LSHMEAB Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 6 minutes ago, MJS said: Obviously they are making educated guesses, but those guesses aren't based on how they view teams will perform, they are based on how they believe fans will bet. The general fan will not have a good opinion of the Bills, even though the Bills, for those who follow the team, appear to have gotten better and signs point to more than 6 wins. This is different than last year. Most who followed the Bills expected a down year last season. 6 wins was spot on. There are people betting tens of thousands of dollars and it's more than an educated guess. It's based on data and metrics. A lot of the big bettors don't even care much about sports. They care about numbers. That being said, it certainly does NOT mean the Bills plan will fail. We could easily win 10 games. I'm strictly talking about the way these numbers are set. Not the outcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsherd Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 5 hours ago, LSHMEAB said: Someone you know will probably go to Vegas at some point before the season. Give them the cash and tell them what to bet. You get a ticket that you have x amount of time to cash in person or you can mail it in and receive a check(assuming it wins). If you are out of state or out of country do they tax you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSHMEAB Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 13 minutes ago, billsherd said: If you are out of state or out of country do they tax you? Nah. They only tax winnings on wagers that are greater than 300/1 odds. Kind of quirky. They will TRACK anything over 10K, but not tax it. Let's say you win 330 bucks on a 1 dollar bet. Taxed and W2G. Let's say you bet 10K and win 10K. Nada. They'll do what's called a CTR on anything over 10K, but no tax. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HOUSE Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 3 hours ago, 2018 Our Year For Sure said: How does it work? Honest question. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Protocal69 Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 6 hours ago, Pete said: Massachusetts now has sports betting. Last I seen- Vegas had the odds of Buffalo winning SB 100-1 and AFC 65-1. I am not sure what Mass offers. But I would like to get in on those odds before the draft. 6 wins over is a gift! We play Miami twice And the Giants once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 15 minutes ago, ScottLaw said: ? those assumptions are usually right. Can you tell us how often the Bills were under on wins? I'd love to know. Is it every year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JESSEFEFFER Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 UB had 6.5 for over/under last year and I was convinced that was way too low. I do not gamble because I really can't afford to lose but I'd feel similarly about this prospect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fr. Jerk Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, LEBills said: Hammer the over, we got 6 wins with Peterman, Anderson and Barkley starting 4 games last year lol. When you think of how bad they botched the QB situation and the fact that a player literally quit the team at halftime its kinda amazing they got 6 wins. Edited April 1, 2019 by The Jerk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 If y’all are looking for action feel free to follow the link and get your boy a referral bonus: https://www.bovada.lv/welcome/P4614C95/join?extcmpid=rafcopy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klos63 Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 3 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said: Sorry. I feel Vegas under-predicts by the Bills by 2 games. Probably because non-Bills followers assume we suck. I would bet money on the over if they are saying 4 wins. We got six with what roster? I always waste money on the Bills when I go to Vegas, so I'll put something on the over this year. I would expect improvement over last season. The non Bills followers have been correct more often than not. Although we haven't made it too difficult for them. Better days are ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExWNYer Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 7 hours ago, Virgil said: I mean, if they double dared you; what choice do you have? The smart money says to hold off until they triple dog dare you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Brown Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 Split the Jets, beat Miami twice, Broncos, Redskins, Bengals, and @Giants. There's your seven wins. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LABILLBACKER Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 8 hours ago, NewEra said: Perfect!!! Not sure why you guys complain about this. Take advantage of it and make some money Really, profit on their stupidity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kwai San Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 I had a neighbor who seemed to be in Vegas every year in time to place a bet on the Bills winning the SB. There is a reason they don't win and it is all his fault. He goes to EVERY home game and a few away games. He is a lovable certifiable nut. In short - a Bills fan. God bless him. I say STAY away from the bet.....ya just never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aussie Joe Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 I would put my left nut on them wining more than six games this year... Even Barkley could probably do it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niagara Dude Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 17 hours ago, DBilz2500 said: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/26405507/browns-see-projected-win-total-jump-3-games Bills at 6? Really? What a joke... Maybe because they see that Bills signed a bunch of mediocre guys, talent wins and Beane wasted money . This looks so much like the year Levy went and spent money on average players and it blew up in his face. I would have preferred that they spend for top playmakers. I myself could see them winning around 8 games 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nextmanup Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 18 hours ago, LSHMEAB said: Rather than get angry, why not just get a bet down? Because if he bet where his heart is as a Bills fan, he'd be broke in 10 minutes. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeelingOnYouboty Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 13 hours ago, The Jerk said: When you think of how bad they botched the QB situation and the fact that a player literally quit the team at halftime its kinda amazing they got 6 wins. The Josh Allen effect 2016 at Wyoming 8 wins 4 losses by 3 points 2017 at Wyoming 8 wins in 11 games Kid's a winner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wppete Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 1 hour ago, FeelingOnYouboty said: The Josh Allen effect 2016 at Wyoming 8 wins 4 losses by 3 points 2017 at Wyoming 8 wins in 11 games Kid's a winner good reason to have optimism still has to be proven on the field the NFL doesn't reward whim wishes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 16 hours ago, Protocal69 said: And the Giants once Jests twice, fish twice, Redskins and Giants. That should be at least 4 wins right there. Bengals at home too. I like the over, but the bet is really a referendum on Josh Allen. If you think he’s good, the over is a very tempting bet, but if you don’t.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacGyver Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 23 hours ago, DBilz2500 said: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/26405507/browns-see-projected-win-total-jump-3-games Bills at 6? Really? What a joke... I think fans had the same reaction last year. Until the Bills prove otherwise, 6-10 is a good bet for this team. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
badassgixxer05 Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 When has the Bills over under not been right around 6 games the last 20 years? Makes sense to me. Lets give Vegas the big middle and win the division! ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeMaxB585 Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 On 3/31/2019 at 1:30 PM, DBilz2500 said: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/26405507/browns-see-projected-win-total-jump-3-games Bills at 6? Really? What a joke... Vegas is usually spot on. we have to be realistic we will win between 4 and 7. Last year ours was 5.5 and people thought Vegas was nuts because we just made playoffs. fact is we didnt add much on fofense, have old rb's a terrible line and as far as wr's and TE's we are in the bottom 5 for weapons for allen. Defense is solid but dont even have multiple pro bowl/all pros like other teams have 16 minutes ago, MacGyver said: I think fans had the same reaction last year. Until the Bills prove otherwise, 6-10 is a good bet for this team. made playoffs year prior and then vegas put us at 5.5 and people thought vegas was nuts, they are always very spot on for the most part, do it for a living and were right on the money last year 3 hours ago, FeelingOnYouboty said: The Josh Allen effect 2016 at Wyoming 8 wins 4 losses by 3 points 2017 at Wyoming 8 wins in 11 games Kid's a winner I like Allen but for one they played crap teams and winning in college means literally nothing. Matt Leinart, Brady Quinn Jamesis Winston, etc were all winners in college to more so then Allen. That said Allen will be great, we just really need to surround him with players in the draft, for weapons we are in the bottom 5 of the league especially at TE and RB 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeMaxB585 Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 23 hours ago, Tcali said: All depends on Josh Allen.If he sucks we win 6.If he is great we win 10. I think it will be a given Allen will be solid. it will come down to our suspect offensive line and lack of running game and not the best weapons around him. draft is essential 21 hours ago, nrenegar said: Does anyone know what sites this bet is available on? I checked Bovada, but they seem to just have superbowl futures right now. 5dimes has it up 19 hours ago, LEBills said: Hammer the over, we got 6 wins with Peterman, Anderson and Barkley starting 4 games last year lol. yea and it came down to the last game of the season vs a dolphins team with nothing to play for. our schedule is a lot harder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chandler#81 Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 17 hours ago, Nextmanup said: Because if he bet where his heart is as a Bills fan, he'd be broke in 10 minutes. Which is why I don’t bet. Although..... the last time i bet Large ($500) was in ‘88, following the 7-8, Strike shortened season, that the Bills would be in the playoffs. I sweated it for 7 months. Bills beat Jets in OT to go to 11-1 and win the AFCE! I’m kind of feeling the same way with this offer. Maybe a hunny.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEBills Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 2 hours ago, FreeMaxB585 said: I think it will be a given Allen will be solid. it will come down to our suspect offensive line and lack of running game and not the best weapons around him. draft is essential 5dimes has it up yea and it came down to the last game of the season vs a dolphins team with nothing to play for. our schedule is a lot harder I’m not sure the dolphins are even fielding a team this year so I think we be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tcali Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 3 hours ago, FreeMaxB585 said: I think it will be a given Allen will be solid. it will come down to our suspect offensive line and lack of running game and not the best weapons around him. draft is essential 5dimes has it up yea and it came down to the last game of the season vs a dolphins team with nothing to play for. our schedule is a lot harder I dont think thats a given at all. Judgment and accuracy arent minor fixes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niagara Dude Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 (edited) 8 hours ago, ScottLaw said: Don't disagree. Outside of Morse