We ever gonna use Kincaid ?

[Big Blitz]

Change Kincaid’s name to Beasley in the box score and maybe it will make sense for some.   
 

That’s how he’s being used.  Allen only threw 25 passes today and we scored 48 points.    
 

We haven’t been in a dogfight for 4 quarters since week 1.  Maybe Washington but I felt like we played conservative being on the road and the D dominated and no need to force anything.   
 

I feel like a lot of Kincaid needs more targets folks have him in Fantasy Leagues.  
 

Right now he’s ok for fantasy.  But he’s great for the Bills.   

[Stenbar]

Kincaid was used early for a purpose, he was to loosen up the front seven a bit, once that was achieved the run game was smooth, wr's were open and more plays were made because he was used early and needed to be accounted for.

[Motorin']

8 hours ago, NickelCity said:

I had high expectations for Kincaid and I think he'll live up to them, this season. 

 

Look at our passing attempts per game (25 today?), allens ball distribution, and the running game. Plus being a TE in 12 formation. C'mon folks. 

 

Kincaid's on pace for 65 receptions. And his targets will likely increase as the season goes on. 

[Franco_92]

8 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

That JAG has 8 touchdowns in 4 games.

And Jamaal Williams led the league in TDs on the same team in the same role. What's he done so far this year? 

 

JAG doesn't mean "bad player" either, it just means "typical player." Most RBs have good traits, Montgomery is no different. But bruiser RBs running behind the best run blocking line in the league will get TDs in the red zone, and that doesn't mean it's smart to use a 12th overall pick on a running back and staple him to the bench all season 

[Gambit]

8 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

That JAG has 8 touchdowns in 4 games.

Where are you getting 8? Looks like he's got 5TDs in 3 games.

[Mr. WEO]

12 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:

Not to mention Kelce didnt even play his rookie season.  Kincaid's catch ratio is over 95%.  Completely agree, people need to calm down.

 

Not very meaningful--to be honest, he's catching Allen's shortest passes (2.7 yards in the air before caught).  

[BearNorth]

After that "Beast Mode" exhibition yesterday, don't forget about Knox.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

8 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Not very meaningful--to be honest, he's catching Allen's shortest passes (2.7 yards in the air before caught).  

 

The goal is to make the matchup have to tackle a big 250 pound dude, hes got enough strength and wiggle to break a 1x1 tackle and turn 2.7 yards into a few extra yards.  They haven't utilized him much over the middle of the field yet, and have mostly kept him to boundary checkdowns which he has pulled in.  

[thenorthremembers]

51 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Not very meaningful--to be honest, he's catching Allen's shortest passes (2.7 yards in the air before caught).  

If he was dropping them would it be meaningful?

[MAJBobby]

Kincaid and Knox where MEANINGFUL Sunday.  Might not show in the stat lines.

 

But their 12 personnel was enough of a threat that the Fins did not put a safety over top of their NB covering Diggs 1v1 because respected Kincaid and Knox to eat in the middle.

[ddaryl]

I think Kincaid is all that and a bag of chips. Doing exactly what I thought he would be doing and doing it well

 

[BullBuchanan]

2 hours ago, arcane said:

And Jamaal Williams led the league in TDs on the same team in the same role. What's he done so far this year?

He's been on IR...

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

The goal is to make the matchup have to tackle a big 250 pound dude, hes got enough strength and wiggle to break a 1x1 tackle and turn 2.7 yards into a few extra yards.  They haven't utilized him much over the middle of the field yet, and have mostly kept him to boundary checkdowns which he has pulled in.  

 

whoever he's matching up with seems to be getting right up on him.  they need to send him downfield.

58 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

If he was dropping them would it be meaningful?

 

obviously.

 

not many receivers are going to have a lot of drops 2 steps beyond the line of scrimmage though...

[BullBuchanan]

2 hours ago, Gambit said:

Where are you getting 8? Looks like he's got 5TDs in 3 games.

They played a 4th game yesterday and he had 3.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

6 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

whoever he's matching up with seems to be getting right up on him.  they need to send him downfield.

 

obviously.

 

not many receivers are going to have a lot of drops 2 steps beyond the line of scrimmage though...

 

He still manages to wrangle an extra yard or two that a beasley likely doesn't get.  That makes 3rd down something like 3-4 yards instead of 5-7.  

 

Those quick outs are impossible to defend with his enormous catch radius, and it can force the linebacker into compromising his run fits.  

[Captain Caveman]

15 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:

Not sure what people wanted for a late 1st round pick.  He is doing just fine.

