Brady Effect: QBs playing into their 40's the new norm?

[TheFunPolice]

I think we'll see more and more QBs playing well into their 40's, because a lot of not doing it was mental, and the fact that it didn't happen much.

 

I was listening to some pre-game coverage of the Super Bowl on Sirius XM, and they were doing the annual Joe Montana interview. He was talking about his time in KC and how he really regrets retiring when he did at age 38. He said he was "stupid" for doing it, and had some good years left. 

 

It made me think about how the game has changed. Back in the day, Montana being 38 was ancient. By then most guys were busted up, crippled versions of themselves. 

 

Yet here's "Joe Cool" saying he wishes he played another few seasons, into his 40's, at a time when that was unthinkable. 

 

Now, 40 is nothing. Brady played in 3 Super Bowls after age 40, winning 2. 

 

Diet is different, training is different, rules are different to protect QBs more and more, the offseason programs are different. 

 

IMO, a QBs prime years are also different. Physically it still might be the years from 27-33 or so, but mentally, which is more important for a QB, it might actually be their mid 30's, when the great ones become like another OC playing the game because they've done it for so long and the plays and reading defenses become second nature. 

 

Take Rodgers for example. He tore his Achilles at age 39 and by his 40th birthday 77 days later he was back at practice slinging the ball and (for some dumb reason) trying to intercept balls on defense. 15 years ago that injury happens to a 39 year old QB and they are done. 

 

A guy like Kirk Cousins who turns 36 this coming season was just at the NFL Honors show doing a comedy dance routine on his newly repaired Achilles and just played some of his best football the past couple seasons. He could sign somewhere and be a very effective to great 7 year starter there, easily. 

 

I could easily see Allen and Mahomes playing into their 40's, barring any major injuries. 

 

QBs retain their arm strength and accuracy, gain the mental edge, and have rules that protect them from the type of shots that guys like Kelly, Montana and Marino took game in and game out. 

[Process]

I don't see it. We literally have one example in NFL history of a guy playing at that level into their 40s.

 

Several examples of guys breaking down before than (Peyton, Ben, Rivers etc)

[SoonerBillsFan]

I hope Josh has 12+ more years.

[KingBoots8]

I think we will see QB’s playing longer for sure, so long as their skills don’t dull too much and their pay keeps pace. Location also matters- Megatron retired in his prime because the team was unwilling to either acquire talent to challenge for a title and was not willing to let him go. He was burned out and said he was done.

 

the right QB, with the right team/ownership, and the right skills will play until the money or skills start to wilt. I expect more QB’s to keep playing, but only at a high enough level.

Edited February 14 by KingBoots8

[corta765]

QBs are def playing longer with less hit and the game geared for offense. But 40 still is far different and Brady really was unique as he was a temple to his body to keep it so healthy and other then his knee in 08 never had another major injury. It is rare to have that injury luck, lack of wearing down on the body, and discipline health wise so I would say 40 will forever be rare for QBs. I do expect though far more high caliber QBs to hold their production much longer into their late 30s where high QB play for guys 35-36-37-38 is way more common. It use to be QBs came into the league, made their mark, got paid, and then by 32-33 the wheels came off. That I do think is far different and good QBs now have four phases 1. rookie QB contract build around guy to max // paid top time pt1 // paid top time pt2 // true regression and fading. I truly good QB I think will have 3-4 core group of guys in their lifetime as the team reloads. 

 

Josh has played with one core group which is fading. The second group is here now as guys like Cook, Kincaid, Torrence, Bernard, Benford, Oliver all are here for the next 5-6 years. If we are lucky Josh probably goes into a third group while still be really good for a few years. That to me is where the QB position has changed as if you got your QB to two core groups of guys it was really good. Going three strong which is 15-18 year life span is not unreasonable now.

[TheFunPolice]

14 minutes ago, Process said:

I don't see it. We literally have one example in NFL history of a guy playing at that level into their 40s.

 

Several examples of guys breaking down before than (Peyton, Ben, Rivers etc)

 

I think there are some specific reasons in those cases though. 

 

Ben didn't seem to believe in exercise and looked like an OT his last season or 2. 

 

Peyton and Rivers suffered a lot of injuries that piled up, and both started playing in a era that allowed a lot more vicious hits. These guys starting off now never played in that NFL.

 

It's certainly true that to play into your 40's you first need to be very good, get a little lucky, but also be committed. The younger guys today are in such better hsape physically that I think it's realistic. 

 

Even Brady talks about how in his 20's he was nowhere near in the type of physical shape he was when he was in his late 30's. He ate burgers, drank beer, and had not yet started drinking kitten blood and eating souls. Not sure about the last part, but I think I heard it somewhere...

[Gigs]

Back in the early 2000s it was still normal to see a QB after just 30 as still good but past their prime. When we traded for a 30/31 year old Drew Bledsoe for a 1st it was said we overpaid for an ooooold QB past his best games.

