The Math Behind the Wide Receiver Blockbusters

[Punching Bag]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/the-math-behind-the-wide-receiver-blockbusters/ar-AAVuk3m?ocid=af-avas

Quote

“So, and this is my opinion, when you have a high-priced quarterback, it’s hard to have a high-priced receiver,” the exec said. “Miami has a young quarterback on a rookie deal and they trade for [a high-priced receiver]. Which leads me to believe the inverse is going to be true of Green Bay—I think in the draft, they’ll go outside their normal trend, and take a receiver. Look at what Vegas is doing—swinging hard out of the gate, Josh is the new head coach, and he’s not used to being in a losing situation.

 

“At some point, that will have to correct itself.”

 

The exec then pointed out that if you take Raiders QB Derek Carr’s average per year—$25 million—and add it to the real value of Davante Adams’s deal ($23.5 million per over the first three years of his deal), you’re basically at what Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson now cost. And with Carr in a contract year, he’d either have to take a team-friendly deal, or the correction’s coming, eventually.

 

For those who do not like math a warning math is involved.

[H2o]

I think Miami did this because they truly DO NOT believe in Tua and expect to be having another QB on a rookie deal here within the next 2 years. They are giving him an opportunity to show he can be the guy, but I don't think they really believe he will be the guy. 

 

Carr doesn't strike me as a person only concerned with $$$. I think he wants to win. I think that want will outweigh what people clamor he should be paid and he will accept a more team friendly deal in the mid $30M's for a couple of years to do so, giving the team some flexibility. 

[mushypeaches]

Remember when we brought in T.O. to help a young QB that didn't throw the ball downfield?

 

Remember when we drafted Sammy Watkins to help unlock EJ's potential?

 

This isn't that much different

[BuffaloBill]

To me this is the most interesting nugget from the article:

 

”• I like the role that Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy has created on his staff, first for Ben McAdoo, and now for Brian Schottenheimer—a sort of over-the-top role to be filled by an experienced coach, to monitor trends from other teams, and help build gameplans on a week-to-week basis based on the research down on those trends, and those teams.”

 

The league tends to be a cat and mouse, you zig and I zag situation with time. Defenses adjust to what offenses are doing and vice versa - it may now be a trend to to that on a smaller scale week to week.

[djp14150]

3 hours ago, Limeaid said:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/the-math-behind-the-wide-receiver-blockbusters/ar-AAVuk3m?ocid=af-avas

 

For those who do not like math a warning math is involved.

 

nothing new here

 

teams have a new draftee contract they can invest in higher cost vets elsewhere. When QB is due, you can’t pay the help and have to go young.

 

that’s  why I think Buffalo goes with WR if the Alabama player falls to them with the plan of possibly not signing resigning Diggs long term. 

[RobbRiddick]

3 hours ago, H2o said:

I think Miami did this because they truly DO NOT believe in Tua and expect to be having another QB on a rookie deal here within the next 2 years. They are giving him an opportunity to show he can be the guy, but I don't think they really believe he will be the guy. 

 

Carr doesn't strike me as a person only concerned with $$$. I think he wants to win. I think that want will outweigh what people clamor he should be paid and he will accept a more team friendly deal in the mid $30M's for a couple of years to do so, giving the team some flexibility. 

 

Yeah, it's actually very smart of them I think. As you say, surround Tua with offensive weapons that will show beyond a doubt whether he's the guy or not, and if he isn't they can draft another QB with the haul of draft picks they still have in 2023.

 

 

[NewEra]

52 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said:

To me this is the most interesting nugget from the article:

 

”• I like the role that Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy has created on his staff, first for Ben McAdoo, and now for Brian Schottenheimer—a sort of over-the-top role to be filled by an experienced coach, to monitor trends from other teams, and help build gameplans on a week-to-week basis based on the research down on those trends, and those teams.”

 

The league tends to be a cat and mouse, you zig and I zag situation with time. Defenses adjust to what offenses are doing and vice versa - it may now be a trend to to that on a smaller scale week to week.

Agreed.  Keep it moving.  

[Magox]

These new WR contracts are unsustainable.  I agree that the WR market will correct but probably not until it overinflates a little more.

