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Voice of the Eagles Merrill Reese: the word is Bills are close to finalizing deal with Zach Ertz


Message added by Hapless Bills Fan,

There are certain topics that have been "done to death" here recently.  The horse is dead and has been thoroughly beaten and flayed. 

Everybody and his Cat have had more than enough chance to express their personal viewpoint - Over.  and Over.  And Over.  again. 

 

Every aspect of the situation has been discussed - several times.  Let me say that again:  EVERY ASPECT of the situation has been discussed, several times.

 

In theory, it should be fine, we should be able to talk about it.  In practice, people tend to lose their temper on these threads, start slinging insults back and forth.  Others get into General Political or Covid discussion, against Scott's pinned request (which is there for good reason). 

 

It makes work for the Mods who would rather be drinking beer and watching the 'maters grow, or napping.

 

If you're here long enough to start threads, you know to search before starting new topics, so if you don't already know there have been umpteen Beasley's Tweets and Ertz Trade threads that have all wound up locked for going "off the rails", you should be able to figure it out.

 

Start a new thread right after another has been locked, Be Very Careful - you take your chances on warnings/suspensions from Mods.

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7 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

In the last 4 years, minus last year because he was injured and had bad QB play, here are Ertz's numbers:

 

88 catches, 916 yards and 10.4 average.

116 catches, 1163 yards and 10.0 average.

74 catches, 824 yards and 11.1 average

78 catches, 816 yards and 10.5 average.

 

Dawson Knox with Allen throwing to him:

24 catches, 288 yards and 12.0 average.  (missed 4 games)

28 catches, 388 and 13.9 average.

 

Career catch% 

Ertz - 67%

Knox - 55%

 

giphy.gif


 

 

The numbers are all there and all correct, but he was on a team during that time that had very limited WRs and a QB and system designed to use the TE.

 

I am fairly certain that if Ertz was given the same number of targets as Knox - let’s say last years 44 targets - his numbers don’t look the same as in Philadelphia.  
 

So let’s say we forget Ertz last year - where his catch % was 50% and actually below Knox’s - we call last year the outlier for him and look at 2019.

 

Ertz - 135 targets, 88 catches, 65% catch percentage, 916 yards, 10.4 Y/R, and 6 TDs.

 

Now let’s look at Knox if he got that kind of volume targets using his career average:

 

Knox - on 135 targets - 76 catches, 56% catch percentage, 988 yards, 13.0 Y/R and 8 TDs.

 

The difference between them would be 12 catches and Ertz would put up fewer yards and TDs - not exactly a huge advantage for Ertz - plus Ertz played mostly as essentially a split out TE - more of a WR not a blocking role as the Bills use the TE.  So let’s say we move Ertz into the current Bills offense and gave him a similar role to Knox and Kroft and gave Ertz those targets using his 2019 numbers.

 

Kroft and Knox 2020 - 50 Targets, 36 catches, 407 yards, 6 Tds

 

Now Ertz numbers with those Targets:

 

Ertz - 50 targets, 33 catches, 343 yards, 4 TDs

 

He actually produced less than Kroft and Knox combined.

 

 

Look I don’t care either way on Ertz - to me he is no more or less a threat than what they had - the difference is all about volume.  If Ertz comes in - how many targets does he get and where do they come from.  Is he playing a role similar to Knox and Kroft or are they playing him in a role similar to his time in Philadelphia or more Kelce role?  If we are giving him more targets - what WR are they coming from because his numbers are significantly worse than the WRs - so taking catches from them is a downgrade.

 

The most important thing though is what are you giving up and paying for different piece - again to me although the play different positions- Ertz was Philadelphia’s Beasley - not Knox - and therefore that is the impact that will be felt.  Beasley played the slot get open and get a first down role that Ertz had in Philadelphia and basically Beasley puts up just slightly better numbers than Ertz on average in Buffalo in that role.
 

 

 

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13 hours ago, Boxcar said:

I hate Howie Roseman. I've seen some stubborn GMs but this clown is delusional.

Ever go to a garage sale, and see the old codger selling a rusted ViseGrip for about fifty cents less than you can buy one new at Valu?  That's Roseman.

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9 hours ago, driddles said:

It was fun while it lasted.  See you all in tomorrow's Zach Ertz thread.

