Has Josh Allen reached his ceiling?

[GoBills808]

Just now, AZSanta said:

No offense taken. I certainly there is potential for him to be better. My main concern with him is his maturity level and mental ability to deal with adversity. He seems to take negative games to heart and maybe feels the pressure of the fans and media bashing his turnovers. You can see it in his demeanor when they lose and his post game press conference. I hope he can grow into a more mature QB with age and experience. He needs a mentor. McDermott aint doing him any favors with his coaching style

I think he just needs better skill players on offense and consistently average oline play. That and a decent run threat will pay dividends

 

imo the mindset/emotional aspect is overblown. You can read into a million things differently and come to conclusions

[AZSanta]

2 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

Newbie thread quality has reached its basement 

Sorry you dont like my post. It seems to be well received by the more mature members of the group.

[GoBills808]

@GunnerBilldont just throw those disagree emojis around, jump on in lol

 

i mean we got Allen's peaked/he drinks too much/doesn't put in the work in the offseason/can't control his emotions...something for everyone😂

[AZSanta]

5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I think he just needs better skill players on offense and consistently average oline play. That and a decent run threat will pay dividends

 

imo the mindset/emotional aspect is overblown. You can read into a million things differently and come to conclusions

I heard somewhere that the Bills O-line ranks first in the NFL in pass protection. 

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, AZSanta said:

I heard somewhere that the Bills O-line ranks first in the NFL in pass protection. 

Not sure where that was...I would not personally put our oline in the top5

Eagles, Chiefs, Ravens, Lions,  Vikings to me are pry clearly the top units in pass pro

[AZSanta]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

Not sure where that was...I would not personally put our oline in the top5

Eagles, Chiefs, Ravens, Lions,  Vikings to me are pry clearly the top units in pass pro

I think it was on WGR. Extra point show with Sal Cappacio

[Mikie2times]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

@GunnerBilldont just throw those disagree emojis around, jump on in lol

 

i mean we got Allen's peaked/he drinks too much/doesn't put in the work in the offseason/can't control his emotions...something for everyone😂

You actually are a pretty good poster and Allen has a lot of BS said about him. But you just have too much bias the other way. Even posters saying he is elite but not at his best this year makes you go off on some EPA tangent or rant about the offensive line or the WR's.

 

Below is what you feel we should say Josh is at his best.  8 out 11 games this year that is what his stat profile looks like. I'm very optimistic with what we saw last week. He is still one of the best, but your opinion loses validity if you can't view things both ways. 

 

 

[Just in Atlanta]

If he cuts down the ints in half he’s the best qb in the nfl, even better than Mahomes, which is a tall order. I think he has a lot still to learn too.

 

We haven’t seen his best consistently yet so no … the best is yet to come.

[GoBills808]

9 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

You actually are a pretty good poster and Allen has a lot of BS said about him. But you just have too much bias the other way. Even posters saying he is elite but not at his best this year makes you go off on some EPA tangent or rant about the offensive line or the WR's.

 

Below is what you feel we should say Josh is at his best.  8 out 11 games this year that is what his stat profile looks like. I'm very optimistic with what we saw last week. He is still one of the best, but your opinion loses validity if you can't view things both ways. 

 

 

Those stats aren't correct

 

He has 4INTs vs jets

[Mikie2times]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Those stats aren't correct

 

He has 4INTs vs jets

 

His second game is in the three game sample and his first game is on the other. They're correct. 

 

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Mikie2times said:

 

His second game is in the three game sample and his first game is on the other. They're correct. 

 

👍I thought jets(2) meant both

 

But to answer the overall point no, I don't believe that profile is anything overly concerning

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

11 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

You actually are a pretty good poster and Allen has a lot of BS said about him. But you just have too much bias the other way. Even posters saying he is elite but not at his best this year makes you go off on some EPA tangent or rant about the offensive line or the WR's.

 

Below is what you feel we should say Josh is at his best.  8 out 11 games this year that is what his stat profile looks like. I'm very optimistic with what we saw last week. He is still one of the best, but your opinion loses validity if you can't view things both ways. 

 

 

 

Is that all that different from most QB's though? Especially this year it seems QB's have great games followed up with below average games. There's a reason why there isn't a single QB this year running away with MVP. Every week people are trying to justify giving the award to Hurts who has struggled this year but is on a great team. Or Mahomes who certainly does not have better numbers than Allen this year either.  

 

It's certainly not realistic for Allen to have 30 passing TD's and 3 INT's on the season. Just as it is not realistic to say he'll never have great games so throw those three out and just look at his other 8. 

9 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Those stats aren't correct

 

He has 4INTs vs jets

 

I think by (2) he doesn't mean both Jets game, but the second Jets game only.

