Week 10: Bills at Cardinals

[Back2Buff]

6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Maybe go off your Mark I eyeballs looking at the game? 

 

 

Ah, yes, Football Outsiders - Aaron Schatz outfit that pre-draft called Allen "A parody of an NFL quarterback prospect..... We don’t want to say there’s absolutely no chance he’ll ever be good.....but there is zero empirical evidence to support him becoming a reasonable NFL starting quarterback.  ... Allen is the battleground that old scouts are going to die on, whether they’re right about it or, as all evidence suggests, wrong about it."
 

and last year doubled down: "“I’m just not a Josh Allen believer. I do not think there is an NFL starting quarterback in there waiting to come out and develop. And if I’m wrong then, you know, they’ve done a lot to give him help, but if I’m right then they’re still in trouble.”

 

The bottom line is, these types of analytics have two types of fans: those who embrace them, and those who are stone-cold skeptics across the board.  Count me in the latter group.

 

There are positions in Football that McDermott refers to as "unselfish positions" because when they're done according to their assignment, they don't rack up much in the way of simplified stats, and they're problematic for modern analytics (the sort that use subjective eyeball grading to generate objective-looking numbers) because the grader doesn't know the assignment.  You really only notice them when quality play isn't there.  OL, interior DL, and FS are among those positions.

 

 

Still waiting for you to acknowledge that your take "It's crazy how Hyde playing or not playing has zero effect on this defense" can possibly be supported when we just haven't seen the Bills play without Hyde very much (and I'm hoping that doesn't change this weekend, assuming he's healthy enough).....

 

 

 

The eye ball test is not good with Hyde.  He is routinely called out by the broadcasters as not being in the proper position, you can go back and watch the Tennessee game if you want multiple examples.

 

The defense has not been good this year.  Hyde has been called out with mistakes, he is not putting up stats, and his PFF is not good.  Seriously, someone tell me where he is supposedly impacting the game?  I could see if our defense was playing lights out, then I can understand saying he is 1/11 of the greater good.  However, he gets to play with a guy like Poyer and White.  In terms of the NFL, Hyde is in bottom tier of FS.  He is getting older, not sure why people get so worked up over it.  It's like they have blinders on for him because he was once our best defender.

[Nineforty]

19 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

The bottom line is, these types of analytics have two types of fans: those who embrace them, and those who are stone-cold skeptics across the board.  Count me in the latter group.

 

For me it's a spectrum, not two boxes we all fit in. At different points in my life I've been at different ends of the spectrum. And currently, I'm somewhere in the middle, which won't win you any Takies. But I try to fall in the middle. Not just for the sake of being in the middle, but because some new ideas are great, and some are trash. Some theories need time to prove themselves, or show themselves as frauds.

[YoloinOhio]

 

[thebandit27]

20 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:

 

The eye ball test is not good with Hyde.  He is routinely called out by the broadcasters as not being in the proper position, you can go back and watch the Tennessee game if you want multiple examples.

 

The defense has not been good this year.  Hyde has been called out with mistakes, he is not putting up stats, and his PFF is not good.  Seriously, someone tell me where he is supposedly impacting the game?  I could see if our defense was playing lights out, then I can understand saying he is 1/11 of the greater good.  However, he gets to play with a guy like Poyer and White.  In terms of the NFL, Hyde is in bottom tier of FS.  He is getting older, not sure why people get so worked up over it.  It's like they have blinders on for him because he was once our best defender.

Exactly how many times has he been out of position on a pass play? I’m curious because he’s only been targeted 12 times—all season. That’s by far the fewest of the 6 DBs that we’ve called starters (I’m counting both Norman and Levi as well as Taron).

 

And of those 6 DBs, he’s allowed the fewest completions, for the fewest yards, and fewest YAC.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2020_advanced.htm

 

[dollars 2 donuts]

The Bills should be getting rid of the rock all over the field on Sunday like it was asking Josh to date his sister.  

 

Sure, run sometimes, but if I may paraphrase Coach Green, "We are who we think we are."  

 

We need to impose our will, like Kelly and Company, and not game plan with "take what they give us", in mind. 

 

Sure, it may not work all the time, but I am good with going with the paraphrasing of the late Coach, above.

Edited November 13, 2020 by dollars 2 donuts

[ColoradoBills]

33 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:

 

The eye ball test is not good with Hyde.  He is routinely called out by the broadcasters as not being in the proper position, you can go back and watch the Tennessee game if you want multiple examples.

 

The defense has not been good this year.  Hyde has been called out with mistakes, he is not putting up stats, and his PFF is not good.  Seriously, someone tell me where he is supposedly impacting the game?  I could see if our defense was playing lights out, then I can understand saying he is 1/11 of the greater good.  However, he gets to play with a guy like Poyer and White.  In terms of the NFL, Hyde is in bottom tier of FS.  He is getting older, not sure why people get so worked up over it.  It's like they have blinders on for him because he was once our best defender.

