Rumor: Bills trying aggressively to move up for a WR in round one

[dave mcbride]

6 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

Xavier Worthy at 28 and Javon Baker on Day 2 would completely revamp our WR room.  

 

Will we double dip?   Doubt it, but we'd have a YAC monster in the slot with Samuel, inside/outside flex with Shakir, speed outside in Worthy and a big body outside recevier in Baker.

 

Locked up for:

 

2 years Shakir

3 years Samuel

4 years Baker

5 years Worthy

We have an extra second next year that I think we should use to move up in the second to get that second boundary receiver assuming we go Worthy at 28. Coleman, Baker ... both can fit that role and for all the worries about Coleman's speed, it's probably OK when you're running him other alongside blazers like Worthy (4.21) and Curtis Samuel (4.31). Plus Shakir has excellent quicks. Interesting thing about Samuel: he has not played with a good QB since the first half of the 2018 season (Cam Newton got hurt mid-season that year and was never the same). He's played with trash ever since.

Edited April 25 by dave mcbride

[Shaw66]

2 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

 

I agree, unless we're talking a small trade up just a handful of places. 

 

But definitely not worth the cost to jump from the end of the Draft all the way up into the top 10.

 

The more I read about how the draft pick value chart came to be, the more broken it seems. It was meant as a snapshot reflecting trades up until that point. But despite how much has changed, teams strated treating it as gospel.

 

This makes things so much more lopsided in favor of teams that trade back than those trading up. If it's for a QB, it's at least understandable. 

I agree, but I think what you describe is the reality of the NFL.   In terms of talent, the winning formula is to get a great QB and then fill up the roster with good football players.   If you're doing the job right, you add a few studs to the lineup, but it almost doesn't matter what position those studs play.   On the Chiefs, they have Kelce and Jones.  On another team, it can be guys at other positions.  

 

Since I don't think it makes sense to make a big trade up into the top 10 for anyone other than a QB, it seems to me that that makes a trade back from 28 the smart move.   Once you have your QB, the object is to get as many good football players possible, and if a trade back from 28 can get you a second- and a third-round pick, well, two opportunities at a good football player is better than one.  You need some studs, for sure, but I think it's a mistake to chase after them.   Diggs fell to the Bills easily enough, and Miller did, too.  Eventually a guy they draft will emerge, too.  

[Chicken Boo]

Harrison Jr

Nabers

Odunze

Thomas Jr

Mitchell

Franklin

 

I'll be disappointed if it isn't one of these guys and the odds are that only 2 or 3 of them will be hits.  

 

That's the risk.  

 

*Still holding on to hope of a Justin Jefferson trade

Edited April 25 by Chicken Boo

[Nineforty]

give me the best offensive linemen available! [ducks]

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, SCBills said:

 

The thing that I can't wrap my head around is the development of Championship DNA.   

 

And maybe that just comes with winning, and we have to get over the hump to do so.

 

McDermott owns 13 seconds.  I don't who to blame for CIN.. that just seems like an absolute mess all around leading into that game.

 

Then this year.. injury luck.  EVERY. YEAR.  KC stays healthy at key positions and we either have big injuries or a depleted roster.   KC's WR room.. which couldn't catch a cold all year, played great against us.. and pretty much everyone in the postseason.  Conversely, we had to rely on Sherfield due to injury (Beane to blame for WR issues) and he clearly did not step up to the moment.  And Diggs.. supposed to be our guy to offset Kelce.  And he gets clamped, fumbles, drops passes.  Playoff non-factor in big games year in/year out.   

 

And alright, those two are gone.  Who's our Jones?  Maybe Oliver?... Oliver dominated the Steelers in the WC Game, but then got owned by KC.  

 

What's it going to take to get people to elevate with Josh Allen when it matters?

 

This is really good.   The last sentence particularly.   The Bills need a couple of players to rise up and make big plays at the right times.   We hoped Diggs would be that guy, and we hoped Miller would be.  Miller still has a chance.   I don't see Oliver or Rousseau being the guys.   They make good plays, but they aren't big play guys.   Frankly, I think the guy may be Milano and Bernard together.   McDermott's defenses dominated from the linebacker position.   One linebacker alone can't dominate, but two can.  That's what McDermott had in Carolina.  

