Rumors swirling that Elam will be a scratch tonight for Norman. Trade coming?

[balln]

4 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Hmm...Rousseau is good...Oliver is good...AJE is far better than most want to admit...Bernard is a revelation...Benford has been good...Jackson has been good...Knox has been good...Davis has been good outside of people with unrealistic expectations...Torrance is going to be very good...Cook is good...

 

I mean we have already gone thru the draft charts showing Career AV for players drafted and the Bills are top 3 in the NFL. Not sure exactly how good you think other teams are at drafting but you are giving them far more credit than they should be getting, IMO.

here comes some Reality

 

roussea is an adequate starter. He will never be dominant or consistently impactful. Sure if the qb holds the ball for a long while then he’ll make a sack. He has zero bend and zero moves

 

AJE is a JaG. again only if qb hold ball long enough and he’s playing a weak tackle. He is absolutely brutally bad against the run. Setting edge and playing misdirection 

 

Knox and Davis are mediocre . Do not seperarte and drop way too many passes 

 

Torrence has been solid. But he still gives me cody ford vibes

 

cook is a sub back in the nfl bc he can’t pass block. They’ve been starting murray the last two weeks….

[boyst]

13 minutes ago, uticaclub said:

We are about to be in cap hell with nothing to show for it

no we aren't. it's a lot of fancy accounting. it's beyond my education and brainpower but the cap is basically fancy accounting and a select few in the world grasp it.

 

just like new orleans is always in cap hell but signs a lot of players - it's a lot of fancy accounting tricks.

[Nephilim17]

23 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

These are the things I have never understood from McBeane. We never get value on our rookie contracts. 

 

Moss (3rd), injured then trade. 

Basham (2nd), traded no production

AJE (2nd), barely anything of value until his contract year. 

Oliver (1st), minimal snap count until he was extended. Great value on his new contract, bad value on his rookie deal. 

Kincaid (1st), one game with reasonable targets/involvement

Cook (2nd), is averaging like 13 touches per game

Shakir (4th), plays barely any snaps and sees barely any targets

Hell, here is something crazy, Zay Jones has turned himself into a reasonable NFL WR and drafted the same year as Tre White. 

Let these guys play, learn, and grow. They all might not work, but Jesus. 

I've thought about the same thing, not getting value out of rookie deals.

Just because we resign a player we drafted, that doesn't mean we got value out of their rookie deal.

By the time we resign them, we are, for the most part, paying the regular free agent rate and we just as easily could have signed a non-drafted player at the same position for similar money. Yes, they "know the system" but if you're a vet, that's not a big deal.

"Rookie value" is predicated on our drafted players starting and excelling long before their second contract so we don't have to sign and pay too many second-deal veteran players.

Not happening enough in Buffalo.

Edited October 26, 2023 by Nephilim17

[uticaclub]

2 minutes ago, boyst said:

no we aren't. it's a lot of fancy accounting. it's beyond my education and brainpower but the cap is basically fancy accounting and a select few in the world grasp it.

 

just like new orleans is always in cap hell but signs a lot of players - it's a lot of fancy accounting tricks.

So what Beane is doing isn't that impressive if it's a common practice.

[Realist]

46 minutes ago, dpberr said:

Elam is this FO's worst pick to date because Elam excelled at man coverage in college.  

 

The risk that he would not develop into a zone corner was high from the moment he was selected.    I always felt the mistake was on the Bills for having the hubris that their coaching could transform him.  

 

 

He excelled in college at man coverage against college receivers. It appears obvious that he just can't handle the speed and route precision of NFL receivers. I don't know if that is scouting departments fault, coaching fault, or maybe he just could never make the jump to the next level. There are numerous college players drafted that are like that, even first rounders.

[Malazan]

I love the logic of this place

 

"McDermott won't play young guys over vets."

 

*Christian Benford enters the chat

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

Beane and the Scouting Department need to throw this out...

[Success]

11 minutes ago, balln said:

here comes some Reality

 

roussea is an adequate starter. He will never be dominant or consistently impactful. Sure if the qb holds the ball for a long while then he’ll make a sack. He has zero bend and zero moves

 

AJE is a JaG. again only if qb hold ball long enough and he’s playing a weak tackle. He is absolutely brutally bad against the run. Setting edge and playing misdirection 

 

Knox and Davis are mediocre . Do not seperarte and drop way too many passes 

 

Torrence has been solid. But he still gives me cody ford vibes

 

cook is a sub back in the nfl bc he can’t pass block. They’ve been starting murray the last two weeks….