 

I just don’t see how the Bills agree to a $25m + a year contract with Diggs knowing that Allen’s huge numbers are about to hit.

[mushypeaches]

1 hour ago, Magox said:

These new WR contracts are unsustainable.  I agree that the WR market will correct but probably not until it overinflates a little more.

 

I just don’t see how the Bills agree to a $25m + a year contract with Diggs knowing that Allen’s huge numbers are about to hit.

 

I think that your logic here is accurate - the salary cap structure isn't going to tolerate having top WR's paid like QB's.  What's going to happen is that smart GM's start to understand that the incremental benefit of having a top WR isn't worth the incremental cost, and the position overall will start to get de-valued.  Similar to what happened with RB's over the last 20-25 years. 

 

It's not quite the same comparison, but the market correction will occur, and eventually teams will begin treating WR's like more "fungible" assets.  That's going to be a hard lesson to learn for top shelf WR's, but it's going to happen now that these salaries are getting downright ridiculous.  And the value of first contract WR's is going to be even more critical

 

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, BuffaloBill said:

 

”• I like the role that Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy has created on his staff, first for Ben McAdoo, and now for Brian Schottenheimer—a sort of over-the-top role to be filled by an experienced coach, to monitor trends from other teams, and help build gameplans on a week-to-week basis based on the research down on those trends, and those teams.”

 

 

Beane said the other day that each of several people on his staff is assigned four or five other teams in the league, and they are supposed to be shadow GMs for those teams, figuring out what personnel they have, what they're availability might be, how the players are used, trends.    Hearing that makes me think that the Bills must also have (maybe it's the same person) people monitoring other teams for the trends you describe.   And, of course, there's intensive film review going on of all teams on the Bills schedule.   

 

I doubt there's very much happening in the league that the Bills don't know about. 

[RichRiderBills]

1 hour ago, Magox said:

These new WR contracts are unsustainable.  I agree that the WR market will correct but probably not until it overinflates a little more.

 

I just don’t see how the Bills agree to a $25m + a year contract with Diggs knowing that Allen’s huge numbers are about to hit.

 

I totally agree, even more unsustainable when you factor how few times a WR touched the ball per game. 

 

Then we go back and crunch the numbers of teams w production and deep playoff runs and see how many have these high dollar WRs. Very few.

 

Then to top it off, take a deep dive into actual performance of WRs who got huge payouts after the contract.

 

My guess is it will look even more nonsensical.

 

Raiders and dolphins have made some of the singular dumbest personal moves over the years...

[BullBuchanan]

4 hours ago, mushypeaches said:

Remember when we brought in T.O. to help a young QB that didn't throw the ball downfield?

 

Remember when we drafted Sammy Watkins to help unlock EJ's potential?

 

This isn't that much different

Diggs was the same. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't.

[mabden]

4 hours ago, mushypeaches said:

Remember when we brought in T.O. to help a young QB that didn't throw the ball downfield?

 

Remember when we drafted Sammy Watkins to help unlock EJ's potential?

 

This isn't that much different

 

Most of Hill's yards are from short passes that result in YAC, not long downfield throws.   Almost perfect for Tua's range. 

Edited March 25, 2022 by mabden

[cba fan]

21 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Beane said the other day that each of several people on his staff is assigned four or five other teams in the league, and they are supposed to be shadow GMs for those teams, figuring out what personnel they have, what they're availability might be, how the players are used, trends.    Hearing that makes me think that the Bills must also have (maybe it's the same person) people monitoring other teams for the trends you describe.   And, of course, there's intensive film review going on of all teams on the Bills schedule.   

 

I doubt there's very much happening in the league that the Bills don't know about. 

ty. yeah that's interesting. I like it. As a diehard Bills fan i know virtually everything about each player in real time. I follow the games know who is trending up Bates Brown. Down Ford. In flux Edmunds etc etc and get a feel for who Bills dont want and want.

 

I know very very little of this inside following of most other teams outside a few players.

 

So assigning an employee to act like a diehard fan for a few teams and sink into all this info is priceless. No one has time to do all the teams.