 

Then the game changed and now you can't really destroy a QB. If it was the old way, Brady would've made it to maybe 39/40 and would've been a shell of himself and especially the 44 year old TB we all saw. That's what you're seeing. Human physiology didn't change in 20 years, but the QBs got super protected in that time frame. 

 

Allen and Mahomes will most likely make it to 38-40 and be done. I don't really see Rodgers playing beyond this season outside of trying to earn another bag. Now if they make QBs 2 hand touch tackle you could see guys in their 50s playing, because at that point old timers like Hogan and Flair are still taking WWE bumps, why not 50+ year old Brady?

[GoBills808]

I actually see it going backwards tbh

 

QBs are asked to do more physically and they're making tons more $$

[TheFunPolice]

A lot has to do with the commitment too. Rivers has like 10 kids, so I could see him wanting to spend more time with family and not wanting to be on the road all the time. 

 

I've heard both Lamar and Mahomes say their goal is to play well into their 40's, so I think younger guys coming in have that idea early on and are taking the steps early on to try to do what Brady did, which he really didn't start doing until he was 35+ years old.

 

 

15 minutes ago, KingBoots8 said:

I think we will see QB’s playing longer for sure, so long as their skills don’t dull too much and their pay keeps pace. Location also matters- Megatron retired in his prime because the team was unwilling to either acquire talent to challenge for a title and was not willing to let him go. He was burned out and said he was done.

 

the right QB, with the right team/ownership, and the right skills will play until the money or skills start to wilt. I expect more QB’s to keep playing, but only at a high enough level.

 

That's a huge part of it: the team around a guy and how things are going. 

 

If you're 40, are still great, are reasonably healthy, and your long time team seems to have a whole bunch of young up and coming star players and a coach you love, then it's a lot easier to commit to a few more years of winning, going to the playoffs, and having chances at the Super Bowl than if you're on New England and stuck in the basement! 

[Another Fan]

Good topic OP

 

Double edged sword to me :  on the one hand the QB's are protected now more than ever and the increased awareness of health and nutrition can prolong their careers.

 

On the other hand it seems like the learning curve for younger QB's is now gone or at least not what it was.  

 

I can definitely see back up QB's playing well into their 40s.  Tyrod comes to mind 

[MJS]

If it is the new norm, why don't we have more than one example of it? Brady is the only QB to play at that level at 40+.

 

I don't see anything changing. In fact, QB's have to be more mobile than ever. Athleticism at the QB position is at an all time high. It might be that we never see another QB play to their 40's.

[Lost]

25 minutes ago, Process said:

I don't see it. We literally have one example in NFL history of a guy playing at that level into their 40s.

 

Several examples of guys breaking down before than (Peyton, Ben, Rivers etc)

 

Aside from Brady, Brett Favre had statistically one of his best seasons at age 40.

[Sweats]

Go back and see some of the footage before QB's were protected so much these days. It was brutal warfare going on against the QB's....low hits, chop blocks, guys getting their legs rolled up on, hits to the head, etc.

 

Many of a QB careers were cut short due to the beatings.

[Returntoglory]

Yeah. 

 

Asong as you're healthy, no loss of arm talent AND still have the desire. 

[Gregg]

3 minutes ago, Sweats said:

Go back and see some of the footage before QB's were protected so much these days. It was brutal warfare going on against the QB's....low hits, chop blocks, guys getting their legs rolled up on, hits to the head, etc.

 

Many of a QB careers were cut short due to the beatings.

 

We saw it with Kelly. Defenses could hit the crap out of offensive players back then. Today not so much.

[FireChans]

32 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I actually see it going backwards tbh

 

QBs are asked to do more physically and they're making tons more $$

Agreed. 
 

What is more likely? Mahomes retires early or plays til 40? 
 

If he gets to 4-5 SB’s over the next 3 years, I could easily see him walking. 

[Heels20X6]

 

12 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Agreed. 
 

What is more likely? Mahomes retires early or plays til 40? 
 

If he gets to 4-5 SB’s over the next 3 years, I could easily see him walking. 

 

No chance...he is driven by the want to be the greatest of all time now.  If he can still go, he will play til he can set every record possible.  I can see him pulling a Tom and being a mercenary at the end for good teams once KC's window closes

[FilthyBeast]

It's not the new norm until we see multiple guys play well into their 40's, compete and a high level and most importantly win championships This one of many reasons Brady is still the unquestioned GOAT is because of what he did in his late 30's and well into his 40's. And most will tell you he truly aged like fine wine and became much better later in his career vs early on in his 20's when he won the first 3 SB's.

 

And even though Mahomes is on pace to at worse match Brady, who knows if he's still as good 10 years from now. He may peak soon or already has...or simply isn't going to be blessed with the same health factors that enabled Brady to do what he did for so long. A freak injury could derail everything regardless.