🎶We love you Zachary,

Oh yes we do!🎵

🎶We don't know anyone

We love like you🎵
🎶When you don't have a thread,

We're blue!🎵

🎶Zach Ertz, we love you!🎵

*
(It helps if you've seen 'Bye Bye Birdie'.)

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9 hours ago, Blainorama5 said:

That's a big leap to think Beasley is automatically gone regardless if Ertz is signed or not.  You want to stockpile weapons if you're serious about making a SB run this year!  Plain and simple.  You won't find an Ertz on the wire mid to late season.  He's your insurance for either Beasley or Sanders getting hurt.

This makes more sense than just adding Ertz. 

We need CB, as was proven last yr by adding an old Norman who weakly helped. 

Weapons we now have with Sanders and Hodgins added. Ertz is good but cap dollars are precious and injuries in camp happen and we flexibility.

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9 hours ago, Paul Costa said:

This screams their moving on from Beasley if Ertz is signed. If Beasley is there not enough touches for Knox, Hollister & Ertz. I’m sad to even say this but Beasley’s days are numbered in Buffalo 


I agree. Beasley made HIMSELF the issue. Now that the Bills can gain almost a foot in height for the cold, windy, snowy half of the Season at O.P., I am delighted. Get er done and see you, anti vax fool!

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5 hours ago, MJS said:

Wow, that's just not even close to accurate. They play different positions!

 

And what's with all this Hollister stuff? People read a couple of reports that he was playing well in OTA's so now he is a major contributor?

It’s pretty obvious they play two different positions 🤦‍♂️. My point is that Hollister & Ertz are similar. Why even bring in Ertz. Makes no sense. Unless you may lose arguably the best slot guy in the NFL right now to retirement. Who’s going to replace that. Some rookie or a guy we’ve had on the practice squad? Ertz would give the bills a proven pass catcher. More 12 personnel. Just another layer to prepare for.   Can flex TE’s out wide more often. Beasley is going to be a huge loss to this football team to me. Just rewatched Cards & Championship game this week. I don’t believe we can replace him with a jag. 

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43 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:


 

 

The numbers are all there and all correct, but he was on a team during that time that had very limited WRs and a QB and system designed to use the TE.

 

I am fairly certain that if Ertz was given the same number of targets as Knox - let’s say last years 44 targets - his numbers don’t look the same as in Philadelphia.  
 

So let’s say we forget Ertz last year - where his catch % was 50% and actually below Knox’s - we call last year the outlier for him and look at 2019.

 

Ertz - 135 targets, 88 catches, 65% catch percentage, 916 yards, 10.4 Y/R, and 6 TDs.

 

Now let’s look at Knox if he got that kind of volume targets using his career average:

 

Knox - on 135 targets - 76 catches, 56% catch percentage, 988 yards, 13.0 Y/R and 8 TDs.

 

The difference between them would be 12 catches and Ertz would put up fewer yards and TDs - not exactly a huge advantage for Ertz - plus Ertz played mostly as essentially a split out TE - more of a WR not a blocking role as the Bills use the TE.  So let’s say we move Ertz into the current Bills offense and gave him a similar role to Knox and Kroft and gave Ertz those targets using his 2019 numbers.

 

Kroft and Knox 2020 - 50 Targets, 36 catches, 407 yards, 6 Tds

 

Now Ertz numbers with those Targets:

 

Ertz - 50 targets, 33 catches, 343 yards, 4 TDs

 

He actually produced less than Kroft and Knox combined.

 

 

Look I don’t care either way on Ertz - to me he is no more or less a threat than what they had - the difference is all about volume.  If Ertz comes in - how many targets does he get and where do they come from.  Is he playing a role similar to Knox and Kroft or are they playing him in a role similar to his time in Philadelphia or more Kelce role?  If we are giving him more targets - what WR are they coming from because his numbers are significantly worse than the WRs - so taking catches from them is a downgrade.

 

The most important thing though is what are you giving up and paying for different piece - again to me although the play different positions- Ertz was Philadelphia’s Beasley - not Knox - and therefore that is the impact that will be felt.  Beasley played the slot get open and get a first down role that Ertz had in Philadelphia and basically Beasley puts up just slightly better numbers than Ertz on average in Buffalo in that role.
 

