Too-early prediction - Last Place in AFC East ???

[Chandler#81]

1 hour ago, Jaraxxus said:

If they finish last in the division, it'll require a massive catastrophe.

 

They're simply more talented than every other team in the division, New England included.

 

eh, not especially. Not with so much uncertainty about the season. A forced shortened season or rash of infections will derail most teams expectations. I get the the Browns ‘19 season comparison, but they were paper thin, power struggle in moment and many new faces last year. Those aren’t our ‘00 issues. But nothing can really be anticipated.

[Kirby Jackson]

9 minutes ago, JetsFan20 said:

Id say there is a 10-15 percent the Bills/Pats finish last and a 35-40 percent chance the Jets/Dolphins finish last. 

Without sounding overly homerish I’d have it less than 5%. That would be only an Allen injury followed by completely inept play from the backup. With that being said if Allen misses an extended period of time I’d expect the Bills to take a run at Cam. This team is built to win now and they aren’t going to just punt on the season.

 

That’s why I think it’s virtually impossible for them to finish last in the division. They are incredibly deep (as deep as any team in the NFL). That should insulate them some. While they have some guys that can’t get injured (White, Edmunds, Dawkins, Oliver, Allen) they can withstand it better than most. At a minimum they win 3 division games. If they end up finding 3 more wins that probably keeps them out of last imo. I just don’t see anyway that this happens with this roster and coaching staff. They just don’t have those things that HAVE to go right or else. They’re incredibly balanced.

[JESSEFEFFER]

1 minute ago, MJS said:

Probably 5 or 6. Or it could be Fromm. Or someone completely different. Lots of off-season left and teams will ramp up their roster churn in training camp and preseason.

 

The Bills defense will keep them in most games regardless of the QB. And I seem to remember Barkley spanking the Jets a couple years ago...

 

Came in cold off the street and with a week of practice and with the first team offense on the field with him, the offense played well.  I remember telling my brother that the pass catchers look much better catching his throws.  It's likely a side benefit of lacking arm strength.  He anticipates more because he has to, receivers adjust to the ball better because they have more time to do it and they hang on to it easier because his throws lack the power of Josh's throws.  That is the first and only time we have seen him with the first team offense and a full week to prepare with a game plan.  

[bigK14094]

The NY media are hopeless homers. Its always especially sweet to beat the Jets as I love the NY media crying.  Didn't Rex used to love the NY Post?  Oh well, beating the Jets a couple of time will even up things for me.....for the insult.  This article will play in NYC btw, as it plays to the jets fans....ya gotta sell papers you know to pay the bills.

[FLFan]

This article is so ridiculously shallow it is not worth discussing seriously.   It could have been written by a 12 year old Jets fan.  

43 minutes ago, JetsFan20 said:

You hope the backup QB doesn’t play, but if he does he becomes very important. 
 

I feel much better about Joe Flacco than Matt Barkley. 

Flacco will not even be ready to play by season start.  He is beyond his last legs.  He may have once been better than Barkley, but is no more.  

Edited June 16, 2020 by FLFan

[machine gun kelly]

20 minutes ago, JetsFan20 said:

And how many wins does Barkley lead the Bills to against that schedule? 

JF 2020, I thought let’s give the guy the benefit of the doubt, maybe he likes both teams.  Unlikely, but ok.  Then I kept listening.  You’re just trying to insight things, and if you were even a little neutral, ok.  It’s very obvious you’re not.

 

Do what you think is best, and enjoy you’re friends on you’re Jets website.  Here, it is very apparent you’re not here to be even fair minded.  That’s too bad.  I really did give you a chance to be fair minded.  You’ve done a great job in that I’m one old time poster who won’t respond to you’re originating threads again.  I’d say to my friends, consider because if there is no audience the poster leaves.  They want a response which is why he’s here in the first place.

 

its not like ice bowl.  2020, you wouldn’t know as you don’t care he is a GB guy who respects Bills fans and we are incredibly respectful of each other.  These are great teams and fans.

[HOUSE]

Thanks for sharing

 

 

[marky]

There's been a couple of times where the Bills pulled up on Brady. Sam Adam's return TD. George Wilson in 2011.

 

Don't do that please against a first year QB. Houston took that extra hit to Allen's elbow. Hardin and Jackson lit him up last year in Buffalo. A lot of payback to dish out.