 

I think you don't use a late (or any) first round pick on a position where you already have a $13 million dollar starter unless you expect them to be GREAT.  

 

Hopefully he develops into that, but I think it's fair to be disappointed in his usage so far.

1 hour ago, MAJBobby said:

Kincaid and Knox where MEANINGFUL Sunday.  Might not show in the stat lines.

 

But their 12 personnel was enough of a threat that the Fins did not put a safety over top of their NB covering Diggs 1v1 because respected Kincaid and Knox to eat in the middle.

I do think this is a great point - 

The Bills offense is humming, and Kincaid has been heavily involved in terms of snap count and targets, so even if it's not showing on the stat sheet, it's hard to be too mad about things.

[Mr. WEO]

12 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

He still manages to wrangle an extra yard or two that a beasley likely doesn't get.  That makes 3rd down something like 3-4 yards instead of 5-7.  

 

Those quick outs are impossible to defend with his enormous catch radius, and it can force the linebacker into compromising his run fits.  

 

Not true so far.

 

Beasley's YBC in his first t2 seasons were 6.7 and 7.5.  His YAC were 4.9 and 4.3.  37 and 53 1st downs.

 

Kincaid's are 3.1 and 3.5.  2 1st downs so far. 

[Teddy KGB]

Kincaid > Lee Smith 

[gonzo1105]

You have to remember that Kincaid is being asked to do a ton. Learn a very complex pass scheme structure and he has to learn the blocking schemes, and really learn to block in general since he was rarely asked to do that at Utah. 

 

I know people want to see the guy in the college tape but Knox and him along with the guards are making a world of difference in the run game for starters. He is then being used as a weapon underneath which showed yesterday early. He has a ton of receptions just not a lot of big plays yet but they will come, I promise you that as he gets everything down that he is asked to do. 

[thenorthremembers]

15 minutes ago, Captain Caveman said:

 

I think you don't use a late (or any) first round pick on a position where you already have a $13 million dollar starter unless you expect them to be GREAT.  

 

Hopefully he develops into that, but I think it's fair to be disappointed in his usage so far.

I do think this is a great point - 

The Bills offense is humming, and Kincaid has been heavily involved in terms of snap count and targets, so even if it's not showing on the stat sheet, it's hard to be too mad about things.

Thats only if he plays the same position as the $13 million dollar player, which he doesnt.   Yes, they are both tight ends, but they dont play the same position they have different uses.    Call it what you want in 12 personnel, but Knox is the normal on the ball tight end (Y in some playbooks), meanwhile Kincaid is your off the ball split tight end (F or even H in some playbooks). 

 

The Bills would be complete idiots to draft someone with the exact same position as Knox.   I'll take it a step further to say that NFL front offices have a much different view of players they draft than fans.  Fans are impacted by the media when it comes to the draft.  The brand new great player, the savior of the franchise etc.   I would expect teams, especially those picking in the 20's are just following their draft boards and hoping the person they bring in can help the team early on and then maybe develop into a star later after they have experience.

 

Expecting a player fresh out of college, drafted #25th overall, to come in and be GREAT, is a pipe dream and something that only leads to disappointment.  Its a marathon not a sprint.  

43 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

whoever he's matching up with seems to be getting right up on him.  they need to send him downfield.

 

obviously.

 

not many receivers are going to have a lot of drops 2 steps beyond the line of scrimmage though...

 

My point is, Kincaid cant control the routes he is asked to run, or how deep he is when Josh throws him the ball.   He is doing the portion of his job he can control to 95% percent efficiency.    If you are going to measure a receiving option on how often he drops the ball, you sure as hell better also measure them on how often they catch it, regardless of things he cant control.

 

 

[gonzo1105]

4 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

Thats only if he plays the same position as the $13 million dollar player, which he doesnt.   Yes, they are both tight ends, but they dont play the same position they have different uses.    Call it what you want in 12 personnel, but Knox is the normal on the ball tight end (Y in some playbooks), meanwhile Kincaid is your off the ball split tight end (F or even H in some playbooks). 

 

The Bills would be complete idiots to draft someone with the exact same position as Knox.   I'll take it a step further to say that NFL front offices have a much different view of players they draft than fans.  Fans are impacted by the media when it comes to the draft.  The brand new great player, the savior of the franchise etc.   I would expect teams, especially those picking in the 20's are just following their draft boards and hoping the person they bring in can help the team early on and then maybe develop into a star later after they have experience.

 

Expecting a player fresh out of college, drafted #25th overall, to come in and be GREAT, is a pipe dream and something that only leads to disappointment.  Its a marathon not a sprint.  

