Spotrac has Levi Wallace valued @ $9M/yr. Thoughts?

[Estro]

I love spotrac.com, Mike Ginniti does a great job & I really like his market valuations for FAs to be.

 

He's very thorough in his breakdowns, but I think hus value for Levi is off.

 

Levi coming off of a steady 2020 season hit FA and ended up coming vacation to the Bills on a 1 yr deal that payed him a little more than $1M.  1 year later coming g off another steady year, spotrac now has Levi valued @ $9M per year.  Doesn't seem to pass the sniff test.  Levi has been a steady, solid player, but it appears no one valued him last year even @ the $2.5-3M range so I don't see how he's suddenly going to find 3x or even 4x that much on the open market.

 

I think hes worth a lot more than the $1M he played for last season, but I'd be surprised if he finds north of $6M on the open market. Don't forget teams don't love slow corners and Levi is a very limited athlete by CB standards. I think the Bills will offer him a 3 year extension in the $4M per year range and hold firm.

 

If he finds $6M or better on the open market, give me the 5th round comp. pick & find a FA vet to replace him.

 

Levi's measurable at the combine listed below, there's a reason he went undrafted

https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/levi-wallace

 

Edited February 6, 2022 by Estro

[Special K]

I don’t see the Bills spending that much to keep him....his replacement will likely come in the draft.

[No_Matter_What]

This is very interesting topic and my only contribution is that I have no idea

 

My only guess is that if WE sign him, it will not be for more than 5-6M AAV. But I have no idea how realistic that is.

Edited February 6, 2022 by No_Matter_What

[klos63]

He's a 2? season starter on a top defense at a premium position. He's gonna get a big raise. Not sure if we can afford him. Too bad, he's solid. Expect a CB in the first round.

[BarleyNY]

I was surprised both that we got him for what we did last season and what Spotrac now has him valued at.  It’s probably time to move on and draft a replacement.  We should also look for a serviceable value CB in FA.  Maybe Levi doesn’t get what he expects on the FA market.  It’s best for all to tell him to go and see what he can get, but ask him to keep us in mind when he sees what teams are offering.  Maybe it’ll be worth bringing him back.  If not, congratulate him on his new contract, thank him for what he did here and wish him well going forward. 

[ColoradoBills]

While a good argument could be made that $9M is too high it just shows that generally speaking FAs are often overpaid.

 

While there are exceptions to every rule the age old view of building through the draft and use FAs to plug holes with a select small

number of high dollar FAs seems to be true.  Well, true to me IMO.

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

Hahahaha no. 

 

I know we are a little hard on him on this board and a little quick to replace, but there is no way that we are going to shell out that kind of dough. I would much rather just draft a guy and let Dane Jackson fight it out.

[ColoradoBills]

3 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

I was surprised both that we got him for what we did last season and what Spotrac now has him valued at.  It’s probably time to move on and draft a replacement.  We should also look for a serviceable value CB in FA.  Maybe Levi doesn’t get what he expects on the FA market.  It’s best for all to tell him to go and see what he can get, but ask him to keep us in mind when he sees what teams are offering.  Maybe it’ll be worth bringing him back.  If not, congratulate him on his new contract, thank him for what he did here and wish him well going forward. 

 

With the cap getting lowered due to Covid it seems a lot of FAs were underpaid last year.

While I have just started comparing last year to this year it seems to me that there is limited amount of money chasing a lot of

FAs again this year.  I'm hoping Beane can find some good players for a reasonable cost.

[Robert Paulson]

he is better than most of this board give him credit for.  if the coaches would have allowed him to press/hold in the last 13 seconds we would be in the super bowl

 

[Punching Bag]

8 minutes ago, klos63 said:

He's a 2? season starter on a top defense at a premium position. He's gonna get a big raise. Not sure if we can afford him. Too bad, he's solid. Expect a CB in the first round.

 

I have been hearing that people expect him to be replaced with 1st round CB.

I cannot see Beane investing another 1st round pick on CB when he is paying for one not on rookie CB contract and has paid for Johnson.  

Major reason for 1st round players is 5th year option but I do not see advantage here.  Maybe a 2nd round pick as CB.

[ColoradoBills]

2 minutes ago, Robert Paulson said:

he is better than most of this board give him credit for.  if the coaches would have allowed him to press/hold in the last 13 seconds we would be in the super bowl

 

 

Could very well be true RP.  

[frostbitmic]

Sportrac doesn't have to pay Levi, if they did have to pay him, it wouldn't be anywhere near 9M.

 

Offer him 4yrs/14M. If he accepts it, welcome back. If he finds a better payday elsewhere, thanks for your services.

 

I think CB is at or near the top of the Bills draft list.

