We're on to Cincinnati(Bengals coming to OP). Sunday 1/22 at 3pm. Opening Line Bills -5

[Chandler#81]

 

 

[BananaB]

1 hour ago, newcam2012 said:

But in those few plays what did the Bengals do? You just can't discount those plays. They were moving diwn the field with ease. In fact, their offense was in rhythm in sync and doing whatever it wanted to do. The Bills D looked like they had few answers to stop them. Of course, no one knows how the game woukd have ended. Early on though the Bills D was leaking badly. What will they do to stop the leaks? Can they stop the leaks? 

Looked like that against most opponents this year though. 

[boyst]

8 minutes ago, henry jones said:

Hopefully we don't need to blitz often to get pressure.  

 

Side note... Any word on Phillips this Sunday?

McD is on wgr at 11.  Maybe then. Only team walk through today 

6 minutes ago, ArdmoreRyno said:

12 INT. ?!?!  How? Only Josh does that

[Logic]

The Bills are winning this weekend. It's happening. Have faith.

There it is. Now you can enjoy the rest of your week, stress free.

 

[DapperCam]

4 minutes ago, boyst said:

McD is on wgr at 11.  Maybe then. Only team walk through today 

12 INT. ?!?!  How? Only Josh does that

Burrow threw 4 picks week 1 vs the Steelers when he had hardly any prep time because of recovering from his appendix being removed. He’s definitely less turnover prone than Allen.

 

If you look at the throws they make though, Burrow throws a lot more little hooks, slants and screens that are less likely to get picked. They have the WR to get YAC. Every Allen throw seems to be 15 yards downfield which is a lot riskier.

[Low Positive]

Punting stats are really interesting to look at. The Bengals have the 9th fewest punts in the NFL at 59 punts, but as we all know the Bills have the fewest number of punts at 45. What's interesting is massive leap that the Bills took offensively in 2020 is reflected in punt numbers. In 2019, a year that the Bills made the playoffs, they had the fourth most punts at 79. The following year, they had the fewest number of punts at 41. 

[RoyBatty is alive]

15 minutes ago, JayBaller10 said:

Line has moved to Bills -5.5. 

Where did it start.  I am a big believer that the direction of the line moving is extremely strong indicator, moving in our favor is huge imo.

[boyst]

Just now, DapperCam said:

Burrow threw 4 picks week 1 vs the Steelers when he had hardly any prep time because of recovering from his appendix being removed. He’s definitely less turnover prone than Allen.

 

If you look at the throws they make though, Burrow throws a lot more little hooks, slants and screens that are less likely to get picked. They have the WR to get YAC. Every Allen throw seems to be 15 yards downfield which is a lot riskier.

in a vacuum you can look at a lot of things. at least 5 INT's off of the top of my mind were not really on Allen or real. 2 bounced out of the WR's hands. 1 the WR just gave up on it - i think that was against Minnesota. and then the last week one where a new WR - Brown ran wrong.

 

in a vacuum you can argue anything. stats are stats. and cinci hasn't played a ball hawking defense. our d is more like pburgh than the rest of cinci's opps.

[Jauronimo]

1 minute ago, DapperCam said:

Burrow threw 4 picks week 1 vs the Steelers when he had hardly any prep time because of recovering from his appendix being removed. He’s definitely less turnover prone than Allen.

 

If you look at the throws they make though, Burrow throws a lot more little hooks, slants and screens that are less likely to get picked. They have the WR to get YAC. Every Allen throw seems to be 15 yards downfield which is a lot riskier.

Nobody look at the fumble stats. Just dont do it.

[RiotAct]

3 minutes ago, Logic said:

The Bills are winning this weekend. It's happening. Have faith.

There it is. Now you can enjoy the rest of your week, stress free.

 

thanks, @Logic.

1 minute ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Where did it start.  I am a big believer that the direction of the line moving is extremely strong indicator, moving in our favor is huge imo.

Bills -4 I do believe.

[YoloinOhio]

 

 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

16 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

I think @Big Turk has a really interesting thread on turnovers. And I think there's something it.

 

Because the Bills punt so much less than most teams, and have the highest 3rd down conversation rate, and go for it on 4th down... they steal about as many more possessions as they turn the ball over. And then when you add the turnovers the Bills force, the problem is mitigated. 

 

Sure zero turnovers is ideal, but they make up for it in ways that aren't usually accounted for. 

 

 

Seems like the vast majority of our turnovers this season have been on the opponents side of the field which pretty much equates to a punt.  Everyone seems to get angriest at red zone interceptions but strategically that’s way better than turning it over on your own side of the field like we did a couple times against the dolphins 

[SCBills]

5 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Where did it start.  I am a big believer that the direction of the line moving is extremely strong indicator, moving in our favor is huge imo.