 

 


Yes true but wouldn’t you think that we would go to Ertz more?  Beane said we essentially got nothing out of our TE last year and doesn’t sound out of design.  Being that we supposedly want Ertz, we want to change that.

 

I certainly think he won’t have the elite numbers as he did in Philly because like you say, Philly didn’t have as many weapons….but also didn’t have the QB.  I think around 50-55 catches is accurate.  I think he would be closer to 600 yards.  I think a little more TD’s as well.

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Beasley may come to his senses and follow protocols or even take the vaccine 💉. But Beane can’t wait around to see if some Texas redneck is going to take a stand for all the anti vaxer’s out there. Seems very selfish to me. I have my opinion and so does Cole. I want the Bills to win the Super Bowl this year. Does he even care? He has 100% of a opportunity to get us there. I just watch 😃

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1 hour ago, 4merper4mer said:

The Eagles games are readily available on replay if you look hard enough.


Watched a few of their games and never saw low effort or a poor attitude. Should be easy to cite your claims

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13 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I hadn't thought of it that way, but it's a fair point where Knox, Kroft, and Smith were concerned.

 

On the other hand, I believe the Bills feel that Sanders is at least equal to John Brown, who saw 52 targets last season.  And your comparison doesn't sound as impressive if you say "if Ertz takes the 2020 targets from Knox, Kroft and Smith, that's 58 targets....."

This.

 

The fact that those 3 only had 58 targets shows how badly we need a pass catching tight end. There is little doubt that a healthy Ertz on the field, Allen will go to him a lot more. So replacing partial targets is not the way to look at it - since there is endogeneity with targets and personnel.

 

 

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Fool me once shame on ...

 

Per Sports Illustrated the "source" stated that he had read it a few weeks ago and reiterated he has no inside information.

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/bills/news/latest-zach-ertz-trade-rumors-based-only-on-what-eagles-broadcaster-read-weeks-ago

 

He likely was reading the third TBD Ertz to Buffalo threads.

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1 hour ago, Rochesterfan said:


 

 

The numbers are all there and all correct, but he was on a team during that time that had very limited WRs and a QB and system designed to use the TE.

 

I am fairly certain that if Ertz was given the same number of targets as Knox - let’s say last years 44 targets - his numbers don’t look the same as in Philadelphia.  
 

So let’s say we forget Ertz last year - where his catch % was 50% and actually below Knox’s - we call last year the outlier for him and look at 2019.

 

Ertz - 135 targets, 88 catches, 65% catch percentage, 916 yards, 10.4 Y/R, and 6 TDs.

 

Now let’s look at Knox if he got that kind of volume targets using his career average:

 

Knox - on 135 targets - 76 catches, 56% catch percentage, 988 yards, 13.0 Y/R and 8 TDs.

 

The difference between them would be 12 catches and Ertz would put up fewer yards and TDs - not exactly a huge advantage for Ertz - plus Ertz played mostly as essentially a split out TE - more of a WR not a blocking role as the Bills use the TE.  So let’s say we move Ertz into the current Bills offense and gave him a similar role to Knox and Kroft and gave Ertz those targets using his 2019 numbers.

 

Kroft and Knox 2020 - 50 Targets, 36 catches, 407 yards, 6 Tds

 

Now Ertz numbers with those Targets:

 

Ertz - 50 targets, 33 catches, 343 yards, 4 TDs

 

He actually produced less than Kroft and Knox combined.

 

 

Look I don’t care either way on Ertz - to me he is no more or less a threat than what they had - the difference is all about volume.  If Ertz comes in - how many targets does he get and where do they come from.  Is he playing a role similar to Knox and Kroft or are they playing him in a role similar to his time in Philadelphia or more Kelce role?  If we are giving him more targets - what WR are they coming from because his numbers are significantly worse than the WRs - so taking catches from them is a downgrade.

 

The most important thing though is what are you giving up and paying for different piece - again to me although the play different positions- Ertz was Philadelphia’s Beasley - not Knox - and therefore that is the impact that will be felt.  Beasley played the slot get open and get a first down role that Ertz had in Philadelphia and basically Beasley puts up just slightly better numbers than Ertz on average in Buffalo in that role.
 