[dubs]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I honestly don’t have any problem with him picking the Bills last. I don’t think it’s likely but everyone is entitled to their opinion. It’s just odd. He talks about how good they are in all of these areas and then picks them last. It’s just kind of strange.

 

@JetsFan20 come get your boy...

exactly. It’s fine if you make that prediction, but when you write an article with that at the prediction, you’d think you’d offer something to support your prediction. Ha. 

[Success]

Blah, blah, blah.

 

The Bills are winning the division.  For quite a few years, starting in '20.

 

[Doc]

When did "too-early" become a euphemism for "dumb"?

[Niagara Dude]

3 hours ago, CSBill said:

https://nypost.com/2020/06/16/buffalo-bills-outlook-josh-allen-co-have-big-expectations/

 

A pretty fair analysis up to the point where he drops this bomb at the end--with no real explanation:

 

"The key to the Bills season is how they handle raised expectations. The Bills are now viewed as the favorites in the AFC East with Tom Brady gone.   I’m not sure how they will handle that. I think they could stumble and have a tough season.

Too-early prediction

Last place in AFC East."

 

I don't swear, but this challenged my conviction.

He going by the fact the Bills have much tougher schedule

[JetsFan20]

2 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

JF 2020, I thought let’s give the guy the benefit of the doubt, maybe he likes both teams.  Unlikely, but ok.  Then I kept listening.  You’re just trying to insight things, and if you were even a little neutral, ok.  It’s very obvious you’re not.

 

Do what you think is best, and enjoy you’re friends on you’re Jets website.  Here, it is very apparent you’re not here to be even fair minded.  That’s too bad.  I really did give you a chance to be fair minded.  You’ve done a great job in that I’m one old time poster who won’t respond to you’re originating threads again.  I’d say to my friends, consider because if there is no audience the poster leaves.  They want a response which is why he’s here in the first place.

 

its not like ice bowl.  2020, you wouldn’t know as you don’t care he is a GB guy who respects Bills fans and we are incredibly respectful of each other.  These are great teams and fans.

Am I really trying insite things by stating that Matt Barkley stinks? 
 

 

[Doc]

24 minutes ago, Niagara Dude said:

He going by the fact the Bills have much tougher schedule

 

The entire AFC East has some of the hardest schedules in the NFL.  Win the division, you make the playoffs.

Edited June 17, 2020 by Doc

[Buffalo_Stampede]

I'm nervous because what comes with expectations is a big boy schedule. Last year we struggled to beat a lot of bad football teams. This years roster is better and Josh gained valuable experience, but the Bills are still a prove it team in my opinion. We'll wait and see, but I said before that the team could be better but have a worse record this season. Possibly 7-9, 8-8, or 9-7. 

Edited June 17, 2020 by Buffalo_Stampede

[stinky finger]

3 hours ago, JetsFan20 said:

You hope the backup QB doesn’t play, but if he does he becomes very important. 
 

I feel much better about Joe Flacco than Matt Barkley. 

 

Me too. Flacco is MUCH better than Barkley.

 

Therefore the Jets are MUCH better than the Bills.

 

Seems logical. 

 

 

[stinky finger]

2 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

JF 2020, I thought let’s give the guy the benefit of the doubt, maybe he likes both teams.  Unlikely, but ok.  Then I kept listening.  You’re just trying to insight things, and if you were even a little neutral, ok.  It’s very obvious you’re not.

 

Do what you think is best, and enjoy you’re friends on you’re Jets website.  Here, it is very apparent you’re not here to be even fair minded.  That’s too bad.  I really did give you a chance to be fair minded.  You’ve done a great job in that I’m one old time poster who won’t respond to you’re originating threads again.  I’d say to my friends, consider because if there is no audience the poster leaves.  They want a response which is why he’s here in the first place.

 

its not like ice bowl.  2020, you wouldn’t know as you don’t care he is a GB guy who respects Bills fans and we are incredibly respectful of each other.  These are great teams and fans.

 

34 minutes ago, JetsFan20 said:

Am I really trying insite things by stating that Matt Barkley stinks? 
 

 

 

Insight - nope, but i hear you.

 

Insite - nope, stop while you're ahead.

 

Inhindcite, I wish I hadn't responded.

[dollars 2 donuts]

Even if you can’t stand the buffalo Bills...they are the favorite.  
 

Even if you just think they are lucky...they have made the playoffs twice in three years with different teams and added more talent this year.

 

Even if you write for a newspaper...doesn’t mean you can’t be moron.