 

The thing that bothers me most about McBeane is that they love the very good guys who are steady.  That's Oliver and Rousseau.   I think they need to have at least a guy or two who make such good plays that you're willing to have them be just average some of the time.  Not disappear, but be just average.  

Edited April 25 by Shaw66

[Einstein]

30 minutes ago, Logic said:

Disagree. You talk about him like he wasn't actually a good college football player.

He was a freshman breakout and posted three years of good production at Texas.

But honestly...I don't want to spend the second best day of the football year arguing about any prospects. I've done enough of that the past few months. Today is a day for joy and pizza and booing Roger Goodell.

We'll stick with "agree to disagree" on Worthy, and we can check back in with each other as his NFL career goes along.

 

I have to agree with Alpha here. If you watch Worthy's highlights, he isn't really separating from the CB very much. It's not like Tyreek Hill where he just blazes past guys.

[LLCoolCy]

18 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Worthy probably doesn’t make it to pick 28.  I think Worthy or Thomas are the pick if we stay at 28.  If they’re both gone, it means Nix/Penix or one of the OT’s are still available at 28 and we trade back. 

 

2 bites of the apple draft theory. 

AD, Ladd, Leggett, Coleman, etc are in the same tear talented but each with a different flaw for me that dropping down to 45ish a couple WRs will be there pick up another 3rd and then use that on another WR to compliment the 1st pick. Like a Coleman paired with Burton. 

 

I have seen 4 separate mocks released in the past 24 hrs with BTJr dropping to 28 and Buffalo Being the auto pic. Too much group think to actually happen but guessing the medical reg flag and are pushing Worthy to WR 4 (Indy getting the buzz at 15). I can't see Beane being patient enough if Tomas Jr drops in the 20's to not trade up and secure the WR even if the mocks think it will happen.  

[vtnatefootball11]

9 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

Harrison Jr

Nabers

Odunze

Thomas Jr

Mitchell

Franklin

 

I'll be disappointed if it isn't one of these guys and the odds are that only 2 or 3 of them will be hits.  

 

That's the risk.  

 

*Still holding on to hope of a Justin Jefferson trade

I would add Mcconkey and Leggette in there just ahead of Franklin but otherwise agree with this. If we could get any two from that list in the 1st and 2nd I would be over the moon.  Otherwise, one of those and a potential starting safety would be great as well.

 

[Mat68]

22 minutes ago, london_bills said:

I always think of Marquise Goodwin when is see Worthy 

Besides the uniform and speed they are not alike.  Goodwin never had more than 450 receiving yards in any of his for years.  The combine speed list is a list of track of track guys that had little college production or at best 1 year.  Worthy has been productive since his freshman year.  
 

On an  offense with multiple top 100 picks Worthy was the guy.  If he weighed 15 more pounds he would be a top 15 pick.  Imo he got leaner than normal because he was chasing the 40 record. I think he will weigh around 175-180 during the season.  

[Mango]

6 hours ago, Buffalo Ballin said:

I don't see how Marvin Harrison Jr. is just as great as his old man, the OG Marvin Harrison. Shaking my head. I don't get it. I have never seen the son surpassing the father WHEN the father is already top tier. The son would be lucky just to be in the same tier as his dad.

 

I don't care how these scouts and Youtubers are selling MHJ. I rather have Nabers, too.

Has there ever been a HOF father and son (other than Lebron and Bronnie James of course) 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

Yesterday I was excited that we might be able to obtain Odunze. This morning it's sounds completely different. Draft smoke? who knows? still could happen?

What is everyone's take on this?

[DapperCam]

19 minutes ago, jahnyc said:

I think selecting Worthy at 28 would be reasonable value if he is available, but I am not seeing anything that suggests that he is or will become a true #1 WR, which, if true, means we would still need to fill that role.  

I don’t think we need a true #1 WR, and the offense almost works better without having to force targets to one.

 

Allen is pretty good at finding the open guy and putting the ball in his hands. I would be fine with Kincaid and Cook getting the majority of targets. Dink and dunk is the name of the game. 

[dma0034]

I mean Peyton Manning was better than Archie (could make a case for Eli too)

[MrEpsYtown]

20 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

Harrison Jr

Nabers

Odunze

Thomas Jr

Mitchell

Franklin

 

I'll be disappointed if it isn't one of these guys and the odds are that only 2 or 3 of them will be hits.  

 

That's the risk.  

