Has Josh Allen reached his ceiling?

[AZSanta]

I have been an Allen supporter since he was drafted. I felt he was a perfect fit for the city. He is in year 6 of his career and has put up fairly consistent stats the last 3 years. Have we seen his best football or can he be better? By better I mean 5000+ passing yards and 50+ total tds. I personally believe he has hit his ceiling. I think he is what he is and I think we can win a Super Bowl with him playing at this level. I am just curios what others opinions are as to what they expect from him the rest of his career.

[SMAKCruiser]

Yes

[Malazan]

Yes

[BuffaloButt]

MVP level, YES!

[Since1981]

Yes, mostly.
 

but give him a speedy WR2 and it highlights his very particular capability advantage of raw arm strength. 

[Augie]

We should sell high. Very high. 

[BullBuchanan]

I think so, and I'd say almost certainly if this coaching staff sticks around. We've seen him play a couple of perfect games and we've also seen multi-week stretches of him being really bad to the point of being the reason we lose games. That inconsistency of scorching hot to ice cold is what defines Josh Allen as a player. I had hoped that the staff was coaching him to maybe not burn as hot but also never be cooler than "warm".

Unfortunately, I don't think he's capable of it, and I chalk it up to football IQ. I don't think he processes the game well enough in real time to be able to go through progressions or effectively hot route to pick apart a defense. Instead, we're going to have to live with the Hollywood version where he holds the ball for 5 seconds and has to stiff arm Maxx Crosby, hurdle Kevin Byard or drop a 65 yard pass on a dime to a double covered receiver in order to win big games. That reliance on high variance play has and will continue to be the main reason he doesn't win Super Bowls. He can do all the hard things that no one else can do, but he can do shockingly few of the things even backup QBs can do.

If the stars align just right, or he gets an OC that can channel his limitations and exploit his strengths, he has the talent to win it all, but I don't see him leading a dynasty and I don't see him being an elite QB in his mid-late 30s as his athleticism fades.

[PatsFanNH]

Omg I am not even a Bills fan but GOD NO! He is still young and just entered his prime and he IMO doesn’t have an elite O around him. You give him 2 good WR, a good TE and he could break records. 
 

Now if you want championships, he needs a consistent Defense, a defense that can bail him out when he is just having a bad game. 

[Buffalo Super Fan]

I don’t have enough information to know if Josh Allen reached his ceiling? Because I don’t know what kind of possible shoulder injury Josh Allen is playing with only Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills know that so I have no idea in my opinion. Go Bills! Let’s Go Buffalo 

[Buffalo03]

I think he can hit 5000 passing yards eventually but 50 TDs might be a stretch. How much more do you want from him? Lol

[PatsFanNH]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo Super Fan said:

I don’t have enough information to know if Josh Allen reached his ceiling? Because I don’t know what kind of possible shoulder injury Josh Allen is playing with only Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills know that so I have no idea in my opinion. Go Bills! Let’s Go Buffalo 

Well if he isn’t on the injury report for a shoulder injury the bills will get into a lot of trouble.. lol I kid.. but the great ones learn to continue begin elite even when hurt. For example look at how Mahomes adapted when he hurt his ankle a couple years back. 

[GETTOTHE50]

Not yet. Still can work on his pocket presence and getting rid of the ball a little quicker, which comes with understanding what the defense gives you and a good play caller. 
 

You could argue he has hit a plateau at this current time, but don’t get that mistaken as his ceiling 

[Nephilim17]

At his best he reads the field well, is decisive, has a cannon for an arm and solid accuracy, and is an all-time great running threat.

 

At his worst, he makes poor decisions and his accuracy leaves something to be desired, especially for WRs on the move.

 

Best-case Josh Allen is a first-ballot Hall of Famer. I hope he does (and the teams does) whatever is needed for him to be consistently at his best. We don't need Josh to be better than the best Josh we've seen; we need him to be that Josh more often.

 

[billsbackto81]

With what he's dealt with as far as talent around him, I'll say yes.

 

Give him a bona-fide #2 WR, an offensive minded coach and a D that can put the clamps on an opposing team on their final drive in a one score game and he'll be a perennial MVP. 

[poblano]

NO

 

 

 

He will reach it at some point?