the guys they signed are pretty average at their respective positions. The team lacks star players as it stands right now. Yes, Morse was only above average signing. Now if you have a team with 2-3 stars then that is fine, right now this team has no stars. Fans are drinking the koolaid, i saw this with Levy. Edited April 2, 2019 by Niagara Dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeelingOnYouboty Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 18 hours ago, FreeMaxB585 said: Vegas is usually spot on. we have to be realistic we will win between 4 and 7. Last year ours was 5.5 and people thought Vegas was nuts because we just made playoffs. fact is we didnt add much on fofense, have old rb's a terrible line and as far as wr's and TE's we are in the bottom 5 for weapons for allen. Defense is solid but dont even have multiple pro bowl/all pros like other teams have made playoffs year prior and then vegas put us at 5.5 and people thought vegas was nuts, they are always very spot on for the most part, do it for a living and were right on the money last year I like Allen but for one they played crap teams and winning in college means literally nothing. Matt Leinart, Brady Quinn Jamesis Winston, etc were all winners in college to more so then Allen. That said Allen will be great, we just really need to surround him with players in the draft, for weapons we are in the bottom 5 of the league especially at TE and RB All of those guys played at blue blood programs. I think it's overrated too for the most part except in these instances. Allen was surrounded with nothing and turned his program into a winning one the two years he played. Look at Wyoming's record before he got there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 On 3/31/2019 at 1:30 PM, DBilz2500 said: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/26405507/browns-see-projected-win-total-jump-3-games Bills at 6? Really? What a joke... Bet the Over, But really think about this, what have they really done this offseason to have vegas break the long standing tradition of AVG here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthNYfan Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 3 hours ago, ScottLaw said: A lot rides on Allen. Still think they need to help him out at reciever more, but if he is successful the team in all likelihood will be as well. This. People get too caught up in deciding that he's tribe, or that he's the best thing since sliced bread. There's a lot in between there. If he becomes an above average QB then they are a 8-10 win roster right now I believe. If he becomes a second year stud (like Goff or wentz did) then they are 10-12 wins I believe. If he's barely average this season then they are probably 6-8. If he sucks then they're a dumpster fire. Either way this isn't a make or break year for him as a career, but it would be very encouraging for him to build on the end of last season and how well he played. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeGOATski Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 Like I'm sure others have stated here, Vegas odds are a good indicator of where the team stands. The moves don't matter much. It all comes down to coaching and QB play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Call_Of_Ktulu Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 This is a easy 500$ bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 1 hour ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said: This is a easy 500$ bet It's the Bills, they'll start off 4-1, then Allen will be put out for the year and will finish 5-11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeMaxB585 Posted April 3, 2019 Share Posted April 3, 2019 On 4/2/2019 at 7:56 AM, FeelingOnYouboty said: All of those guys played at blue blood programs. I think it's overrated too for the most part except in these instances. Allen was surrounded with nothing and turned his program into a winning one the two years he played. Look at Wyoming's record before he got there. There is plenty of guys who do that tho lol. Look at Paxston Lynch, Blake Bortles, Blaine Gabbert,Brock Owsweiller etc. Im just saying winning at college on any level literally meanings nothing. Its not as if he led them to any upsets at all. and I love allen just making the point in this specific topic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aristocrat Posted April 3, 2019 Share Posted April 3, 2019 im putting the kids college money on the over. lets go 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2020 Our Year For Sure Posted April 7, 2019 Share Posted April 7, 2019 Bills have moved up to 6.5 everywhere I've seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted April 7, 2019 Share Posted April 7, 2019 7 minutes ago, 2018 Our Year For Sure said: Bills have moved up to 6.5 everywhere I've seen I’d expect that to keep climbing a bit, but I’m biased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted April 7, 2019 Share Posted April 7, 2019 On 3/31/2019 at 3:51 PM, PromoTheRobot said: Sorry. I feel Vegas under-predicts by the Bills by 2 games. Probably because non-Bills followers assume we suck. I would bet money on the over if they are saying 4 wins. We got six with what roster? You mean how they set the over-under at 6 wins last year, and then they won ... 6 games? https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2018-nfl-win-totals-predictions-vegas-expert-picks-over-6-for-arizona-cardinals/ Sure, the Vegas preseason line was off by a couple games in 2017, but there's nothing that suggests some kind of systematic underrating of the Bills. And as everyone who understands Vegas lines has already mentioned, the over-under isn't so much a "prediction" as it's an attempt to set a number that will generate 50% of the betting on either side. My simple formula is always this: take last year's record, regress it 50% toward the mean (8 wins) ... there's your projection. For the Bills, that would be 7-9. I did a kind of quick and dirty test of this a few seasons ago, and I found it more accurate than any betting lines or "expert" predictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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