[ToGoGo]

1 hour ago, AZSanta said:

I/m sorry my opinion offends you snowflake

Your opinion offends the universe and reality itself. 

[GoBills808]

9 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Is that all that different from most QB's though? Especially this year it seems QB's have great games followed up with below average games. There's a reason why there isn't a single QB this year running away with MVP. Every week people are trying to justify giving the award to Hurts who has struggled this year but is on a great team. Or Mahomes who certainly does not have better numbers than Allen this year either.  

 

It's certainly not realistic for Allen to have 30 passing TD's and 3 INT's on the season. Just as it is not realistic to say he'll never have great games so throw those three out and just look at his other 8. 

 

I think by (2) he doesn't mean both Jets game, but the second Jets game only.

I mean if you remove mahomes best 3 games the breakdown will likely be similar

 

Not sure what it is supposed to prove

[SWATeam]

43 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Not sure where that was...I would not personally put our oline in the top5

Eagles, Chiefs, Ravens, Lions,  Vikings to me are pry clearly the top units in pass pro

Chiefs tackles kind of suck.  Their interior is great 

[AZSanta]

15 minutes ago, ToGoGo said:

Your opinion offends the universe and reality itself. 

Maybe its time to grow up junior. You cant handle a person saying your favorite QB isnt as good as you might want him to be

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

11 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I mean if you remove mahomes best 3 games the breakdown will likely be similar

 

Not sure what it is supposed to prove

 

Exactly. It didn't take long at all to run the numbers for Mahomes

 

3 Best games: 9TD's 1 INT, 977 yds (325ypg) 75% completion

 

Other 7 games: 10 TD's 8 INTs, 1642 yds (234 ypg) 64% completion

 

Basically, the same drop off Allen has. I'm guessing this is the case for most all QB's. Only the one's that are probably having elite 115+ passer rating type seasons will probably not see as significant drop offs. 

[Mikie2times]

6 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Is that all that different from most QB's though? Especially this year it seems QB's have great games followed up with below average games. There's a reason why there isn't a single QB this year running away with MVP. Every week people are trying to justify giving the award to Hurts who has struggled this year but is on a great team. Or Mahomes who certainly does not have better numbers than Allen this year either.  

 

It's certainly not realistic for Allen to have 30 passing TD's and 3 INT's on the season. Just as it is not realistic to say he'll never have great games so throw those three out and just look at his other 8. 

 

I think by (2) he doesn't mean both Jets game, but the second Jets game only.

When Allen doesn't play well we go nowhere. We don't score, we don't win. It's not just sort of bad. Nothing works. It's the exact opposite when he plays well. Everything works. We drop 40 on most teams. We overwhelm teams. 

 

Why is it so severe and is that an issue?

 

You could say it's because so much of the offense is built around him. That makes sense. But it's also in the play itself. When Allen is bad, he's awful. Bad picks. Difficulty getting first downs and sustaining any TOP on offense. It all but removes our chance at winning it's so bad. That type of play is occurring too much this season. Even if the overall numbers look good which as usual are being elevated by the ridiculously above average games. 

 

Everybody loves the Mahomes comparison this year who clearly isn't having a great year and nobody would say for a second that he is. So then they use that logic to justify Josh not having a great year and how all QB play is down.  But what about the Purdy, Tagovailoa, Wilson, Prescott, Cousins, on it goes. Players in the top 10 in QBR this year who are not having nearly the rate of games this year so bad that winning is all but lost. Sure all QB's have them. They just don't have them at these rates. 

 

This thread is now hijacked and that is not my intention. But to get back to the point of the thread. To think that Josh can't grow more by reducing the variance is not just a decent questions. It's obvious. We have also seen this for a long time now. So to ask if it will ever change is not insulting it's logical. The high's and lows are too big and the playoffs require some degree of steadiness for multiple games. We will never survive this type of rollercoaster. 

 

In 19 career losses Mahomes has 92.4 rating, in 22 losses Burrow has a 83.4 rating. 

 

In 30 career losses Allen has a 73.2 rating. 

6 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Exactly. It didn't take long at all to run the numbers for Mahomes

 

3 Best games: 9TD's 1 INT, 977 yds (325ypg) 75% completion

 

Other 7 games: 10 TD's 8 INTs, 1642 yds (234 ypg) 64% completion

 

Basically, the same drop off Allen has. I'm guessing this is the case for most all QB's. Only the one's that are probably having elite 115+ passer rating type seasons will probably not see as significant drop offs. 