 

These are one-dimensional, agenda-driven characterizations.  Little to no merit.

 

[Airseven]

31 minutes ago, balln said:

Diggs only good move. And they’re filling w expensive free agents

Also not drafting Rosen.

[Mango]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

Yeah...seems about right...trot a dude out for real game action for the first time in 9 months and then when he surprise, surprise sucks never play him again. It's not like Ridley is some bum, the dude was/is an elite receiver in the NFL.

 

Ingram can stand in the hole in perfect position to make a tackle on Etienne for a 2 yard gain and never touches him on the way to a 35 yard TD tho and that's cool right?  Don't bother to attempt a tackle and it's fine...as long as you don't try and then miss.

 

I just don't get this Bills team. 

Some of it is a culmination of a lot of issues. Rookie production/cap value, redrafting the same positions over and over and over, basically building a roster out of FA's, teams tend to flame out if they can't get over certain humps, etc. But there are some head scratching things.

 

Diggs crazy Offside a few weeks ago, that is a guy that is always locked in and he had no idea WTF was going on that play vs the NYG. 

 

Elam has had some good games. It isn't like he has flat out sucked at every opportunity. 

I think there are a lot of things going on at OBD from the FO, to coaching, and maybe even something else in the locker room? (Famous last words. Watch this team win 49-0). 

Edited October 26, 2023 by Mango

[BufBills83]

Most fans see what they want to see in a player or football in general (offense, defense), and any stats or evidence to the contrary to their pre-conceived notions are thrown out as irrelevant for no reason other than it goes against their opinion.  I just wish more fans would look at all of the data available and take it into consideration along with their own opinions and then form a more education one, instead of just "this guy is trash" because he played a couple bad games.

[John from Riverside]

1 hour ago, WotAGuy said:

Do the Bucs have anybody that can throw a stiff arm? Cos I feel one coming on. 

Let’s be honest here Henry is not your average kind of Stiff arm

1 hour ago, wppete said:

Another Beane failure. 

Can we list the beane  failures?

[eball]

A trade for Elam?  Do the Bills need a bag of donuts?

[Realist]

1 minute ago, eball said:

A trade for Elam?  Do the Bills need a bag of donuts?

C'mon, who couldn't use a bag of donuts?

 

[The Wiz]

Just now, eball said:

A trade for Elam?  Do the Bills need a bag of donuts?

McD is trying to get them to throw in a box of raisin bran also.

[Big Turk]

18 minutes ago, balln said:

here comes some Reality

 

roussea is an adequate starter. He will never be dominant or consistently impactful. Sure if the qb holds the ball for a long while then he’ll make a sack. He has zero bend and zero moves

 

AJE is a JaG. again only if qb hold ball long enough and he’s playing a weak tackle. He is absolutely brutally bad against the run. Setting edge and playing misdirection 

 

Knox and Davis are mediocre . Do not seperarte and drop way too many passes 

 

Torrence has been solid. But he still gives me cody ford vibes

 

cook is a sub back in the nfl bc he can’t pass block. They’ve been starting murray the last two weeks….

 

Rousseau is elite in setting the edge and run defending and has the ability to take over games.

 

This simply shows once you see something happen initially, you have no basis for being able to see changes.  Knox hasn't "dropped too many passes" in over 2 years.  His catch % is actually on par or higher than Kelce, Andrews and Kittle over the last 2 years at 69% and 73.5%.  He is a Red Zone weapon. The dude scored TDs like 6 straight weeks last year. He is far more than mediocre.  

 

Cook's pass blocking has been brutal, I can't deny that, but lots of young backs are not great at that and take some time to develop in that area.  Cook has been dynamic when he gets the ball in his hands tho.  

[Donuts and Doritos]

This is what you'll get for him:

 

[Draconator]

 

11 minutes ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

Beane and the Scouting Department need to throw this out...

Gotta think some kind of blockbuster with multiple players is on the horizon. This post is proof. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 minute ago, eball said:

A trade for Elam?  Do the Bills need a bag of donuts?

 

You can get that same bag of donuts in 2024.  Doesn't make a lick of sense to trade him this season as it would increase his cap hit for this year, same as cutting him.  You'd be off the hook for guaranteed salary, but the bonus front loads up to 5.35M.  

