Week 10: Bills at Cardinals

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

Wasn’t Dodson put on IR right before the Jet game? Wouldn’t he be able to come back this week? Unless they didn’t get that IR designation early enough for the Jet game to count?

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

 

[EmotionallyUnstable]

10 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

I would not have pegged Matt Barkley as the guy...

[MJS]

Just now, EmotionallyUnstable said:

 

I would not have pegged Matt Barkley as the guy...

He throws it, and McKenzie runs around.

[stevewin]

4 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

 

I would not have pegged Matt Barkley as the guy...

I figured McKittrick ran around with Barkley on his shoulders

[EmotionallyUnstable]

4 minutes ago, MJS said:

He throws it, and McKenzie runs around.

 

What kind of authentic look is that?! 

 

"Alright, fellas, try not to be duped here. ... but if #5 is the quarterback, it MIGHT be a pass."

2 minutes ago, stevewin said:

I figured McKittrick ran around with Barkley on his shoulders

 

I like it. 

The Bills defense is due for a big forced fumble on one of the Murray runs. If I'm McD and Fraiser, I am PREACHING to the DL and LBs pursuit. Dude hangs the ball at his hip as he runs.

 

Just looked it up. Actually, I'm quite surprised he's only fumbled 4 times this year, and only lost two of them. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MurrKy00.htm

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

25 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

 

 

 

remember when firsts like this probably used to happen all the time but because data capture access and analysis was so immature no one knew any better? 

25 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Completely unfair to RayRay who has far better hair than Lamar 

Edited November 13, 2020 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[YoloinOhio]

 

[YattaOkasan]

7 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

 

What kind of authentic look is that?! 

 

"Alright, fellas, try not to be duped here. ... but if #5 is the quarterback, it MIGHT be a pass."

 

I like it. 

The Bills defense is due for a big forced fumble on one of the Murray runs. If I'm McD and Fraiser, I am PREACHING to the DL and LBs pursuit. Dude hangs the ball at his hip as he runs.

 

Just looked it up. Actually, I'm quite surprised he's only fumbled 4 times this year, and only lost two of them. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MurrKy00.htm

Someone said it up thread.  But you let Mckenzie scramble and then barkley through from somewhere else.  Its not a mckenzie or barkley in.  Mckenzie always takes teh shotgun snap and then let Barkley rip.  Its probably a bit weird but I think it would be pretty effective.

[EmotionallyUnstable]

2 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Someone said it up thread.  But you let Mckenzie scramble and then barkley through from somewhere else.  Its not a mckenzie or barkley in.  Mckenzie always takes teh shotgun snap and then let Barkley rip.  Its probably a bit weird but I think it would be pretty effective.

 

Got it, thanks. It is weird.

[YattaOkasan]

6 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

 

Got it, thanks. It is weird.

Definitely and its certainly a tip of the cap to Murray since we need to players to imitate him.

[Logic]

1 hour ago, Back2Buff said:

It's crazy how Hyde playing or not playing has zero effect on this defense.  In a cost cutting year next season, see ya.  This year it has become very apparent Poyer is the safety that carries that duo.

I disagree entirely.

 

Hyde is excellent.

[BritBill]

And that completes the full set. Hyde was

the last member of the 2020 squad to be given the TBD kiss of death.

 

Those soon to be 8 wins have been so lucky it’s almost unbelievable. 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

[Process]

This is beautiful. Hopefully Hyde can play but even if he doesn't we are in great shape

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Del'Shawn Phillips out again, a week after being activated from IR and playing seven (7) ST snaps against the SeaSnakes last week

 

So far this year, he's played a total of 14 snaps on ST in 2 games (Week 1 and Week 9). 

 

They must like his potential, and I'll give him and the training staff props that we're like Boarding House Peanut Butter at the LB position so appreciate being aggressive in getting a guy ready to play/a guy really wanting to play and pushing to come back.

 

But at some point it would be surely better to IR him and poach a healthy LB off another team's practice squad.

[YoloinOhio]

1 hour ago, Back2Buff said:

It's crazy how Hyde playing or not playing has zero effect on this defense.  In a cost cutting year next season, see ya.  This year it has become very apparent Poyer is the safety that carries that duo.

How do you come to this conclusion? He’s missed one game and it was against an offense that  had no threat of a passing attack. He will be greatly missed if he’s not out there on Sunday against this type of offense. 

[BillsFan619]

12 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

How do you come to this conclusion? He’s missed one game and it was against an offense that  had no threat of a passing attack. He will be greatly missed if he’s not out there on Sunday against this type of offense. 

Agreed.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

Wasn’t Dodson put on IR right before the Jet game? Wouldn’t he be able to come back this week? Unless they didn’t get that IR designation early enough for the Jet game to count?