 

He is 29 years old as we type.  You actually think that is the problem here?

[McGahee]

7 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

Bills have more wins against teams with current winning records (4) than any team in the AFC. Maybe the nfc too but I didn’t take the time to review it. 

 

I said good teams. Not teams with winning records.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

46 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

Del'Shawn Phillips to the IR per Bills Text

 

I have to say "time".  Enough is enough.

 

46 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

Darren Lee promotion in the near future?

 

Do you think a week and a few days is enough for him to be ready?

[ColoradoBills]

1 minute ago, McGahee said:

 

I said good teams. Not teams with winning records.

 

Do you have a complete list of these "good" teams?

[McGahee]

11 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Raiders, Fins, and Rams are all 5-3.  They're good.  Not elite but good.

Trash, mega trash and super trash.

[Stank_Nasty]

So i've read a bit about Baker being a go for them this week. DNP, DNP, and a Limited really mean he's a good shot to go?

[Greg S]

Just now, ColoradoBills said:

 

Do you have a complete list of these "good" teams?

 

The Bills have beaten good teams (Rams, Seahawks, Dolphins, Raiders) but only a win over the Steelers will give the Bills respect with the media. No matter who else they beat their will be excuses. The 49ers are to injured, the Cards are an OK team but nothing special etc etc etc.

[Ya Digg?]

1 minute ago, McGahee said:

Trash, mega trash and super trash.

They all have the same amount of losses as Tennessee-does that mean the Bills also lost to a trash team? Or a mega trash team? Or a super trash team? Just going off your logic, the Bills are 1-1 against good teams 

[ColoradoBills]

3 minutes ago, Greg S said:

 

The Bills have beaten good teams (Rams, Seahawks, Dolphins, Raiders) but only a win over the Steelers will give the Bills respect with the media. No matter who else they beat their will be excuses. The 49ers are to injured, the Cards are an OK team but nothing special etc etc etc.

 

You are probably right.  Personally I don't get this whole "media" recognition thing.  I truly could care less.

I do want the Bills to beat the Steelers!  LOL.

[Mango]

45 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

Wowza. Just to break that AZ list down for everybody: 

OUT: 
DT1

DT2
RG1
QUESTIONABLE: 
FS1
FS2
CB2
RB1

TE1

If I am Buffalo, I come in the same way we did against SEA and dare them to try and keep up with half their starting D either out or injured this week. 

 

[K-9]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I don't think it's true that they play a predominantly man scheme.  But even in zone, if they don't manage to confuse him or apply pressure, he is learning to stand in and pick them apart.   

I honestly don’t know what AZ’s predominant coverage schemes are, but if they DO play man as was posited in the post I responded to initially, then we will shred it. 
 

Great point about Allen flattening the curve vs. the types of zone coverages he’s been seeing since the Titans game. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

29 minutes ago, Ya Digg? said:

They all have the same amount of losses as Tennessee-does that mean the Bills also lost to a trash team? Or a mega trash team? Or a super trash team? Just going off your logic, the Bills are 1-1 against good teams 

 

I think trying to go off this one's logic is an exercise in futility.  As @Chandler#81 would say, I have a knack for predicting these things.

1 hour ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

Holy crikey...Matt Barkley is just not what you'd think of a football player lol that video is hilarious.

 

The who is the best athlete one?  Yeah, get a load of Josh and Matt's facial expressions while Josh is telling him that Reid Ferguson had a 94 mph fastball in HS. 

"Really?"  "No" 

[Rochesterfan]

4 minutes ago, Mango said:

Wowza. Just to break that AZ list down for everybody: 

OUT: 
DT1

DT2
RG1
QUESTIONABLE: 
FS1
FS2
CB2
RB1

TE1

If I am Buffalo, I come in the same way we did against SEA and dare them to try and keep up with half their starting D either out or injured this week. 

 

 

I don’t know - they like NE played a bunch of 0-4-7 and 0-5-6 defenses (no DLine) just a scrum of DBs and LBs near the line of scrimmage.  
 

I think you really want to run over this team with a solid running attack and play action passes. 
 

The strength of the Cards is the back end much like NE.  Force them to commit to stopping your running attack and then beat the DBs with play action.

 

 

[NewEra]

9 minutes ago, Mango said:

Wowza. Just to break that AZ list down for everybody: 

OUT: 
DT1

DT2
RG1
QUESTIONABLE: 
FS1
FS2
CB2
RB1

TE1

If I am Buffalo, I come in the same way we did against SEA and dare them to try and keep up with half their starting D either out or injured this week. 