 

 

So, we have cap money to potentially spend in 2021. What does this team need most, a TE or CB. Ertz or Gilmore type?

Ertz is a luxury, CB is a necessity.

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57 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:


Yes true but wouldn’t you think that we would go to Ertz more?  Beane said we essentially got nothing out of our TE last year and doesn’t sound out of design.  Being that we supposedly want Ertz, we want to change that.

 

I certainly think he won’t have the elite numbers as he did in Philly because like you say, Philly didn’t have as many weapons….but also didn’t have the QB.  I think around 50-55 catches is accurate.  I think he would be closer to 600 yards.  I think a little more TD’s as well.


 

It depends upon where those catches are coming from.  Zach Ertz is not as good of a receiving threat as Diggs, Beasley, Sanders, or Gabriel Davis - so with the limited number of passes per game (averaged 38 last year) - 

 

Diggs - ~ 11 per game

Sanders - ~ 6 per game

Beasley - ~ 7 per game

Davis - ~ 4 per game

RB’s and McKenzie -~ 5 per game

That leaves you about 5 targets per games and if they all went to Ertz with his career catch % that would get him 50 catches.  My guess is he would not be the only TE targeted so probably 1/3 go to Knox, Hollister, Sweeney- so Ertz would be in the 35 catch range. 
 

If we want him in the 50-55 catch range - then you are pulling targets from Beasley, Sanders, and Davis to feed Ertz and that is a net negative to the offense.  I also do not want to give up assets or pay significant money to Ertz for a 50 catch season.  That is what we got from the TEs last year at a better rate of return with no added cost.

 

I agree that the FO said they got little out of the TE, but they also said the running game struggled and they wanted to improve, but brought back the same o-line and RBs basically.  So yes I think they would like more out of the TE position, but I am not sure it comes from an acquisition like Ertz more an adjustment to game planning.

 

I guess the final thing I would say about this is if I am an opposing defense - I would rather see the Bills throw to Ertz over Diggs, Beasley, Sanders and Davis.  I wouldn’t really adjust coverage to accommodate for Ertz because he is less of a threat than those other guys.  He is also less of a blocker than the other TEs so he helps less on the running plays.  If we decided to run more 2 TE sets you are pulling talented WRs off the field for lesser players including Ertz.  In Philadelphia- Ertz was the best receiver they had for several years or at least top 2 which is why he got the targets.  In Buffalo he comes in as the 5th best target at best and should get targets commensurate with that level of talent.
 

 

 

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16 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I propose that if Ertz is not traded to the Bills in the next 48 hours, we all agree to stop posting rumors from this fake account.

My only question is where do Beasley’s targets go if he retires?

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14 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:


 

It depends upon where those catches are coming from.  Zach Ertz is not as good of a receiving threat as Diggs, Beasley, Sanders, or Gabriel Davis - so with the limited number of passes per game (averaged 38 last year) - 

 

Diggs - ~ 11 per game

Sanders - ~ 6 per game

Beasley - ~ 7 per game

Davis - ~ 4 per game

RB’s and McKenzie -~ 5 per game

That leaves you about 5 targets per games and if they all went to Ertz with his career catch % that would get him 50 catches.  My guess is he would not be the only TE targeted so probably 1/3 go to Knox, Hollister, Sweeney- so Ertz would be in the 35 catch range. 
 

If we want him in the 50-55 catch range - then you are pulling targets from Beasley, Sanders, and Davis to feed Ertz and that is a net negative to the offense.  I also do not want to give up assets or pay significant money to Ertz for a 50 catch season.  That is what we got from the TEs last year at a better rate of return with no added cost.

 

I agree that the FO said they got little out of the TE, but they also said the running game struggled and they wanted to improve, but brought back the same o-line and RBs basically.  So yes I think they would like more out of the TE position, but I am not sure it comes from an acquisition like Ertz more an adjustment to game planning.