 

Yes, Dodson completed 3 games last Sunday and was eligible to come back this week.  Evidently they don't think he's quite ready.

 

I *think* I heard he was working on the sidelines? 

 

2 hours ago, Logic said:

The thing that gives me the most hope for offensive success is that Arizona plays mostly man coverage and doesn’t rush the passer very well.

 

I don't know about their pass rush, but thought I read somewhere they're about a 50/50 man/zone split.

 

2 hours ago, K-9 said:

If AZ plays a predominantly man scheme, they have no chance of stopping this offense. Allen and Co. have shredded any team that’s tried it this year. You can’t turn your back on Allen, it’s that simple. I think AZ plays more of what we’ve seen since the Titans game. 

 

I don't think it's true that they play a predominantly man scheme.  But even in zone, if they don't manage to confuse him or apply pressure, he is learning to stand in and pick them apart.   

[MJS]

2 hours ago, Back2Buff said:

It's crazy how Hyde playing or not playing has zero effect on this defense.  In a cost cutting year next season, see ya.  This year it has become very apparent Poyer is the safety that carries that duo.

If you think that, you are just not understanding how defense works at all.

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Pretty good overview I thought:

 

https://www.buffalobills.com/news/7-things-to-watch-for-in-bills-at-cardinals-week-10

 

 

 

Not liking this

 

OTOH Dean Marlow did well against NE so if Hyde can't go we'll cross our fingers and hope for the best

 

Marlowe is good in run D but a MAJOR liability in coverage. He has nowhere near Hyde's range.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Back2Buff said:

It's crazy how Hyde playing or not playing has zero effect on this defense.  In a cost cutting year next season, see ya.  This year it has become very apparent Poyer is the safety that carries that duo.

 

What's cray-cray is this take.

 

Hyde has missed one (1) game against a team with minimal passing threat in crap weather.  Dean Marlowe did a capable job filling his shoes - for that one game against a team with minimal passing threat in bad weather.

 

From one game against a team with minimal passing threat in bad weather, you conclude that Hyde is not a key contributor to the Bills defense against a smokin' hot dual threat QB playing in a dome?    Sheesh.

 

The NE game, by the way, was the 2nd game Hyde has been out in 4 seasons and like the 4th where he hasn't played >90% of the snaps.  Hyde is tough, tenacious, and smart.

 

And funny - his rejoinder to that fluff piece where Josh suggested Jordan Poyer was the most athletic player on the team is Must See TV:

"You've seen me play, obviously, High School football.........and then if you want to play chess, checkers, cornhole, anything like that...I'm good at that too"  🤣

 

I hope for the best without him if he can't go and I do think Dean Marlowe is a good player, but I'd feel better if he's able to get healthy and play.  If he can't we will miss him for sure.

[YoloinOhio]

6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

What's cray-cray is this take.

 

Hyde has missed one (1) game against a team with minimal passing threat in crap weather.  Dean Marlowe did a capable job filling his shoes - for that one game against a team with minimal passing threat in bad weather.

 

From one game against a team with minimal passing threat in bad weather, you conclude that Hyde is not a key contributor to the Bills defense against a smokin' hot dual threat QB playing in a dome?    Sheesh.

 

The NE game, by the way, was the 2nd game Hyde has been out in 4 seasons and like the 4th where he hasn't played >90% of the snaps.  Hyde is tough, tenacious, and smart.

 

And funny - his rejoinder to that fluff piece where Josh suggested Jordan Poyer was the most athletic player on the team is Must See TV:

"You've seen me play, obviously, High School football.........and then if you want to play chess, checkers, cornhole, anything like that...I'm good at that too"  🤣

 

I hope for the best without him if he can't go and I do think Dean Marlowe is a good player, but I'd feel better if he's able to get healthy and play.  If he can't we will miss him for sure.

Side note, I saw Micah Hyde play HS football! QB1

[wjag]

My gut tells me Micah will be on the field on Sunday.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Side note, I saw Micah Hyde play HS football! QB1

 

Curious, where was this? 

 

I couldn't tell you why, but Micah Hyde, Matt Milano, and Jon Feliciano are top-3 on my list of "Buffalo Bills Players I would most like to meet".

[YoloinOhio]

Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Curious, where was this? 

 

I couldn't tell you why, but Micah Hyde, Matt Milano, and Jon Feliciano are top-3 on my list of "Buffalo Bills Players I would most like to meet".

I saw him play in the Ohio Hs playoffs, he is considered one of the best HS players ever here. He was an amazing HS QB. Toledo area (Fostoria)

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

I saw him play in the Ohio Hs playoffs, he is considered one of the best HS players ever here. He was an amazing HS QB. Toledo area (Fostoria)

 

Cool!  Dual threat?