 

 

[BillsShredder83]

QB protecting rules. Also, like OP mentioned the mental aspect.  Makes me think of the, anmd im paraphrasing, but the 3 or 4minute mile seemed untouchable for a long time.  Someone did it, and it opened the flood gates.

 

Also, better living through science.  HGH is great for the sport despite what the dorks think.  HGH isnt even a compound that makes you big or a freak, its hugely popular in Hollywood for anti-aging..... ya know that older chick J-Lo, Jennifer Love Hewitt etc etc, that has been hot and looks the same into her 50's?  Yep, thats a component.  Great for joints and ligaments strength and flexibility.  As we age they tend to get more stiff and less flexible. GH in the body decreases as we age. Remember when you could sleep in, but now you wake up at 5-6am no matter what time you went to bed or how tired you are... low GH

 

GH isnt going to make the man, but it  amplifies the s*** out of what these guys are already doing to take care of their bodies. Then recovery peptides like BPC157 and TB500 for nagging/serious injuries. I know people hate the idea of this stuff in the sport, but its rampant and these things make the sport better.  These arent magic double your season output type compounds, these are keep your teams healthier/able to grind through 17games, with some luck, without missing significant time type compounds.

 

I fully understand (although respectfully disagree) most fans not wanting guys running 25 week tren/d-bol/test cycles all over the field. I'll shout it from the mountain tops, GH is not that, fans need to accept that and move forward thankful for it.  In 20years were going to laugh this was ever a controversy.  There was likely a time everyone thought creatine, whey, hyperbaric (bolic? i forget) chambers were cheating LOL.... we mind as well just go back to smoking cigs on the sidelines again HAHAHAHAHAHA

 

Also, before someone shouts Lyle Alzado:

#1 guy was taking the substances im not referencing

#2 poor guys claims were emotion driven, understandably, but just not based in facts. correlation is not causation, or we'd see this NON-STOP in sports. we dont

 

PS, Brady being to first to do it, in the same time frame as these compounds isnt a coincidence. You'd have to believe WWF was real to think that. As much as he terrorized us, he is a marquee example of why the NFL is turning a blind eye, and hopefully the lesser known players/positions are following suit. Why would we not want the best athletes to stick around? 

 

Do we prefer the Gale Sanders, Bo Jackson, Sterling Sharpe, Terrell Davis, Tony Bosseli, type player timelines?

Edited February 14 by BillsShredder83

[BillsShredder83]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

Agreed. 
 

What is more likely? Mahomes retires early or plays til 40? 
 

If he gets to 4-5 SB’s over the next 3 years, I could easily see him walking. 

You're thinking like a rational human. You dont get to the top of a career like this with a personality that can just decide to hit the "off-switch".

Does Warren Buffett still need to make more money? LOL. these dudes are singular driven cyborgs. the dudes who arent that get filtered out mentality wise at the college/early NFL levels. 8 billion people, and hes better than anyone else in the world, and you think a guy who can just shut it down has a chance to be where he is. nooooooo chanceeeeeeeee

[FireChans]

5 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:

You're thinking like a rational human. You dont get to the top of a career like this with a personality that can just decide to hit the "off-switch".

Does Warren Buffett still need to make more money? LOL. these dudes are singular driven cyborgs. the dudes who arent that get filtered out mentality wise at the college/early NFL levels. 8 billion people, and hes better than anyone else in the world, and you think a guy who can just shut it down has a chance to be where he is. nooooooo chanceeeeeeeee

These kids are different man. I think that’s part of the reason these old school coaches are less and less popular. 

[BCAS Baritone]

George Blanda

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Blanda

 

He was 43 when he relieved Daryl Lamonica in the AFC Championship game.  He played another 5 years but only as a kicker.

[Dr.Sack]

Josh is about to turn the same age Jim Kelly was in 1988, but that’s with a considerable higher odometer reading. I think it comes down to two key factors; having the will, and being healthy. 

[T master]

Not so sure it's the Brady effect i think it has more to do with all the rule changes pertaining to hitting the QB . Defensive players have had to completely revamp their playing styles when it comes to hitting the QB if the inadvertently brush the QB's helmet it's a penalty .

 

Just the rule changes has added a extra probably 5 years to a QB's career which is a good thing but some of the calls like when a D linemen falls on a QB is kind of ridiculous i mean i could see if they are trying to drive them into the ground or slam them but some calls are just comical .

 

Then we have seen just like in the NBA the NFL QB's have taken to being great actors just to draw a foul even when it's not a real bad hit i've seen Josh do it, i guess that has become part of todays game too .