 

My point is, Kincaid cant control the routes he is asked to run, or how deep he is when Josh throws him the ball.   He is doing the portion of his job he can control to 95% percent efficiency.    If you are going to measure a receiving option on how often he drops the ball, you sure as hell better also measure them on how often they catch it, regardless of things he cant control.

 

 

 

I appreciate this post if nothing more than to highlight a guy who clearly understands the game of football beyond the common fan. I can't stand guys who make claims yet can't articulate the game beyond well two TE's, one makin a lot means the other isn't gonna do certain things that I expected him to do. 

[Captain Caveman]

24 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

Thats only if he plays the same position as the $13 million dollar player, which he doesnt.   Yes, they are both tight ends, but they dont play the same position they have different uses.    Call it what you want in 12 personnel, but Knox is the normal on the ball tight end (Y in some playbooks), meanwhile Kincaid is your off the ball split tight end (F or even H in some playbooks). 

 

The Bills would be complete idiots to draft someone with the exact same position as Knox.   I'll take it a step further to say that NFL front offices have a much different view of players they draft than fans.  Fans are impacted by the media when it comes to the draft.  The brand new great player, the savior of the franchise etc.   I would expect teams, especially those picking in the 20's are just following their draft boards and hoping the person they bring in can help the team early on and then maybe develop into a star later after they have experience.

 

Expecting a player fresh out of college, drafted #25th overall, to come in and be GREAT, is a pipe dream and something that only leads to disappointment.  Its a marathon not a sprint.  

 

My point is, Kincaid cant control the routes he is asked to run, or how deep he is when Josh throws him the ball.   He is doing the portion of his job he can control to 95% percent efficiency.    If you are going to measure a receiving option on how often he drops the ball, you sure as hell better also measure them on how often they catch it, regardless of things he cant control.

 

 

 

1. We agree on Kincaid playing a different role - the consensus was that he would play more of a receiving role and hopefully be a downfield threat.  That's hasn't materialized so far.  I don't think it's his fault.  Which leads me to 

 

Kincaid cant control the routes he is asked to run

 

2. Yeah, exactly.  I don't think many have a problem with Kincaid, it's with his usage.  I think it's a little fair to be disappointed that he hasn't really had any targets downfield.

 

With that said, I also think it's a fair point that we are 2nd in the league in scoring and Kincaid is playing a significant role.

Edited October 2, 2023 by Captain Caveman

[k2mountain]

Kincaid:

 

5 targets, 4 receptions, 27 yards. He moved the chains when asked to.

 

...and who knows what kind blocking he was asked to do.

 

He's doing well and has bigger days in the future. I'm satisfied.

[thenorthremembers]

1 hour ago, Captain Caveman said:

 

1. We agree on Kincaid playing a different role - the consensus was that he would play more of a receiving role and hopefully be a downfield threat.  That's hasn't materialized so far.  I don't think it's his fault.  Which leads me to 

 

Kincaid cant control the routes he is asked to run

 

2. Yeah, exactly.  I don't think many have a problem with Kincaid, it's with his usage.  I think it's a little fair to be disappointed that he hasn't really had any targets downfield.

 

With that said, I also think it's a fair point that we are 2nd in the league in scoring and Kincaid is playing a significant role.

I think this is all fair.   Just have to remember its incredibly early.  There were two instances yesterday where Josh had to put Dalton in the right place while he was lining up.   If you go back its actually audible at one point where Josh says "Hey Dalton, over here." 

 

As Kincaid gets further acclimated to the offense I think you'll see him run deeper routes.  It will all come down to how comfortable both Allen and Dorsey are with giving Kincaid that sort of responsibility.  

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, thenorthremembers said:

Thats only if he plays the same position as the $13 million dollar player, which he doesnt.   Yes, they are both tight ends, but they dont play the same position they have different uses.    Call it what you want in 12 personnel, but Knox is the normal on the ball tight end (Y in some playbooks), meanwhile Kincaid is your off the ball split tight end (F or even H in some playbooks). 

 

The Bills would be complete idiots to draft someone with the exact same position as Knox.   I'll take it a step further to say that NFL front offices have a much different view of players they draft than fans.  Fans are impacted by the media when it comes to the draft.  The brand new great player, the savior of the franchise etc.   I would expect teams, especially those picking in the 20's are just following their draft boards and hoping the person they bring in can help the team early on and then maybe develop into a star later after they have experience.

 

Expecting a player fresh out of college, drafted #25th overall, to come in and be GREAT, is a pipe dream and something that only leads to disappointment.  Its a marathon not a sprint.  