 

I guess the final thing I would say about this is if I am an opposing defense - I would rather see the Bills throw to Ertz over Diggs, Beasley, Sanders and Davis.  I wouldn’t really adjust coverage to accommodate for Ertz because he is less of a threat than those other guys.  He is also less of a blocker than the other TEs so he helps less on the running plays.  If we decided to run more 2 TE sets you are pulling talented WRs off the field for lesser players including Ertz.  In Philadelphia- Ertz was the best receiver they had for several years or at least top 2 which is why he got the targets.  In Buffalo he comes in as the 5th best target at best and should get targets commensurate with that level of talent.
 

 

 

 

I certainly think Diggs catches will drop this season.  His 127 catches last year was 6th all time so I think you can expect a slight drop but he's also Diggs...who knows.

I don't think we necessarily have to think that getting more targets to Ertz means everyone else will have have a reduced number.  We were at 46% 3rd down conversion which I believe was around 5th and 15th in total offensive plays.  If we move the ball even better....that's more opportunities for everyone.

https://www.footballdb.com/stats/play-selection.html

I don't think Ertz is that game breaker, vertical threat.  I think he's the chain mover and redzone target.  

 

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35 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I propose that if Ertz is not traded to the Bills in the next 48 hours, we all agree to stop posting rumors from this fake account.

I think it’s going to happen within the next week or so. Where there’s smoke, there’s fire. Beane did free up quite a bit of cap space as well when he converted much of Diggs salary into a bonus, so clearly he’s making room for a reason. 

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Which do get get first - Ertz or Dr Dre's Detox?

 

To be fair we DID get G'nR's Chinese Democracy, just took a million years and didn't quite have the permanence of their other records.  Much like Ertz I'm sure...

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5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

The guy is so green the fact he wasn't particularly good last year doesn't tell you whether or not he'll be good this year.

 

Yeah he could develop. He has all the tools. But this team is too good to cross our fingers on an important position that has given us well below average production over the past two seasons. This isnt the drought era Bills, we don't need to convince ourselves bad players are sure to get better. Knox last year was a bad player. And personally I didn't see him show any kind of meaningful progress that makes me think he is trending upwards. I'd love to see him take a big step forward this year but I'm not banking on it. Ertz would be an immediate upgrade.

 

I have a similar concern with Edmunds but I don't see an immediate way to upgrade him. And at least Edmunds showed progress from 2018 to 2019, before regressing last year after his injury. I haven't seen that progress from Knox at any point.

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2 hours ago, Billsatlastin2018 said:


I agree. Beasley made HIMSELF the issue. Now that the Bills can gain almost a foot in height for the cold, windy, snowy half of the Season at O.P., I am delighted. Get er done and see you, anti vax fool!

Yes, that was the problem, Beasley not catching the ball when it was thrown his way. What a genius.

 

May I also remind the militant vaxxers that Beasley played on a freaking broken leg for this team. Just because you disagree with him on one issue doesn't mean that now he's some expendable, average player who doesn't care about the team. He's the second best receiver on a top 3 offense, and the best slot receiver in the NFL.

 

An Ertz acquisition has nothing to do with Beasley considering they have been trying to get him for months.

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1 hour ago, Rochesterfan said:


 

It depends upon where those catches are coming from.  Zach Ertz is not as good of a receiving threat as Diggs, Beasley, Sanders, or Gabriel Davis - so with the limited number of passes per game (averaged 38 last year) - 

 

Diggs - ~ 11 per game

Sanders - ~ 6 per game

Beasley - ~ 7 per game

Davis - ~ 4 per game

RB’s and McKenzie -~ 5 per game

That leaves you about 5 targets per games and if they all went to Ertz with his career catch % that would get him 50 catches.  My guess is he would not be the only TE targeted so probably 1/3 go to Knox, Hollister, Sweeney- so Ertz would be in the 35 catch range. 
 

If we want him in the 50-55 catch range - then you are pulling targets from Beasley, Sanders, and Davis to feed Ertz and that is a net negative to the offense.  I also do not want to give up assets or pay significant money to Ertz for a 50 catch season.  That is what we got from the TEs last year at a better rate of return with no added cost.

 

I agree that the FO said they got little out of the TE, but they also said the running game struggled and they wanted to improve, but brought back the same o-line and RBs basically.  So yes I think they would like more out of the TE position, but I am not sure it comes from an acquisition like Ertz more an adjustment to game planning.

