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VW82

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  1. I think OP took any pass that was even remotely catchable (even if the receiver had to lay out to get his finger tips on it, or stop/alter his route and pull it off the ground) and called it a drop/catchable whereas the PFF and ESPN guys held QBs to a little higher standard in terms of what was considered on target. That would seem to be a simpler explanation than assuming everyone is so completely confused with accuracy vs. precision that they messed up their whole analysis.
  2. You're just flat wrong on this which is funny because you're accusing everyone else of mistaking them. Accuracy is measured as the distance from the accepted value (i.e. the bulls eye) and the experimental value (i.e. where the throw landed on the dart board). Precision is the measure of deviation from the average throw. Let's say the dot in the red bulls eye (which you claim is more precise but not more accurate than dots outside the red bulls eye) was all by itself, and the rest of the dots were like the dart board on the upper right. The bulls eye dot would be accurate, but not precise in comparison to the rest of the throws. You have it completely backwards. Just because a throw is within the catch radius does not make it equally accurate to all other throws within the catch radius.
  3. Ok so taking the lower left chart as example, would you agree that one of the dots in the red bulls eye is more accurate than one of the dots in the white space? My interpretation is fine. You're making the same mistake as OP in assuming that there are no degrees of accuracy. It's harder to catch a pass at the knees or shoelaces (where you have to bend down to get it) than one that hits you right in the chest. One pass is more accurate than the other.
  4. An accurate throw is one that hits the receiver in the numbers (i.e. a bulls eye). A throw that hits him in the knees is less accurate. A throw that hits him in his shoe is even less accurate than the one at the knees. Precision refers to the deviations of his throws from one another. If all of Josh's throws were at knee level, he'd be very precise (though perhaps not as accurate as we'd like). The fact Josh had issues throwing in front, behind, high, low, and otherwise is evidence of his lack of precision, and the degree to which he was in front, behind, high, low, and otherwise is evidence of his issues with accuracy (though OP didn't get into that besides tracking uncatchables). I've posted this before, but here's the visual representation. Having read both the PFF and ESPN articles, I can't tell whether they're confusing accuracy and precision. It's possible they are though I doubt it. If I missed the smoking gun please feel free to point it out. So far all I've read are accusations. Specifically, I believe they were talking about percentage of off target throws - that's a(n imperfect) measure of accuracy. It would be better if someone could give average distance from the bulls eye for all these guys, or put them all on a dart board like above. Edit: also, OP didn't conclude that Allen and the other rookies were accurate. He concluded that Allen was as accurate as the other rookies. He didn't do an analysis comparing rookie accuracy to the rest of the NFL QBs.
  5. I made this point earlier in the thread but it appears to have been lost in all the replies...I don't think your analysis debunks the accuracy claims. It debunks the claim that he throws a greater percentage of uncatchable balls than other rookies. Your analysis assumes that a ball thrown late and 100 MPH at a receiver's shoe lace is essentially the same as one thrown on time and hits the receiver in stride. Both are technically catchable. Please correct me if I'm wrong. PFF and ESPN Stats & Info did this exact same analysis and concluded that Josh threw a greater percentage of "off target throws" than anyone else in the NFL, including the rookies. It's unclear how much their version of an off target throw differs from your uncatchable throw. Anyways, as someone who did a truncated version of this (and got killed for it), you have my appreciation and sympathy. I don't agree with your methodology as I understand it, but your conclusion is interesting nonetheless, and I'm prepared to take it at face value. Nice work.
  6. I'd feel a lot better about Allen if the team did a better job putting him in positions to succeed. There's a reason he looked better throwing to Foster and Mckenzie. Those guys could get open. Also, we need a new line.
  7. When PFF and ESPN Stats & Info did this exact same analysis, they concluded that Josh was responsible for the greatest percentage of off target throws in the whole league. I suspect their methodology for what constitutes an accurate pass was a little different. Specifically, I don't think you can say that just because the rookie QBs hit the dart board (i.e. catchable) that means they were accurate. Some guys, like Baker, are hitting the bulls eye with regularity whereas others, like Allen, are all over the dart board. Perhaps that explains the vastly different result you got as you seemed to ignore that part on purpose. It is interesting that his rate of uncatchable balls was about the same as the other rookies though.
  8. He scored a couple TDs this year with the option play. I bet that stays in our goal line package. He's going to get better at reading when it isn't there and throwing it. That was one of the areas I thought he improved over the last two games.
  9. I can't stand RRP play calling sequences though it's different when you have players like Wilson, Allen, or Jackson. I can at least see the logic of trying to win using RPO or option/wildcat if you think they can't stop the run. At some point Carroll should have spread the field and let Wilson play QB. I hope we're all done with designed Allen runs. I'm fine with him scrambling for big gains when defenses given him the middle of the field. The best thing we can do for Josh is give him a line and a running game to work from using play action. Sometimes that means RRP.
  10. VW82

