We're on to Cincinnati(Bengals coming to OP). Sunday 1/22 at 3pm. Opening Line Bills -5

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Chris Simms is getting more and more unhinged lol Davis was terrorizing the dolphins.  Bills receivers were beating their man all game long. Just barely missed out on like 200 extra yards and 2+ more tds. 

If the dolphins weren’t scared of the bills receivers, they should have been 😂. They were very lucky to not lose that game by 20+ 

 

someone should probably tell him that the Vikings who have many scary wrs lost to the giants who have 0 scary wrs too haha 

 

 

We signed two WRs off the street that nobody else wanted and gave them both a good amount of snaps. That is proof enough that Chris Simms is right. Teams have figured out if you bracket Diggs the other weapons aren't consistently stepping up. The offense is mostly just Josh Allen making magic happen, that has been Chris Simms' point all year long. Hard to argue with him.

[Beck Water]

5 minutes ago, CorkScrewHill said:

injury report .. overall looking good .. hopefully it will remain so ...

 

 

 

 

Keep in mind it was a "walkthrough" and we saw a scary change last week

[Big Turk]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

We signed two WRs off the street that nobody else wanted and gave them both a good amount of snaps. That is proof enough that Chris Simms is right. Teams have figured out if you bracket Diggs the other weapons aren't consistently stepping up. The offense is mostly just Josh Allen making magic happen, that has been Chris Simms' point all year long. Hard to argue with him.

 

Who scares teams outside of Kelce in KC? Nobody.

1 minute ago, Beck Water said:

 

Keep in mind it was a "walkthrough" and we saw a scary change last week

 

If we lose DaQuan for any of these games we are f**ked. He is the best DL against the run and is a very underrated pass rusher as well.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

On the fumble machine thing, I put up data on this partly through the season where I characterized each fumble as QB/C exchange, strip sack, or fumble while running.  At that time, the majority of Josh's fumbles were on QB-C exchange or strip sacks.  So unless you have data that differs for the last 3-4 games, your characterization of Josh as a "fumble machine" when he runs has been wrong to date.  That said, I don't like the way Josh holds the ball when he runs, either.

 

TL;DR for what follows: the problem with an immensely physically talented QB like Josh who can actually make all these plays, is that you can't just get in his grill and yell "stop doing this, always do that instead" without limiting or removing his special play ability.  Instead, it's about refining and molding his decision making, and that's much harder and takes more time.

 

Kurt Warner did an interesting interview with Brown and Tasker where he talked about how as a QB, he had no option but to learn to read the D and make correct, fast decisions because he simply couldn't make the special, Unicorn plays Josh makes.  He  points out that as a HOF QB, he threw a lot of turnovers and that if you're an aggressive QB who pushes the ball down the field, he believes you will make more good plays than bad so turnovers don't bother him so much.  That said, he talks about how he thinks it's hard to for a QB to live in a place where he has to make 15-20 special plays per game and that to be successful against the best defenses in the playoffs, a successful playoff QB has to be able to see and take the layups and maybe make 4-5 special plays per game.  He says he believes the offense in Buffalo is a good solid system (that would support Josh playing "in system" more).  He talks about how he'd like to see Josh play more in system in the red zone and not feel that he needs to run around and create so much.  He acknowledges that he was NOT one of the guys who can do all the special stuff that Josh can do, so he doesn't fully understand that mindset, but he says that one reason Mahomes and Allen are so special is that they CAN do both things well (play in system as well as create outside the system) and acknowledges that it must be a hard thing to balance out when you're used to making so many big plays.   I know some here don't like Kurt Warner's QB Confidential pieces on Josh but I think it's a fascinating listen.

 

My impression is that Daboll had no fear of lighting into Josh and setting him straight on anything.  They had a relationship built from the ground up, when Josh was coming into the league and depending upon his coaches to help him develop.  Daboll had the carrots, and Daboll had the sticks.

 

Now Josh is an established star, and he basically spoke up for Dorsey and got him the job so Dorsey is, to some extent, dependent upon Josh's good will.  We can kind of see that Dorsey is "low man on the (coaching) totum pole in that McDermott stuck him with John Butler, the DB coach, as his "Passing Game Coordinator" and Joe Brady as his QB coach then Mike Shula as "Senior Offensive Assistant".   Joe Brady is a great X's and O's guy, but outside of the backup QB Josh no longer has a real QB coach on the sideline with him who can coach QB vision or technique if something is getting away from him.  And while Daboll was unquestionably "running the show" by his 3rd year, I think Dorsey is running "Offense by Committee" and feeling his way.