 

The cards play a 3-4.  Phillips and Fotu are DEs.   Their starting NT, Corey Peters is playing.  Their backup DEs are are 290 and 315 LBs.  They traded for Markus golden, so they have him and Reddick to provide pass rush.  While the DL is hampered, (more so with the loss of Chandler Jones), they still have some big bodies to stuff the run.  

[Comebackkid]

53 minutes ago, McGahee said:

Trash, mega trash and super trash.

Welcome to the board and for your hot takes 🙄🙄

[BillsFan619]

1 hour ago, McGahee said:

Trash, mega trash and super trash.

So the Raiders are trash even though they beat the Chiefs?

 

i’m not saying that their world beaters but come on man!

[RichRiderBills]

43 minutes ago, Mango said:

Wowza. Just to break that AZ list down for everybody: 

OUT: 
DT1

DT2
RG1
QUESTIONABLE: 
FS1
FS2
CB2
RB1

TE1

If I am Buffalo, I come in the same way we did against SEA and dare them to try and keep up with half their starting D either out or injured this week. 

 

 

Nah, I'd use some balance. Feed Moss ....play action...nice mix.  Can't sling it every game.

[TBBills]

13 minutes ago, RichRiderBills said:

 

Nah, I'd use some balance. Feed Moss ....play action...nice mix.  Can't sling it every game.

Yes you can...

[Inigo Montoya]

Just jumped into this thread on page 30, forgive if this has been discussed previously...

 

The Bills were pretty successful containing Lamar Jackson's running ability last year when we played.  We will face the same challenge Sunday against Kyler Murray.  The problem is that we are missing players that were instrumental in limiting Jackson last year.  We are without Milano and Zo Alexander who combined for 15 tackles in that game and helped provide effective edge containment against Jackson.

 

I'm not sure we have anyone on our roster with the mobility to do what Zo and Milano did last year.  Frazier and McDermott are going to have to figure something else out, I don't think they can recycle that Raven's game plan this weekend because we simply don't have the personnel to execute it.

 

 

[YattaOkasan]

29 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

Just jumped into this thread on page 30, forgive if this has been discussed previously...

 

The Bills were pretty successful containing Lamar Jackson's running ability last year when we played.  We will face the same challenge Sunday against Kyler Murray.  The problem is that we are missing players that were instrumental in limiting Jackson last year.  We are without Milano and Zo Alexander who combined for 15 tackles in that game and helped provide effective edge containment against Jackson.

 

I'm not sure we have anyone on our roster with the mobility to do what Zo and Milano did last year.  Frazier and McDermott are going to have to figure something else out, I don't think they can recycle that Raven's game plan this weekend because we simply don't have the personnel to execute it.

 

 

I think they are very different offenses. Ravens play option with multiple TEs. Cards spread you out with WR and play air raid. 

[Coffeesforclosers]

I wouldn't be surprised if they get another rangy DE/LB hybrid in the draft this year.  Epenesa seems to be a pure DE if/when he pans out into a starter.

 

That said, I'm now worried about Trent Murphy holding contain.

[WideNine]

I actually expect to be pretty frustrated this game with our ability to contain Murray and their running game. Expect a heavy does of RPO's of every flavor.

 

As in the Seahawks game I think TOP and turnovers will be the key. I am not anticipating a low-scoring affair. Our defense, although they play hard and were opportunistic last week, still has a lot of holes and the bounces and bad passes do not always go your way.

 

The most frustrating thing about this year is the offense is clicking, but the defense leaves every game in doubt.

 

 

[PUNT750]

With our weather forecast for Sunday it wouldn't allow either QB to show their skills!

Afternoon °F   11/15

52°   Real Feel® 37° 

Showers

Wind: SSW at 35 mph

Wind Gusts: 67 mph

Humidity: 68%

[Simon]

2 hours ago, K-9 said:

I honestly don’t know what AZ’s predominant coverage schemes are, but if they DO play man as was posited in the post I responded to initially, then we will shred it. 
 

 

If they even try it they won't stay in it for more than 2-3 series.

I thought it was gut-bustingly hysterical during the first month of the season watching teams start games in man schemes and then utterly abandon even any pretense of it in the middle of the first qrtr. 

[RichRiderBills]

16 minutes ago, WideNine said:

I actually expect to be pretty frustrated this game with our ability to contain Murray and their running game. Expect a heavy does of RPO's of every flavor.

 

As in the Seahawks game I think TOP and turnovers will be the key. I am not anticipating a low-scoring affair. Our defense, although they play hard and were opportunistic last week, still has a lot of holes and the bounces and bad passes do not always go your way.

 

The most frustrating thing about this year is the offense is clicking, but the defense leaves every game in doubt.