[boyst]

18 minutes ago, uticaclub said:

So what Beane is doing isn't that impressive if it's a common practice.

it's not common practice. look at how teams are being run and not doing so well. a lot depends on your owner being cash strapped.

 

look at carolina, atlanta, cleveland, detroit. all have similar rosters to us and have been failing as an organization.

[John from Riverside]

29 minutes ago, balln said:

here comes some Reality

 

roussea is an adequate starter. He will never be dominant or consistently impactful. Sure if the qb holds the ball for a long while then he’ll make a sack. He has zero bend and zero moves

 

AJE is a JaG. again only if qb hold ball long enough and he’s playing a weak tackle. He is absolutely brutally bad against the run. Setting edge and playing misdirection 

 

Knox and Davis are mediocre . Do not seperarte and drop way too many passes 

 

Torrence has been solid. But he still gives me cody ford vibes

 

cook is a sub back in the nfl bc he can’t pass block. They’ve been starting murray the last two weeks….

Greg starting to get to that double digit realm as a rotational player

 

try again

[HappyDays]

Remember last year when we elevated Xavier Rhodes for one game and made Elam inactive, and Rhodes predictably looked like crap in his limited action? Then late in the season Elam looked like by far our best CB and made several game changing plays including a game winning INT in the playoffs?

 

I have no reason to believe this coaching staff knows what it is doing with this move. Just blindly throwing darts at the wall.

 

Edited October 26, 2023 by HappyDays

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Roundybout said:

Cover1 had it first, then saw this report that Josh Norman is gonna be activated tonight: 

 

https://x.com/thebillsguys/status/1717597828724531307?s=46&t=RLsRhQJBb5vROsgfJWkwSw

 

If it’s true you have to think that’s the end of Elam here. A colossal waste and I’m not really happy with how we handled him at all. 

@HappyDays had it first. Cover1 just reads TBD. Hack job.

[jwhit34]

I'm not a salary cap wizard, but per Spotrac the dead cap number for Elam in '23 is $11.2 million. If he's traded they are responsible for at least the unamortized part of the signing bonus which would be almost $5.4 million. I think the total guaranteed money comes into play too and that may raise the dead cap number some more. 

 

Trading him would be challenging from a cap perspective. 

 

No team bats 1.000 on 1st rounders. White, Allen, Edmunds, Oliver, trading pick for Diggs, Rousseau and Kincaid all have been good. If you count Diggs as a hit, this regime is 7 for 8  or .875 with White, Rousseau and Kincaid (and Elam) being picks in the 20s. 

[BillsShredder83]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

But yet in the Ravens game he was so good in zone that someone who breaks down game film for a living asked if Elam was a natural zone corner because the technique he was playing with was so good and so fluid...he also baited Jackson into an INT in that game by reading his eyes when he was in Cover 2 and sinking back to the deep receiver to pick him off. 

 

Two weeks later he picked off Mahomes in the end zone when he was inside the 10 yard line about to score...it hasn't been all bad.

 

Where did it all go wrong?  We can't say he sucked at zone because a guy who breaks down film for a living showed multiple examples of him playing it perfectly.

Who we talking about? Genuinely asking... Cover1?

[Riverboat Ritchie]

The Elam pick and way he has or has not been developed is infuriating. 

[HamSandwhich]

Anyone know about this guy? Rumor - Derrick Henry to Bills?

Edited October 26, 2023 by HamSandwhich

[Logic]

Beane's philosophy with 1st round picks has pretty much always been to take big swings at supremely physically gifted athletes and trust that his coaching staff will develop them into quality pros.

Sometimes it works: Josh Allen, Greg Rousseau

Sometimes it doesn't: Tremaine Edmunds, Kaiir Elam

 

No team hits on 100% of their 1st round draft picks. No one. 

Yes, the Elam pick was a whiff. No, there's no spinning it any other way. But no, it doesn't need to be some huge indictment on the GM or the coaches. Sometimes, players bust. It happens. It's part of football.

Beane and the coaching staff helped limit the pain of the Elam pick by finding, drafting, and developing Christian Benford. Yes, you'd rather that the Elam pick had hit as well, but it didn't. That's life. That's the draft. Let's not turn simple arithmetic into complex algebra. You win some, you lose some.