 

I think Bills -2.5

 

People may say, well look at the Dolphins movement and how the game turned out, but anyone watching that game knows the Bills should have won by 30 if they weren't busy messing around on some nonsense all afternoon. 

[boyst]

4 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

Nobody look at the fumble stats. Just dont do it.

go look at sacks allowed by QB.

 

compare that Burrow is  6th with 41 sacks to them having among the lowest time in the pocket, least scrambles, and least pressures... their OL is a sieve.

 

burrow puts the ball out in 2.2 seconds. yet is average in scrambles and 2nd lowest blitzed qb.

 

2022 NFL Advanced Stats | Pro-Football-Reference.com

[ArdmoreRyno]

4 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

I think Bills -2.5

 

People may say, well look at the Dolphins movement and how the game turned out, but anyone watching that game knows the Bills should have won by 30 if they weren't busy messing around on some nonsense all afternoon. 

 

Opened at Buffalo -4.5 O/U 50

[YoloinOhio]

 

[Scott7975]

14 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

Burrow threw 4 picks week 1 vs the Steelers when he had hardly any prep time because of recovering from his appendix being removed. He’s definitely less turnover prone than Allen.

 

If you look at the throws they make though, Burrow throws a lot more little hooks, slants and screens that are less likely to get picked. They have the WR to get YAC. Every Allen throw seems to be 15 yards downfield which is a lot riskier.

 

Over the last 8 weeks of regular season Burrow threw more ints than Josh.

Edited January 18, 2023 by Scott7975

[YoloinOhio]

 

 

 

[Augie]

3 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Over the last 8 weeks of regular season Burrow threw more ints than Josh.

 

I hope he extends his lead on Sunday! Go ahead, run away with it!!!  

[finn]

20 minutes ago, boyst said:

McD is on wgr at 11.  Maybe then. Only team walk through today 

12 INT. ?!?!  How? Only Josh does that

Allen constantly gets dinged for his turnovers. It's an inevitable part of the narrative now, even though he has just a few more than the other top QBs. Left out of most account are his rushing yards and TDs. You put them into the equation, and no one is his equal. I really, really don't get why everyone--even posters on this board--think Mahomes is the better QB. Allen makes all the Mahomes throws and rushes 60 yards a game. Should be the end of the discussion. 

 

My theory is that because Mahomes started his career in spectacular fashion, he is the default MVP. Quibbles like his throwing a pick to end KC's season last year, and a pick to end the game against the Bills this year, are ignored. Inconvenient facts. 

[SCBills]

8 minutes ago, ArdmoreRyno said:

 

Opened at Buffalo -4.5 O/U 50

 

Did it?  I could've sworn when the game was first set on Sunday it opened -2.5 but then quickly jumped for -4.5... maybe I'm wrong.

3 minutes ago, finn said:

Allen constantly gets dinged for his turnovers. It's an inevitable part of the narrative now, even though he has just a few more than the other top QBs. Left out of most account are his rushing yards and TDs. You put them into the equation, and no one is his equal. I really, really don't get why everyone--even posters on this board--think Mahomes is the better QB. Allen makes all the Mahomes throws and rushes 60 yards a game. Should be the end of the discussion. 

 

My theory is that because Mahomes started his career in spectacular fashion, he is the default MVP. Quibbles like his throwing a pick to end KC's season last year, and a pick to end the game against the Bills this year, are ignored. Inconvenient facts. 

 

You answered it.  Mahomes has a Super Bowl.  Allen is more talented.. he's the most talented QB in the NFL.  Once he gets a Super Bowl, the narrative will reflect that. 

[boyst]

3 minutes ago, finn said:

Allen constantly gets dinged for his turnovers. It's an inevitable part of the narrative now, even though he has just a few more than the other top QBs. Left out of most account are his rushing yards and TDs. You put them into the equation, and no one is his equal. I really, really don't get why everyone--even posters on this board--think Mahomes is the better QB. Allen makes all the Mahomes throws and rushes 60 yards a game. Should be the end of the discussion. 

 

My theory is that because Mahomes started his career in spectacular fashion, he is the default MVP. Quibbles like his throwing a pick to end KC's season last year, and a pick to end the game against the Bills this year, are ignored. Inconvenient facts. 

And Mahomes is commercial. He has some attributes (winning, demeanor, and such boxes checked) which make him appealing to commercialize. 

 

We don't see Brady, Burrow, or Jackson with those opportunities. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

10 minutes ago, finn said:

Allen constantly gets dinged for his turnovers. It's an inevitable part of the narrative now, even though he has just a few more than the other top QBs. Left out of most account are his rushing yards and TDs. You put them into the equation, and no one is his equal. I really, really don't get why everyone--even posters on this board--think Mahomes is the better QB. Allen makes all the Mahomes throws and rushes 60 yards a game. Should be the end of the discussion. 