 

OK, I looked it up.  This is impressive.  Not only dual threat, but northern Ohio first-team honors in all three phases of the game! 

Hyde was born in Fostoria, Ohio, and attended Fostoria High School where he lettered in three sports: baseball, basketball and football.^[1] On the gridiron, he was a team captain during his sophomore, junior, and senior seasons with the team.^[2] As a junior, Hyde earned northern Ohio first-team honors as a quarterback, defensive back, and place kicker.^[3] He was also named honorable mention as a punter. He was additionally named a first team defensive back and quarterback in his senior year.^[4] He also earned first-team all-conference basketball and baseball honors and averaged 22 points a game in basketball during his time there.^[3] During his career, he had 165 tackles, eight interceptions and seven defended passes as a cornerback.^[2] As a quarterback, he had 549 rushing attempts for 3,443 yards and 46 touchdowns and also completed 606 out of 997 passes for 7,864 yards and 65 touchdowns. Hyde broke 17 school records,^[1] including those for touchdown passes in a season and a career.^[3]

Hyde was also a standout baseball player growing up and won a USSSA State Championship in 2003 as a member of the Findlay Explosion, a team that also included Aaron Craft.^{[citation needed]}

 

Is Hyde our "emergency kicker"?

 

 

[Back2Buff]

Can people show me all the passes Micah has defended or INT he has gotten?  I guess I'm missing them.

 

Also, his PFF grades are average at best.  People think this is Micah Hyde of 3 to 4 years ago.

[JGMcD2]

7 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:

Can people show me all the passes Micah has defended or INT he has gotten?  I guess I'm missing them.

 

Also, his PFF grades are average at best.  People think this is Micah Hyde of 3 to 4 years ago.

Yes, because passes defended and INT tell the WHOLE story. 
 

PFF also has an unbelievable formula that isn’t subjective at all... 

 

If you don’t recognize that a player can still have a major impact for a multitude of reasons outside of PFF grades and INT... then well maybe you need a new hobby. 
 

And if you’re going off Hyde’s numbers his best season by far was his first year in Buffalo. 5 INT and 13 PD. Since then he hasn’t come close to that. He was never anywhere close to that in GB. But the details don’t matter, not one bit. 

Edited November 13, 2020 by JGMcD2

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:

Can people show me all the passes Micah has defended or INT he has gotten?  I guess I'm missing them.

Also, his PFF grades are average at best.  People think this is Micah Hyde of 3 to 4 years ago.

 

Bless your little heart, now you're changing the subject!  This isn't about how many passes Hyde is crediting with defending or what is PFF grade is (you can start by explaining to me why I care, on that last).

 

This is about your silly claim that "It's crazy how Hyde playing or not playing has zero effect on this defense."  The fact is, neither you nor anyone else has a clue whether Hyde not playing  has zero effect on this defense, because except for 1 game in crap weather against a team with minimal passing threat, he's played nearly every defensive snap this season. 

 

You aren't defending that claim, because you can't, so now you want us to put work in to "prove you wrong".  That's not how it works.  You made the claim, you back it up.

 

You can start by explaining the role of an NFL free safety.  Go!

 

 

4 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

PFF also has an unbelievable formula that isn’t subjective at all... 

 

That's....sarcasm, isn't it? 

 

Phew, thought so.

 

 

[Back2Buff]

2 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Yes, because passes defended and INT tell the WHOLE story. 
 

PFF also has an unbelievable formula that isn’t subjective at all... 

 

If you don’t recognize that a player can still have a major impact for a multitude of reasons outside of PFF grades and INT... then well maybe you need a new hobby. 

 

I'm confused at what stat I should go off?  Should I go off our defensive passing rating?

 

The DVOA for passing is 17th in league.  Please tell me what I should use to show Hyde makes a large impact of this team.

[JGMcD2]

2 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:

 

I'm confused at what stat I should go off?  Should I go off our defensive passing rating?

 

The DVOA for passing is 17th in league.  Please tell me what I should use to show Hyde makes a large impact of this team.

That’s the whole point. Thank you for summing it up for me. You don’t just look at a stat and it magically tells you exactly what’s going on and the impact of a player. That just simply doesn’t exist and absolutely never will... 
 

You have no idea where to actually look and what the responsibilities of a safety in this defense are. I’m going to bargain that’s more important than the counting statistics like PD and INT.. and when I say I’m gonna bargain I mean this is my line of work and you have absolutely zero idea what you’re typing. 

