Bengals Early 1.5 Point Favourites — Vegas More Optimistic About the Bills Than Many?

[90sBills]

6 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

The line has already moved to -2.5. By kick off the line should be -3.5. 

 

I already hammered the Bengals at -2.5. 

I took the Bengals too. This line is undervalued. Just like Bengals +5 against SF that I took a few days ago. If I’m wrong then the Bills have won and it’s more enjoyable on this board. If I’m right then I’d be a few bucks happier and this board will be…highly entertaining. 

[dave mcbride]

31 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

The Bengals are having an interesting season. 

 

Offensively they've had 2 great, 1 mediocre, and 4 awful games. 

 

Defensively has been great the whole year outside of an inexplicable pounding in Tennessee. 

 

Obviously they are trending in a better direction than the Bills with those 2 great offensive games coming in the last 3 weeks. One of those was against the Cardinals (possibly the worst team in the league) and a suddenly reeling 49ers team. 

 

The Bills have avenged their last 2 playoff losses to KC with regular season wins at KC. I think we'll do the same to the Bengals this year with our offense finally hitting high gear again. 

I think the Bills might get curb-stomped. To beat the Bengals, you need strong DT play, particularly interior push. Otherwise, Burrow just picks teams apart. The Bills don't have a credible 1T now, and they'll be exploited again (just like in the playoff game last season). The Bills' offense will need to score over 30 points to have a chance, and I just don't see it. I mean, they could only put up 24 against TB and they looked good on offense on Thursday. In the previous three games, they didn't surpass 25. The Bengals' defense is better than all of those other teams, and they'll be playing at home.  

Edited October 30, 2023 by dave mcbride

[BuffaloRebound]

I’m loving the timing of this game.  Time to find out if we’re contenders or pretenders. 

[78thealltimegreat]

10 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I think the Bills might get curb-stomped. To beat the Bengals, you need strong DT play, particularly interior push. Otherwise, Burrow just picks teams apart. The Bills don't have a credible 1T now, and they'll be exploited again (just like in the playoff game last season). The Bills' offense will need to score over 30 points to have a chance, and I just don't see it. I mean, they could only put up 24 against TB and they looked good on offense on Thursday. In the previous three games, they didn't surpass 25. The Bengals' defense is better than all of those other teams, and they'll be playing at home.  

The question you have to ask yourself is are the Bills better than Seattle if the answer is yes they can win. If the answer is no turn of the tv by halftime 

[BuffaloBaumer]

I have never bet on an NFL game but I think I have to for this one. My biggest fear is putting $500 down and then the Bills lose by 1

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

18 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

I took the Bengals too. This line is undervalued. Just like Bengals +5 against SF that I took a few days ago. If I’m wrong then the Bills have won and it’s more enjoyable on this board. If I’m right then I’d be a few bucks happier and this board will be…highly entertaining. 

I’m not sure that it is undervalued going into the game but you may end up making your money anyway so who cares haha. I think the logic is the bengals have looked good one game against a team that has been in a free fall the last few weeks.  Everyone is getting hung up on it being the 49ers but the 49ers have been a mess for nearly a month now. 

 

we’re in here talking about the bengals physical defense but the bucs defense is better by every advanced metric and we moved the ball pretty well on them.  It’s gonna come down to who gets more red zone stops so I’ve got it as a 50/50 game at a neutral site/slight cincy favorite at home 

 

buffalo and cincy are both near tops in the league in preventing tds in the red zone and TB is number 1. Red zone offense we are second in the league in TD percentage with Miami at 1. 

[Drew21PA]

49 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I think the Bills might get curb-stomped. To beat the Bengals, you need strong DT play, particularly interior push. Otherwise, Burrow just picks teams apart. The Bills don't have a credible 1T now, and they'll be exploited again (just like in the playoff game last season). The Bills' offense will need to score over 30 points to have a chance, and I just don't see it. I mean, they could only put up 24 against TB and they looked good on offense on Thursday. In the previous three games, they didn't surpass 25. The Bengals' defense is better than all of those other teams, and they'll be playing at home.  

Yeah this is going to be brutal in my opinion I am not optimistic

 

 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

47 minutes ago, BuffaloBaumer said:

I have never bet on an NFL game but I think I have to for this one. My biggest fear is putting $500 down and then the Bills lose by 1

I wouldn’t do it…that’s too much money for two of the most inconsistent good teams in the league playing against eachother 

If it were me I’d wait to let people overreacting to the niners game push the spread up and then take the bills with the points..  the most likely outcome I have is bills come up just short in a shootout if you’re gonna bet bengals I’d do it right now though lol

Edited October 30, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

43 minutes ago, BuffaloBaumer said:

I have never bet on an NFL game but I think I have to for this one. My biggest fear is putting $500 down and then the Bills lose by 1

Why not just bet the moneyline? It's not that big of a difference in the payout.