 

I guess the final thing I would say about this is if I am an opposing defense - I would rather see the Bills throw to Ertz over Diggs, Beasley, Sanders and Davis.  I wouldn’t really adjust coverage to accommodate for Ertz because he is less of a threat than those other guys.  He is also less of a blocker than the other TEs so he helps less on the running plays.  If we decided to run more 2 TE sets you are pulling talented WRs off the field for lesser players including Ertz.  In Philadelphia- Ertz was the best receiver they had for several years or at least top 2 which is why he got the targets.  In Buffalo he comes in as the 5th best target at best and should get targets commensurate with that level of talent.
 

 

 


I am skeptical Sanders gets 6 targets a game.  While he’s a good addition, he’s also not as productive anymore and has no experience with Josh or Daboll complicated offense.  I expect Davis to start over him personally.  
 

Ertz won’t be featured like Philly when he was a key focal point, we just have too many other weapons.  The importance of Ertz is to have a reliable guy who makes plays when called upon.   He is also a great mentor for Knox too.  
 

End of the day, Ertz will be a fantastic add to this team giving Allen another weapon who can be counted on that the defense has to respect and that can contribute to Knox reaching his potential too.  
 

His year end totals don’t matter, he makes this team better by just being on the roster.  I would 100% prefer to have Ertz at TE when we face teams like KC, Cle, or Titans in the AFCCG with a Super Bowl birth on the line.  

 

Get it done Beane.  

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1 hour ago, Rochesterfan said:


 

It depends upon where those catches are coming from.  Zach Ertz is not as good of a receiving threat as Diggs, Beasley, Sanders, or Gabriel Davis - so with the limited number of passes per game (averaged 38 last year) - 

 

Diggs - ~ 11 per game

Sanders - ~ 6 per game

Beasley - ~ 7 per game

Davis - ~ 4 per game

RB’s and McKenzie -~ 5 per game

That leaves you about 5 targets per games and if they all went to Ertz with his career catch % that would get him 50 catches.  My guess is he would not be the only TE targeted so probably 1/3 go to Knox, Hollister, Sweeney- so Ertz would be in the 35 catch range. 
 

If we want him in the 50-55 catch range - then you are pulling targets from Beasley, Sanders, and Davis to feed Ertz and that is a net negative to the offense.  I also do not want to give up assets or pay significant money to Ertz for a 50 catch season.  That is what we got from the TEs last year at a better rate of return with no added cost.

 

I agree that the FO said they got little out of the TE, but they also said the running game struggled and they wanted to improve, but brought back the same o-line and RBs basically.  So yes I think they would like more out of the TE position, but I am not sure it comes from an acquisition like Ertz more an adjustment to game planning.

 

I guess the final thing I would say about this is if I am an opposing defense - I would rather see the Bills throw to Ertz over Diggs, Beasley, Sanders and Davis.  I wouldn’t really adjust coverage to accommodate for Ertz because he is less of a threat than those other guys.  He is also less of a blocker than the other TEs so he helps less on the running plays.  If we decided to run more 2 TE sets you are pulling talented WRs off the field for lesser players including Ertz.  In Philadelphia- Ertz was the best receiver they had for several years or at least top 2 which is why he got the targets.  In Buffalo he comes in as the 5th best target at best and should get targets commensurate with that level of talent.
 

 

 

The Bills O lacks physicality in my humble opinion. Josh Allen lacks a TE security blanket he feels is adequate enough to target. Erts helps in both area's IMO. 

 

The Chiefs manhandling of the Bills WR's showed just how one dimensional the Bills O has gotten IMO.

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15 minutes ago, Southern Bills Fan said:

I think it's a mistake to spend that kind of money on Ertz. His best years are behind him and he's less of a downfield threat than Knox and Hollister and he doesn't block. I trust Beane though and if he does trade for him I hope it works out.

Agree 💯. If Beasley’s not coming back it should be flushed out though

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2 minutes ago, Figster said:

The Bills O lacks physicality in my humble opinion. Josh Allen lacks a TE security blanket he feels is adequate enough to target. Erts helps in both area's IMO. 

 

The Chiefs manhandling of the Bills WR's showed just how one dimensional the Bills O has gotten IMO.

Literally every WR had a significant injury. That affects their ability to create separation. Beasley could barely walk.

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