Strongest Conference Foe

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Great Division foe thread.  There was good conversation on the topic of AFC competition during free agency and leading up to the draft. Now that most of the moves have been made let's revisit it.

 

My take is the Chargers are the biggest obstacle to the Bills making the SB.  They have a superstar QB, multiple weapons on offense and they have on paper made significant upgrades to their defense.  I think they will win their division but will only be third in the conference standings because of how competitive their division is.  I believe it will be Buffalo #1 followed by Indianapolis at #2.  I think Tenn takes a step back and the Colts win that division by 2+ games.  Bills get home-field in the playoffs and win at home in the Conference game.

 

Why not KC?  It's reasonable to pick KC again and despite moving Hill they did make some nice additions in free agency and the draft.  Just seems like their star is fading while other teams are on the ascent.  

[Rc2catch]

8 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Great Division foe thread.  There was good conversation on the topic of AFC competition during free agency and leading up to the draft. Now that most of the moves have been made let's revisit it.

 

My take is the Chargers are the biggest obstacle to the Bills making the SB.  They have a superstar QB, multiple weapons on offense and they have on paper made significant upgrades to their defense.  I think they will win their division but will only be third in the conference standings because of how competitive their division is.  I believe it will be Buffalo #1 followed by Indianapolis at #2.  I think Tenn takes a step back and the Colts win that division by 2+ games.  Bills get home-field in the playoffs and win at home in the Conference game.

 

Why not KC?  It's reasonable to pick KC again and despite moving Hill they did make some nice additions in free agency and the draft.  Just seems like their star is fading while other teams are on the ascent.  

I would like to agree. My only issue with the chargers is health. Almost every single star player outside Herbert and maybe JC Jackson has a pretty lengthy injury history. Of course injuries can happen to anyone but the trend is similar to Arizona for me last year.. Gonna be a great team when everyone is on the field, but how many are left by the end of the season? They are pretty stacked and should be considered a threat. 
 

I would have to stick with KC. Until we eliminate them or dodge them in the playoffs they are our kryptonite. We’re always gonna have a weird link cause of trading the pick for Mahomes. We’re all happy with Allen I think but Allen hasn’t hit the accomplishments yet. 
 

Baltimore could be the forgotten team a lot have written off. I would expect them to bounce back this year. 
 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 minute ago, Rc2catch said:

I would like to agree. My only issue with the chargers is health. Almost every single star player outside Herbert and maybe JC Jackson has a pretty lengthy injury history. Of course injuries can happen to anyone but the trend is similar to Arizona for me last year.. Gonna be a great team when everyone is on the field, but how many are left by the end of the season? They are pretty stacked and should be considered a threat. 
 

I would have to stick with KC. Until we eliminate them or dodge them in the playoffs they are our kryptonite. We’re always gonna have a weird link cause of trading the pick for Mahomes. We’re all happy with Allen I think but Allen hasn’t hit the accomplishments yet. 
 

Baltimore could be the forgotten team a lot have written off. I would expect them to bounce back this year. 
 

Agree on Baltimore.  I think they win the AFC North.

Good comments on injury history for Chargers.

Also Matt Ryan could get real old real quick too like Rivers and Brees did. Will be interesting to see how he plays.

[Mr. WEO]

Chargers won 9 games and missed the playoffs.  Now Russ Wilson is in Denver. 

 

Colts with old Ryan is just another said old joke for the Indy fans to endure since Luck retired.  

 

Even without Hill, it's KC.  No need to discount Bengals either.

[BringMetheHeadofLeonLett]

Funny timing. For the 18 years of the Pats****** heyday, the AFC generally sucked.  Now we get good and the rest of the conference goes into a nuclear arms race. 

[MILFHUNTER#518]

I think the Broncos are the dark horse on this list, they have an awesome defense, great o-line and now a superstar trigger puller under center. They may legitimately be the best team in their division. They have been a qb away ever since Peyton retired.

[Rc2catch]

1 minute ago, MILFHUNTER#518 said:

I think the Broncos are the dark horse on this list, they have an awesome defense, great o-line and now a superstar trigger puller under center. They may legitimately be the best team in their division. They have been a qb away ever since Peyton retired.

Add in they probably have the best 

1-2 punch running back combo as well. Williams was a tank last season and had to split carries with Gordon who is actually still producing. It should flip more to Williams this year. 
It should be Wilson’s most talented offense he’s had in his career. 

[Success]

13 minutes ago, BringMetheHeadofLeonLett said:

Funny timing. For the 18 years of the Pats****** heyday, the AFC generally sucked.  Now we get good and the rest of the conference goes into a nuclear arms race. 