 

Bottom line, I think the offense lacks a "single voice" and possibly lacks someone who feels like they have the clout to set Josh straight.  And I hope that's a problem they solve in the off-season because we have Russ Wilson as the shining example of what happens when an undoubted QB talent grows beyond being coachable.

 

I do think that Dorsey is overall feeling his way successfully.  Josh has said things in interviews about realizing that the QB has to be an extension of the OC on the field and see things the same way or it doesn't work, and that it took some doing but they're getting to a good place now (this was weeks ago, around the Thurs. nite games).

My frustration is fans and media don’t have much specific in their complaining about Dorsey.

 

1. They say things like, Bills aren’t good at running the ball, but then it turns out that Singletary and Cook range 4.7 ypc - 5.7 ypc.
 

And Dorsey has leaned on the run game as appropriate, cutting down Singletary’s snaps and upping James Cook, and probably most fans would like 2-4 more touches per game for Cook.

 

And the Bills deserve credit for for finding a way to use Bobby Hart, because he was useless as a stand-alone player.

 

 

2. “Dorsey doesn’t scheme anything open” or “there aren’t enough layups” in this offense. Then All-22 comes out and there are plenty of underneath options.

 

My criticisms of Dorsey most times are throwaway plays in the red zone where Josh rolls out of a tight formation and there is no one to throw to, instead of recognizing that Josh needs a designed run when you are 7 yards and in.

 

 

 

And I wish this offense varied tempo more. I don’t like always waiting until 1 second to snap the ball. 
 

Jet Sweeps? Okay, Isaiah McKenzie can do that once in awhile, but do I need it as a foundational piece? Probably not.

 

But I do think the offense is smoother with more presnap motion and window dressing. 

 

Our line is poor, especially at RT, so I’d like more 4-wide ideally. 

I want fans and media to get more specific. 

 

 

Edited January 18, 2023 by Straight Hucklebuck

[TH3]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

Except the Bengals rarely do that all night. At some point in the game their offense goes dormant for long stretches.  Inexplicably but it almost always happens and has back to last season.

This is correct...bengals are inexplicably a  one half team....you can look it up...its very consistant....

[Process]

2 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Who scares teams outside of Kelce in KC? Nobody.

 

If we lose DaQuan for any of these games we are f**ked. He is the best DL against the run and is a very underrated pass rusher as well.

Mahomes has one of the best o lines in the NFL. It's significantly better than ours. Like not even close. 

[Big Turk]

2 minutes ago, Process said:

Mahomes has one of the best o lines in the NFL. It's significantly better than ours. Like not even close. 

 

That scares you in the pass game?  OK....

[HappyDays]

2 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Who scares teams outside of Kelce in KC? Nobody.

 

Teams are scared of Toney, they at least have to plan for him. Our version of him on Sunday was Beasley... The one interception happened because the Dolphins could squat on his route without fear. If teams try to play that way against Toney he could take a quick pass to the house.

 

I agree in general that KC's offensive weapons aren't much better than ours, I think Simms is overrating them. But JuJu in his career has been more consistent than Davis when he's been healthy. For KC I would give a slight advantage to their weapons, a big advantage to their OL, and a big advantage to their play calling (which is more a compliment of Andy Reid than a criticism of Ken Dorsey).

[NewEra]

20 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I really don’t think that’s true…bills are at home and the bengals losing 3 olinemen really mitigates the bills’ biggest issue.  

 

It’s also up to 5.5 now so you should’ve waited 😂  I could see it going over 6 when those guys are ruled officially out 
 

 

The sharps agree with you.  Most are on the Bills 

[BillsfaninSB]

I get the anxiety about playing the Bengals and by no means am I’m predicting a win for the Bills.

 

But the Bengals should be sitting at home this weekend and they should have lost to the Patriots.

 

I expect a tight game.  But this is fun!  So much better than the alternative of the drought era when we were pulling our pud this time of year. 

[Augie]

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Teams are scared of Toney, they at least have to plan for him. Our version of him on Sunday was Beasley... The one interception happened because the Dolphins could squat on his route without fear. If teams try to play that way against Toney he could take a quick pass to the house.

 

I agree in general that KC's offensive weapons aren't much better than ours, I think Simms is overrating them. But JuJu in his career has been more consistent than Davis when he's been healthy. For KC I would give a slight advantage to their weapons, a big advantage to their OL, and a big advantage to their play calling (which is more a compliment of Andy Reid than a criticism of Ken Dorsey).