It's not the case unfortunately 

[Buffalo03]

1 hour ago, AZSanta said:

I'm not saying we should trade him. I love watching him play. As I said I believe we can win a Super Bowl with him as is. I ' think we will see Drew Brees or Tom Brady level of excellence from him. I'm okay with it.

I said i believe we can win a Super Bowl with him. I don't see him going to another level like Brees, Brady, Mahommes, and Manning.

He is as good as those guys. What did he show in his 3rd, 4th and 5th years to say other wise? I think he is more than capable of that. He's very similar to Mahomes only with a Favre type edge to him. And even if he doesn't have 50 TDs and multiple 5000 yard passing seasons, why does that matter? If he had 4500 yard seasons every year, over 40 TDs a year, who cares? 

[ToGoGo]

12 minutes ago, AZSanta said:

Maybe it’s time to grow up junior. You cant handle a person saying your favorite QB isnt as good as you might want him to be

Not if that person has no clue what he’s talk about. Senior. 

[AZSanta]

6 minutes ago, ToGoGo said:

Not if that person has no clue what he’s talk about. Senior. 

Yea okay go cry to mommy the mean internet guy said something no so flattering about Joshy

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

4 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

Everybody loves the Mahomes comparison this year who clearly isn't having a great year and nobody would say for a second that he is. So then they use that logic to justify Josh not having a great year and how all QB play is down.  But what about the Purdy, Tagovailoa, Wilson, Prescott, Cousins, on it goes. Players in the top 10 in QBR this year who are not having nearly the rate of games this year so bad that winning is all but lost. Sure all QB's have them. They just don't have them at these rates. 

 

 

 

How about Tua?

 

3 best games: 10 TD's 1 INT, 345 ypg 71 %

 

All other games: 11 TD's 7 INT's 271 ypg 69%

 

How about Dak?

 

3 best games: 11 TD's 2 INT's 360 YPG 73%

 

All other games: 8 TD's 4 INT's 217 YPG 69%  

 

Crazy yardage differential with Dak

 

See how ridiculous it is to take away a QB's 3 best games? Do it for every QB and you basically get the same result I am sure. Allen is no different than the other QB's in that regard. So it's not just about Mahomes having a down year this year. 

 

Allen's career losses vs Mahomes and Burrow. That's interesting.  Maybe it is because he is forced to shoulder more. Maybe it is something else.  But I'd be more interested in the breakdown of his career losses since 2020. We all know Allen was half the QB he is today and became since 2020. His rookie year, throwing the ball to guys out of the league the following year after his rookie year. 

[GoBills808]

5 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

How about Tua?

 

3 best games: 10 TD's 1 INT, 345 ypg 71 %

 

All other games: 11 TD's 7 INT's 271 ypg 69%

 

How about Dak?

 

3 best games: 11 TD's 2 INT's 360 YPG 73%

 

All other games: 8 TD's 4 INT's 217 YPG 69%  

 

Crazy yardage differential with Dak

 

See how ridiculous it is to take away a QB's 3 best games? Do it for every QB and you basically get the same result I am sure. Allen is no different than the other QB's in that regard. So it's not just about Mahomes having a down year this year. 

 

Allen's career losses vs Mahomes and Burrow. That's interesting.  Maybe it is because he is forced to shoulder more. Maybe it is something else.  But I'd be more interested in the breakdown of his career losses since 2020. We all know Allen was half the QB he is today and became since 2020. His rookie year, throwing the ball to guys out of the league the following year after his rookie year. 

Regardless the standard is out of control

 

It's not enough that he's statistically the top QB in the league, he needs to be the top QB every single week...just not realistic

 

 

 

 

[Mikie2times]

4 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

How about Tua?

 

3 best games: 10 TD's 1 INT, 345 ypg 71 %

 

All other games: 11 TD's 7 INT's 271 ypg 69%

 

How about Dak?

 

3 best games: 11 TD's 2 INT's 360 YPG 73%

 

All other games: 8 TD's 4 INT's 217 YPG 69%  

 

Crazy yardage differential with Dak

 

See how ridiculous it is to take away a QB's 3 best games? Do it for every QB and you basically get the same result I am sure. Allen is no different than the other QB's in that regard. So it's not just about Mahomes having a down year this year. 

 

Allen's career losses vs Mahomes and Burrow. That's interesting.  Maybe it is because he is forced to shoulder more. Maybe it is something else.  But I'd be more interested in the breakdown of his career losses since 2020. We all know Allen was half the QB he is today and became since 2020. His rookie year, throwing the ball to guys out of the league the following year after his rookie year. 

You realize in losses Allen is among the worse QB's in the league in QB rating since he has joined the NFL? 

[oldmanfan]

No he hasn’t.  To reach the ceiling and break through it will involve the mental vs. physical.