Edited October 26, 2023 by Logic

[PatsFanNH]

5 minutes ago, jwhit34 said:

I'm not a salary cap wizard, but per Spotrac the dead cap number for Elam in '23 is $11.2 million. If he's traded they are responsible for at least the unamortized part of the signing bonus which would be almost $5.4 million. I think the total guaranteed money comes into play too and that may raise the dead cap number some more. 

 

Trading him would be challenging from a cap perspective. 

 

No team bats 1.000 on 1st rounders. White, Allen, Edmunds, Oliver, trading pick for Diggs, Rousseau and Kincaid all have been good. If you count Diggs as a hit, this regime is 7 for 8  or .875 with White, Rousseau and Kincaid (and Elam) being picks in the 20s. 

Diggs was a wash IMO you have him or Jefferson. (Assuming the Bills would have drafted their #1 WR of course) 

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

19 minutes ago, Draconator said:

 

Gotta think some kind of blockbuster with multiple players is on the horizon. This post is proof. 

Yes

No

Goodbye

[HomeskillitMoorman]

Who would want to trade for Elam though? Is there a need for corners that can't cover?

[TheWeatherMan]

49 minutes ago, dorquemada said:

 

Feeling confident about the Bills D are we?

No, but Aaron Rodgers is on IR because of the Bills D.  So…I hope the Bills D makes Baker Mayfield look like Aaron Rodgers because he played one snap and went on IR.  Get it? 

[pigpen65]

Wonder what the story is with Elam. McD hates him 

[Mango]

42 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

But yet they lead the NFL in net point differential by a wide margin over a 3 year span.  Let that sink in for a minute.  All of these terrible picks and players and yet they have been the best team in the NFL by a wide margin over a 3 year period.  

 

Here is an interesting stat, in terms of draft pick retention from 2019-2022, the Bills fall right in the middle. A lot of complicated things are involved in this metric. Unsure on it's value. 

 

https://overthecap.com/draft-retention-rates-in-2022

 

As somebody who thinks we build the team with too many FA's I tend to see this as a little bit of an issues. Not that Beane has been terrible, but I don't think he has been remarkable either. We just seem to keep drafting the same positions high over and over. RB in the top 100 3 times. 3 DE's in the top 100 3 times. At the end of We are likely to only have 2 of those players on the 2024 roster. Look for a 4th maybe 5th top 100 DE in the next draft. 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[RyanC883]

was odd drafting a press corner in a defense that plays a lot of zone.  That said, McD should have been able to use him in zone schemes or use him to play man.  He also played very well in the playoffs last year.   This goes down as another round 1 head scratcher.     

5 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

Here is an interesting stat, in terms of draft pick retention from 2019-2022, the Bills fall right in the middle. A lot of complicated things are involved in this metric. Unsure on it's value. 

 

https://overthecap.com/draft-retention-rates-in-2022

 

As somebody who thinks we build the team with too many FA's I tend to see this as a little bit of an issues. Not that Beane has been terrible, but I don't think he has been remarkable either. We just seem to keep drafting the same positions high over and over. RB in the top 100 3 times. 3 DE's in the top 100 3 times. At the end of We are likely to only have 2 of those players on the 2024 roster. Look for a 4th maybe 5th top 100 DE in the next draft. 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes we do and it's maddening.  Basham right after Groot, why?  Humphry sitting RIGHT THERE.  It's like, "well, one of these should hit."  Then get rid of Moss, who, shocker, looks good on another team with a real OL, then draft another RB.  

[TheWeatherMan]

11 minutes ago, HomeskillitMoorman said:

Who would want to trade for Elam though? Is there a need for corners that can't cover?

The same teams that thought there was a need for OL that can’t block (Teller) and can’t find a hole (Moss).  

[uticaclub]

30 minutes ago, boyst said:

it's not common practice. look at how teams are being run and not doing so well. a lot depends on your owner being cash strapped.

 

look at carolina, atlanta, cleveland, detroit. all have similar rosters to us and have been failing as an organization.

So because of Terry’s deep pocket? Again, nothing that is outstanding from Beane

[Bangarang]

Elam ended up being a big whiff for BB

[Charles Romes]

McD is writing his ticket out of Buffalo if this is true 

[balln]

47 minutes ago, Success said:

 

These are one-dimensional, agenda-driven characterizations.  Little to no merit.

 

That is blind denial from rose colored glass wearing homer fandom