[ColoradoBills]

1 minute ago, Limeaid said:

 

I have been hearing that people expect him to be replaced with 1st round CB.

I cannot see Beane investing another 1st round pick on CB when he is paying for one not on rookie CB contract and has paid for Johnson.  

Major reason for 1st round players is 5th year option but I do not see advantage here.  Maybe a 2nd round pick as CB.

 

There does seems to some evidence that they can pick out CB talent very well.  If that is the case, you make a great point.

[billsbackto81]

9 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

I was surprised both that we got him for what we did last season and what Spotrac now has him valued at.  It’s probably time to move on and draft a replacement.  We should also look for a serviceable value CB in FA.  Maybe Levi doesn’t get what he expects on the FA market.  It’s best for all to tell him to go and see what he can get, but ask him to keep us in mind when he sees what teams are offering.  Maybe it’ll be worth bringing him back.  If not, congratulate him on his new contract, thank him for what he did here and wish him well going forward. 

Why? He was a UFA last year and nobody was knocking down his door. At least this year he was able to show more ability due to Tre going down and will likely get a decent bump in salary somewhere if not in Buffalo. 

 

He's just one of those players that means more to us than some other team. How much more? 9 mil? 

 

Woof!! Good luck Levi.....

[Warcodered]

22 minutes ago, Estro said:

I love spotrac.com, Mike Ginniti does a great job & I really like his market valuations for FAs to be.

 

He's very thorough in his breakdowns, but I think hus value for Levi is off.

 

Levi coming off of a steady 2020 season hit FA and ended up coming vacation to the Bills on a 1 yr deal that payed him a little more than $1M.  1 year later coming g off another steady year, spotrac now has Levi valued @ $9M per year.  Doesn't seem to pass the sniff test.  Levi has been a steady, solid player, but it appears no one valued him last year even @ the $2.5-3M range so I don't see how he's suddenly going to find 3x or even 4x that much on the open market.

 

I think hes worth a lot more than the $1M he played for last season, but I'd be surprised if he finds north of $6M on the open market. Don't forget teams don't love slow corners and Levi is a very limited athlete by CB standards. I think the Bills will offer him a 3 year extension in the $4M per year range and hold firm.

 

If he finds $6M or better on the open market, give me the 5th round comp. pick & find a FA vet to replace him.

 

Levi's measurable at the combine listed below, there's a reason he went undrafted

https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/levi-wallace

 

I mean the difference between that year and this one is White went down and Levi had to fill in at CB1 and the defense didn't seem to have a huge drop off.

[Punching Bag]

1 minute ago, Warcodered said:

I mean the difference between that year and this one is White went down and Levi had to fill in at CB1 and the defense didn't seem to have a huge drop off.

 

There was not a huge drop off when our safeties and Milano could cover but against better teams there was definitely a big impact.

[Bangarang]

4 minutes ago, frostbitmic said:

Sportrac doesn't have to pay Levi, if they did have to pay him, it wouldn't be anywhere near 9M.

 

Offer him 4yrs/14M. If he accepts it, welcome back. If he finds a better payday elsewhere, thanks for your services.

 

I think CB is at or near the top of the Bills draft list.

That’s such an insulting offer that would never even get presented. 

[BarleyNY]

12 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

With the cap getting lowered due to Covid it seems a lot of FAs were underpaid last year.

While I have just started comparing last year to this year it seems to me that there is limited amount of money chasing a lot of

FAs again this year.  I'm hoping Beane can find some good players for a reasonable cost.

That’s a good point about the cap decreasing last season.  A lot of FAs did what Wallace did - took a cheap one year deal with an eye on getting paid this year.  That’s a good reason to expect him to leave.  He had to wait an extra year to finally get his payday, so I’m sure that will be of utmost importance to him this off-season. 
 

As for available FA money this year, a lot it teams kicked cap from last year to this year to smooth out their cap hit curve.  I expect that to taper a bit, but there will be more of it this off-season.  Plus soon teams will create a lot of space through cuts, restructures, etc. 

Edited February 6, 2022 by BarleyNY

[klos63]

7 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

 

I have been hearing that people expect him to be replaced with 1st round CB.

I cannot see Beane investing another 1st round pick on CB when he is paying for one not on rookie CB contract and has paid for Johnson.  

Major reason for 1st round players is 5th year option but I do not see advantage here.  Maybe a 2nd round pick as CB.

have to also keep in mind , no guarantee that Tre will be back to start the season or if he is up to his All Pro quality. I read a report after his injury discussing NFL players returning from ACL, other than QB's. They rarely come back with the same quality as before the injury.

[frostbitmic]

5 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

 

I have been hearing that people expect him to be replaced with 1st round CB.