[mabden]

31 minutes ago, mushypeaches said:

 

I think that your logic here is accurate - the salary cap structure isn't going to tolerate having top WR's paid like QB's.  What's going to happen is that smart GM's start to understand that the incremental benefit of having a top WR isn't worth the incremental cost, and the position overall will start to get de-valued.  Similar to what happened with RB's over the last 20-25 years. 

 

It's not quite the same comparison, but the market correction will occur, and eventually teams will begin treating WR's like more "fungible" assets.  That's going to be a hard lesson to learn for top shelf WR's, but it's going to happen now that these salaries are getting downright ridiculous.  And the value of first contract WR's is going to be even more critical

 

 

I thought general consensus was a top WR will get you an additional win or two, but a top QB is worth 4 to 5 wins in a season.  Then there's Josh who is worth about 6 or 7 wins, not including playoffs.

 

As long as there is a steady stream of quality WRs coming out of college, the market will stabilize.  I also see the Adams contract an aberration from a rookie head coach.

Edited March 25, 2022 by mabden

[ColoradoBills]

5 minutes ago, mabden said:

 

Most of Hill's yards are from short passes that result in YAC, not long downfield throws.   Almost perfect for Tua's range. 

 

We'll all see how opposing D's play it.  I assume they will pinch up knowing Tua's weakness is the long ball.

Teams couldn't do that with Mahomes.  Hill will help Miami but to what degree remains to be seen.

[Warcodered]

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 hour ago, mabden said:

 

Most of Hill's yards are from short passes that result in YAC, not long downfield throws.   Almost perfect for Tua's range. 

 

Thats not really true though...

 

Hill had 444 YAC in 2021 with an ADOT of 10.4 in 2021 (Mecole hardman had more YAC on 59 catches).  He had 434 YAC and an adot of 12.9 in 2020.  

Diggs had 326 YAC with an ADOT of 11.1 in 2021.  He had 464 YAC and an ADOT of 10.1 in 2020.  

 

If they wanted a YAC guy they should have gone after Davante Adams.  They got a faster diggs with worse hands and worse route running.  He's still one of the best WRs in the NFL but he is not really a short pass guy - those guys are really precise route runners or shiftier phone booth style players.  

 

I also don't think they're running the same RPO heavy offense.  There will be deep crossers and a lot of heavy PA from under center - they likely run more of a shanahan offense.  

Edited March 25, 2022 by dneveu

[Big Turk]

5 hours ago, BuffaloBill said:

To me this is the most interesting nugget from the article:

 

”• I like the role that Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy has created on his staff, first for Ben McAdoo, and now for Brian Schottenheimer—a sort of over-the-top role to be filled by an experienced coach, to monitor trends from other teams, and help build gameplans on a week-to-week basis based on the research down on those trends, and those teams.”

 

The league tends to be a cat and mouse, you zig and I zag situation with time. Defenses adjust to what offenses are doing and vice versa - it may now be a trend to to that on a smaller scale week to week.

 

Too bad McCarthy is being exposed as a bad coach on a regular basis

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

It will be interesting to see how downgrading QBs for upgrades in contracts works over the long haul. For example DeVante and Tyreek are much more likely to be cut or moved for cap reasons if the team fails, their worth may be significantly  impaired for the next contract in this case if the lesser QB doesn’t help their stats the same way. 
 

not challenging the idea of cashing in now while the value is high, just wondering how it works out long term on average 

[Mr. WEO]

8 hours ago, H2o said:

I think Miami did this because they truly DO NOT believe in Tua and expect to be having another QB on a rookie deal here within the next 2 years. They are giving him an opportunity to show he can be the guy, but I don't think they really believe he will be the guy. 

 

Carr doesn't strike me as a person only concerned with $$$. I think he wants to win. I think that want will outweigh what people clamor he should be paid and he will accept a more team friendly deal in the mid $30M's for a couple of years to do so, giving the team some flexibility. 

 

He should instead take the money then...

[BillsShredder83]

7 hours ago, Magox said:

These new WR contracts are unsustainable.  I agree that the WR market will correct but probably not until it overinflates a little more.

 

I just don’t see how the Bills agree to a $25m + a year contract with Diggs knowing that Allen’s huge numbers are about to hit.