 

It's really annoying.  They still would have been a great team - but probably would have made about half of the SB's.  I remember some years when the 5 & 6 seeds in the playoffs were complete pushovers.  The only things that kept Brady in check were Manning & Harbaugh's good coaching in Baltimore.

 

As to the OP, I feel like I could make a case for about 3-4 teams as being the strongest after the Bills.  I really like what the Bengals did this offseason; they're clearly going to be tough.  Chargers will make the playoffs, but they aren't there yet.

 

The Colts and Ravens will both be very tough outs.

 

KC is still the one, though.

 

[Big Turk]

I can't agree because the Chargers always find ways to come up small in big games or at key moments.

 

I think Cincy takes a step back. It's still KC for me.

Edited May 18, 2022 by Big Turk

[BillsFanForever19]

There's been SO much change in the Conference this offseason, we won't know until about 3/4 of the way through the season, in my opinion.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

12 minutes ago, MILFHUNTER#518 said:

I think the Broncos are the dark horse on this list, they have an awesome defense, great o-line and now a superstar trigger puller under center. They may legitimately be the best team in their division. They have been a qb away ever since Peyton retired.

The Broncos stats for defense are right around 10th best in yards, YPA, sacks.  I admittedly have not followed them as close because I did not think they were much of a contender without a QB.  Honest inquiry here, what makes their defense awesome?

[MJS]

4 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

I can't agree because the Chargers always find ways to come up small in big games or at key moments.

 

I think Cincy takes a step back. It's still KC for me.

I agree. The Chargers need to show they can even make the playoffs. They have been talked up for years, but they always shoot themselves in the foot.

 

Baltimore is another team to consider, although the Bills have defended Jackson pretty well when we have played them. But they should be a pretty strong team this year.

 

I have to see the Broncos put it all together until I believe they are a true contender. But they have a ton of potential.

 

KC should still be good, but I think they are a lot less scary this year compared to previous years.

[EasternOHBillsFan]

54 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

My take is the Chargers are the biggest obstacle to the Bills making the SB.  They have a superstar QB, multiple weapons on offense and they have on paper made significant upgrades to their defense. 

 

Brandon Staley is a lot like Frank Reich... he is limiting the success of the team due to poor coaching decisions in game. Staley will cost the Chargers big time and will probably be fired due to dashed high expectations.

[strive_for_five_guy]

Can we throw a poll into this thread?

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 minute ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:

 

Brandon Staley is a lot like Frank Reich... he is limiting the success of the team due to poor coaching decisions in game. Staley will cost the Chargers big time and will probably be fired due to dashed high expectations.

Agree on Staley's past.  He needs to do better.  The same could be said for McDermott and as I said in another thread he has gotten better.  

[Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD]

It's KC until proven otherwise.

[FilthyBeast]

For me it's still Mahomes and the Chiefs until proven otherwise. And as much as some folks believe that Mahomes and the Chiefs are going to steeply decline this year deep down I think Mahomes is going to have his best season ever and prove what a generational talent he truly is especially with all the doubts cast after Hill was traded to Miami. Also let's not kid ourselves here, until the Bills beat the Chiefs in a playoff game nothing else truly matters so hopefully they get that matchup again sometime next January.

[TheBrownBear]

I agree that the Chargers look great on paper heading into 2022, but that seems to be the case every year for the past 20 years and they've disappointed more often than not.  I'm not sure what it is with that organization, because coaches and players have turned over multiple times, but they just can't seem to put it together.  

 

I agree with FB above.  For me it's the Chiefs.  Until we can progress further than them in the playoffs, then they are the team to beat, imo.  And as much as the AFC improved overall in the offseason, the Bills and Chiefs are still head and shoulders above the rest.  

[LabattBlue]

Kansas City. Now what about “strongest league foe”?

[Big Turk]

6 minutes ago, BTB said:

Kansas City. Now what about “strongest league foe”?

 

Well it isn't anyone from outside the AFC. I'm not a huge believer in the Rams in spite of them being defending champ. TB and GB are a step down from them.

[NewEra]

Chiefs, Chargers, Broncos, Bengals are the true contenders imo, but I could see the Browns (if Watson isn’t suspended very long), Ravens, Titans and Colts giving us a tough time in the playoffs.  Any given Sunday in this AFC.  
 

The Bengals won the AFC last year.  How many of us listed the bengals as the team to beat last year?  The AFC team that gave the bengals their toughest game in the playoffs just added Davante Adams and Chandler Jones and they aren’t even on my list.  
 

A handful of young promising Head Coaches adds to the mystery.  