 

...sometimes it’s a prerequisite.

[MassHog]

All time bad take. 

[KD in CA]

5 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I’m not sure Brian understands how odds work. He says that “the odds are against Buffalo making it to the playoffs this year.” The Bills are -105 to win the division right now. Not only do the odds favor them to make the playoffs, the odds favor them to win the division.

 

As a long time NY Post reader when I lived back east, I always found Costello to be little more than an instantly forgettable, paint-by-numbers columnist.

 

The 'odds are against Buffalo' conclusion based on the last time they appeared in the playoffs in consecutive seasons is just the worse kind of nonsensical crap.

 

 

 

 

Edited June 17, 2020 by KD in CA

[Billy Claude]

The guy obviously does not do well at casinos.  It's probability 101.

[JetsFan20]

1 hour ago, KD in CA said:

 

As a long time NY Post reader when I lived back east, I always found Costello to be little more than an instantly forgettable, paint-by-numbers columnist.

 

The 'odds are against Buffalo' conclusion based on the last time they appeared in the playoffs in consecutive seasons is just the worse kind of nonsensical crap.

 

 

 

 

In normal years the Bills would be a prime regression candidate due to the challenging schedule.

 

What I think Costello needs to factor in is that there are multiple paths to the playoffs this year since the division is also up for grabs. 
 

 

[TigerJ]

A partisan sports "journalist" engaging in wishful thinking.  I hope he owns up to his prediction after the season, but I'm not expecting he will.

[SF Bills Fan]

This guy gets paid for writing. That’s hilarious and somewhat of a swindle. 

[eball]

7 hours ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

I'm just saying its not crazy to think that things fall apart next year

It may not be “crazy” but it’s also not very likely, as many more indicators suggest the Bills are a very good team and organization.  Those teams don’t often “fall apart” unless it is on account of key injuries. 
 

Edited June 17, 2020 by eball

[Gugny]

8 hours ago, Johnny Hammersticks said:

What the hell is this trash?  

 

Click bait.  And we are all biting.

1 hour ago, TigerJ said:

A partisan sports "journalist" engaging in wishful thinking.  I hope he owns up to his prediction after the season, but I'm not expecting he will.

 

And when he's wrong, he'll get even more clicks/attention from Bills fans.  He's playing us like a fiddle.

[John from Riverside]

I wrote the author of that article a nice thoughtful response.

 

I am waiting to hear back

[Nelius]

Making awful contrarian takes about everything is an industry right now. A handful of basement neckbeards probably agree and gave him a retweet.

[Rocky Landing]

"Reason for despair

The Bills have not made consecutive playoff appearances since 1998-99 and have not won a playoff game since 1995. The odds are against Buffalo making it back to the playoffs this year. They also will not sneak up on any teams now. They will get their opponents’ best shot."

 

But... we just... huh...???

[JetsFan20]

4 hours ago, eball said:

It may not be “crazy” but it’s also not very likely, as many more indicators suggest the Bills are a very good team and organization.  Those teams don’t often “fall apart” unless it is on account of key injuries. 
 

I know Im going to get roasted for saying this, but don’t the Bills need to beat a good team before being considered a very good organization? What was their signature win last year? Tennessee w/ Mariota? Dallas on Thanksgiving and SNF @ Pitt were good wine, but those teams both had down years. 

 

On paper the Bills are a prime regression candidate, because they aren’t going to get 5 games against the four worst teams in the league again. 
 

Most of the Jets beat writers think BB would win the division with high school team so  don’t take it personally. It remains to be seen if they are right, and hopefully we find out. 

[Nervous Guy]

12 hours ago, JetsFan20 said:

And how many wins does Barkley lead the Bills to against that schedule? 

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/11/sports/buffalo-bills-matt-barkley-ny-jets.html

[CSBill]

The schedule issue has been brought up several times, but do remember, all the AFC East teams play pretty similar opponents. NE has rated the highest, and Jets and Fins strength of scheduled is above the Bills (it would be better to remove the division games, but even in that, they are still close to each other). So when deciding who wins the division, this element is a factor, but not a huge differentiator when compared to each other. And if that is the case, then go back to the quality of players. . . .  Yes, I will concede, it could happen, but the logic (or, non-logic) used to predict it is where the stupidity factor enters his equation.