"Is this method of wr payouts sustainable?"

[If you get where this is from, ur kool]

[BillsShredder83]

5 hours ago, mabden said:

 

Most of Hill's yards are from short passes that result in YAC, not long downfield throws.   Almost perfect for Tua's range. 

It's not the same effect if everyone's crowding the short stuff though. U gunna completely disrespect anything that isn't short to mid. Try to jam that lil POS at the line.

 

Meanwhile Tuas already running for his life lol

[Ponch]

3 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

It will be interesting to see how downgrading QBs for upgrades in contracts works over the long haul. For example DeVante and Tyreek are much more likely to be cut or moved for cap reasons if the team fails, their worth may be significantly  impaired for the next contract in this case if the lesser QB doesn’t help their stats the same way. 
 

not challenging the idea of cashing in now while the value is high, just wondering how it works out long term on average 

That’s a very interesting take. I too have thought about that. Is it shortsighted? Or brilliant? 

[ArtVandalay]

You know how many 30 year old WR had 900+ yards last year?? 0.

 

That's all the math you need.

 

Don't sign 30+ WR to big money. 

Edited March 26, 2022 by ArtVandalay

[Richard Noggin]

7 hours ago, mabden said:

 

Most of Hill's yards are from short passes that result in YAC, not long downfield throws.   Almost perfect for Tua's range. 

I think if you dive deeper you'll see that's a more recent development. Hill in earlier years, even as far back as with Alex Smith, had a larger share of downfield production. NFL defenses forced this more recent shift to shorter, YAC-based production. (Although catching a 9-route 20 or 30 yards downfield can also result in significant YAC if he's got a step (in case the YAC-specific numbers are similar). Gotta look into avg depth of target.)

[298Woody]

The issue I have with the trade is I think is a redundant receiver to Waddle like McDermott referred to as the smurf receivers. They are both great but that is a lot of resources for one position.

[Shaw66]

17 hours ago, dneveu said:

 

Thats not really true though...

 

Hill had 444 YAC in 2021 with an ADOT of 10.4 in 2021 (Mecole hardman had more YAC on 59 catches).  He had 434 YAC and an adot of 12.9 in 2020.  

Diggs had 326 YAC with an ADOT of 11.1 in 2021.  He had 464 YAC and an ADOT of 10.1 in 2020.  

 

If they wanted a YAC guy they should have gone after Davante Adams.  They got a faster diggs with worse hands and worse route running.  He's still one of the best WRs in the NFL but he is not really a short pass guy - those guys are really precise route runners or shiftier phone booth style players.  

 

I also don't think they're running the same RPO heavy offense.  There will be deep crossers and a lot of heavy PA from under center - they likely run more of a shanahan offense.  

These comments are great.  Thanks.  I don't even know what ADOT is, but that's okay. 

 

We all know that QB is the only position that regularly affects the outcome of games for teams in the NFL.  Edge rushers and wide outs will have an impact occasionally, but not so much as to be transformative for a team, or anything close.   Once every generation or so you'll get a Jerry Rice or a Megatron, a guy who really impacts the game, but most the best receivers in any era are good but not transformative. 

 

Your post points out another thing, which is that the characteristics of all these guys are different from one another.  The Diggs-Hill comparison is a good example.   They're both great, but the differences in their games affect their importance to the offenses.  I think Hill has very good hands, but you're right, he doesn't catch like Diggs.  Hill's speed makes him special; Diggs's speed makes him a threat.  Hill is effective on short routes because the Chiefs set him up with pre-snap shifts and motion to get him a slight edge coming off the line, then he uses his speed to cross the field and no one can stay with him.  Diggs is a true separation guy - you can count on him getting off the line and creating a throwing window.   In fact, that's one of the big reasons he and Allen are so deadly together - Allen knows Diggs will get open, and Diggs uses his great catching ability to catch these rockets that are launched before Diggs even has completed his cut.  Hill can't do that.   I don't think I'd trade Diggs for Hill even up, but it's at least a discussion.   But still, neither one of those guys is the devastating generational guy like Rice.  

