final DVOA stats up - Bills #1 overall

[Ethan in Cleveland]

11 minutes ago, Buffalo ill said:

Even if Buffalo wins the superbowl, this miserable forum would be full of "move on from x player" / "fire x coach" posts the next day.

Lol. You know even if the win the SuperBowl they will move on from players. Happens every year. 49ers moved on from Montana to Young. Bills will move on from Singletary to Cook. Most assuredly Bills will move on from Saffold. The big decision is Edmunds. 

[billsbackto81]

41 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

My eyes are seeing that the Bills haven't lost a game since Nov. 13th and that their three losses were by a total of 8 points combined .. and that the Bills have the 2nd best point differential in the NFL.

 

Passing with flying colors, in my opinion.

 

You forgot to mention their strength of schedule which I believe was rated one of if not the hardest in the league.

[quinnearlysghost88]

I would be okay with how the Bills play offense this year if I didn’t see them play last year. I know what they’re capable of and it’s unsettling to watch them stop and start.
 

Huge plays followed by bad plays and turnovers and stalled drives. I’m not sure what has changed but it would be nice to get back to basics and see way way more running. 

[AuntieEm]

 

JK

10 minutes ago, Billz4ever said:

Will be even harder to gameplan if receivers not named Diggs can make a DC have to worry about who's covering them.  Smoke and Knox involved yesterday is a good sign, but Davis and McK do not scare me and likely don't any other team.    

 

  No they don't.  However can argue that part of the reason Davis had his 4 td game in last years playoffs was because no one was scared of Davis in that game because he hadn't done that or been that guy that season  even though he was capable and teams knew that much about him.

  

  If Davis had the season we all hoped he'd have following that game.  Well if he had he would likely be more hobbled for this years playoffs, because as use you can bet other teams would have worked him over more over the season.  

 

   Does he have a switch for playoffs?  Not many players do but there are some that find a different gear.  We shall see what his playoffs stats are to see if he may up his game in post season.

  

   

 

 

[Gugny]

2 minutes ago, billsbackto81 said:

You forgot to mention their strength of schedule which I believe was rated one of if not the hardest in the league.

 

Yep.  Great call.  

 

Let's also not forget about playing with a JV secondary for much of the season.

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

I think my issue with this team is that we're not playing up to our potential. The last time we brought our "A game" on both sides of the ball in the same game was week 5 vs Steelers when we were leading 31-3 at HALFTIME. 

 

Since then there's been a lot of up and down on both sides of the ball. There's been a few "A" performances by the offense and a few by the defense, but it hasn't happened in the same game.  

 

 

[Virgil]

52 minutes ago, HOUSE said:

Wow, the #1 team doesn't even get a bye

Very suspicious 

 

 

.

 

And has no chance of playing the Bills or Bengals in round 2.  What a gift

[BADOLBILZ]

20 minutes ago, Buffalo ill said:

Even if Buffalo wins the superbowl, this miserable forum would be full of "move on from x player" / "fire x coach" posts the next day.

 

 

Man,  if you hate this "miserable forum" so much why don't you quit?    Fan haters/blamers are the wife-beating/dog kickers of pro sports fandom. 

[34-78-83]

37 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Yes, it does. To believe otherwise suggests that one thinks Eric Dickerson's 2,105 yards in 16 games is the real record rather than the 2,003 OJ ran for in 14 games. OJ averaged nearly 150 yards per game in 1973. You really think he wouldn't have surpassed 2,105 with two more games?  

Really need the heart reaction for this one! Cheers.

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Yesterday was a huge plus for special teams for sure.  

 

Not sure about #2 on offense anymore.  To start the year yes but it has but up ad down since then.     

 

DVOA is not subjective. It's objective, which is what is needed since teams don't play all the other teams.  Gives a baseline across the NFL to help quiet any easy/harder scheduling biases that arise.  

 

They are also #1 in PFR's SRS rating system which attempts to do the same thing, including the #1 offense in the NFL and #3 on defense.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/

 

Won't let me post an image, which is an increasingly annoying issue on this site recently...seemingly randomly decides when you can post screenshots in threads.