 

*Still holding on to hope of a Justin Jefferson trade

 

I have the same list but I will add Worthy. Any of those outcomes are good with me. I wasn't down with him at first, but digging deeper he can ball. I would rather have the top 3 or Thomas/Mitchell...but would be good with Franklin/Worthy. 

[ToGoGo]

5 minutes ago, Mango said:

Has there ever been a HOF father and son (other than Lebron and Bronnie James of course) 

 

Including other sports:

Bobby Hull

Brett Hull

 

Gordie Howe

Mark Howe

[Bills aPHILLYate]

If we don't make a move for one of the top 3/4 I just want a duo of very good prospects added to the WR corp in general. 

We have a lot of options even if we stand pat or move back. 

We could end up with a Mitchell/Legette/Conkley & Walker combo and I'd be perfectly fine. 

We will still have future drafts and FA to add more weapons as well, but I want the precedent to be set THIS draft as far as putting effort into maximizing the weapons for Josh in his prime.

 

[whorlnut]

10 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

Yesterday I was excited that we might be able to obtain Odunze. This morning it's sounds completely different. Draft smoke? who knows? still could happen?

What is everyone's take on this?

How so? I haven’t seen anything that supports this. Still seeing odunze as a possibility. 

[Roundybout]

 

FWIW he has us trading to 4 to take Harrison Jr.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Would you be mad if it’s 1130 pm and the Bills trade their 1st for multiple day 2 picks?

[julian]

3 minutes ago, ToGoGo said:

 

Including other sports:

Bobby Hull

Brett Hull

 

Gordie Howe

Mark Howe

Mark Howe in the HOF is surprising to me

[Draconator]

1 minute ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Would you be mad if it’s 1130 pm and the Bills trade their 1st for multiple day 2 picks?

It would be typical Beane After Dark

[julian]

1 minute ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Would you be mad if it’s 1130 pm and the Bills trade their 1st for multiple day 2 picks?

Depends who’s on the board at the time, and how many spots we drop from #28

[PetermansRedemption]

3 minutes ago, Roundybout said:

 

FWIW he has us trading to 4 to take Harrison Jr.

[section122]

55 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Too bad the fastest guy in combine history doesn’t translate to the field and play like the fastest player in history.  Too much is being made about his straight line speed in shorts IMHO.  Actual game day speed is made up of more than a forty time.  Meanwhile he only caught 6 of the 23 deep ball targets and only caught 5 of his 21 contested catch targets.  40% of his snaps were in slot, and 21% of his targets were screens.  
 

Worthy is going to get over drafted and most likely be a complimentary piece somewhere than a lead dog.  

 

I like Worthy and do understand the concerns.  However sharing the field with another 1st round and traditional x in AD Mitchell, Worthy was the leading receiver.  Also Ewers is not a great deep ball thrower. 

 

At this point there are so many wrs I see the good and the bad with.  I just hope they draft a wr and don't get cute lol.

 

 

 

 

[BillsShredder83]

18 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I'm barging in here and not even sure about the details you guys have been talking about, but this point about Kelce is something I've been thinking about lately.   Yes, it's true that Kelce is super special, but I think it's important to recognize that he doesn't succeed with physical dominance.   He doesn't have great speed, he isn't a great run after catch guy - he isn't extraordinary at breaking tackles.  His RAC comes from being wide open.   

 

I'm not sure I'd call Kelce a game changer, altho I won't argue that point.  What he is is an excellent scheme fit. 

 

Kelce is an excellent tight end with good hands and brains, playing in great scheme with a QB who can execute the scheme.  The important point for this discussion is brains, scheme, and a QB who executes is what makes a great passing game in the current NFL.  

 

I think, in fact, that receivers are becoming a dime a dozen, just like running backs.   Successful teams don't need a top-five running back, and I think the passing game already has evolved to the point that they don't need a top-five receiver.  I mean, they'll have a guy who is top-five in the stats, but he'll get there by being a scheme fit rather than being a great receiver.   I think that's exactly what we've seen in Kansas City.  And it's what we've seen in LA and Detroit and SF.  

 

The Bills need a wideout, for sure.  But I no longer think it's important to have the stud you might find in the top of the draft.  There are a lot guys who can become part of an excellent passing attack in Buffalo, probably a half-dozen in the draft, and guys who will be available in September.  

so the entire league is wrong, so wrong that theyre inflating the hell outta WR pay like we've never seen before? lol cmon this is crazy talk..... its a passing league

[SWATeam]

2 minutes ago, section122 said:

 

I like Worthy and do understand the concerns.  However sharing the field with another 1st round and traditional x in AD Mitchell, Worthy was the leading receiver.  Also Ewers is not a great deep ball thrower. 