 

My theory is that because Mahomes started his career in spectacular fashion, he is the default MVP. Quibbles like his throwing a pick to end KC's season last year, and a pick to end the game against the Bills this year, are ignored. Inconvenient facts. 

If josh had mahomes’ offensive line he’d probably break every record.  We had a tough year up front, bad weather in a big chunk of games, josh played injured a few games, and he probably played 2 less full games than mahomes when you factor in games where he came out  with a big lead and the one less regular season game.
 

despite all of that he was pretty comparable to mahomes in total yards/tds

Edited January 18, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Process]

 

[RoyBatty is alive]

8 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

I think Bills -2.5

 

People may say, well look at the Dolphins movement and how the game turned out, but anyone watching that game knows the Bills should have won by 30 if they weren't busy messing around on some nonsense all afternoon. 

Yes I agree BUT look at all the losses they had this year, each and every one you can trace back to the Bills losing the games, by "messing" around, not really getting dominated.

 

The best example of that is the Minnesota game, come on, fumbling in the end zone for a TD, that game was won.? Or the Miami game where we out gained them by what almost 3 to 1 and still were only a second or two away from getting a winning FG.  Or the first NY game where Allen throws two picks, a holding call on Dawkins wipes out a big gain and it was still a game.

 

Yes the Bills are a better team than Cinci.  Cinci was the team exposed by the Ravens, it wasnt the Bills exposed by  Miami. The Bills SHOULD win unless they self inflict wounds.  We shall see which Allen shows up.

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, boyst said:

I'm still mulling that. I think against SF it's different because they're the only offense I see capable of controlling the clock against us. 

 

Controlling the clock tends to not work well against Allen. Bills can score much quicker than their opponents can in most games.

21 minutes ago, Process said:

 

But yet he was a dropped Shakir bomb away from being over 400 yards. That has to be terrifying if true for other teams because what happens if the Bills find their Jaylen Waddle to Diggs in the first round this year?

 

Additionally, you could also say the same about KC outside Kelce. Does anyone fear even one of KC's WR's?

Edited January 18, 2023 by Big Turk

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

18 minutes ago, Process said:

 

Chris Simms is getting more and more unhinged lol Davis was terrorizing the dolphins.  Bills receivers were beating their man all game long. Just barely missed out on like 200 extra yards and 2+ more tds. 

If the dolphins weren’t scared of the bills receivers, they should have been 😂. They were very lucky to not lose that game by 20+ 

 

someone should probably tell him that the Vikings who have many scary wrs lost to the giants who have 0 scary wrs too haha 

 

Edited January 18, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[SCBills]

10 minutes ago, Process said:

 

 

Somewhat accurate heading into the playoffs, but teams may want to be afraid of Gabe Davis.  

 

He absolutely dominated out there on Sunday.  If Allen hits him on the deep balls Davis had a step on, we're potentially looking at close to 200 yards receiving. 

 

 

Edited January 18, 2023 by SCBills

[NewEra]

51 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

I posted in another thread why Turnovers are NOT a huge problem for the Bills or Chiefs in the way they are for the rest of the NFL.  In short, they play by different rules than everyone else in that regard.

Alright, I’ll check into that thread, haven’t come across it yet.  
 

— Miami- sack/fumble TD

— NYJ- interception to sauce, jets get the ball @ our 19.  TD 4 plays later.  
—Minnesota-  I can’t even type out what happened or I’ll throw up and my day will be ruined. 

 

all 3 losses were because of turnovers- vs Tua, Zach Wilson and cousins.  Now that we’re in the divisional playoffs, facing Burrow then Mahomes then SF- you best believe if we turn the ball over more than once in each game, there’s a good chance we won’t be the Super Bowl champions.  

[Wayne Arnold]

4 hours ago, Ray Stonada said:

 

I was really bummed, at age 14. We had started 11-1 but ran out of gas and finished 12-4, we had an amazing defense and an okay offense (Kelly threw 15 TDs and 17 picks on the season) with a promising rookie named Thurman Thomas.

 

Recently I read a great oral history of this game from the Athletic. I learned that Bruce was absolutely unblockable until he got injured and that took a lot out of our team.

 

 

 

Kelly and the offense had a great drive going with around 8 minutes left and clock malfunctions messed with the momentum. The curse is real.

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Sure I can agree for a couple minutes the Bills had troubles stopping the Bengals.  Can we agree that they didnt stop the Bills either?  Can we also agree that our defense usually starts out slow, makes a few adjustments, and gets some stops?  Can we also agree that the Bengals have started out hot in quite a few games and then did crap in the second half?  Sometimes the opposite of that?