 

Also are #1 in ESPN FPI including #2 offense and #7 defense and #1 ST 

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/fpi

 

So regardless of what we want to say about the offense...they are pretty f**king good.

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

"Well every objective statistic indicates one thing but I, a biased individual, will rely upon my anecdotal experience."

 

It's a solipsism.  Every other fan base in the league sees the Bills as a dangerous team.  How come the Chiefs can beat the Texans by 3 points in OT but that's not a damningly flawed victory that dooms them to lose in the playoffs?

Edited January 9, 2023 by SageAgainstTheMachine

[First Round Bust]

1 hour ago, psuscott16 said:

I think this team has figure out how to win, even if it's ugly. The offense has been sporadic at times, but compared to years past it has been more consistent overall. I think people get frustrated we don't have the big plays like we have seen. It honestly feels more like the Brady lead Pats teams. Very steady and tricky in that you feel like they aren't doing much but they are putting up substantial yards and consistent points. 

 

Defense is very similar too. Feels like teams move on them at will but the number say otherwise. Not playing a high powered Bengals offense helped them with the final stats though. 

 

 

I hope they get to the next gear for the playoffs if, for nothing else, my heart health. 

I think this team has figure out how to win, even if it's ugly.

 

Dude...13-3...are you expecting them to go 17-0 and win 72-0 every effing week ?

 

The NFL is uber-ultral competetive...loosers change GMs and coaches the day after the season ends, after every season if need be and take from the winners...add the salary cap, scheduling, draft order all of which create parity and the result is a very entertaining product.

 

The Bills are not worse, the competition is better, esp the AFC East with one of the best coaches ever. and two teams on the rise thanks to finally getting rid of dysfunctional front offices and getting around to finally making good trades and drafts.

 

Example...Josh is among the best in the league when throwing against man-to-man but is one of the worst against zones, what do coaches do in the red zone now..zone with a linebacker spying Josh against his runs...which are usually on rolls to the right.

 

The Bills weakness is their strength...experience...age, wear-and-tear on vets and the injuries...Hyde..Poyer...Miller...Hamlin...all on the D...75% of the secondary has been hurt...and that is about 33% of the overall D with the leading sacker out as well

and

the overall quality of the roster leads to others picking at our cuts and practice squad year after year.

and

still they go 13-3...thru the storms...the home game in Detroit..the Hamlin scare...the injuries...those crushing close losses...enjoy it while it lasts

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Buddo]

While it's pretty obvious that the Bills aren't 'firing on all cylinders' atm, sometimes I think we need to put this stuff into context.

 

For sure, we end up 13-3, which is no mean feat in and of itself, yet think about how much disruption to their routines, that the players have had to go through, through no fault of their own, for what seems like half the season.

 

Maybe, with a regular week or two of practise, they might just hit their collective stride again.

[WhoTom]

18 minutes ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

"Well every objective statistic indicates one thing but I, a biased individual, will rely upon my anecdotal experience."

 

That problem goes far beyond football fandom.

 

 

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

1 minute ago, WhoTom said:

 

That problem goes far beyond football fandom.

 

 

 

Heh, true.  But I find it especially funny in sports where the statistics are so conveniently gathered and disbursed for us.

[MJS]

1 hour ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Not sure about #2 on offense anymore.  To start the year yes but it has but up ad down since then.     

Ah, you seem to have discovered the nature of NFL football. Every team has ups and downs.

[Redneck]

2 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

You can say that about so many teams. The Chiefs have struggled to win a lot of games this year. Philly barely beat Indy, and probably should have lost. The Bengals got waxed by the Browns and arguably should have lost to the Patriots if not for a bad non-call on Stevenson's forward progress. 

Adding to KC, they had to go into OT to beat Houston.

[msw2112]

Having seen the Bills perform at peak levels like the Patroits' playoff game last year makes me feel like they are not playing to their potential.