 

It was also related to blatant defensive pass interference. I have a damning photo but it’s too large to fit here and I’m not going to waste time on it. The Dolphin defender got there early, hit him from behind and was wrapping him up….well before the ball arrived. I was surprised that didn’t get more mention during the broadcast. I thought it was on the WR initially, but that was clearly not the case. 

[Big Turk]

19 minutes ago, BillsfaninSB said:

I get the anxiety about playing the Bengals and by no means am I’m predicting a win for the Bills.

 

But the Bengals should be sitting at home this weekend and they should have lost to the Patriots.

 

I expect a tight game.  But this is fun!  So much better than the alternative of the drought era when we were pulling our pud this time of year. 

 

You don't think they have anxiety about facing us?

[JohninMinn.]

Homefield advantage in the playoffs goes up exponentially! Fans will be able to call pass interference.

[UKBillFan]

Just now, JohninMinn. said:

Homefield advantage in the playoffs goes up exponentially! Fans will be able to call pass interference.

 

They weren't able to last week!

[H2o]

A somewhat healthy Jordan Phillips would be a big boost to the interior of this line for getting pressure on Macaulay. 

[Mat68]

Sunday is going to be a great game.  I think Buffalo is better than Cincy.  I think they matchup very well vs them.  Buffalo wins or beats themselves.  I question Taylor and his offense.  Cincy is very good during the scripted plays after the offense stalls.  Buffalo wins 32-23

[JohninMinn.]

Just now, UKBillFan said:

 

They weren't able to last week!

That play was bang bang. The ones I'm talking about are the long drama passes.

[Wayne Arnold]

 

Can Buffalo's defense please humble this mfer?

 

"The window is my whole career"

 

"I never feel like an underdog"

 

Please shut him up.

[Big Turk]

"Big Game Gabe" making preparations

 

 

[nucci]

3 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

Can Buffalo's defense please humble this mfer?

 

"The window is my whole career"

 

"I never feel like an underdog"

 

Please shut him up.

Do locker rooms have bulletin boards?

[Mat68]

Just now, H2o said:

A somewhat healthy Jordan Phillips would be a big boost to the interior of this line for getting pressure on Macaulay. 

Bears and Patriots he looked bad.  His shoulder took his juice.  His healthy would be a big boost. 

[Whites Bay]

56 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

Hopefully we get Phillips back this week.

While I agree with this sentiment, I think I read he has a torn labrum (?).  Apologies for not backing that up.  I'd be shocked to see him play with any effectiveness - if at all - for the rest of the season.  Not meaning to pee on any barbecues.  But when an inbred goober like me can see him unable to lift his arm above his shoulder on tackles, it's a pretty bad injury.

[LeGOATski]

6 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

But in those few plays what did the Bengals do? You just can't discount those plays. They were moving diwn the field with ease. In fact, their offense was in rhythm in sync and doing whatever it wanted to do. The Bills D looked like they had few answers to stop them. Of course, no one knows how the game woukd have ended. Early on though the Bills D was leaking badly. What will they do to stop the leaks? Can they stop the leaks? 

Yes, they can. Throughout the year they're ranked 23 in defense DVOA in the 1st quarter and then ranked top 5 in the other 3 quarters.

 

So you ask "can they stop the leaks?" when they've already showed you all year that yes, they do stop the leaks.

[wjag]

3 minutes ago, Whites Bay said:

 But when an inbred goober like me can see him unable to lift his arm above his shoulder on tackles, it's a pretty bad injury.

 

Momma and brother or Dad and sister?  Never mind TMI... 🙂 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

12 minutes ago, H2o said:

A somewhat healthy Jordan Phillips would be a big boost to the interior of this line for getting pressure on Macaulay. 

I think he should have been IR'd after the Patriots game. 

 

And really in Chicago he couldn't move the arm either and checked himself out. 

 

I think he tore his rotator cuff and do much. 

[Solomon Grundy]

15 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

Can Buffalo's defense please humble this mfer?

 

"The window is my whole career"

 

"I never feel like an underdog"

 

Please shut him up.

No, just look like him😎

[Beck Water]

30 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

We signed two WRs off the street that nobody else wanted and gave them both a good amount of snaps. That is proof enough that Chris Simms is right. Teams have figured out if you bracket Diggs the other weapons aren't consistently stepping up. The offense is mostly just Josh Allen making magic happen, that has been Chris Simms' point all year long. Hard to argue with him.