 

Guess who else isn't

[MiltonWaddams]

1 minute ago, SWATeam said:

Guess who else isn't

Jared Goff? I dunno. Who?

[Einstein's Dog]

40 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Yup, I agree that is one of the more interesting ones in a while. I think that's the because the Bills are at a true inflection point, moving from phase one of the Josh Allen Bills to phase two of the Josh Allen Bills (and I think there will be three phases in the end). All elite franchise QBs who stick around get basically an entirely new team every 6-7 years. Just look at Brady/Pats, Roethlisberger/Steelers, Rogers/Packers, etc. Mahomes still has Kelce but not for much longer, and even there it's basically an entirely new group outside of Kelce. Anyway, the Bills have to nail this draft AND the post-June 1 FA landscape. I have a sneaking suspicion based on no evidence that they have a deal in place with Justin Simmons, who bizarrely hasn't been signed yet. Something is up with that. He's a really good player - second team all pro four out of the past five years! Maybe the fact that he's 30 worries teams, but he's too good to be sitting there.

For me, part of the suspense is to see if this is going to be an inflection point kind of phase.   I haven't truly bought into Beane's low expectation schtick.  The Bills could still pull out of it and go with a transition.  You can get a different team slowly over the years, not the radical 2 rookie WRs having major roles.

 

To me the transition plan would be get a Diggs replacement, a veteran WR but more reasonably priced than the divas - options such as DHop/C Godwin/DJ Moore.  Then the Davis replacement can be found in the draft- the second tier types Worthy/McConkey/Franklin/Coleman.  Get another vet RB and a safety -either Simmons as you mention above or Hyde.  That's a solid contending team.

[SWATeam]

Just now, MiltonWaddams said:

Jared Goff? I dunno. Who?

Josh

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

Chris Trappaso (CBS) made a good point on WGR last night.

 

When you're picking 28th and lower every year, a 1st round pick is really a 2nd round pick. In most draft years, there are only about 20-25 first round graded players. 

So if you're a team like the Bills, who is consistently picking late 20's in the first round, trading a 1st round pick and a 2nd round pick is similar to trading 2 second round picks.

 

 

By that leap of logic........the Bills second round pick is then like a 3rd round pick.

 

The reality is that the success rate in general drops in each subsequent round so a first round pick is still worth more than a second round pick, etc..

 

 

[B-Man]

 

[Kirby Jackson]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

By that leap of logic........the Bills second round pick is then like a 3rd round pick.

 

The reality is that the success rate in general drops in each subsequent round so a first round pick is still worth more than a second round pick, etc..

 

 

I think that the truth is somewhere in between. As an example of the Bills offer their 2025 1st and their own 2025 2nd teams probably expect picks at like 28 and 60 (or whatever). If the Bills trade their 2025 1st and the Vikings 2025 2nd teams probably expect the picks to be like picks 28 and pick 43. 
 

 

[MiltonWaddams]

12 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

Josh

I knew who you were referring to.

[Shaw66]

3 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:

so the entire league is wrong, so wrong that theyre inflating the hell outta WR pay like we've never seen before? lol cmon this is crazy talk..... its a passing league

No, that's now what I'm saying, although I am in part.   Teams paid big dollars for running backs for several years after it started becoming apparent that the best running backs just weren't worth it.  It took teams a while to catch on.   I think you'll start to see that happen to receivers.   We all were startled when the Chiefs were willing to unload Hill instead of pay him; I think the Chiefs were ahead of the curve. 

 

Everyone seems to think this is a deep receiver class.   If that's true, and if I'm right, guys drafted in the second and third round will make splashes around the league this season and next.    If that happens, would you rather that Beane (1) traded back and picked up a good receiver and a second pick or (2) traded up for a guy who was only marginally better, giving up draft capital along the way?   I would trade back.  And what will that mean?  It will mean that you don't have to spend big, either in dollars or draft capital, to get a receiver who gets the job done, because if you're running a good offense, there are plenty of guys you can plug into it, and you have a good chance of finding a Deebo (2), a Kupp (3), or a St. Brown (4) outside of round 1.  