 

Spread betting is so dumb

[Process]

Insane movement on the line in 18 hours. Before the Bengals game Bills were -1.5 -122. Earlier this morning +1.5 +110. They are now +3 +142.

[The Wiz]

6 minutes ago, Process said:

Insane movement on the line in 18 hours. Before the Bengals game Bills were -1.5 -122. Earlier this morning +1.5 +110. They are now +3 +142.

Early money watched the bengals yesterday; doesn't surprise me with the movement.  They looked great against a top defense and Burrow was pretty much perfect.  

 

but yes, that is a very big move already.

Edited October 30, 2023 by The Wiz

[Cheektowaga Chad]

Not confident the bills can compete against the Bengals, expecting another blow out

[90sBills]

1 hour ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I’m not sure that it is undervalued going into the game but you may end up making your money anyway so who cares haha. I think the logic is the bengals have looked good one game against a team that has been in a free fall the last few weeks.  Everyone is getting hung up on it being the 49ers but the 49ers have been a mess for nearly a month now. 

 

we’re in here talking about the bengals physical defense but the bucs defense is better by every advanced metric and we moved the ball pretty well on them.  It’s gonna come down to who gets more red zone stops so I’ve got it as a 50/50 game at a neutral site/slight cincy favorite at home 

 

buffalo and cincy are both near tops in the league in preventing tds in the red zone and TB is number 1. Red zone offense we are second in the league in TD percentage with Miami at 1. 

I think it’s undervalued relative to Burrow’s health. They were sizable dogs to SF because of Burrow’s play prior to this past game. He was limited because of his injury. General betting fans forgot how good the Bengals are when he’s healthy. 
 

Bills can definitely win this game but if I’m a betting man (I am) I’d put my $ on the Bengals (I have lol). 

[90sBills]

2 hours ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

The question you have to ask yourself is are the Bills better than Seattle if the answer is yes they can win. If the answer is no turn of the tv by halftime 

This really is the biggest mistake most NFL fans and bettors make when it comes to analyzing games.
 

A > B. B > C. Therefore A > C rarely works out. Each game is independent of another during the regular season. Different matchups. Different motivations. The fact that Bills might be better than Seattle has little impact on how they will do against the Bengals. Just imo. 

[JROC INTEL]

2 hours ago, WotAGuy said:

Bengals are just a difficult matchup for the Bills. Just like Jacksonville and the Jets. Not sure why, maybe it’s mojo or just certain individual matchups are bad, but it’s the NFL ‘Nother Flucking Loss - which also describes my betting record this year. 
 

 

These teams you mentioned are physical teams, including the Bengals. This is why the Bills don’t match up well to these teams imo. 

[colin]

seeing cinci and kc yesterday, the biggest thing i notice is that cinci has an o designed to beat the cover 2/deep shell, disguise coverage stuff.

 

they do it with really fast accurate timing passes, that ball is out of there so fast, but not necessarily to dump offs.  they also run power at pass rushers.

 

to beat them, aside from allen and the o having a night, our D (corch claps really) needs to win the game of rock paper scissors pre and post snap.

[BillsShredder83]

7 hours ago, harryS said:

 

You got a bad line as the spread is 2 or 1.5 across the board right now (mostly 2s).  2 isn't really that key a number so hopefully no big deal; hopefully the game doesn't end on a failed 2-pt conversion by the Bills or something like that.

 

As for your prediction of the line moving to 3.5, I doubt it.  I have already bet the Bengals so like you I think 1.5/2 is too short of a line.  However, keep in mind that on Jan 2 of this year (Game 17 of last season), the Bills were also at Cincy (the canceled game) and the Bills were 2.5-pt favorites in that game.  In other words, there's already been a pretty decent adjustment in the spread to reflect the results since then (including Cincy's domination of Buffalo in the playoffs).

 

The most I could see this getting to is -3 even money (so heavily juiced on the +3 side).  To go through the 3 to 3.5 is a stretch barring significant new injury news.  Truth be told, even getting to 3 even is perhaps a stretch.  

 

 

 

 

this dude isnt even a bills fan. hope he loses that 300 and it hurts the pockets

[Lionel Hutz]

When was the last time the Bills were the betting underdogs?

[2003Contenders]

This one is a hard one for me to pick. Yes, the Bills and Bengals matched up twice last season. However, there is little to take away from either game.

 

In the Week 17 match-up last season, the game was cancelled in the 1st quarter after Hamlin's horrific injury. Up until that point neither defense seemed capable of stopping the opposing offense. Might that have resulted in a shootout over the course of a full game? Or, would one side or the other have adjusted?