 

My point is, Kincaid cant control the routes he is asked to run, or how deep he is when Josh throws him the ball.   He is doing the portion of his job he can control to 95% percent efficiency.    If you are going to measure a receiving option on how often he drops the ball, you sure as hell better also measure them on how often they catch it, regardless of things he cant control.

 

 

 

This is true for any receiver.  The fact that these are the only routes they ask him to run suggests that the OC isn't seeing him the way you would like.

 

As for efficiency, it is more properly measured in actual outcome per touch/target (yards per, 1st downs, TDs), not by how many short gain passes you didn't drop. 

 

Based on the average outcome per touch, Kincaid is 6th among all receivers with at least 5 targets.

 

They need to send him farther past the LOS...

 

 

 

1 hour ago, Captain Caveman said:

 

1. We agree on Kincaid playing a different role - the consensus was that he would play more of a receiving role and hopefully be a downfield threat.  That's hasn't materialized so far.  I don't think it's his fault.  Which leads me to 

 

Kincaid cant control the routes he is asked to run

 

2. Yeah, exactly.  I don't think many have a problem with Kincaid, it's with his usage.  I think it's a little fair to be disappointed that he hasn't really had any targets downfield.

 

With that said, I also think it's a fair point that we are 2nd in the league in scoring and Kincaid is playing a significant role.

 

As a blocker more so.

[LabattBlue]

I have to believe that at some point this season Kincaid will be used for more than just...run 5 yards, stop, catch ball, get tackled.  He has too many skills to just be wasted as a Pete Metzelaars replica.

[Dr.Sack]

If he beats coverage he will get targeted. 

[syhuang]

 

 

[Prospector]

I really liked the one catch Kincaid had over the middle where he caught the ball and immediately turned inside to go up field... the defender had no chance to stop his momentum that fast. 

[ColoradoBills]

On 10/1/2023 at 10:26 PM, ColoradoBills said:

 

If you walked into OBD talking like this, they would laugh you out of the building.

 

The Bills offense is averaging 35 points a game and you want them to average 26.5 like Detroit and change their scheme to beat rookie TE stats?

Is that your "standard"?  Because if it is, it's a pretty myopic one.

 

LOL, rookie TE stats after 4 games.  You're critiquing on a message board and Kincaid is partying at Josh Allen's house celebrating.

 

Eyeroll all you want @MPT, it's true.

[Eastport bills]

Kincaid is perfect for this team. He’s tough and has incredible hands and catch radius. Before too long, you will see him running slot receiver routes(shallow crossers, seem routes) and TE screens. As teams try to take Diggs(double teams)and Cook away with heavy boxes, Kincaid will be targeted with quick throws and watch him getting plenty of YAK. What a great addition.

[DJB]

The good news is that he’s making the most of his opportunities when he gets them. He’s sure handed and moves really well. He gives me a ton of confidence he’s going to catch the ball every time Josh throws it to him.

 

He will see more targets  as the season progresses 

[finn]

On 10/2/2023 at 1:38 PM, thenorthremembers said:

I think this is all fair.   Just have to remember its incredibly early.  There were two instances yesterday where Josh had to put Dalton in the right place while he was lining up.   If you go back its actually audible at one point where Josh says "Hey Dalton, over here." 

Did you see him run into his own man and both of them fall down. It's at 2:45 of the breakdown below. I wouldn't look for much from Kincaid until next year, or at least the latter part of the season. 

 

[fergie's ire]

I do find the reaction to Kincaid's usage to be odd.  We keep hearing over and over again that Josh needs to stop playing hero ball.  He needs to take the short safe passes.  Well, if you send EVERYONE 40 yards down field there will be nobody there when Josh throws it short.  Furthermore, those throws are only safe if there is someone there who will actually catch the ball.  How many times did we see a "safe" pass bounce off McKenzie's chest?  We needed someone with really sure hands who could catch the underneath stuff and allow the offense to methodically move the chains.  That's why he was drafted and that is what he is done.  He is playing his role perfectly.  Might that role be expanded as he gains experience and defenses start keying on the short routes?  Sure.  But for now he is perfect for this offense.

[Rubes]

Sure, it would be awesome if Kincaid were ripping it up this early in the season and his career. The way I see it, our coaches are taking the long view.

 

Just like OCs design strategies and run plays early in a game in order to set things up for later in the game, they also design strategies to develop players (and schemes) over the entire season. We have a complex, complicated offense that takes players a while to integrate. For rookies, even more so. Seems to me that Dorsey is introducing new concepts into the offense with two TEs, giving Kincaid bits and pieces to start with and building his confidence slowly over several games. Even now, Kincaid has occasional struggles with what he is assigned, so it’s a slow process.