 

The reality is that the competition is stronger.  The Dolphins, Jets, Patriots, Lions, and Vikings are all much stronger than they were last season and all outperformed their projections this year.  There is also a lot more parity in the league - perhaps not in terms of record, but in terms of week-to-week competitiveness.  Houston took the Chiefs to OT.  Indy took the Eagles to the final seconds.  The Patroits took the Bengals down the final minute.  The Raiders took the 49ers to OT.  And so on.  There are not many easy outs this season.  That, combined with the Bills' injuries, particularly on defense, makes it look like the Bills have regressed.  Perhaps they really haven't and the league and the Bills schedule is just more difficult than last year.
 

So I feel uneasy going into the playoffs, as, again, it feels like the Bills are not firing on all cylanders.  But again, in reality, they have as good a chance as any team to get to and win the Super Bowl.  There probably won't be many blowouts in the playoffs, but I'll happily take close wins if that's what gets the job done.

[Ta111]

2 minutes ago, msw2112 said:

Having seen the Bills perform at peak levels like the Patroits' playoff game last year makes me feel like they are not playing to their potential.

 

The reality is that the competition is stronger.  The Dolphins, Jets, Patriots, Lions, and Vikings are all much stronger than they were last season and all outperformed their projections this year.  There is also a lot more parity in the league - perhaps not in terms of record, but in terms of week-to-week competitiveness.  Houston took the Chiefs to OT.  Indy took the Eagles to the final seconds.  The Patroits took the Bengals down the final minute.  The Raiders took the 49ers to OT.  And so on.  There are not many easy outs this season.  That, combined with the Bills' injuries, particularly on defense, makes it look like the Bills have regressed.  Perhaps they really haven't and the league and the Bills schedule is just more difficult than last year.
 

So I feel uneasy going into the playoffs, as, again, it feels like the Bills are not firing on all cylanders.  But again, in reality, they have as good a chance as any team to get to and win the Super Bowl.  There probably won't be many blowouts in the playoffs, but I'll happily take close wins if that's what gets the job done.

Bills had 6 losses last year and only 3 this year. They haven’t regressed. There is a lot of recency bias going on.

[RoyBatty is alive]

2 hours ago, aceman_16 said:

Have ya watched the NFL ths year?!!? EVERY team has been up and down this year.

no kidding, really?

[msw2112]

 

9 minutes ago, Ta111 said:

Bills had 6 losses last year and only 3 this year. They haven’t regressed. There is a lot of recency bias going on.

 

The point of the post was to say that they have NOT regressed, despite the appearance that they have.  They beat the Patroits in January 2022 by 30 points, scoring on every possession (in a playoff game).  They only beat the Patriots in January 2023 by 12 points (in an important regular season game), with a number of punts and turnovers.   I'm not going back to look at the numbers on these, but it's safe to say that they beat the Jets and Dolphins a whole lot more comfortably last season than this season.  So they appear to have regressed, but overall, it's more accurate to say that the other teams have improved and not that the Bills have regressed.

 

Perhaps they will benefit in the playoffs from having learned how to win close games, and having learned how to win against more challenging opponents.

 

[KDIGGZ]

Now let's be honest with ourselves. If we saw there was a team with those numbers we would say "that team should win the super bowl." Let's revisit this thread ina few weeks and consider if we lived up to these expectations or if we underperformed

[gjv]

What is DVOA?

[balln]

3 hours ago, HOUSE said:

Wow, the #1 team doesn't even get a bye

Very suspicious 

 

 

.

Think it’s explained by strength of schedule. Bills had 4 hardest

[Magox]

@Chaos  What's lame is that you didn't know this information that is readily available for anyone willing to do just a few seconds of research. Luckily for you, you can find it in this thread.

[dave mcbride]

7 minutes ago, gjv said:

What is DVOA?

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/glossary#:~:text=DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted,this stat is called VOA.