 

I  wish

Edited November 23, 2023 by poblano

[1ManRaid]

28 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

Omg I am not even a Bills fan but GOD NO! He is still young and just entered his prime and he IMO doesn’t have an elite O around him. You give him 2 good WR, a good TE and he could break records. 
 

Now if you want championships, he needs a consistent Defense, a defense that can bail him out when he is just having a bad game. 

 

2 good WR and a good TE?  You mean like Diggs, Shakir, and Kincaid/Knox?  What he needed was a new OC, so watch him go off.

[BuffaloBillyG]

Yes. And no.

 

I think THIS version of Allen has reached it's max level. And it's a VERY high level. Championship caliber, even.

 

But there are more versions to come that come with age and maturity that he can evolve into. When I think of past QBs, guys like Brady, Elway, Big Ben and even Peyton Manning...they moved to a more cerebral QB later in their career and were highly successful. Josh can reach that as well. Won't be as physically gifted, but will have the smarta to adjust and tweek his style enough to be a success. I see that before I see him becoming a Cam Newton that just drops off a cliff talent wise and cannot throw the ball anymore.

[Don Otreply]

12 hours ago, Augie said:

We should sell high. Very high. 

We could trade him for a teams next ten first second third and forth picks 

 

anyone game for this? 
 

GO BILLS!!!

 

(sarcasm involved)

Edited November 23, 2023 by Don Otreply

[billsfanmiamioh]

Simple answer, yes. But that is plenty good enough to win it all, and I don’t think that will change for a decade. 
 

This may be the booze talking but I think I’ve come to the realization that he’s not bringing home a ton of hardware, like we may have thought 2-3 years ago. 
 

Obviously nobody will be Brady but I’m thinking Josh ends up with more of a Favre / Rodgers / Big Ben type career because of his roller coaster play. 
 

Sign me up for that every day of the week but unless something drastically changes I don’t see the consistency needed to get a bunch of rings. At this point, I think Mahomes might be the only one that has this. 
 

I think we might see a run of 7-8 different Super Bowl wining QBs in the next decade. Hope 17 hits my prediction and also proves me wrong…😏

[Fan in Chicago]

1 hour ago, AZSanta said:

I have been an Allen supporter since he was drafted. I felt he was a perfect fit for the city. He is in year 6 of his career and has put up fairly consistent stats the last 3 years. Have we seen his best football or can he be better? By better I mean 5000+ passing yards and 50+ total tds. I personally believe he has hit his ceiling. I think he is what he is and I think we can win a Super Bowl with him playing at this level. I am just curios what others opinions are as to what they expect from him the rest of his career.

What do you have to support your contention besides your own belief? This is a strange post. 

51 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

Omg I am not even a Bills fan but GOD NO! He is still young and just entered his prime and he IMO doesn’t have an elite O around him. You give him 2 good WR, a good TE and he could break records. 
. 

Yep. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

His ceiling is 6,000 total yards and 60 TD's in the new 17 game season. So no, he has not reached his ceiling. Will he reach it? Not sure, but it will be something to behold if he does. 

[NoHuddleKelly12]

Nope! But who the OC is clearly matters a lot to this question…

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

47 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said:

I think he can hit 5000 passing yards eventually but 50 TDs might be a stretch. How much more do you want from him? Lol

 

Really? I would think 5,000 passing yards is a bigger stretch than 50 TD's. He's on pace for his 4th straight 40+ TD season. If anyone playing football today can put up 50+ TD's in a season it would be him. 

[Marcus Aurelius]

I'm gonna hit the ceiling if I keep reading this sh't

[LABILLBACKER]

No.....

 

Hopefully with Brady's offensive concepts and a dynamic WR2, Josh will reach one final level.  He's been averaging 43 total tds these last 3 seasons.  He's on pace for another 45 tds this year.  So he's done all this with basically an inconsistent run game and no true WR2.  So yes he's capable of a 50 td season.  As long as he can cut way down on turnovers which loses him possessions. The ball is in Beane's court. 

[ToGoGo]

Stupidity thread. 

[gobills404]

Yes. We’ve seen him at his ceiling many times now, which is the best player in the NFL. Unfortunately we also see him at his floor too often. It’s all about consistency now.

[Dr.Sack]

His ceiling puts him in top tier QB in NFL category. The only knock is regular season turnovers. The question isn’t so much has he reached his ceiling? Rather how committed is he to maintaining his level of play?

