much wrong in that game, but morons will criticism him. He coached a great game. Gave the hottest team in football with the best QB in football all they could handle, on the road. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatloaf63 Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 10 minutes ago, Warcodered said: I mean I get that going for 2 after the penalty is great odds but it just seems like a misjudgment on what you're risking at that moment. The missed two point was made up for later it was the missed touchdown that killed them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warcodered Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Just now, Meatloaf63 said: The missed two point was made up for later it was the missed touchdown that killed them yeah they didn't have a penalty to help them the second time much riskier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bferra13 Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 8 minutes ago, BillsToast said: It's not just analytics, it's been a pretty standard procedure the last few years. Going for it 4th and goal from the 4 has been standard? Not the NFL I've been watching. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cruiserplayer Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Josh Allen disrupts ALL analytics!! Just ask Chris Collinsworth! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Special K Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 (edited) Get the analytics nerds out of football....they ruined baseball, they ruined poker, now they are ruining football. In this scenario, I’m glad the Colts followed the analytics, but as a general rule I think it’s mostly just out-smarting yourself. Edited January 10, 2021 by Special K 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rocky Landing Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Well, if Reich knew his opponent better, he wouldn't have gone for it on that fourth and goal where they turned it over on downs. The current Bills have a very good record on those stands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 1 hour ago, Big Turk said: Reich credited his decision to go for it on 4th and goal from the 4 late in the 1st half and his decision to go for 2 that he didn't get from the 1 yard line after the Bills penalty to analytics... This is why following analytics is such a tricky thing...small sample size. Yes, out of 100 times, you might be better off with analytics 65 of them but those other 35 are not going to work and in 1 or 2 situations a game, there aren't enough opportunities for analytics to make up the difference. Analytics should be a tool but buyer beware on relying on it to win amy single game. Over the course of 10 years it might win you more games than it loses you but it also might get you fired in year 3 if enough of them don't work in your favor. It's always a great idea until you fail. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nextmanup Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 1 hour ago, Big Turk said: Reich credited his decision to go for it on 4th and goal from the 4 late in the 1st half and his decision to go for 2 that he didn't get from the 1 yard line after the Bills penalty to analytics... This is why following analytics is such a tricky thing...small sample size. Yes, out of 100 times, you might be better off with analytics 65 of them but those other 35 are not going to work and in 1 or 2 situations a game, there aren't enough opportunities for analytics to make up the difference. Analytics should be a tool but buyer beware on relying on it to win amy single game. Over the course of 10 years it might win you more games than it loses you but it also might get you fired in year 3 if enough of them don't work in your favor. That's not how it works. It's not about finding the "right" answer in a specific game. It is about doing what brings with it the highest probably of success. But it's just a probability, which means there is a chance to be unsuccessful too. If I flip a coin 10 times in a row, I am unlikely to get heads 10 times, but you might. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Krentist Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 I agree with him going for it on 4th and goal. The way the Bills offense was playing at the time, it looked like the odds of them marching down the field was unlikely. We got bailed out by a slightly poor throw. As for going for 2, it evened out when they converted on the next TD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strive_for_five_guy Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 It’s like a game of blackjack. Even playing by the book you can still lose, but doesn’t necessarily mean you made the wrong call. You win some, you lose some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jkeerie Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 1 hour ago, Big Turk said: Reich credited his decision to go for it on 4th and goal from the 4 late in the 1st half and his decision to go for 2 that he didn't get from the 1 yard line after the Bills penalty to analytics... This is why following analytics is such a tricky thing...small sample size. Yes, out of 100 times, you might be better off with analytics 65 of them but those other 35 are not going to work and in 1 or 2 situations a game, there aren't enough opportunities for analytics to make up the difference. Analytics should be a tool but buyer beware on relying on it to win amy single game. Over the course of 10 years it might win you more games than it loses you but it also might get you fired in year 3 if enough of them don't work in your favor. Coaches have to go by feel and gut irrespective of analytics. On the goal line, Rivers had been converting short yardage plays