 

Watching the Hill saga has made me realize that Diggs could actually be gone in a couple of years.   Faced with the same problem, Beane might do what the Chiefs did.  Trust the process. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

21 hours ago, djp14150 said:

that’s  why I think Buffalo goes with WR if the Alabama player falls to them with the plan of possibly not signing resigning Diggs long term. 

 

Yep. And in an ideal world we would trade Diggs for a couple of early draft picks. Won't get the haul that the Chiefs got for Hill but even a second round pick and say a third or fourth round pick in a future draft would be something. Now if Diggs wants to sign a truly team friendly extension of only like 3 years $45 million with potential out after the 2024 season in which he would turn 32 during the 2025 season I'd be all for an extension. But the Bills will need serious flexibility. 

[DCofNC]

16 hours ago, ArtVandalay said:

You know how many 30 year old WR had 900+ yards last year?? 0.

 

That's all the math you need.

 

Don't sign 30+ WR to big money. 

I agree, you take the Bellicheck theory on WRs especially, better to lose them a year early than keep them a year too long.   Diggs is a good player and still playing at a high level, but he’s dangerously near the end of his best days.  I wouldn’t resign him, unless it’s truly a bargain.  

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

11 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

These comments are great.  Thanks.  I don't even know what ADOT is, but that's okay. 

 

We all know that QB is the only position that regularly affects the outcome of games for teams in the NFL.  Edge rushers and wide outs will have an impact occasionally, but not so much as to be transformative for a team, or anything close.   Once every generation or so you'll get a Jerry Rice or a Megatron, a guy who really impacts the game, but most the best receivers in any era are good but not transformative. 

 

Your post points out another thing, which is that the characteristics of all these guys are different from one another.  The Diggs-Hill comparison is a good example.   They're both great, but the differences in their games affect their importance to the offenses.  I think Hill has very good hands, but you're right, he doesn't catch like Diggs.  Hill's speed makes him special; Diggs's speed makes him a threat.  Hill is effective on short routes because the Chiefs set him up with pre-snap shifts and motion to get him a slight edge coming off the line, then he uses his speed to cross the field and no one can stay with him.  Diggs is a true separation guy - you can count on him getting off the line and creating a throwing window.   In fact, that's one of the big reasons he and Allen are so deadly together - Allen knows Diggs will get open, and Diggs uses his great catching ability to catch these rockets that are launched before Diggs even has completed his cut.  Hill can't do that.   I don't think I'd trade Diggs for Hill even up, but it's at least a discussion.   But still, neither one of those guys is the devastating generational guy like Rice.  

 

Watching the Hill saga has made me realize that Diggs could actually be gone in a couple of years.   Faced with the same problem, Beane might do what the Chiefs did.  Trust the process. 

 

Adot is average depth of target.

[Old Coot]

On 3/25/2022 at 3:09 PM, mushypeaches said:

I think that your logic here is accurate - the salary cap structure isn't going to tolerate having top WR's paid like QB's.  What's going to happen is that smart GM's start to understand that the incremental benefit of having a top WR isn't worth the incremental cost, and the position overall will start to get de-valued.  Similar to what happened with RB's over the last 20-25 years. 

 

It's not quite the same comparison, but the market correction will occur, and eventually teams will begin treating WR's like more "fungible" assets.  That's going to be a hard lesson to learn for top shelf WR's, but it's going to happen now that these salaries are getting downright ridiculous.  And the value of first contract WR's is going to be even more critical

This is a very interesting theory.  If the WR position gets degraded because of huge QB contracts and the RB position has already been degraded does that mean that offensive production gets degraded & defenses improve? Is this why in recent memory the NFL has tweked rules to encourage offensive production?

 

I remember when you could mug the receivers until the ball ws in the air and then mug the QB for good measure.

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, dneveu said:

 

Adot is average depth of target.

Great.  Thanks. Interesting numbers, but I'm not sure they really prove what we may think.  Frankly, I think that whatever the numbers, Hill and Diggs can hurt you all over the field.  Adams too.  They're great assets to have, but only if you have a QB.  Rather have Stafford and Kupp than Hill and Tua.  Reid will make it work without Hill, and the Bills will be fine if they have to move on from Diggs.  I'm not saying they WILL move on, just that the success of the team doesn't depend on the receiver. 