[Orlando Tim]

I am going KC then Colts. The Colts ran all over us last year with a garbage QB and Matt Ryan is at least above average. I think the entire AFC will be bashing each other weekly and hopefully we can use our relatively weak division to take the 1 seed

[FLFan]

1 hour ago, Rc2catch said:

I would like to agree. My only issue with the chargers is health. Almost every single star player outside Herbert and maybe JC Jackson has a pretty lengthy injury history. Of course injuries can happen to anyone but the trend is similar to Arizona for me last year.. Gonna be a great team when everyone is on the field, but how many are left by the end of the season? They are pretty stacked and should be considered a threat. 
 

I would have to stick with KC. Until we eliminate them or dodge them in the playoffs they are our kryptonite. We’re always gonna have a weird link cause of trading the pick for Mahomes. We’re all happy with Allen I think but Allen hasn’t hit the accomplishments yet. 
 

Baltimore could be the forgotten team a lot have written off. I would expect them to bounce back this year. 
 

I will believe that Baltimore is a legitimate threat when they can demonstrate the ability to execute a modern NFL passing game against top opponents.  They have not done so yet, and are down to scraps at WR.  Until then, it is a defense first, run first team with a gimmicky QB who lacks downfield vision and ability to win consistently with his arm. I like the Chargers more than the Chiefs on paper but I am not sold on their Coach.  Still, I think they take the West this year.  

[Craig Oi]

I still think it's the Chiefs until we beat them, but their division is going to be brutal. Cinncy & Baltimore both look good in the tough north. I think the Colts will emerge from the south but you can't count out Tenn completely, with how weak the rest of their division is the winner could be our biggest threat for the #1 seed. The AFC is a battle royal, franchise QB required...we have the best one. I can't wait for the season opener!!!!!

 

 

Edited May 19, 2022 by Craig Oi

[Repulsif]

I saw the title, then immediatly thought Chargers/Chiefs

[Freddie's Dead]

Chefs.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

2 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

Well it isn't anyone from outside the AFC. I'm not a huge believer in the Rams in spite of them being defending champ. TB and GB are a step down from them.

Agree

[strive_for_five_guy]

I’ll go on record with the Bengals.  Of AFC foes, their offensive potential scares me the most and I think Burrow & company will continue to thrive.  Chiefs take a step back without Tyreek.

Edited May 19, 2022 by strive_for_five_guy

[MJS]

2 hours ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

I am going KC then Colts. The Colts ran all over us last year with a garbage QB and Matt Ryan is at least above average. I think the entire AFC will be bashing each other weekly and hopefully we can use our relatively weak division to take the 1 seed

Hopefully our revamped defensive line is up to the task now. It's a major upgrade, in my opinion.

2 hours ago, Big Turk said:

Well it isn't anyone from outside the AFC. I'm not a huge believer in the Rams in spite of them being defending champ. TB and GB are a step down from them.

While I do somewhat agree, the Rams are still a pretty dang good team. They have stars and a QB who is very talented. They are one of those teams that can put it all together and look like the best team in the league for one week.

[BigAl2526]

I'll have a better idea in about 7 months.

[Augie]

Just putting it in a new light, has the NFC been mentioned yet?  🤷‍♂️

 

 

We have a LONG way to go. Who gets hot late? We have a rough schedule early, but……

[Rico]

20 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

I’ll go on record with the Bengals.  Of AFC foes, their offensive potential scares me the most and I think Burrow & company will continue thrive.  Chiefs take a step back without Tyreek.

Agreed. Let’s see what Joe Cool can do behind a real OL. 

[Alphadawg7]

People are under estimating the Raiders.  Not only do I think the Raiders will make the playoffs, but I think they will challenge to win their division.  They get to the QB better than any team in their division, they have a lot of weapons on offense, and they shown they could win the close games last year, things all their divisional rivals struggled with.  

 

An offense led by Carr and featuring Devante Adams, Renfrow and Darren Waller is going to be tough to defend, plus they have a strong running game as well.  Adding Chandler Jones to that pass rush should see them lead the division in sacks.  

 

KC has big questions on both sides of the ball and turnover losing key players.  While you cant count out Mahomes, I think its reasonable they are in line for a struggle in their own division this year, plus they still have to play us as well.  This is a team I could see winning the division and at the same time seeing them miss the playoffs all together.  Its going to really come down to what kind of impact their rookies and young players can make, especially someone like Skyy.  

 

LAC were terrible in all 3 phases of their defense last year, so I don't think an aging Mack who hasn't had double digit sacks in 3 years and JC to the secondary is going to turn that defense around.  Could it be improved, sure...but I still think its no better than 3rd in the division.  Not to mention, their best play makers seem to all struggle with staying healthy.  

