HIT BY SPIKES Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 Given the typical 3 points the Home Team gets and the Bengals are on a 3 game winning streak — beat @Cardinals, Seahawks and @49’ers — and the Bills have stumbled to victories recently, it seems Vegas sees the Bills in a more positive light than many here. I tend to be an optimistic Bills fan however I don’t have a good feeling about Sunday Night’s game in Cincinnati. What do you think Vegas is seeing that perhaps we are overlooking? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chongli Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 The Bengals are -13 in point differential whereas the Bills are +86. The Bengals are 0-3 vs. AFC teams. That's all I have at this late hour. 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIT BY SPIKES Posted October 30, 2023 Author Share Posted October 30, 2023 4 minutes ago, chongli said: The Bengals are -13 in point differential whereas the Bills are +86. The Bengals are 0-3 vs. AFC teams. That's all I have at this late hour. That makes sense. The Bengals had a very rough start to the season where those factors you listed happened. Vegas isn’t putting a lot of emphasis on momentum. That the Bengals clearly have and the Bills do not. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Brown Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 Advanced line was a pickem before the 49ers game so I'm not surprised it moved a couple of points. Home team gets 1.5 to 2 points so Vegas sees us as even I guess. Not sure they factored in the incoming Levi Wallace trade. 1 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newcam2012 Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 The line has already moved to -2.5. By kick off the line should be -3.5. I already hammered the Bengals at -2.5. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott7975 Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 1 hour ago, newcam2012 said: The line has already moved to -2.5. By kick off the line should be -3.5. I already hammered the Bengals at -2.5. What does hammered mean, 50 bucks? When I see someone say “hammered” I expect they bet the house. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newcam2012 Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 3 minutes ago, Scott7975 said: What does hammered mean, 50 bucks? When I see someone say “hammered” I expect they bet the house. Well I'm a small better and never bet too much. It's all relative. I bet $300. That's a lot for me. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machine gun kelly Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 Home advantage line for years has been 1.5 so Vegas is basically saying it’s an even game. I watched the Bengals game yesterday and they look more complete than us right now. That doesn’t mean the Bills can’t come out like they played in the Dolphins game. This will be our toughest test. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xwnyer Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 2 hours ago, HIT BY SPIKES said: Given the typical 3 points the Home Team gets and the Bengals are on a 3 game winning streak — beat @Cardinals, Seahawks and @49’ers — and the Bills have stumbled to victories recently, it seems Vegas sees the Bills in a more positive light than many here. I tend to be an optimistic Bills fan however I don’t have a good feeling about Sunday Night’s game in Cincinnati. What do you think Vegas is seeing that perhaps we are overlooking? After watching how they dismantled San Fran defense yesterday and the pressure they got on QB could be an ugly game for the Bills. Bengals 48 Bills 17 1 2 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Since1981 Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 bengals have momentum, bills don’t. Bengals have proven capable of beating bills. Feels like cats should be favorited by more betting-wise. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIT BY SPIKES Posted October 30, 2023 Author Share Posted October 30, 2023 25 minutes ago, Since1981 said: bengals have momentum, bills don’t. Bengals have proven capable of beating bills. Feels like cats should be favorited by more betting-wise. That is what I was thinking as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PBF81 Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 All that "Vegas" is, is the trending opinion. Until the heavy money gets lopsided anyway. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shortchaz Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 Bengals are a bad matchup for the bills. the bills will need their A game on both sides of the ball and hopefully cincy is off for some reason. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 I believe Vegas has adjusted the 3 points at home to like 1.5 for most teams (believe the Bills and Chiefs get 3 still because we have legit home field advantage). I mean it should be a really close line. But as others have said, the bengals will get bet heavy and the line will be higher before game time. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain_Quint Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 I think the line continues to move to the Bengals and we see our first big loss. Not saying we get blown out, but it seems the two teams are moving in opposite directions right now (similar to when we met last year). Maybe the 10 days off gave the Bills a little extra, but to me this is one of those games coming up. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harryS Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 2 hours ago, newcam2012 said: The line has already moved to -2.5. By kick off the line should be -3.5. I already hammered the Bengals at -2.5. You got a bad line as the spread is 2 or 1.5 across the board right now (mostly 2s). 2 isn't really that key a number so hopefully no big deal; hopefully the game doesn't end on a failed 2-pt conversion by the Bills or something like that. As for your prediction of the line moving to 3.5, I doubt it. I have already bet the Bengals so like you I think 1.5/2 is too short of a line. However, keep in mind that on Jan 2 of this year (Game 17 of last season), the Bills were also at Cincy (the canceled game) and the Bills were 2.5-pt favorites in that game. In other words, there's already been a pretty decent adjustment in the spread to reflect the results since then (including Cincy's domination of Buffalo in the playoffs). The most I could see this getting to is -3 even money (so heavily juiced on the +3 side). To go through the 3 to 3.5 is a stretch barring significant new injury news. Truth be told, even getting to 3 even is perhaps a stretch. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newcam2012 Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, harryS said: You got a bad line as the spread is 2 or 1.5 across the board right now (mostly 2s). 2 isn't really that key a number so hopefully no big deal; hopefully the game doesn't end on a failed 2-pt conversion by the Bills or something like that. As for your prediction of the line moving to 3.5, I doubt it. I have already bet the Bengals so like you I think 1.5/2 is too short of a line. However, keep in mind that on Jan 2 of this year (Game 17 of last season), the Bills were also at Cincy (the canceled game) and the Bills were 2.5-pt favorites in that game. In other words, there's already been a pretty decent adjustment in the spread to reflect the results since then (including Cincy's domination of Buffalo in the playoffs). The most I could see this getting to is -3 even money (so heavily juiced on the +3 side). To go through the 3 to 3.5 is a stretch barring significant new injury news. Truth be told, even getting to 3 even is perhaps a stretch. I think the line will move to plus 3 for Buffalo. I think sharp money will be all over the Bengals at home. I'd be surprised if the hook goes to Buffalo for plus 3.5. The public just saw the Bengals beat a very good niner team on the road. The way they won was impressive. Meanwhile, the struggling Bills hung on for dear life to beat a Baker Mayfield led team in their home building. I don't find the references of last year being pertinent now. The Bills were the super bowl favorites and the darlings on many in the NFL. They were often over bet and the betting lines were often slightly inaccurate. This year isn't the case especially with the injuries. Edited October 30, 2023 by newcam2012 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SageAgainstTheMachine Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 2 hours ago, Since1981 said: bengals have momentum, bills don’t. Bengals have proven capable of beating bills. Feels like cats should be favorited by more betting-wise. Vegas sharps are Vegas sharps because they see past things like momentum and which team won the matchup last year. 6 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Darragh Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 4 hours ago, Doc Brown said: Not sure they factored in the incoming Levi Wallace trade. Or Devon Levi. Another CB/Goalie connection for the Bills and Sabres? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newcam2012 Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 22 minutes ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said: Vegas sharps are Vegas sharps because they see past things like momentum and which team won the matchup last year. Vegas sharps are Vegas sharps because they recognize the significance of good play and momentum. They can analyse matchups and see who has the better advantages. There I fixed it for you. 21 minutes ago, Dan Darragh said: Or Devon Levi. Another CB/Goalie connection for the Bills and Sabres? Or the addition of Josh Norman A great leader with something in the tank. He looks to be a special teams star too. Allen they need now is to get Beasley and Brown back on the roster! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 5 hours ago, HIT BY SPIKES said: Given the typical 3 points the Home Team gets and the Bengals are on a 3 game winning streak — beat @Cardinals, Seahawks and @49’ers — and the Bills have stumbled to victories recently, it seems Vegas sees the Bills in a more positive light than many here. I tend to be an optimistic Bills fan however I don’t have a good feeling about Sunday Night’s game in Cincinnati. What do you think Vegas is seeing that perhaps we are overlooking? Vegas has liked the Bills all year, yet we’re only 3-5 ATS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikePJ76 Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 I had multiple people here tell me I must not watch football if I think the bengals are good. The bills do not have the horses to slow down that offense. They are going to have to win a 38-35 game. Doesn't feel like they are built to do that right now. It feels like the game sunday will be a worse version of the playoff game last year. They have to go get help for this defense today or tomorrow, they just have to 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
julian Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 5 hours ago, HIT BY SPIKES said: Given the typical 3 points the Home Team gets and the Bengals are on a 3 game winning streak — beat @Cardinals, Seahawks and @49’ers — and the Bills have stumbled to victories recently, it seems Vegas sees the Bills in a more positive light than many here. I tend to be an optimistic Bills fan however I don’t have a good feeling about Sunday Night’s game in Cincinnati. What do you think Vegas is seeing that perhaps we are overlooking? Josh Allen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 3 hours ago, newcam2012 said: Well I'm a small better and never bet too much. It's all relative. I bet $300. That's a lot for me. hope you lose 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beast Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 I was expecting a -4.5 to -5 for the Bengals. The Bills are just all out of sorts. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 Bills are still Top 5 in DVOA. Vegas sees them, and rightly so, as a very good team. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloRebound Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 I think it’s fortuitous that we’re playing the Bengals the week of the trade deadline. McBeane can’t fool themselves in regards to the Bills weaknesses with the very real possibility of being bullied by the Bengals coming up. I think a Donta Foreman type hammer RB to replace Harris and a stout DT next to Oliver are a must. Probably wouldn’t cost more than a 4th and 6th rounder to fill those needs. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastMaster Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 My initial feeling is that the Bills will put up a good fight, but the Bengals will just be too much on offense to stop late. Maybe we get lucky with a key turnover or something, but smart money is on Cincy 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain_Quint Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 28 minutes ago, BeastMaster said: My initial feeling is that the Bills will put up a good fight, but the Bengals will just be too much on offense to stop late. Maybe we get lucky with a key turnover or something, but smart money is on Cincy My biggest fear is listening to Chris Collingsworth call a Cincy game. And if they get rolling, it will be unbearable. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Generic_Bills_Fan Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 38 minutes ago, Beast said: I was expecting a -4.5 to -5 for the Bengals. The Bills are just all out of sorts. Vegas doesn’t trust the bengals yet either…Deebo-less 49ers are a mediocre at best team that is now 0-3 in a 3 game stretch. Don’t think the non buffalo fan bettors are taking as much out of the niners bengals game as we are. it’s possible they’re just starting out on an epic run but it’s possible they aren’t too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DabillsDaBillsDaBills Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 The Bengals are having an interesting season. Offensively they've had 2 great, 1 mediocre, and 4 awful games. Defensively has been great the whole year outside of an inexplicable pounding in Tennessee. Obviously they are trending in a better direction than the Bills with those 2 great offensive games coming in the last 3 weeks. One of those was against the Cardinals (possibly the worst team in the league) and a suddenly reeling 49ers team. The Bills have avenged their last 2 playoff losses to KC with regular season wins at KC. I think we'll do the same to the Bengals this year with our offense finally hitting high gear again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drew21PA Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 I’m betting bengals by at least a TD this werk hope I lose my money Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloMatt Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 Its gonna be a long week and i don't have a good feeling about this one. Then again I never do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramza86 Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 We are gonna get absolutely stomped again. This one is gonna be tough to watch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WotAGuy Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 Bengals are just a difficult matchup for the Bills. Just like Jacksonville and the Jets. Not sure why, maybe it’s mojo or just certain individual matchups are bad, but it’s the NFL ‘Nother Flucking Loss - which also describes my betting record this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zow2 Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 7 hours ago, HIT BY SPIKES said: Given the typical 3 points the Home Team gets and the Bengals are on a 3 game winning streak — beat @Cardinals, Seahawks and @49’ers — and the Bills have stumbled to victories recently, it seems Vegas sees the Bills in a more positive light than many here. I tend to be an optimistic Bills fan however I don’t have a good feeling about Sunday Night’s game in Cincinnati. What do you think Vegas is seeing that perhaps we are overlooking? By the way, I was listening to a show about Vegas NFL odds and the "3 points for home teams" is not a thing anymore. They said homefield is not the huge advantage it used to be, everything is analytical now. At best the home team nowadays gets 1.5 points towards their side. 1 minute ago, WotAGuy said: Bengals are just a difficult matchup for the Bills. Just like Jacksonville and the Jets. Not sure why, maybe it’s mojo or just certain individual matchups are bad, but it’s the NFL ‘Nother Flucking Loss - which also describes my betting record this year. It's been a bad matchup all the way back to the 1988 AFC Championship game. I agree, we just haven't matched up well with the Bengals, especially in the big games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloRebound Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 3 minutes ago, WotAGuy said: Bengals are just a difficult matchup for the Bills. Just like Jacksonville and the Jets. Not sure why, maybe it’s mojo or just certain individual matchups are bad, but it’s the NFL ‘Nother Flucking Loss - which also describes my betting record this year. Bengals are physical on both sides of ball with an excellent QB who will take the 6-7 yard pass all day. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78thealltimegreat Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 Have to remember as bad as the Bills played the 49ers team the Bengals just played scored 9 points against Cleveland and 17 points against Minnesota. They still should have lost to the Seahawks last week. So the Bengals are playing better but it’s not like we are playing some juggernaut that why even bother showing up type of game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uticaclub Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 The Bengals defense shows up in big games, Buffalo’s doesn't (other than the Ravens playoff game) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Generic_Bills_Fan Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 Just now, 78thealltimegreat said: Have to remember as bad as the Bills played the 49ers team the Bengals just played scored 9 points against Cleveland and 17 points against Minnesota. They still should have lost to the Seahawks last week. So the Bengals are playing better but it’s not like we are playing some juggernaut that why even bother showing up type of game. The 49ers are lost without Deebo…we may lose for sure but this notion that the bengals beat a juggernaut is objectively false. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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