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Week 15: Bills at Broncos


YoloinOhio

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1 hour ago, bigK14094 said:

I wonder if the Bills have 12 wins.....will McD rest the critical guys like the Jets game last year.  If you want a run in the playoffs, best to heal those who can benefit as well as protect key guys (Like Allen and Diggs)  So, depending on seeding.......normally (not 2020), I would be rooting for best record so we would get max home games for the Bills Mafia.  But, in this season where the stadiums are really TV studios', a home game has less advantage imho.  So, resting the troops seems logical to me.

Homefield still has  the advantage of being home and not needing to travel. In the playoffs. The ability to rest is huge.

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1 hour ago, T master said:

Man i hope Smoke comes back fully healthy this week and stays healthy for the rest of the season with him on the field JA and the offense could be even more unstoppable !! 

 

John Brown is such a big component to what this team needs on offense, with him out there the offense becomes super dynamic. I wouldn't mind seeing him come back against the Pats if he needs more time give it to him. 

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2 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Feels like we're playing top 10 defenses every week how is that even mathematically possible in a 16 game season lol

Every time we receive a punt that gets downed inside the 5 yard line, I tell my son "That's okay -- it'll just be that much more impressive when we go 99 yards for a touchdown."  He rolls his eyes at that joke because I've driven it into the ground during his 22 years on this earth.  

 

Honestly, though, I kind of feel that way about our schedule this year.  Last year was a fun stroll through the tulip patch, but this year is a lot more impressive.  

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2 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Feels like we're playing top 10 defenses every week how is that even mathematically possible in a 16 game season lol

Been playing some heavy hitters and showing up. Here's a bit from Mike sando's weekly roundup on "The Athletic"

 

The Bills have a really good record against highly ranked defenses.

 

With the Bills facing the Steelers, I went through their games during Allen’s nearly three seasons as the starter to see how they’ve fared against top defenses in general. Each defense from 2018, 2019 and 2020 was ranked No. 1 through No. 32 in EPA per game, with games against Buffalo excluded from the calculations to avoid biasing the rankings.

The Allen-led Bills are 7-3 against top-five defenses over the past three seasons, including 4-0 this season after beating the Los Angeles Rams (No. 1), Steelers (No. 2), Miami Dolphins (No. 4) and San Francisco 49ers (No. 5). Allen had 14 touchdown passes with two interceptions and four total turnovers in those games. He averaged 8.9 yards per pass attempt, 0.39 EPA per attempt and 335 yards per game against those teams, with a 121.8 passer rating. After neither offense accomplished much in the first half Sunday, Allen completed 14 of 20 passes for 162 yards and two touchdowns to close out the Steelers, twice converting on longer than third-and-10.

 

 

1 minute ago, Solomon Grundy said:

What's the better nickname Stink or Booger?

..... Stank 

Edited by Stank_Nasty
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I'm typically very cautious with any Bills-related optimism, HOWEVER...

I find it hard to believe that the Bills are going to lose to a Broncos team missing its top four cornerbacks and quarterbacked by the very up-and-down Drew Lock.

It's hard to look at the matchups -- Bills defense vs Broncos offense, Bills offense vs Broncos defense, McDermott vs Fangio -- and not think that they all favor Buffalo.

I know, I know...any given Sunday. But the Bills players know that a win on Saturday wins them the AFC East, and as such, they are going to be supremely motivated. They don't seem like the type to take any opponent lightly. The Bills are simply a better team than the Broncos in every facet, and I think they win handily.

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Just now, Just Joshin' said:

I can see the negative posters here saying the Bills backed into the playoffs because the Browns won.

 

10-3 and one of the best teams in league. Anyone who complains about this season then should find something else to do. Pittsburgh "backed in" to the playoffs yesterday when Miami lost. Stuff like that will happen. Tonight Go Browns!

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1 minute ago, RichRiderBills said:

Unless the air really bites this team, I see the Bills rolling. I know Denver is respectable, capable of being competitive,  but I just see a route. 

this would be a classic “trap game” in previous seasons... so I fully expect the Bills to take care of business as well :)

 

Probably a similar score to last night’s game.

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24 minutes ago, Logic said:

I'm typically very cautious with any Bills-related optimism, HOWEVER...

I find it hard to believe that the Bills are going to lose to a Broncos team missing its top four cornerbacks and quarterbacked by the very up-and-down Drew Lock.