 

DVOA: The main statistic used on Football Outsiders, DVOA breaks down the entire season play-by-play, comparing success on each play to the league average based on a number of variables including down, distance, location on field, current score gap, quarter, and opponent quality. While it can be used as a measure of total team performance, it differs from other power ratings found throughout the Web because it can be broken down to analyze team effectiveness in any number of ways: down, quarter, rushing vs. receiving, location on field, passes to backs vs. passes to receivers, and so on. Read the article METHODS TO THE MADNESS for more information. DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, although we use the same letters to refer to defensive rankings which are adjusted to take into account the quality of offensive opponents. When not adjusted for opponent, this stat is called VOA.

Edited January 9, 2023 by dave mcbride

[Scott7975]

3 hours ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

All the advanced team metrics love Bills DVOA, SRS, FPI, 538. The eye test hasn't been passed lately.

 

This is because you are not using the same lense if and when you watch other teams.  Even KC has struggled in a lot of games this year.  

[BearNorth]

3 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Idk the formula but we are the best on third down and we are second in ypg and ppg.  We scored less than 20 once all season and that was because our entire offensive line was injured lol

 

DVOA factors in opponents and we’ve got two division rivals with really tough defenses to score on 

We also played Detroit, Minny & Chicago - 3 of the 4 lowest ranked defenses.

[Gugny]

4 hours ago, psuscott16 said:

I think this team has figure out how to win, even if it's ugly.

 

Two teams in the NFL won more games and the Bills only played 16 games.

 

I think they've figured out how to win.

 

[Dr. Who]

5 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

Two teams in the NFL won more games and the Bills only played 16 games.

 

I think they've figured out how to win.

 

You implicitly corrected to "this team has (to) figure out how to win," but from the context of the whole, the post intends "this team has figure(d) out how to win, even if it's ugly."

[Gugny]

Just now, Dr. Who said:

You implicitly corrected to "this team has (to) figure out how to win," but from the context of the whole, the post intends "this team has figure(d) out how to win, even if it's ugly."

 

I had to read it two more times!  Nice catch!

[hondo in seattle]

I find PFF's results surprising.  The Bills just haven't looked like a dominant team in the second of the season.  Too many inconsistent performances at too many position groups.  

 

Then again, every team this year has weaknesses. 

 

Edited January 9, 2023 by hondo in seattle

[Rock'em Sock'em]

6 hours ago, WhoTom said:

we can't/won't commit to the run

Bills are 7th in rushing yards per game and the only team to have 100 yards rushing in every single game.  Five of the teams above us also have QBs that gain rushing yards - a couple of them even more so than Allen.  Where do you see the lack of commitment this season?

 

[Virgil]

I don’t understand how our defense is rated so high.  We don’t get the sacks or turnovers, and we’ve been giving up a decent share of points.  
 

Are other defenses really that bad?

[WhoTom]

3 minutes ago, Rock'em Sock'em said:

Bills are 7th in rushing yards per game and the only team to have 100 yards rushing in every single game.  Five of the teams above us also have QBs that gain rushing yards - a couple of them even more so than Allen.  Where do you see the lack of commitment this season?

 

 

I was being facetious. People keep complaining about Dorsey not committing to the run, yet, we have the #2 offense in the league.

 

 

 

 

[78thealltimegreat]

6 hours ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Yesterday was a huge plus for special teams for sure.  

 

Not sure about #2 on offense anymore.  To start the year yes but it has but up ad down since then.     

It’s the Gabe Davis and Isiah McKenzie factor to many drops 

[ganesh]

6 hours ago, That's No Moon said:

Quick question, which team has looked better in all of those categories?

 

Kansas City hasn't exactly been steamrolling the world this year either.

The Bengals.  They are having a stout Defense and an Offense that can challenge anyone.    

[Malazan]

6 hours ago, psuscott16 said:

I think this team has figure out how to win, even if it's ugly.

 

They won 13 games. I think they figured it out. 

[dave mcbride]

4 hours ago, BearNorth said:

We also played Detroit, Minny & Chicago - 3 of the 4 lowest ranked defenses.

Detroit had one of the better defenses in the league in the second half of the season. Chicago’s D is terrible, but the weather was effing ridiculous.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

My two favorite advanced metrics 

 

SCOREBOARD and RECORD 

 

also suggest they have had a good season…