 

Now, there's one big caveat, and that is that this thinking is correct (or at least I think it's correct) only until the defenses adjust, as they always do, and the passing games that the best teams run become less effective.   Offense will then have to adjust, as they always do, and maybe that adjustment will change the value, again, of receivers.  Maybe the new defenses will begin to shut down the short to medium range game, and maybe offenses will counter by putting two or three burners on the field all the time and returning to a quick-strike offense.   If that happens, there'll be a real premium on speed.  In the meantime, however, teams seem to be valuing someone other than the classic stud #1 guy.  

 

 

[Sweats]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

No, that's now what I'm saying, although I am in part.   Teams paid big dollars for running backs for several years after it started becoming apparent that the best running backs just weren't worth it.  It took teams a while to catch on.   I think you'll start to see that happen to receivers.   We all were startled when the Chiefs were willing to unload Hill instead of pay him; I think the Chiefs were ahead of the curve. 

 

Everyone seems to think this is a deep receiver class.   If that's true, and if I'm right, guys drafted in the second and third round will make splashes around the league this season and next.    If that happens, would you rather that Beane (1) traded back and picked up a good receiver and a second pick or (2) traded up for a guy who was only marginally better, giving up draft capital along the way?   I would trade back.  And what will that mean?  It will mean that you don't have to spend big, either in dollars or draft capital, to get a receiver who gets the job done, because if you're running a good offense, there are plenty of guys you can plug into it, and you have a good chance of finding a Deebo (2), a Kupp (3), or a St. Brown (4) outside of round 1.  

 

Now, there's one big caveat, and that is that this thinking is correct (or at least I think it's correct) only until the defenses adjust, as they always do, and the passing games that the best teams run become less effective.   Offense will then have to adjust, as they always do, and maybe that adjustment will change the value, again, of receivers.  Maybe the new defenses will begin to shut down the short to medium range game, and maybe offenses will counter by putting two or three burners on the field all the time and returning to a quick-strike offense.   If that happens, there'll be a real premium on speed.  In the meantime, however, teams seem to be valuing someone other than the classic stud #1 guy.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

..........agreed 100%

[skibum]

I just think the Bills have the assets to trade up high enough to get one of the big 3 WR this year.  They are already fielding a paper-thin roster. I say just take BPA, suffer through this 2024-5 rebuild, and get it all back on track next year. 

[Big Turk]

8 minutes ago, skibum said:

I just think the Bills have the assets to trade up high enough to get one of the big 3 WR this year.  They are already fielding a paper-thin roster. I say just take BPA, suffer through this 2024-5 rebuild, and get it all back on track next year. 

 

It's not as paper thin as you might want to believe

[SectionC3]

1 hour ago, SCBills said:

 

Xavier Worthy at 28 and Javon Baker on Day 2 would completely revamp our WR room.  

 

Will we double dip?   Doubt it, but we'd have a YAC monster in the slot with Samuel, inside/outside flex with Shakir, speed outside in Worthy and a big body outside recevier in Baker.

 

Locked up for:

 

2 years Shakir

3 years Samuel

4 years Baker

5 years Worthy

I’m with you on everyone but Baker.  And I’d be fine with Baker - I just see that guy as fungible.  Someone larger, with a mean streak, who can crack down here and there and be a bit of an enforcer on the field while breaking a tackle here and there as well.  Worthy to me is the more important piece.  After that, I don’t care of it’s Baker, Legette, Mitchell, Coleman, whatever.  I want a big piece to slip into the crew you just mentioned. 

[Shaw66]

10 minutes ago, skibum said:

I just think the Bills have the assets to trade up high enough to get one of the big 3 WR this year.  They are already fielding a paper-thin roster. I say just take BPA, suffer through this 2024-5 rebuild, and get it all back on track next year. 

Maybe they do have the assets, but there's no question it will cost a lot.  The question is whether the difference between the top three guys and the six through tenth guys is worth what it will cost.   You might pay $5000 more for the custom interior in your Mercedes, but would you pay $50,000 more?

[Warriorspikes51]

If Odunze is the target and gets to Bears pick at 9, they could just take him.

 

However, they only have 2 picks in the draft after 9.

 

My offer:  28, 60, 128, 160, 163, 2025 1st

 

if they counter, we’ll keep one of this year’s picks and add one next year