[GunnerBill]

18 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Yep. And in an ideal world we would trade Diggs for a couple of early draft picks. Won't get the haul that the Chiefs got for Hill but even a second round pick and say a third or fourth round pick in a future draft would be something. Now if Diggs wants to sign a truly team friendly extension of only like 3 years $45 million with potential out after the 2024 season in which he would turn 32 during the 2025 season I'd be all for an extension. But the Bills will need serious flexibility. 

 

The dealnto be done with Diggs is to give him more cash on the hip now, with a big number down the line that he likely doesn't get to. I do think we missed a bit of a chance last year with Diggs to do something more modest in terms of pay bump when we restructured because we had the leverage. Oh well. 

[GolfandBills]

On 3/25/2022 at 10:01 AM, mushypeaches said:

Remember when we brought in T.O. to help a young QB that didn't throw the ball downfield?

 

Remember when we drafted Sammy Watkins to help unlock EJ's potential?

 

This isn't that much different

Yeah it kinda is a lot different 

[TBBills]

On 3/25/2022 at 10:01 AM, H2o said:

I think Miami did this because they truly DO NOT believe in Tua and expect to be having another QB on a rookie deal here within the next 2 years. They are giving him an opportunity to show he can be the guy, but I don't think they really believe he will be the guy. 

 

Carr doesn't strike me as a person only concerned with $$$. I think he wants to win. I think that want will outweigh what people clamor he should be paid and he will accept a more team friendly deal in the mid $30M's for a couple of years to do so, giving the team some flexibility. 

Hill has maybe 1-2 more years of speed left at max.

[DJB]

On 3/25/2022 at 3:35 PM, mabden said:

 

Most of Hill's yards are from short passes that result in YAC, not long downfield throws.   Almost perfect for Tua's range. 

 

While true the threat of Kelce and also the deep ball from Mahomes downfield to other WR's helped Tyreek. 

 

Noodle arm Tua doesnt pose a similar threat 

Edited March 27, 2022 by DJB

[BADOLBILZ]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The dealnto be done with Diggs is to give him more cash on the hip now, with a big number down the line that he likely doesn't get to. I do think we missed a bit of a chance last year with Diggs to do something more modest in terms of pay bump when we restructured because we had the leverage. Oh well. 

 

 

Two years left on contract.........that's PLENTY of leverage.    One year.......with the WR hitting age 30 thereafter........is also PLENTY.   

 

Personally I think it's wise to let him play another season before extending..........add another WR1 potential in this draft...........before doing anything that they will regret by extending Diggs into his mid 30's with a big $ new deal.

 

I think what you saw with KC and GB were organizations with QB's with elite arm talent realizing that they can produce massive passing #'s without paying $20M+ aaa for a WR1..........see Josh Allen to Gabe Davis in the KC playoff game for an example.    And yes I know Diggs is credited for being the decoy in that game but his woeful numbers that day also underscore the concern that he isn't a RAC guy at this stage........and with a hole like that in his game he might not be viewed as being quite in the class of Adams by the Bills.

 

Now Miami on the other hand..........they need players who can make plays around a more modestly talented passer.    Basically a more likely to succeed version of what Doug Whaley tried to do by drafting Sammy Watkins for EJ Manuel........prop up a middling QB(prospect) with dynamic receiving talent. 

[transient]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The dealnto be done with Diggs is to give him more cash on the hip now, with a big number down the line that he likely doesn't get to. I do think we missed a bit of a chance last year with Diggs to do something more modest in terms of pay bump when we restructured because we had the leverage. Oh well. 

I agree with this re contact. I also think the team’s fortunes will determine how long we hold on to him. Ironically, I think he’s more valuable to the team now, on and off the field, and actually  becomes more expendable once they win a SB. Had they won one this year I think they may have been more open to trading him for picks and drafting his replacement early. 

[H2o]

4 hours ago, TBBills said:

Hill has maybe 1-2 more years of speed left at max.

He's only 28. He could still be that fast for another 4-5 years if he avoids a serious lower body injury. And even when he does "lose a step" compared to his current standard, he'll still be faster than 90% of the people playing defense in the NFL.