I cannot see Beane investing another 1st round pick on CB when he is paying for one not on rookie CB contract and has paid for Johnson.  

Major reason for 1st round players is 5th year option but I do not see advantage here.  Maybe a 2nd round pick as CB.

I think that this is the perfect time to draft a 1st round CB. Drafting one in the first gives you the 5th year option, plus by the time a CB would need to get paid, Tre's big contract would be in the past.

 

We also don't know when Tre' will be ready to return and Levi could be out of our price range.

[MasterStrategist]

Solid player, in our scheme, but with limitations.  

 

I'd let him walk if he's over $5m, I'd bring him back at that price for 1 yr.  He's EJ Gaines 2.0 IMO, can be a good fit in a cover 3 scheme but isn't going to turn and run with big Wrs or be a man guy on quick receivers. 

 

 

[ColoradoBills]

5 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

That’s a good point about the cap decreasing last season.  A lot of FAs did what Wallace did - took a cheap one year deal with an eye on getting paid this year.  That’s a good reason to expect him to leave.  He had to wait an extra year to finally get his payday, so I’m sure that will be of utmost importance to him this off-season. 

 

An extreme example is the Chiefs and Orlando Brown last season.  He signed a $3.4M one year contract.

Spotrac has his FA value at $23.3M this year.  Whether or not people think he's worth that, he sure is getting a lot more than $3.4M.

[Nextmanup]

40 minutes ago, Special K said:

I don’t see the Bills spending that much to keep him....his replacement will likely come in the draft.

I like Levi a LOT, but this is how I see it as well.

 

I think he's gone.

 

 

[Pete]

I will take the over for $9million for Levi.  Sure he is scheme limited, but there is a dearth of CBs in NFL.  Not to mention it is a passing league, with many teams running trips or 4 WR sets.  As Marv once said, you can never have enough CBs.  And he said that 30 years ago- its more true today.  Levi has always proved doubters wrong his whole life.  And Levi filled in admirably after us losing Tre.  We had #1 pass defense in NFL.  Levi about to get paid!

[Alphadawg7]

Levi will have more attention and suitors this year, that’s just a fact.  
 

He was #2 corner on the number 1 rated passing defense and overall defense.  
 

Defense still played at that level even after losing Tre White and forcing Levi into the #1 CB spot.  
 

He’s had 2 good seasons back to back as a starter, including this past season that was arguably very good.

 

News Flash:  Levi is definitely better than a lot of people give him credit for around here.  
 

Now, doesn’t mean he will get $9M, but I am confident he’s going to get a lot more interest.  So I would be shocked if his best offer was $4M a year as the OP suggests and think he will see offers starting at $6M+ personally and wouldn’t surprise me to see a team consider $8M+.  
 

I do however believe he wants to stay in Buffalo (I’m still in touch with his best friends from college, and they say his heart is in Buffalo and loves it there and wants to stay) and Beane wants him back.  So I think a home town discount is certainly in play and can see him taking less money to stay.

 

I don’t think Beane will go any higher than $5m to 6m with the contract Tre already has and the other holes we need to fill.

[gobills404]

31 minutes ago, Robert Paulson said:

he is better than most of this board give him credit for.  if the coaches would have allowed him to press/hold in the last 13 seconds we would be in the super bowl

 

Most people on this board think he's a good but limited player. He's not good in press (or man coverage in general) because of his poor athleticism. Even when tre white is healthy having a corner with 4.6 speed limits what coverages you can run.

[Rc2catch]

Levi has been the BEST bargain since the day he came here and started as a rookie as far as salary and production. Look around the league and find a cheaper starter that can play at his level. We know he’s not elite, that he has some limitations to his game. He deserves a really nice pay raise, and it probably won’t be here. He has never been as easily upgradeable as some make it seem. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

58 minutes ago, Estro said:

I love spotrac.com, Mike Ginniti does a great job & I really like his market valuations for FAs to be.

 

He's very thorough in his breakdowns, but I think hus value for Levi is off.

 

Levi coming off of a steady 2020 season hit FA and ended up coming vacation to the Bills on a 1 yr deal that payed him a little more than $1M.  1 year later coming g off another steady year, spotrac now has Levi valued @ $9M per year.  Doesn't seem to pass the sniff test.  Levi has been a steady, solid player, but it appears no one valued him last year even @ the $2.5-3M range so I don't see how he's suddenly going to find 3x or even 4x that much on the open market.

 

I think hes worth a lot more than the $1M he played for last season, but I'd be surprised if he finds north of $6M on the open market. Don't forget teams don't love slow corners and Levi is a very limited athlete by CB standards. I think the Bills will offer him a 3 year extension in the $4M per year range and hold firm.