[BillStime]

[Maynard]

[Buffalo Ballin]

LOL...

 

No. He has way too many physical gifts. As long as he stays healthy and no longer agrees to be on the Madden Cover.

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, PatsFanNH said:

Omg I am not even a Bills fan but GOD NO! He is still young and just entered his prime and he IMO doesn’t have an elite O around him. You give him 2 good WR, a good TE and he could break records. 

 

Not too mention coaching.

 

It's far from evident that he's been properly much less optimally coached.

 

 

[Low Positive]

physically yes. But he could get better at reading defenses.

[Goin Breakdown]

Some people are saying this thread is stupid. We can go back to the trade Josh Allen thread of a couple weeks ago. 

[Breakout Squad]

2 hours ago, AZSanta said:

I have been an Allen supporter since he was drafted. I felt he was a perfect fit for the city. He is in year 6 of his career and has put up fairly consistent stats the last 3 years. Have we seen his best football or can he be better? By better I mean 5000+ passing yards and 50+ total tds. I personally believe he has hit his ceiling. I think he is what he is and I think we can win a Super Bowl with him playing at this level. I am just curios what others opinions are as to what they expect from him the rest of his career.

No. No. F*** no!  I believe you get your arse kicked for saying that. 😎

26 minutes ago, Buffalo Ballin said:

LOL...

 

No. He has way too many physical gifts. As long as he stays healthy and no longer agrees to be on the Madden Cover.

Not a Madden curse. It’s a Brittany curse. 

[pennstate10]

2 hours ago, AZSanta said:

I have been an Allen supporter since he was drafted. I felt he was a perfect fit for the city. He is in year 6 of his career and has put up fairly consistent stats the last 3 years. Have we seen his best football or can he be better? By better I mean 5000+ passing yards and 50+ total tds. I personally believe he has hit his ceiling. I think he is what he is and I think we can win a Super Bowl with him playing at this level. I am just curios what others opinions are as to what they expect from him the rest of his career.

H3LL NO!!

 

There are at least 3 avenues that can lead to much higher level performance.

 

1)  Better offensive coaching.  To be clear, Allen hasnt worked with an offensive "savant".  A Reid, Shanahan, McVay, or Bellichek.

2)  Get his mind straight.  Not sure whats been going on, on the field or off the field.  But that 1000 mile stare tells me something isnt optimal.

3)  Better offensive talent.  Bradshaw had Swann and Stallworth.  Marino had Duper and Clayton.  Aikman had Irvin and whatshisname.  Mahomes had Hill and Kelce.  You get the picture.  Allen has Diggs, who is very good, and a bunch of maybes.

 

Allen is, without doubt, the most talented Bills QB in history.  I've seen them all.  Kemp, Lamonica, Ferguson, Kelly, Billy Joe, Flutie.  Allen has skills that none of those dudes had.  

 

Its up to Allen and Bills staff to get the most out of his skills.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

Think about what we’ve seen in the history of the game and then think what we’ve from Allen in TD output in 2020-2023.

 

2020 he was 37 TDs passing, 8 TDs rushing. 

2021 he was 36 TDs passing, 6 TDs rushing. 

2022 he was 35 TDs passing, 7 TDs rushing.

 

In the history of the league, what QB has thrown for 40 TDs year after year? That’s a hard bar to clear in itself.

 

Isolated years Brady goes for 50, Mahomes goes for 50, Manning went for 55, Marino went for 48, Brees 46 and 43 in back to back year, Favre’s best was 38 & 39.

 

So with that historical context, I’d say it’s likely Allen is not going to get much more than 35-37 TDs, with one caveat.

 

We know he doesn’t go all out on film or physical conditioning, especially in the off-season. That’s the one door he can try to open, getting into the best shape of his life, working mechanics constantly with Palmer, studying film. 
 

If he commits to more work, he might be able to squeeze another 1/2 level out and get over 40 TDs passing in a single year. 
 

Diggs is 30, so could/will the Bills commit to getting Allen another top-flight WR before Diggs ages out? I guess that’s a second lever. 
 

Edited November 23, 2023 by Straight Hucklebuck

[Alphadawg7]

No he has not reached his ceiling.

[NickelCity]

Is this the same fan base that lived through the drought? Who are you guys lol?

 

Josh is the dude. 

[GoBills808]

I cannot wait to bump this thread in a couple years