 

I dont have to take what you said out of context.  You have a tendency every week to pump up the other team and oh woe is me how ever are we going to beat them attitude.

I get what you are saying especially the last paragraph. 

 

However, if you look at my multiple posts I am predicting a Bills win by a field goal. I have stated that I think I the Bills offense will score a lot vs the Bengals defense. 

 

[wjag]

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

 

 

all 3 losses were because of turnovers- vs Tua, Zach Wilson and cousins.  Now that we’re in the divisional playoffs, facing Burrow then Mahomes then SF- you best believe if we turn the ball over more than once in each game, there’s a good chance we won’t be the Super Bowl champions.  

 

4th and 18..  Nuff said on Minny...

[cdl 716]

Just now, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Chris Simms is getting more and more unhinged lol Davis was terrorizing the dolphins.  Bills receivers were beating their man all game long. Just barely missed out on like 200 extra yards and 2+ more tds. 
 

 

I respect constructive criticism, but I think he’s turned the corner and is now crusading against our offensive skill players outside of Diggs.  Gabe was great on Sunday and Knox added another TD.  I have a hard time listening to his podcasts now.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

10 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

Somewhat accurate heading into the playoffs, but teams may want to be afraid of Gabe Davis.  

 

He absolutely dominated out there on Sunday.  If Allen hits him on the deep balls Davis had a step on, we're potentially looking at close to 200 yards receiving. 

 

 

 Chris simms has always been a joke but nobody really cared because he likes josh 😂

 

Miami didn’t play that scheme because they weren’t scared of the bills receivers, they were betting on winning the race between pass rush and receivers beating their man.  It was a pretty mixed bag as well…the bills receivers absolutely dominated but the dolphins forced a few turnovers and dodged a few bullets 

 

defenses have been playing scared of our wrs all year 

Edited January 18, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Big Turk]

8 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

Somewhat accurate heading into the playoffs, but teams may want to be afraid of Gabe Davis.  

 

He absolutely dominated out there on Sunday.  If Allen hits him on the deep balls Davis had a step on, we're potentially looking at close to 200 yards receiving. 

 

 

 

Davis is like Claude Lemieux in the NHL or "Big Shot Bob" Robert Horry in the NBA.  

 

Regular season might not be anything more than an average player, but once the playoffs start, they put on a Superman Cape and raise their game tremendously.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

4 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Davis is like Claude Lemieux in the NHL or "Big Shot Bob" Robert Horry in the NBA.  

 

Regular season might not be anything more than an average player, but once the playoffs start, they put on a Superman Cape and raise their game tremendously.

Davis runs as good a deep go route as anybody… heck I hope Chris simms is correct that teams aren’t scared of him 😂 free completions for us 

[extrahammer]

12 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

 Chris simms has always been a joke but nobody really cared because he likes josh 😂

 

 

You wonder what new excuses he and Nick Wright will invent if Josh has stellar games the next 3 games. 

[Chandler#81]

Flutie’ s Bills @ Dolphins playoff game 

[Big Turk]

39 minutes ago, finn said:

Allen constantly gets dinged for his turnovers. It's an inevitable part of the narrative now, even though he has just a few more than the other top QBs. Left out of most account are his rushing yards and TDs. You put them into the equation, and no one is his equal. I really, really don't get why everyone--even posters on this board--think Mahomes is the better QB. Allen makes all the Mahomes throws and rushes 60 yards a game. Should be the end of the discussion. 

 

My theory is that because Mahomes started his career in spectacular fashion, he is the default MVP. Quibbles like his throwing a pick to end KC's season last year, and a pick to end the game against the Bills this year, are ignored. Inconvenient facts. 

 

Mahomes gets freebies every game due to scheming from Reid which Allen rarely gets.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

9 minutes ago, Process said:

 

Allen has a Top 5 NFL WR on his team. 

 

5/32 best WRs in the league, we have one. 

 

You're not saying anything Chris. We all know Gabe looks like a limited route runner, better in beating man coverage one on one with go-routes, although he does run a good comeback route. 

 

To some degree I agree with Simms. The Chiefs have JuJu-Smith Schuster and Kadarius Toney both 1st Round talents, Hardman (may or may not play is a 2nd Round pick), Skyy Moore (2nd Round), MVS - 5th Round pick. 

 

The Bengals have three first rounders - Chase, Higgins, Hurst, 2nd Rounder in Boyd. 

 

So the Bills are out there with Diggs, but after that it is 4th Rounder in Davis, 4th Rounder in Knox, 5th Rounder in Shakir, and so forth. As we've said the Bills need another 1st Round WR talent on this team to push everyone down a peg.