prior and their D was keeping our O pinned prior. So I can't disagree with the decision. On going for two...I probably would have kicked it to make it a 7 pt game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed_Formerly_of_Roch Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 1 hour ago, Big Turk said: Reich credited his decision to go for it on 4th and goal from the 4 late in the 1st half and his decision to go for 2 that he didn't get from the 1 yard line after the Bills penalty to analytics... This is why following analytics is such a tricky thing...small sample size. Yes, out of 100 times, you might be better off with analytics 65 of them but those other 35 are not going to work and in 1 or 2 situations a game, there aren't enough opportunities for analytics to make up the difference. Analytics should be a tool but buyer beware on relying on it to win amy single game. Over the course of 10 years it might win you more games than it loses you but it also might get you fired in year 3 if enough of them don't work in your favor. Going for two didn't really hurt them at all, as they missed that time, but made the next one so netted a total of two points. If they had kicked the first, I'm about 99% certain, they'd have also kicked the second so same outcome, unless we again jumped Offside on the kick. Going for it on 4th down, yeah didn't work out very well, though I'm guessing part of Reich's thinking may have been based on figuring the Bills were likely going to score 30 to 40 points in the game so he felt they needed more points too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ga boy Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said: Going for two didn't really hurt them at all, as they missed that time, but made the next one so netted a total of two points. If they had kicked the first, I'm about 99% certain, they'd have also kicked the second so same outcome, unless we again jumped Offside on the kick. Going for it on 4th down, yeah didn't work out very well, though I'm guessing part of Reich's thinking may have been based on figuring the Bills were likely going to score 30 to 40 points in the game so he felt they needed more points too. IF we're playing KC for the crown, I'd want us to go for it on 4th down, and go for 2 from the 1. When you know a team can score big, you need to take some risks. If both work, they prolly win. Frank can stand before the Indy team and fans and say he believed in his team with those decisions. Go Bills!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malazan Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Analytics should inform decisions, not make them. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Caveman Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 They went for it on 4th and didn't pick it up, we went for it on 4th and did - to me it's more execution than coaching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mabden Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 2 hours ago, Big Turk said: But it does happen...that is kinds the point...analytics says something likely won't happen but it did... The Bills have done it several times this year. Frank should have known. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnNord Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 3 hours ago, Process said: I think both decisions were right. Can't be results oriented. They clearly were scared if the bills offense and wanted to be aggressive. I like it. The final two minutes though, that's another story. Specifically after the bs non fumble. They completely botched it. That's probably more on Rivers though. This is along the lines of what I think. I think Reich is getting too much crap for the call. You don’t beat scoring teams like the Bills with FG’s. I think he saw an opportunity to go up 10 on the Bills and put a lot of pressure on them going into the second half. The logic was good and even the play that was called was a good one. The execution with Rivers and Pittman was just a little off. So while the result was poor the thinking was good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rochesterfan Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 3 hours ago, Big Turk said: Reich credited his decision to go for it on 4th and goal from the 4 late in the 1st half and his decision to go for 2 that he didn't get from the 1 yard line after the Bills penalty to analytics... This is why following analytics is such a tricky thing...small sample size. Yes, out of 100 times, you might be better off with analytics 65 of them but those other 35 are not going to work and in 1 or 2 situations a game, there aren't enough opportunities for analytics to make up the difference. Analytics should be a tool but buyer beware on relying on it to win amy single game. Over the course of 10 years it might win you more games than it loses you but it also might get you fired in year 3 if enough of them don't work in your favor. Analytics is a tool you are correct, but since you do not know when it is going to work and when it isn’t - you either have to be all in or not. It is easy after the fact to second guess things, but the analytics should provide you with reasons. I had no issue with them going for it on 4th down - I believe that decision was made once they got inside the 5, but the 3rd down play was terrible and really should have changed their mind to the FG to build their lead. There was a chance for the Bills to score, but they should have taken the points when they lost yardage on 3rd down. Going for 2 was a bit mind blowing to me because it had little impact if they got it. It could have prevented a tie, but getting/failing on 2 pts. did not significantly increase their chances. In the end it balanced out with the successful try, but then that was critical. I thought Frank played an ultra conservative gameplan, but then made ultra aggressive decisions and that does not always go together. If you are going to play a run heavy, short passing attack to keep the clock moving and really limit possession- then you need to score when you have chances and he cost the team points that mattered in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freddie's Dead Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 5 hours ago, That's No Moon said: Frankie, you're my brother and I love you; but never take sides against the family. It was you Frankie, you broke my haht. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QCity Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 5 hours ago, Big Turk said: But it does happen...that is kinds the point...analytics says something likely won't happen but it did... It's very easy to point out when analytics doesn't work, but often goes unmentioned when it does work. If an event has 80/20 chance of success, it doesn't mean you made the wrong decision if the 20% outcome arises. I think that's the most difficult thing for fans to understand. I also think that the decision to go for 2 had more to do with the stadium and their kicker. Blankenship was having an amazing season, but he missed 2 FG's last week, and another one today. Reich knows as well as anyone how challenging it is to kick here in January, especially for a rookie kicker. I'm surprised the broadcast crew didn't touch on this more. In the end, the Bills were the slightly better team today. Our kicker made all his kicks, their's didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted January 10, 2021 Author Share Posted January 10, 2021 22 minutes ago, QCity said: It's very easy to point out when analytics doesn't work, but often goes unmentioned when it does work. If an event has 80/20 chance of success, it doesn't mean you made the wrong decision if the 20% outcome arises. I think that's the most difficult thing for fans to understand. I also think that the decision to go for 2 had more to do with the stadium and their kicker. Blankenship was having an amazing season, but he missed 2 FG's last week, and another one today. Reich knows as well as anyone how challenging it is to kick here in January, especially for a rookie kicker. I'm surprised the broadcast crew didn't touch on this more. In the end, the Bills were the slightly better team today. Our kicker made all his kicks, their's didn't. The thing I am impressed with most is the Colts played a near perfect game and brought their A game today. We played OK but we brought our B- game, especially on D and Daboll's playcalling and still won. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sullim4 Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 The thing missing here is that broad analytics treat situations as though "everything is equal." They do not take into consideration the emotion, momentum, or intangibles that play into a given situation. If you're playing against the Jets, for instance, giving them the ball late in the 2nd quarter at their own 4 gives them nearly zero probability to score. But Allen and the Bills? Not so much, and it turned out that the Bills did just that, and stole the momentum from the Colts going into halftime. FWIW, I liked the 2pt play after the penalty on their part, but I thought the 4th down call was too aggressive given the situation and what the turnover on downs meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsToast Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 On 1/9/2021 at 6:27 PM, Bferra13 said: Going for it 4th and goal from the 4 has been standard? Not the NFL I've been watching. The last 2-3 years it has. The same NFL that goes for it around the 40 yard line on 4th and 3. Game changed. Doug Peterson was the starter of this and his OC was Reich. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bferra13 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 1 minute ago, BillsToast said: The last 2-3 years it has. The same NFL that goes for it around the 40 yard line on 4th and 3. Game changed. Doug Peterson was the starter of this and his OC was Reich. Well its doubly dumb in the playoffs at that moment with those circumstances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 On 1/9/2021 at 7:04 PM, Big Turk said: Reich credited his decision to go for it on 4th and goal from the 4 late in the 1st half and his decision to go for 2 that he didn't get from the 1 yard line after the Bills penalty to analytics... This is why following analytics is such a tricky thing...small sample size. Yes, out of 100 times, you might be better off with analytics 65 of them but those other 35 are not going to work and in 1 or 2 situations a game, there aren't enough opportunities for analytics to make up the difference. Analytics should be a tool but buyer beware on relying on it to win amy single game. Over the course of 10 years it might win you more games than it loses you but it also might get you fired in year 3 if enough of them don't work in your favor. On 1/9/2021 at 8:16 PM, PromoTheRobot said: It's always a great idea until you fail. These arguments are the reasons that professional football is still in the Stone Age. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsToast Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 (edited) 36 minutes ago, Bferra13 said: Well its doubly dumb in the playoffs at that moment with those circumstances. Not really. Where's the proof it is? 1 time is an anecdote. Pederson and Reich won a Superbowl with an inferior team using odds in their favor with a backup QB. Edited January 11, 2021 by BillsToast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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