 

I sense the goal is to reach the second half/last quarter of the season with Kincaid gradually doing more and more and really opening things up for the offense in ways that other teams will not have seen and won’t have on film.

 

And next year…

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

On 10/2/2023 at 9:06 AM, thenorthremembers said:

Thats only if he plays the same position as the $13 million dollar player, which he doesnt.   Yes, they are both tight ends, but they dont play the same position they have different uses.    Call it what you want in 12 personnel, but Knox is the normal on the ball tight end (Y in some playbooks), meanwhile Kincaid is your off the ball split tight end (F or even H in some playbooks). 

 

 

I'm not sure this is accurate. If you go back and watch the week 2 and week 4 targets that Kincaid got against the Raiders and Dolphins respectively, his two biggest games in terms of targets and receptions thus far, an interesting thing pops out. Against the Raiders all of but one of Kincaid's six targets came when he was playing on the line. Often, Knox was also on the line on the same play. 

 

Then against Miami the script was flipped. All of Kincaid's targets came from him being in the slot. And oddly enough Knox, if he was on the field, was also in the slot on all of Kincaid's catches. 

 

It seems to me that Dorsey wants Kincaid and Knox to be 100% interchangeable. This would seem wise as it does not tip the hat to what the offense or either player might do on any given play. 

[BillsShredder83]

On 10/2/2023 at 11:56 AM, gonzo1105 said:

You have to remember that Kincaid is being asked to do a ton. Learn a very complex pass scheme structure and he has to learn the blocking schemes, and really learn to block in general since he was rarely asked to do that at Utah. 

 

I know people want to see the guy in the college tape but Knox and him along with the guards are making a world of difference in the run game for starters. He is then being used as a weapon underneath which showed yesterday early. He has a ton of receptions just not a lot of big plays yet but they will come, I promise you that as he gets everything down that he is asked to do. 

Id argue that we're using him perfectly FOR WHERE HES AT. tight end is arguably the hardest position to pick up from college to the pros, and hes being asked to do things he didnt do at Utah, and doing them well actually.

 

Right now while his head is spinning, getting him the ball early, make the defense account for him... teams dont know how we intend to use him, dont know where his development is. So the threat is there, and that threat is opening up the run game/Diggs..... all while hes brought up to speed for later in the year when we need him.

 

I have no doubt we plan to use him in a larger role this year, but in the mean time... letting him learn the harder stuff on the fly, things we dont want him trying to learn when the games mean more. if were rolling teams, keep him learning the harder stuff... and if we get into a dog fight, then we can let him take a break from the hard stuff and fill that role he already knows.

[mjt328]

There are only so many balls to go around.

No matter what, fans are going to find someone getting "disappointing" levels of production.

 

- The standard has been set with Stefon Diggs to get around 10 targets per game.  If that number were to go down, people would be using it as ammo to say there really is a rift between him and Josh Allen.

- Gabe Davis is in a contract year trying to prove he's our long-term answer as the #2.  Especially after a disappointing 2022.  If he doesn't have enough production, the talk will continue about trading for Mike Evans or how we failed to sign DeAndre Hopkins.

- Dawson Knox is getting paid like a Top 10 Tight End in the NFL.  Not just to be a blocker.  If he's not getting enough targets and production, people are going to criticize Beane giving him an extension.

- Our shiny new 1st Round Pick in Dalton Kincaid was supposed to become our version of Travis Kelce.  Why isn't he on-pace for a 1,000 yard rookie season.  He must be a bust, or Dorsey doesn't know how to use him. 

- Not to mention a renewed focus on the running game, which itself has three guys worthy of getting the ball.  

 

[Teddy KGB]

Bill Simmons on LaPorta 

 

He kinda looks like Gronk out there 

 

 

[JoeF]

Sunday was the first game this season I have watched end to end and it was live...coaching fall baseball has gotten in the way(For another thread)

 

Kincaid has taken most of the short yardage slot routes Beasely used to run.  He's really doing a good job with this limited route tree and his size, power and shifty running get the Bills two or three extra yards most plays.  He will break one for another 15 yards or so in the next couple of games.

 

Other players, including Diggs are taking the longer slot routes.  Gabe Davis' touchdown against the Phins was from the inside on a great route combination with the outside receiver for example.  I also believe Kincaid will get a more complex route tree with higher depth routes over the course of the season.

 

I like the way they are using Kincaid and think his role only gets progressively greater from here.