[Southern_Bills]

Maybe he has, but what does it matter? Allen is good enough to win a Super Bowl, he was 2 years ago.

 

So to imply he hit his Ceiling and that's why we can't win is crazy. 

[bigK14094]

JA is a top 5 QB and can win a superbowl some year(s) depending on the support crew.  Ride w Josh until he stops playing.

[AZSanta]

14 minutes ago, Southern_Bills said:

Maybe he has, but what does it matter? Allen is good enough to win a Super Bowl, he was 2 years ago.

 

So to imply he hit his Ceiling and that's why we can't win is crazy. 

Im not implying that at all as a matter of fact I said I think we can win a Super Bowl with him and his current stats. What post are you reading?

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

24 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

You realize in losses Allen is among the worse QB's in the league in QB rating since he has joined the NFL? 

Not surprised.
 

He does have a lot of variance. As mentioned he was half the QB he is today, in his first two years in the league. Would be interested in if the numbers are better, worse or the  same since 2020 compared to his career.

 

So you are just going to die on that mole hill that removing Allen’s three best games somehow shows something meaningful compared to the other QB’s having their three best games removed? They all show huge drop offs when that is done. 
 

 

[Mikie2times]

 

The point was Allen plays worse than most when he's not on and the variance is too extreme. I don't think that is really debatable when you look at rating in losses.  

11 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Not surprised.
 

He does have a lot of variance. As mentioned he was half the QB he is today, in his first two years in the league. Would be interested in if the numbers are better, worse or the  same since 2020 compared to his career.

 

So you are just going to die on that mole hill that removing Allen’s three best games somehow shows something meaningful compared to the other QB’s having their three best games removed? They all show huge drop offs when that is done. 
 

 

 

[billsfan89]

I honestly don’t think Josh has reached his ceiling. He has some of the best if not the best physical tools of any QB to play the game. That’s along with the mental and mechanical tools to put that all together. So his ceiling is having all time great seasons. Similar to the year Mahomes had in 2018 or Brady had in 2007.
 

Josh’s closest year to that level of production was 2020 but I think he can do better than that. I think a season with 40+ TD’s sub 8 INT’s is the type of season I would say is Josh’s ceiling. 
 

[Don Otreply]

He will reach his peak when he has an GM,HC and OC that continually work to capitalize on his and his offenses skill sets, until then he will not have peaked. 
 

GO BILLS!!!

[90sBills]

12 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

I honestly don’t think Josh has reached his ceiling. He has some of the best if not the best physical tools of any QB to play the game. That’s along with the mental and mechanical tools to put that all together. So his ceiling is having all time great seasons. Similar to the year Mahomes had in 2018 or Brady had in 2007.
 

Josh’s closest year to that level of production was 2020 but I think he can do better than that. I think a season with 40+ TD’s sub 8 INT’s is the type of season I would say is Josh’s ceiling. 
 

He doesn’t have the mental capacities of Brady or Mahomes. This is where he can grow. 

56 minutes ago, AZSanta said:

Im not implying that at all as a matter of fact I said I think we can win a Super Bowl with him and his current stats. What post are you reading?

I agree with your assessment. Bills can win a Superbowl with Allen but this is who he is at this point. There isn’t any untapped potential waiting to be unleashed after 6 years starting. There’s nothing wrong with that btw. 

[Dunkirk Donski]

Pretty sure Gosh Allen can touch my ceiling.  This thread is dumb

Edited November 23, 2023 by Dunkirk Donski

[nedboy7]

I dont think Josh has reached his peak but this board might have reached a new low in self hating. 

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

@GunnerBilldont just throw those disagree emojis around, jump on in lol

 

i mean we got Allen's peaked/he drinks too much/doesn't put in the work in the offseason/can't control his emotions...something for everyone😂

 

I just don't think he is mentally in a great space. I don't think it is football related. I don't know what it is. But his behaviour has been odd all season. And not compared to anyone else compared to him in previous years.

[Heitz]

Josh got No Ceilings, much like Weezy.  

[Mr. WEO]

3 hours ago, AZSanta said:

Sorry you dont like my post. It seems to be well received by the more mature members of the group.

tell us what’s unique about your premise?

[VW82]

From a pure impact standpoint, I think yes. He hit his ceiling two years ago and has regressed slightly since the elbow injury last year. Like it or not, Josh will never be as dangerous escaping the pocket or with designed runs as he was in his early-mid twenties. 

 

That said, he hasn't hit his ceiling as a passer imo, and I fully expect him to get incrementally better at traditional QB things as he ages. 

[Prospector]

I was able to reach the ceiling at my house when I was like 11 years old. I’m sure Josh was probably the same