 

Let's take this piece by piece. 

"We signed 2 WR off the street that no one else wanted...." True.  We did this because we lost 2 WR to injury and had our backup plan poached on waivers, and late in the season, they had disproportionate value in an offense they already knew (ie, dude off the street who already knows our offense and has a comfort level with Josh >> possibly more talented dude off another team's PS.

 

"and gave them a good amount of snaps" - True.  Beasley got 31 snaps (42%), Brown got 21 snaps (28%).  Shakir's snap count also increased to 30 (41%).  In part this was because we had a starting WR out for the game due to injury.   He's one of the premier Whipping Boys on TBD, but he has been getting ~57% of the snaps all season, so that had to be filled somehow.  Brown and Beasley have been running around 12% of the snaps, so 30% more for Bease, 14% more for Brown, 12% more for Shakir = 56% of the snaps.  That's what happens when injuries bite, Next Man Up.

 

"Teams have figured out if you bracket Diggs the other weapons aren't consistently stepping up".  Some truth.  In the first half, no other receiver had more than 3 targets.  Diggs had 7 receptions on 8 targets for 114 yds.  Acting upon your premise, the Fins took him away in the 2nd half and he had 0 receptions on 1 target.  Then the rest of the Bills receivers had 9 receptions on 16 targets for 132 yds,.  The Bills still got some production in the run game (total 26 for 107 yds; 13 for  64 in the 1st half, 13 for 43 in the 2nd half.  It's not as though our offense was completely shut down; 173 yds of offense in the 2nd half with Diggs being 'taken away' vs 275 yds WITH 2 interceptions in the first half.   We got 10 first downs, we converted 4 of 8 3rd downs which is excellent, we scored 14 of our 34 points.  I believe the Bills were being more conservative in the 2nd half after the Josh Allen strip sack gave the Fins a defensive strip-6 (with good reason!), but it's not as though our offense was shut down. 

 

"The offense is mostly just Josh Allen making magic happen"  Again, some truth, but begs the question "is that because it's a system incapable of operating in any other way, or is it because Josh Allen is choosing to try to force magic to happen a little too much, instead of operating within the system?"  Simms thinks so, others may think differently.

[Ray Stonada]

6 hours ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

 

Back when I was close to your age above, but 7 years earlier.

 

No one ever...EVER besides me talks about what happened starting at 2:01:35.

 

...I remember it like it was yesterday, even viewing it a few minutes ago for the first time in years.  Damn shame.

 

Do you think that would happen in today's NFL?  No freaking way.

 

 

 

Thanks for this clip. I never watched a game from before my time, like this. So interesting to see how much is the same and yet how different it felt in '81. What a crazy call, the curse struck again! 

 

WE GOTTA DEFEAT IT THIS YEAR.

27 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Sunday is going to be a great game.  I think Buffalo is better than Cincy.  I think they matchup very well vs them.  Buffalo wins or beats themselves.  I question Taylor and his offense.  Cincy is very good during the scripted plays after the offense stalls.  Buffalo wins 32-23

 

Yes, I think their best drives are usually their first two drives of the game--the scripted ones--and then they seem to flounder for two quarters.

 

Another reason you can't assume they would have won the regular season game. 

 

I think the Bills would have won that one over a full 60 minutes, and I think they take this game too. 

[H2o]

10 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

No, just look like him😎

And I can hear Buzz in the background:

 

"KEVIN!!!....WHAT DID YOU DO TO MY ROOM?!?!?!?!"

[Beck Water]

22 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

Can Buffalo's defense please humble this mfer?

"The window is my whole career"

"I never feel like an underdog"

Please shut him up.

 

I mean, I think every fan and every QB thinks that to some degree, right?  We feel that as long as we have Josh Allen we've got a chance, right?

 

Burrows will learn that his team has a window.  It starts when he gets his 2nd contract.  Boyd and Higgins are FA after this season, as is DJ Reader and Jonah Williams their LT.  Hendrickson and Mixon FA in 2025.  It's not that the window slams shut, but it gets smaller and harder to squirm through and depends a lot on being able to pluck talent from the later part of the draft and from lower-tier FA.

 

He shouldn't feel like an underdog.  He's the QB of the defending AFC champions, and he probably feels like he came one canceled game away from hosting this game.