 

 

 

I think we have decent personel for RPO. I like the sideline to sideline quickness here, our second level help, if only we can get the tackling under grips. What worries me is a more straight forward spread or open offense with a bruiser or beefy RB group that gashes us, teams like NO and KC. Though KC does some of that.

 

Lets be real about last week; some points in garbage time there. We played much better than the score indicated.

 

 

Edited November 14, 2020 by RichRiderBills

[K-9]

6 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

If they even try it they won't stay in it for more than 2-3 series.

I thought it was gut-bustingly hysterical during the first month of the season watching teams start games in man schemes and then utterly abandon even any pretense of it in the middle of the first qrtr. 

I think Miami set the record for fastest abandonment of man to man coverage after Diggs’s second wide open crosser in the first quarter. And nobody likes man coverage schemes more than Flores so you know it had to hurt to admit that. 

[WideNine]

12 minutes ago, RichRiderBills said:

 

I think we have decent personel for RPO. I like the sideline to sideline quickness here, our second level help, if only we can get the tackling under grips. What worries me is a more straight forward spread or open offense with a bruiser or beefy RB group that gashes us, teams like NO and KC. Though KC does some of that.

 

Lets be real about last week; some points in garbage time there. We played much better than the score indicated.

 

 

 

I hope they are more solid...this team is hard on the ol' ticker.

 

 

[Doc Brown]

30 minutes ago, PUNT750 said:

With our weather forecast for Sunday it wouldn't allow either QB to show their skills!

Afternoon °F   11/15

52°   Real Feel® 37° 

Showers

Wind: SSW at 35 mph

Wind Gusts: 67 mph

Humidity: 68%

We're going to have to learn to embrace the elements eventually.  The top teams in the AFC along with our division all play outside and we're not getting a dome anytime soon.

[Bob Chandler's Hands]

44 minutes ago, PUNT750 said:

With our weather forecast for Sunday it wouldn't allow either QB to show their skills!

Afternoon °F   11/15

52°   Real Feel® 37° 

Showers

Wind: SSW at 35 mph

Wind Gusts: 67 mph

Humidity: 68%

 

This is shocking. I've never heard of such weather in a dome. 

[Mango]

3 hours ago, NewEra said:

The cards play a 3-4.  Phillips and Fotu are DEs.   Their starting NT, Corey Peters is playing.  Their backup DEs are are 290 and 315 LBs.  They traded for Markus golden, so they have him and Reddick to provide pass rush.  While the DL is hampered, (more so with the loss of Chandler Jones), they still have some big bodies to stuff the run.  

Right, and in addition to meeting 2 starting DL, the secondary is weak. I think we should run the ball more than twice in a half for sure. But conceptually, it looks like their D might have a tough time slowing us down, so many not take advantage of it. 

[The Wiz]

51 minutes ago, Bob Chandler's Hands said:

 

This is shocking. I've never heard of such weather in a dome. 

They turned the a/c up to "Buffalo" . 

[WideNine]

4 hours ago, Bob Chandler's Hands said:

 

This is shocking. I've never heard of such weather in a dome. 

 

When your avatar name has "punt" in it too.... 😂 - we've all fumbled a few posts, but you have to appreciate the irony.

 

Edited November 14, 2020 by WideNine

[Rochesterian Bills Fan]

The Playoffs picture is really going to take shape after this weekend and every game is significant, going to be an insane round of football. I'd sever my pinky toe for a quality Bills win this weekend.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

11 hours ago, YattaOkasan said:

Someone said it up thread.  But you let Mckenzie scramble and then barkley through from somewhere else.  Its not a mckenzie or barkley in.  Mckenzie always takes teh shotgun snap and then let Barkley rip.  Its probably a bit weird but I think it would be pretty effective.

 

McKenzie has several videos of him throwing passes (not at Bills practice, looks like a HS field somewhere with palm trees, maybe helping some friends or relatives practice routes), up on his Instagram story at present.

His Insta username is zee_thoven and you have to follow him, it's in his story.   I'm no expert in QB nuances, but looks like he has decent footwork, a nice rotational throwing motion and can throw different routes with anticipation.  He doesn't have a cannon, but neither does Barkley.

 

I don't know how to capture video off Instagram and repost it here for you all to judge

 

Anyway, based on that, I wouldn't assume that Barkley did all the throwing.

 

Like that video clip of Dion Dawkins lining up at WR and juking McKensie out of his shorts to make some neat grabs, it's a reminder that all of these guys in the NFL are incredible athletes who were likely multi-sport standouts in HS and could have played multiple sports at the college level.

 

 

[Warcodered]

38 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I don't know how to capture video off Instagram and repost it here for you all to judge

It's basically the same as twitter go into the post and copy the url.