 

In the playoffs, that is one of those games that I think from an evaluation point you simply burn the film. The Bills were clearly gassed heading into that game -- and many of the players afterwards admitted as much. Last season was a grind given all the drama on so many fronts, and it just felt like everything came crashing down that weekend. Yes, the Bengals clearly dominated that game, but they also had all of the energy.

 

I guess what I am saying is that it is hard to predict what will happen based on those two games from last year. It is true that our defense seemed incapable of stopping their offense in either game -- but the sample size is small and perhaps a bit deceiving. Also, the defensive game plan -- allowing 10-yard cushions against their receivers with Burrow getting rid of the ball quickly was a recipe for disaster. Of course, with Frazier gone now perhaps McD will be more aggressive. Hopefully he does not employ last year's game plan!

 

 

[VW82]

Bengals remain a big time match up problem for us. Until/if we can get a one tech to fill in for Daquan, big teams like the Bengals are going to control the LOS and keep Josh off the field. 
 

We also still have to play the Chiefs, Eagles, and Cowboys. Beane needs to act quickly or this season could be down the tubes real quick.

[Doc Brown]

5 hours ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

 

Vegas sharps are Vegas sharps because they see past things like momentum and which team won the matchup last year.

 No.  They usually use “momentum” or recency bias by the public to their advantage and bet the other side.  

3 hours ago, BuffaloBaumer said:

I have never bet on an NFL game but I think I have to for this one. My biggest fear is putting $500 down and then the Bills lose by 1

Mine is losing my whole family to some kind of terrible disaster.

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

17 minutes ago, Lionel Hutz said:

When was the last time the Bills were the betting underdogs?

 

Divisional game at Chiefs

[newcam2012]

3 hours ago, 90sBills said:

I took the Bengals too. This line is undervalued. Just like Bengals +5 against SF that I took a few days ago. If I’m wrong then the Bills have won and it’s more enjoyable on this board. If I’m right then I’d be a few bucks happier and this board will be…highly entertaining. 

I took the Bengals at plus 5  and Denver plus 8. 

 

I got real lucky taking the Bucs and the 10 points vs the Bills in Thursday. 

 

This week I'm 3-0. So a great week for me. Kicking myself for not taking the Chargers. They blow it so much I just get timid. 

 

I took the Lions tonight in a bounce back game. I took it early and I'm giving away 8.5 points to the Raiders. The line went down to 7.5. 

 

Good luck everyone. 

5 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

hope you lose

 

That's fair. As a Bills fan I hope I lose too. As a better I hope I win. Worst case scenario is if the Bengals win by 1 or 2.

[GoBills808]

so many posts about correctly wagering on past results

 

so few tickets shown

 

[Drew21PA]

-3 on fan duel

[Scott7975]

9 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Well I'm a small better and never bet too much. It's all relative. I bet $300. That's a lot for me. 

 

Comparatively to your other bets that is a lot for you.  You seem pretty proud to say you "hammered" the bet though and honestly to me that's pretty gross being proud to bet against your team.

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Comparatively to your other bets that is a lot for you.  You seem pretty proud to say you "hammered" the bet though and honestly to me that's pretty gross being proud to bet against your team.

betting against your team isn't the gross part, it's being proud of getting the bengals at -2.5 when it might easily cross 3 in a couple hrs lol

[Process]

7 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Comparatively to your other bets that is a lot for you.  You seem pretty proud to say you "hammered" the bet though and honestly to me that's pretty gross being proud to bet against your team.

He doesn't bet on anything he's a troll. I offered him money last year just to post a picture of one of his bets against the Bills and he refused. Troll.

[jethro_tull]

I still cringe at each of their last two cincy games.  I saw a blowout in the making until the stoppage in play from Damar's horrific injury.  

The playoff loss only made it worse.  

They did seem return to form against the 49ers too which made me think about what they could do against our current shell shocked defense.  

The Bills offense will need to be sharp because it may need to be a no punt outing for them to win it.  

Cincys offense looks so friggin simple though, hoping that McD in control can do a better job at stopping them.  

[newcam2012]

4 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Comparatively to your other bets that is a lot for you.  You seem pretty proud to say you "hammered" the bet though and honestly to me that's pretty gross being proud to bet against your team.

You have to be able to separate the two. Often it's not easy to do. It really not a knock against how I am a Bills fan or a loyalty issue. It's more about analyzing the facts and trusting your process.

 

I see this bet as being a very good bet. I think there's only a small difficult path for the Bills to win or Bengals not to cover. Nothing is a sure thing.

[newcam2012]

2 minutes ago, Process said:

He doesn't bet on anything he's a troll. I offered him money last year just to post a picture of one of his bets against the Bills and he refused. Troll.