[BRH]

27 minutes ago, wjag said:

 

Momma and brother or Dad and sister?  Never mind TMI... 🙂 

 

Always reminds me of Bill Hicks' line about meeting a fan after a show in Oklahoma... "He said 'I'd like you to meet my wife and my sister'.... and there was one girl standing next to him."

[Big Turk]

35 minutes ago, Whites Bay said:

While I agree with this sentiment, I think I read he has a torn labrum (?).  Apologies for not backing that up.  I'd be shocked to see him play with any effectiveness - if at all - for the rest of the season.  Not meaning to pee on any barbecues.  But when an inbred goober like me can see him unable to lift his arm above his shoulder on tackles, it's a pretty bad injury.

Kentucky, West Virginia or Tennessee?

[Boatdrinks]

45 minutes ago, H2o said:

A somewhat healthy Jordan Phillips would be a big boost to the interior of this line for getting pressure on Macaulay. 

If Phillips was “ somewhat healthy” a few weeks ago that will not cut it. 

[BRH]

7 hours ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

 

Back when I was close to your age above, but 7 years earlier.

 

No one ever...EVER besides me talks about what happened starting at 2:01:35.

 

...I remember it like it was yesterday, even viewing it a few minutes ago for the first time in years.  Damn shame.

 

Do you think that would happen in today's NFL?  No freaking way.

 

 

 

I was 11 years and I remember this like it was yesterday too.  And it was worse because there were no graphics and you had no idea as a TV viewer how much time was left.  So when Lou caught that ball I was celebrating.  And then...

 

I remember Chuck Knox saying something in his office after the game like "we pay our quarterback X amount of money and he can't even tell time."  So it must have been pretty egregious.  Notice how neither he nor any of our players argued.

 

[julian]

33 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

No, just look like him😎

Joe Dahmer ??

[Low Positive]

16 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I mean, I think every fan and every QB thinks that to some degree, right?  We feel that as long as we have Josh Allen we've got a chance, right?

 

Burrows will learn that his team has a window.  It starts when he gets his 2nd contract.  Boyd and Higgins are FA after this season, as is DJ Reader and Jonah Williams their LT.  Hendrickson and Mixon FA in 2025.  It's not that the window slams shut, but it gets smaller and harder to squirm through and depends a lot on being able to pluck talent from the later part of the draft and from lower-tier FA.

 

He shouldn't feel like an underdog.  He's the QB of the defending AFC champions, and he probably feels like he came one canceled game away from hosting this game.

This is especially true because Mike Brown's lack of actual money makes it difficult to offer contracts with guaranteed money. It's not that he's cheap. It's that he doesn't have the funds to meet the CBA's escrow requirements. He'll have to do it for Burrow and Chase, but the rest of them will probably walk. They have to win now, and Burrow knows this regardless of what he says.

[transplantbillsfan]

4 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

My favorite this week -

 

 

I actually like listening to Cowherd.  I think he's one of the better listens/watches among the national pundits.  However, he does this interesting thing where he admits to being wrong about certain things fairly early and fairly well but is always just waiting to revert to his initial stance.

 

Cowherd slammed Allen for his first 2 years in the league consistently.  He did it even as 2020 began.  I remember after we beat the Jets 27-17 opening week, Cowherd was basically criticizing Allen's passing and saying he would always need to be great at running.  A few games into 2020 he turned a corning.  Last offseason when we lost Daboll he started to stick one foot out the door implying Daboll was the reason Allen is Allen.

 

And now this.

 

But he'll jump right back in and pretend he was never out if Allen plays really well the next few weeks and we win a Super Bowl.

[BillsFan130]

55 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

Yes, they can. Throughout the year they're ranked 23 in defense DVOA in the 1st quarter and then ranked top 5 in the other 3 quarters.

 

So you ask "can they stop the leaks?" when they've already showed you all year that yes, they do stop the leaks.

Someone listened to “locked on bills” this morning haha.

 

Very interesting metric for sure

[Magox]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

"Big Game Gabe" making preparations

 

 

 

If he would have had an average amount of drops this year he would have been 1000 yard receiver with a few more TD's and no one would be talking about Gabe Davis having a bad year, and that is with the injury that caused him to miss some time and played hobbled for a couple games as well.

 

He just needs to not drop so many passes, he fixes that and he is a legitimate #2 WR.

[Ray Stonada]

Von Miller went into the Bills locker room with a replica Super Bowl trophy. Put it down on the table in front of the entire team and said "There...You said you would do anything for it. Now do it."