[NewEra]

Did Dean Marlowe really play that good vs the pats?  The hit on Harris was textbook.  He had 6 tackles altogether and got completely schooled my Damian Harris on his long td.  He was the last line of defense ended up on his face. I remember watching him take bad angles on more than a couple runs.  
 

we may not change the scheme at all when Hyde is out there but Marlowe is no where near the cover man Hyde is.  He’s a bigger hitter, but also a bigger liability vs the run imo. Hyde is one of the most reliable players you’ll find.  He may not have huge numbers, but he’s rarely taken to the woodshed

7 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:

 

I'm confused at what stat I should go off?  Should I go off our defensive passing rating?

 

The DVOA for passing is 17th in league.  Please tell me what I should use to show Hyde makes a large impact of this team.

How about tape?   Look at the tape.  That’s what you SHOULD do

[YoloinOhio]

 

[EmotionallyUnstable]

Holy crikey...Matt Barkley is just not what you'd think of a football player lol that video is hilarious.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:

I'm confused at what stat I should go off?  Should I go off our defensive passing rating?

 

Maybe go off your Mark I eyeballs looking at the game? 

 

3 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:

The DVOA for passing is 17th in league.  Please tell me what I should use to show Hyde makes a large impact of this team.

 

Ah, yes, Football Outsiders - Aaron Schatz outfit that pre-draft called Allen "A parody of an NFL quarterback prospect..... We don’t want to say there’s absolutely no chance he’ll ever be good.....but there is zero empirical evidence to support him becoming a reasonable NFL starting quarterback.  ... Allen is the battleground that old scouts are going to die on, whether they’re right about it or, as all evidence suggests, wrong about it."
 

and last year doubled down: "“I’m just not a Josh Allen believer. I do not think there is an NFL starting quarterback in there waiting to come out and develop. And if I’m wrong then, you know, they’ve done a lot to give him help, but if I’m right then they’re still in trouble.”

 

The bottom line is, these types of analytics have two types of fans: those who embrace them, and those who are stone-cold skeptics across the board.  Count me in the latter group.

 

There are positions in Football that McDermott refers to as "unselfish positions" because when they're done according to their assignment, they don't rack up much in the way of simplified stats, and they're problematic for modern analytics (the sort that use subjective eyeball grading to generate objective-looking numbers) because the grader doesn't know the assignment.  You really only notice them when quality play isn't there.  OL, interior DL, and FS are among those positions.

 

 

Still waiting for you to acknowledge that your take "It's crazy how Hyde playing or not playing has zero effect on this defense" can possibly be supported when we just haven't seen the Bills play without Hyde very much (and I'm hoping that doesn't change this weekend, assuming he's healthy enough).....

 

 

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I hear ya.  To be fair,  'Zona did win over Seattle - albeit in overtime by 3 points.

 

On paper, Arizona has a more legit defense than Seattle, especially against the pass.  On the other hand...their more legit defense didn't manage to slow the SeaSnakes down any better than we did - same points scored, except we were ahead all game.  Arizona gave up about the same passing yards and 4x more rush yards to Seattle. 

 

I don't really know too much about Arizona's defense, honestly.   The thing that sticks out from stat-gazing is that there's a huge discrepancy in their rank on yards given up, vs on points given up.  They're #8 on points but #19 on yards.  That discrepancy usually means something.  They are getting turnovers - 10 take-aways - but they're also giving the ball up with 10 giveaways.

 

They're clearly a better fundamental defense than Seattle against the pass, but not so good against the run (in theory).  Seattle is #4 in rush YPG given up.  Arizona is #22 - right after us.  It's going to be interesting to see what kind of game plan we come out with, and whether or not this week's announcers have figured out that Daboll right now seems bound and determined to keep our offense from being pigeonholed.

Good post/points made. I actually think Seattle's front seven is better than Arizona's, but the Cardinals secondary is so much better than Seattle's that their overall defense is superior. As you said, the Cardinals can be vulnerable to the run and although their stats vs the pass look pretty good, I doubt they've faced many trios better than Diggs/Brown/Beasley. 

 

To add to your opening statement, I think it's important to remember that Arizona beat Seattle - albeit in overtime by 3 points - without having to deal with Carlos Dunlap or Jamal Adams. Kyler had all the time in the world to throw or scramble in that game and I think Seattle wins if they have those two impact players available.

[EmotionallyUnstable]

Del'Shawn Phillips to the IR per Bills Text

 

Darren Lee promotion in the near future?

Edited November 13, 2020 by EmotionallyUnstable
spelling

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Good info.  Which 3 games did you see, if you don't mind my asking?  I'm really trying to get to grips with the Cardinals as a team.

If I could be so bold, I did a bit of scouting on the Cardinals last three games in a thread I started a couple days ago. I don't know how to link other posts here, but it's called Scouting The Arizona Cardinals. Hope it helps.