    Robert Foster makes PFF All-Rookie Team

    I wonder how much the success of Foster (and to a lesser degree Mckenzie) will impact how the Bills view the types of receivers they target moving forward. Allen's accuracy issues are well documented, and so finding guys that can really get open becomes that much more important. The one thing that Zay, Clay, Holmes, and KB all had in common is none of them were very good at gaining separation. You probably give up some blocking, execution on wr screens, etc., going after guys like that but until Allen can learn to become more precise on his throws (i.e. leading receivers away from defenders more consistently) there are going to be issues completing balls in tight coverage.
  11. Is he still that guy though? Brown is undersized for the position and turns 31 next year. Also, football is a team sport. I like the fact McD targets guys who buy in to the team culture first. We might not always get the most talented player but it takes 53 to make the playoffs, and so if your more talented guy is taking things off the table for the other players it doesn't always work. The worst kind of player is the former star on a big contract who thinks he's still a big time player, and distracts the team with his selfish behaviour.
  12. I always thought it was tough to get a really good read based on his college experience (outside of him clearly being raw) but looking at it from week one to now, I'm definitely more optimistic than I was. His ability to feel the rush (post snap) is night and day from training camp. Remember the Green Bay game when he was running from ghosts? Or all the throws in the first half of the year where he was milliseconds away from getting sacked because he had no idea he was about to get hit? He's basically Aaron Rodgers now in terms of his sixth sense in the pocket. It's really incredible. I like his on field leadership too. He has a boyish positivity you sometimes see in young people who haven't been jaded yet by life that just seems infectious. He also does a good job leveraging his big plays to help fire up teammates. At the beginning of the year he was a blob of clay. Now you can see the outline of where an NFL QB might one day be molded. It's exciting.
  13. VW82

    We need to trade down...

    It’s year three of the rebuild. Anyone expecting us to trade down is going to be sorely disappointed IMO. McBeane are safe for now but they know they have only so much time to turn things around. We’re one more stud play maker on the defensive line away from having a truly elite unit, and given McD’s personality and background I’d be shocked if he passed up that opportunity unless he was fairly certain he could get his guy a few picks later. If anything, I expect they’ll be more inclined to trade up in the second or third rounds to get guys they think will fit the culture on offense.
  14. We should definitely do that. I agree there's likely inter and intraobserver variance breaking down tape - it's an excellent point. No one's perfect. It's also partly why I quoted you and pointed toward the ESPN analysis and referenced back to my own. The fact we (PFF, ESPN, me) all likely used slightly different methodology but came to such a similar result is interesting. Obv I didn't do the entire year and didn't have access to the same tech they likely did so it's not apples to apples but I think it's at least noteworthy if not highly coincidental.
  15. I want to quickly address Hapless's point about how we don't really know on any of these throws whether the receiver ran the route correctly, and so therefore we can't say for sure that these off target throws are actually Allen's fault. I think it's very valid on timing throws where the throw is made before the receiver makes his break; however, shouldn't we still put at least some (if not most) of the blame on the QB for not adjusting once he sees the receiver cut on an 80 degree angle as appose to 70 degrees for example? This isn't a video game where you pick your play and only throw to a spot regardless of what else is happening. IRL things change and we re-calculate on the spot. Food for thought.
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