 

If he finds $6M or better on the open market, give me the 5th round comp. pick & find a FA vet to replace him.

 

Levi's measurable at the combine listed below, there's a reason he went undrafted

https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/levi-wallace

 

 

I agree, Wallace is worth a lot more than what he played for last season.   The difference between last season and this season is that Levi clearly took a step. 

 

Remember at the start of the 2020 season when the Dolphins were "picking" on Wallace and Frazier said after the game "Levi needs to make a play, then they'll stop picking on him"?  Remember after the 2020 season when Beane said it would be a "conversation" who started between Dane Jackson and Wallace?

 

Yeah, no more of that this season and Wallace shut that convo down quickly in training camp.  Then Wallace stepped up again Week 12 when Tre White went out.

 

He has said he considers himself one of the best off-ball corners in the league.  That may even be true, but what's the FA market for an off-ball corner who really can not play man?

 

I love Spotrac too, but I think Wallace falls into a category of players Spotrac overvalued the last couple of years.  I think in large part, this is fallout from the Cap Crunch.  Fundamentally, the Stars still get paid - the Rookie wage scale is fixed - and the "Middle Class", the guys who can Ball but are not Stars - got squeezed.  And while the cap has gone up, there's still fallout from last season, because a lot of players took 1 year deals that were structured to look like 2 or 3 year deals and shift part of their cap hit into this season.  Other players restructured to "kick the can forward" into this year and the next few years.

 

So the question for Wallace (and the Bills, assuming they'd like to have him back) is what teams are his market, and how do they value him relative to other needs?

 

I don't think Spotrac's market valuation is designed to address that sort of issue.

 

Spotrac has him valued almost at the level of Charvarius Ward, and I don't see that.

[TheBeaneBandit]

I like ole Levi and all , but we gotta get faster in the secondary. The new guy has to be a good player of course, but we need speed bad.

[Joe Mama]

Soo.... how much more for JC Jackson instead?

[mushypeaches]

Levi Wallace has this one chance in his life to get a multi-year contract.  He's proven beyond a doubt, that despite his draft standing and limited athleticism, that he is worth one

 

He's going to get that contract for way more than he's ever made in a year

 

We won't be the ones giving it to him

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 minutes ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

I like ole Levi and all , but we gotta get faster in the secondary. The new guy has to be a good player of course, but we need speed bad.

 

We need speed, we also need a guy who can be physical on the line without becoming toast.  People were all "why did we give KC's receivers a free release, why didn't we jam them on the line?" and the answer is "because Wallace and Jackson can't get physical on the line without the risk they'll be beaten like drums"

 

I believe we'll make a push to bring Levi back, even if we are looking at CB in the draft, especially given the situation with Tre White where he may not be ready to start the season, and may not be back to his previous level all season. 

 

But we may well be outbid.  I just don't have a good sense for what the market for Levi's skill set will be around the league.

 

And if there's one position group where I have confidence in McDermott, Frazier, and John Butler to develop a player into a solid starter, that would be CB.

 

8 minutes ago, Joe Mama said:

Soo.... how much more for JC Jackson instead?

 

Spotrac values Jackson at $20.9M/ yr.  5 years, $104.7M.

They have Charvarius Ward at $9.9M/ yr, 4 years, $39.6M.

[njbuff]

Bye.

[Captain_Quint]

I think with Tre recovering for the first half of the season, it bodes well for Levi.

I don't think that he will get near $9million, but I could see a 3/yr $15million with 10 guaranteed in the first two years.

I don't think you go longterm with Levi, which means you go higher guaranteed money and an out in the last year. 

[Doc]

Someone will pay it.  And with him making so little these past 4 years, he'll take it.  The Bills need to plan like he'll be gone.

[Beast]

Levi Wallace has been a very good player for the Bills. Some team is going to pay him.

4 minutes ago, Doc said:

Someone will pay it.  And with him making so little these past 4 years, he'll take it.  The Bills need to plan like he'll be gone.

 

Agreed.

 

If the value is there with CB at 25, I believe that player needs to be our selection. Especially with White recovering from an ACL.

Edited February 6, 2022 by Beast

[gordong]

9 per No HELL NO,  bye bye

[Big Blitz]

So we're going to start 2022 down our top 2 CBs.  Wonderful.  

 

Yea I think I know what our first pick will be.

 

Just trade up if you have to get the guy you want don't force it by hoping the 4th CB taken in round 1 is the guy.

[Estro]

If the over/under on Levi Wallace's new APY was set @ $8.99M.....I guess my point is I'd hammer the under. I just can't see an avg. CB with well below avg athletic traits who struggles in man coverage getting $9-10M a yr.

[Boatdrinks]

At that price it’s a pass for sure.