 

Rank	Team	Opponents' 2019 win percentage
1	New England Patriots	.537 (137-118-1)
2	New York Jets	.533 (136-119-1)
3	Miami Dolphins	.529 (135-120-1)
4	San Francisco 49ers	.527 (134-120-2)
T5	Buffalo Bills	.525 (134-121-1)

Edited June 17, 2020 by CSBill

[RobbRiddick]

To be fair, you can see why people might think this. We've seen a lot of teams crash and burn after being predicted great seasons, remember the Jags a couple of years ago, or the Eagles 'dream team'. 

 

It will be interesting to see how this team handles the pressure and expectation. 

[ProcessTruster]

I do think the hype is a little over the top for this season.  They still need to stay healthy.   A rash of IR injuries tends to trash any teams season.  If your superior talent is not on the field, do you have more talent then everyone else?  

[eball]

3 hours ago, JetsFan20 said:

I know Im going to get roasted for saying this, but don’t the Bills need to beat a good team before being considered a very good organization? What was their signature win last year? Tennessee w/ Mariota? Dallas on Thanksgiving and SNF @ Pitt were good wine, but those teams both had down years. 

 

On paper the Bills are a prime regression candidate, because they aren’t going to get 5 games against the four worst teams in the league again. 
 

Most of the Jets beat writers think BB would win the division with high school team so  don’t take it personally. It remains to be seen if they are right, and hopefully we find out. 

 

I don’t come to a Bills forum to be lectured by Jets fans...as if you have anything to talk about.  You beat the teams in front of you, and the Bills were 10-5 in meaningful contests last season with one-score losses to the Pats* twice and Ravens in which they had the ball in the red zone at the end of the game.

 

You don’t understand statistics if you believe the Bills are a “prime candidate for regression.”  They are trending upwards.  But thanks for visiting; bye bye now.

 

[Billy Claude]

1 hour ago, CSBill said:

The schedule issue has been brought up several times, but do remember all, the AFC East teams play pretty similar opponents. NE has rated the highest, and Jets and Fins strength of scheduled is above the Bills (it would be better to remove the division games, but even in that, they are still close to each other). So when deciding who wins the division, this element is a factor, but not a huge differentiator when compared to each other. And if that is the case, then go back to the quality of players. . . .  But, I will concede, it could happen, but the logic (or, non-logic) used to predict is where the stupidity factor enters his equation.

 

Rank	Team	Opponents' 2019 win percentage
1	New England Patriots	.537 (137-118-1)
2	New York Jets	.533 (136-119-1)
3	Miami Dolphins	.529 (135-120-1)
4	San Francisco 49ers	.527 (134-120-2)
T5	Buffalo Bills	.525 (134-121-1)

 

Excellent point there.   The same applies to last season -- the Patriots, Jets, Dolphins and Bills had similar schedules (taking out the games played within the division) so an argument that the Bills had an easy schedule in 2019 also applies for all the other teams in the division.

[BarleyNY]

15 hours ago, BUFFALOBART said:

It's a Rupert Murdoch rag. Take it with a grain of salt...

I am legitimately surprised every time someone links a NY Post article.  I always expect it to be some kind of joke. 

[atlbillsfan1975]

14 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I’ll agree with that (although Fromm is a wild card). As we sit today the Bills should feel worse about their number 2 than anyone in the division. Brian never suggests though that Allen goes out (which would be an odd thing to predict). Just saying, it’s a tough argument to put the Bills last in the division. They are +650 to finish 4th (and that’s way low imo). If someone offered me 30:1 that the Bills would finish 4th in the division I wouldn’t touch it. 

Fromm is 100% a wildcard. All he did in college coming in for the injured starter was lead his team to National Championship game and win the toughest conference in college football. 

[ProcessYaDigg]

15 hours ago, Johnny Hammersticks said:

What the hell is this trash?  

It's reverse psychology.  

[Nanker]

16 hours ago, CSBill said:

https://nypost.com/2020/06/16/buffalo-bills-outlook-josh-allen-co-have-big-expectations/

 

A pretty fair analysis up to the point where he drops this bomb at the end--with no real explanation:

 

"The key to the Bills season is how they handle raised expectations. The Bills are now viewed as the favorites in the AFC East with Tom Brady gone.   I’m not sure how they will handle that. I think they could stumble and have a tough season.

Too-early prediction

Last place in AFC East."

 

I don't swear, but this challenged my conviction.

 

16 hours ago, Johnny Hammersticks said:

What the hell is this trash?  

 

 

Edited June 17, 2020 by Nanker