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Reich in large part may have lost due to his reliance on analytics...a cautionary tale


Big Turk
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Reich credited his decision to go for it on 4th and goal from the 4 late in the 1st half and his decision to go for 2 that he didn't get from the 1 yard line after the Bills penalty to analytics...

 

This is why following analytics is such a tricky thing...small sample size. Yes, out of 100 times, you might be better off with analytics 65 of them but those other 35 are not going to work and in 1 or 2 situations a game, there aren't enough opportunities for analytics to make up the difference.

 

Analytics should be a tool but buyer beware on relying on it to win amy single game. Over the course of 10 years it might win you more games than it loses you but it also might get you fired in year 3 if enough of them don't work in your favor.

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Just now, Big Turk said:

Reich credited his decision to go for it on 4th and goal from the 4 late in the 1st half and his decision to go for 2 that he didn't get from the 1 yard line after the Bills penalty to analytics...

 

This is why following analytics is such a tricky thing...small sample size. Yes, out of 100 times, you might be better off with analytics 65 of them but those other 35 are not going to work and in 1 or 2 situations a game, there aren't enough opportunities for analytics to make up the difference.

 

Analytics should be a tool but buyer beware on relying on it to win amy single game. Over the course of 10 years it might win you more games than it loses you but it also might get you fired in year 3 if enough of them don't work in your favor.

I'm sure he didn't expect us to march 96 yards down the field after going for it on that 4th and goal...I wonder how often that happens when you're backed up on your own goal line.  

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Just now, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I'm sure he didn't expect us to march 96 yards down the field after going for it on that 4th and goal...I wonder how often that happens when you're backed up on your own goal line.  

 

But it does happen...that is kinds the point...analytics says something likely won't happen but it did...

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I think both decisions were right. Can't be results oriented. They clearly were scared if the bills offense and wanted to be aggressive. I like it. 

 

The final two minutes though, that's another story. Specifically after the bs non fumble. They completely botched it.

 

That's probably more on Rivers though.

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Just now, Big Turk said:

 

But it does happen...that is kinds the point...analytics says something likely won't happen but it did...

Yea im sure part of it is they have a playcall theyre confident in too...that part of it doesn't really get quantified.  Rivers just put a little too much on that pass

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7 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Reich credited his decision to go for it on 4th and goal from the 4 late in the 1st half and his decision to go for 2 that he didn't get from the 1 yard line after the Bills penalty to analytics...

 

This is why following analytics is such a tricky thing...small sample size. Yes, out of 100 times, you might be better off with analytics 65 of them but those other 35 are not going to work and in 1 or 2 situations a game, there aren't enough opportunities for analytics to make up the difference.

 

Analytics should be a tool but buyer beware on relying on it to win amy single game. Over the course of 10 years it might win you more games than it loses you but it also might get you fired in year 3 if enough of them don't work in your favor.

 

Yep. If you win two games in week 4 and 5 that isn't equal to blowing a game in the playoffs a year later. 

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Going for 2 adds a marginal amount, Ben Baldwin has the numbers, it wasn’t bad but it wasn’t going to add much if they converted it.  Going for it on 4th wasn’t a bad move, I mean folks act like the kicker automatically makes it when there’s always a chance he misses.  Worst case you go for it, fail, and you pin team back where the chance of scoring a td is minuscule with that kind of starting field position.  I don’t think Reich did much wrong in that game, but morons will criticism him.

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12 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Reich credited his decision to go for it on 4th and goal from the 4 late in the 1st half and his decision to go for 2 that he didn't get from the 1 yard line after the Bills penalty to analytics...

 

This is why following analytics is such a tricky thing...small sample size. Yes, out of 100 times, you might be better off with analytics 65 of them but those other 35 are not going to work and in 1 or 2 situations a game, there aren't enough opportunities for analytics to make up the difference.

 

Analytics should be a tool but buyer beware on relying on it to win amy single game. Over the course of 10 years it might win you more games than it loses you but it also might get you fired in year 3 if enough of them don't work in your favor.

I agree.  What doesn't figure into analytics is well as the Bills being the type of team to feed off that.  It's that last line that's the big drawback with me with analytics...  sometimes players feed off something as simple as gaining an extra yard on 2nd down 

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Frank is no dummy, he fully understands that, hell even I nobody like me understands that analytics is going to fail you at a fairly high percentage of the time over a given period. It was a gamble like it is every time the Bills have gone for it on fourth down, he was trying to win, can’t really fault him for that. 

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3 minutes ago, bouds said:

Going for 2 adds a marginal amount, Ben Baldwin has the numbers, it wasn’t bad but it wasn’t going to add much if they converted it.  Going for it on 4th wasn’t a bad move, I mean folks act like the kicker automatically makes it when there’s always a chance he misses.  Worst case you go for it, fail, and you pin team back where the chance of scoring a td is minuscule with that kind of starting field position.  I don’t think Reich did much wrong in that game, but morons will criticism him.

He coached a great game.  Gave the hottest team in football with the best QB in football all they could handle, on the road.

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10 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

I mean I get that going for 2 after the penalty is great odds but it just seems like a misjudgment on what you're risking at that moment.

The missed two point was made up for later it was the missed touchdown that killed them

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Get the analytics nerds out of football....they ruined baseball, they ruined poker, now they are ruining football.

 

In this scenario, I’m glad the Colts followed the analytics, but as a general rule I think it’s mostly just out-smarting yourself.

Edited by Special K
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