It's hard to look at the matchups -- Bills defense vs Broncos offense, Bills offense vs Broncos defense, McDermott vs Fangio -- and not think that they all favor Buffalo.

I know, I know...any given Sunday. But the Bills players know that a win on Saturday wins them the AFC East, and as such, they are going to be supremely motivated. They don't seem like the type to take any opponent lightly. The Bills are simply a better team than the Broncos in every facet, and I think they win handily.

 

Melvin Gordon went out yesterday with a shoulder.  If he can't go they have to start Lindsay at RB.

Drew Lock is totally up and down as you said.  Good Drew can put up 30.  Bad Drew puts up teens.

I workman's type game from McDermott and the Bills is needed.

 

Side Note:  I hope Bass gets a chance for a 65 yard FG to end the 1st half.  That would be fun!

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9 minutes ago, eball said:

Denver is a league-worst -18 in TO differential.  With the Bills' D returning to form this bodes well for us.


Absolutely.

Drew Lock, to me, is like rookie-season Josh Allen right now. That is the exact type of quarterback on which the Bills defense usually feasts.

I've said it before: bad to middling quarterbacks don't usually beat the McDermott era Bills. They just don't.

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45 minutes ago, RiotAct said:

this would be a classic “trap game” in previous seasons... so I fully expect the Bills to take care of business as well :)

 

Probably a similar score to last night’s game.

 

It wouldn't be in any season, because trap games only exist in the minds of people who claim they are real, but statistically they have been shown to not actually be a real thing.

 

In every game, a bad team will have a small but real chance of winning, just because that small percentage chance happens to come true at a certain time in the season does not mean it was a trap game.  So when bad teams beat good teams at the same rate at other times, is it because it was a "non trap game"?

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3 minutes ago, BillsfaninSB said:


Conflicted about tonight.  Don’t care that much about locking in a playoff spot.  More worried about the Browns challenging the 2 seed then the Ravens being a threat.

 

I think I want the Ravens. 

 

I would rather the Bills clinch a playoff spot. Look at Baltimore's schedule after tonight. If they win tonight they probably run the table. Buffalo will clinch on their own but if they can get help tonight I would take it.

 

Jaguars

Giants

at Bengals.

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3 hours ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

Broncos will be without both Bouye and his replacement. With John Brown presumably back, Allen should absolutely feast. He will also have confidence going into the game because he doesn't see the Broncos as a big bad team, and he'll just play. That's when he balls out. I'm calling it... First big blowout of the year here.


 

We will see about John Brown.  He is eligible to return, but that does not mean he will play this weekend.  
 

He had a nasty sprain and my guess is the playoffs are more important to them.

 

It would not surprise me for another “game decision” just like Morse - where you give him the extra week by wanting to play what has been working.

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38 minutes ago, BillsfaninSB said:


Conflicted about tonight.  Don’t care that much about locking in a playoff spot.  More worried about the Browns challenging the 2 seed then the Ravens being a threat.

 

I think I want the Ravens. 

The Browns would have to win out with Pittsburgh dropping a game to Indy or Cincy. 
 

We would also have to drop a game in order for Cleveland to become the #2 seed. We currently would have the tie breaker over them even if they won tonight. 

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Denver is tricky game.  It's never easy to win out there and the Broncos D is still decent.  I'm sure it will be a hard fought game...my hope at this point in the season is just to get out of there with no lasting injuries.  The healthiest team(s) come playoffs will be the most dangerous teams.

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18 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

The Browns would have to win out with Pittsburgh dropping a game to Indy or Cincy. 
 

We would also have to drop a game in order for Cleveland to become the #2 seed. We currently would have the tie breaker over them even if they won tonight. 


Thanks.  Did not know the Bills own the tie breaker with the Browns.   That helps. 

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1 minute ago, BillsfaninSB said:


Thanks.  Did not know the Bills own the tie breaker with the Browns.   That helps. 

Actually we would have to drop 2 games in order for Cleveland to pass us in the event they win the AFC North, I misspoke. 
 

1) Is H2H, which we don’t have

 

2) This is conference record... We’re currently 7-2 here and Cleveland is 6-3. They would actually need us to lose twice down the stretch to get that tiebreaker because if we tied here at both teams with 9-3 conference records...

 

3) Common opponents (min. 4) this tiebreaker actually wouldn’t qualify because we only have 3 common opponents. 
 

4) It would move to this tiebreaker which is SOV and I actually don’t think Cleveland can pass us with this at all. 
 

 

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