I usually bet $25 to $50 dollars. No big deal. I lose more than I win, sometimes I get lucky.  

 

There are some people out there and probably on this board that bet a lot bigger. Everyone's budget and tolerance level is different. 

 

The betting amount doesn't equate to being more knowledgeable or more successful. I do try to weigh in the sharp money. 

[Mikie2times]

11 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

You have to be able to separate the two. Often it's not easy to do. It really not a knock against how I am a Bills fan or a loyalty issue. It's more about analyzing the facts and trusting your process.

 

I see this bet as being a very good bet. I think there's only a small difficult path for the Bills to win or Bengals not to cover. Nothing is a sure thing.

The Divisional game last year, I risked too much on the Bengals Moneyline. I did not find it to be worth the money. It impacted my enjoyment of the game (which obviously sucked, but it just felt off). I saw the opening line this week and again, felt like it was easy money. But I decided against it. 

 

I understand what you're saying. At the same time nothing wrong with just putting the team you love off limits even if you think you can make some money. 

Edited October 30, 2023 by Mikie2times

[Scott7975]

10 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

You have to be able to separate the two. Often it's not easy to do. It really not a knock against how I am a Bills fan or a loyalty issue. It's more about analyzing the facts and trusting your process.

 

I see this bet as being a very good bet. I think there's only a small difficult path for the Bills to win or Bengals not to cover. Nothing is a sure thing.

 

I don't need to separate anything. I don't gamble.  I used to professionally play poker.  I got away from that a long time ago.  You still sound overly happy to bet against your team when you need to come here to declare you hammered a bet.

[Mango]

12 hours ago, HIT BY SPIKES said:

Given the typical 3 points the Home Team gets and the Bengals are on a 3 game winning streak — beat @Cardinals, Seahawks and @49’ers — and the Bills have stumbled to victories recently, it seems Vegas sees the Bills in a more positive light than many here.

 

I tend to be an optimistic Bills fan however I don’t have a good feeling about Sunday Night’s game in Cincinnati.

 

What do you think Vegas is seeing that perhaps we are overlooking?

 

As of about 2 weeks ago, road teams actually had a winning record vs home teams. Unsure of how much that has shifted. But some sportsbooks have claimed that they are only giving home teams about -1.5 these days. 

[Big Turk]

4 hours ago, BuffaloBaumer said:

I have never bet on an NFL game but I think I have to for this one. My biggest fear is putting $500 down and then the Bills lose by 1

 

You would win if the line is Bengals -1.5, Bills would have to lose by 2 to lose that bet.

Edited October 30, 2023 by Big Turk

[TheFunPolice]

Bengals are a tough matchup for us.

 

the NFL is all about how teams match up. That's why Team A can blow out Team B one week then Team B wins the next week and Team A scores 10 points. 

 

For whatever reason, the Bengals players and schemes are tough for us to deal with. We match up well with the Dolphins, but the Bengals stifle us and seem to move the ball at will. 

 

Same with the Chiefs and Bengals. 

 

YET the Browns basically always beat the Bengals, and usually it's not close. 

 

Hopefully this Sunday we find the answer. 

[90sBills]

52 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

I took the Bengals at plus 5  and Denver plus 8. 

 

I got real lucky taking the Bucs and the 10 points vs the Bills in Thursday. 

 

This week I'm 3-0. So a great week for me. Kicking myself for not taking the Chargers. They blow it so much I just get timid. 

 

I took the Lions tonight in a bounce back game. I took it early and I'm giving away 8.5 points to the Raiders. The line went down to 7.5. 

 

We had a similar week. I started with the Bucs. Had Denver and Cincy. I did finished with the Chargers, luckily. But missed badly on Pitt and GB. Overall a great week though. 

50 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

so many posts about correctly wagering on past results

 

so few tickets shown

 

Yeah always a great idea to post personal items online. 

[GoBills808]

5 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

We had a similar week. I started with the Bucs. Had Denver and Cincy. I did finished with the Chargers, luckily. But missed badly on Pitt and GB. Overall a great week though. 

Yeah always a great idea to post personal items online. 

It's a receipt😂😂

[newcam2012]

21 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

I don't need to separate anything. I don't gamble.  I used to professionally play poker.  I got away from that a long time ago.  You still sound overly happy to bet against your team when you need to come here to declare you hammered a bet.

The "you" in my statement wasn't directed specifically at you. It was more a universal statement. I should have clarified that. Sorry. 

 

I'm always eager to pull the trigger on what I see as advantageous bets. I feel like the Bills vs Bengals game is just that. Of course, I can be incorrect and it's solely my opinion. 

 

 

[90sBills]

6 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

It's a receipt😂😂

I hear ya. It’ll be tough but I’ll try to live with some anonymous people not believing without seeing receipts.