 

Den added Wilson, but he is coming off a down year, in a new system, and doesn't have the same level of weapons to work with.  And while I agree that Denver has a solid WR group, I don't think they are as good as DK and Lockett are, nor do they have the same rapport and chemistry with Wilson that takes time to develop.  And now one has been arrested and involved in some off field issues.  They also lost Noah Fant in the trade.  

 

I totally get why anyone would make a case for any of these 4 to win the division, there is a valid argument for all of them.  But the least talked about team I think could be a sleeper and surprise some people this year out there in Las Vegas.  They kept all of their key players in tact and added major playmaker to both sides of the ball to get even better.  And Adams and Carr already played with each other in college too, shouldn't take them long to get comfortable with each other.  

[ALLEN1QB]

No way I go with Chargers or KC. That division will be beating on each other all season. 

[chongli]

Let's wait for San Diego to at least make the playoffs this year before giving them props. Until proven otherwise, at least for us, KC, Tennessee, and Indy are still the teams to beat

[PrimeTime101]

1 hour ago, BigAl2526 said:

I'll have a better idea in about 7 months.

i can do it in 5 months? going once? 

[LeGOATski]

4 hours ago, Allen2Diggs said:

It's KC until proven otherwise.

Wasn't it proven otherwise last season when the Bengals beat them for an appearance in the Super Bowl.

 

Biggest obstacle is the Bengals until proven otherwise. They're a well-rounded team.

[billybrew1]

I want to get my Lindy’s NFL mag soI can really compare rosters man to man….there has just been too many moves for me to follow and then try to remember what the hell happened. I really want to look at the lines of each team. It seems so many teams have at least two dominant DLs and we are a big unknown as far as that goes. Then you have to look at the four starters on the DL and then the depth. Then you can do the same thing with the OLs. Then weapons, corners, right on down the line…. The mag comes out in June and is worth every penny for the crazed fan. You can read it right through and then reference it and read about the team the Bills are about to play once again. I don’t necessarily buy their opinions, but they go over each player to give you know who is where.

Honestly, the Bills have the best offense imho, the potential for a great defense, but probably just good. Hopefully better than last year. Once Tre and Kaiir are fully integrated our defense might shine though it is an exciting thought to see that secondary healthy. …Maybe Araiza shocks the NFL and is an absolute steal. Maybe Shakir turns out to be an excellent returner. Maybe Bernard and late round LB are tremendous special teamers and together these additions vault our Special Teams to #1. Not many folks talk about how great our STs were in the Jim Kelly era….they can win you games! I could see STs really taking a huge step up. Maybe Cook is a returner as well?

 

Wild stabs at divisions: Buffalo, SD, Cincinnati and the colts…. Very little surprises here I know….All these teams are real threats to Buffalo….unless our DL is very good….

 

[Zerovoltz]

5 hours ago, MILFHUNTER#518 said:

I think the Broncos are the dark horse on this list, they have an awesome defense, great o-line and now a superstar trigger puller under center. They may legitimately be the best team in their division. They have been a qb away ever since Peyton retired.

 

They do not have a great O-line.  It's mid pack at best and probably more accurate to say it's a bottom half of leauge O line.  Boles at LT had a great year 2 seasons ago...then regressed last year...they have a revolving door at RT, and they have unsettled G-C-G situation as well.  

 

Russ had a staggering 10.7 pct sack PTC last year in Seattle.  His sack rate has gone up every single season he's played.  That offense isn't a sure thing to just fire on all cylinders from the get go....

 

....Also....even as the AFC is gauntlet....it's the Bills to win until they don't.  The Bills have FAR AND AWAY the best shot at the 1 seed and that important first round bye.  No matter what you might think of the other teams in teh AFC...the Bills absolutely should be in position to win two home games to get to the super bowl.  Period.  

 

As a Chiefs fan...it's the BILLS who are the team to beat and will be the main obstacle once the playoffs start.  

[Richard Noggin]

The diversity of answers in this thread likely indicates, as most of us would agree, that the AFC is stacked with so many high-end QBs and dangerous teams in general that it's difficult to predict which will weather the regular season intraconference gauntlet healthy enough and clicking when it matters most.

 

It also suggests that putting any single AFC team, including the Bills, on a predictive pedestal is unwise. Even the odds-on favorite to win it all has a roughly 15% probability at best, which might even be generous.

 

The sheer volume of variables baked into a grueling 17-game NFL season, followed by a 14-team, single-elimination tournament, is calculus that laughs at predictions. No other sport is quite like this. 

 

Add to all the uncertainty the seemingly unprecedented offseason player movement of impactful guys, and it's a puzzle.