[Don Otreply]

If your GM & HC are willing to supply their older QB an above average quality O-Line then yes a QB can play into his late thirties and early forties with out constantly worrying about brain damage or a crippling injury, older guys break easier and take longer to heal, cough cough Aaron Rodgers cough cough…, 

[billieve420]

Brady is a freak of a nature. I don't think most people have the dedication to the game like he had.

[Man with No Name]

Brees was still really good at 40, and pretty effective his last year at 41, despite not having any arm strength left. Rivers was still good at 39. he left to spend time with his family and because he really really wanted to be a high school football coach for some reason. 

 

40 seems almost a normal end now, with quality seasons until almost the very end. with improving medicine, stem cells, less invasive surgeries, peptides, hgh, etc., it's easy to see mid 40s becoming more regular. I think more than anything it will be the desire rather than the ability that flames out prior to that. It is difficult to imagine that being the case, but im 42 now, and every year it shocks me how much i lose interest in something that brought me 30+ years of joy before. there just comes a time that the juice isn't worth the squeeze anymore. 

[Mr. WEO]

On 2/14/2024 at 12:53 PM, TheFunPolice said:

 

I think there are some specific reasons in those cases though. 

 

Ben didn't seem to believe in exercise and looked like an OT his last season or 2. 

 

Peyton and Rivers suffered a lot of injuries that piled up, and both started playing in a era that allowed a lot more vicious hits. These guys starting off now never played in that NFL.

 

It's certainly true that to play into your 40's you first need to be very good, get a little lucky, but also be committed. The younger guys today are in such better hsape physically that I think it's realistic. 

 

Even Brady talks about how in his 20's he was nowhere near in the type of physical shape he was when he was in his late 30's. He ate burgers, drank beer, and had not yet started drinking kitten blood and eating souls. Not sure about the last part, but I think I heard it somewhere...

 

As has been pointed out, you're basing your thread on one guy ever--and he was uniquely dedicated to his longevity.  

 

Rodgers isn't even 40--he's suddenly going to dedicate his routine to be able to play 5 more years?  Why?

[SirAndrew]

6 hours ago, billieve420 said:

Brady is a freak of a nature. I don't think most people have the dedication to the game like he had.

Agree, and it’s not just physical limitations, much of it is mental. I realize everyone wants more money, no matter their wealth, but I’m sure players think they can make money in other ventures. It’s easier to make money once you have it. I find it hard to believe the fire doesn’t burn out by the time a player reaches their late thirties. It’s a grind, and it must be a greater challenge when you have fewer things left to accomplish. I think that’s human nature, but Brady didn’t think that way. He is simply wired differently than anyone who ever played the game. There has to be a pretty large appeal to retiring in one’s thirties with the opportunity to do whatever you choose. 

[Big Turk]

Depends how well they take care of themselves.

 

The rules limiting how many hits they are going to take is likely playing a large role as well.

[GunnerBill]

QBs will routinely play later than they did a generation ago but I don't think we are going to see lots and lots of guys going into their mid 40s. Manning played until 39, was pretty good still at 38 and had arguably his best year age 37. Ben Roethlisberger was still decent at 38 and had one of his best years at 36. Drew Brees had a great year at 39. Rodgers won MVP at 37....

 

So I think really good into the very twilight of their 30s is the new norm. Really good into their 40s is just Brady. 

[stuvian]

my counter argument is the 17 games season and its toll on players

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Favre, Brees and Brady all had great seasons at age 40 or beyond. But Brees couldn't stay healthy in any of his 40 year old seasons. Favre promptly fell off a cliff at 41 after having arguably the best season of his career at age 40. Brady was great of course. 

 

Besides Favre, Brees and Brady really play the game quite differently than Mahomes and Allen. Both Mahomes and Allen use their legs as weapons not just running the ball but in moving the chains through the air as well. We will have to see how that part of their game holds up or transitions as they start to enter their mid to late 30's. 

 

[HardyBoy]

On 2/15/2024 at 2:13 PM, Man with No Name said:

Brees was still really good at 40, and pretty effective his last year at 41, despite not having any arm strength left. Rivers was still good at 39. he left to spend time with his family and because he really really wanted to be a high school football coach for some reason. 

 

40 seems almost a normal end now, with quality seasons until almost the very end. with improving medicine, stem cells, less invasive surgeries, peptides, hgh, etc., it's easy to see mid 40s becoming more regular. I think more than anything it will be the desire rather than the ability that flames out prior to that. It is difficult to imagine that being the case, but im 42 now, and every year it shocks me how much i lose interest in something that brought me 30+ years of joy before. there just comes a time that the juice isn't worth the squeeze anymore. 

 

Hmm, what is it that you started doing around age 12 that no longer brings you as much joy exactly...

[Punching Bag]

When NFL has trouble finding talent they will adjust rules to make it easier for QBs to play longer including what enhancements (drugs, vitamins, etc) QBs can take.

Rules will have harsher penalties for injuring QBs even if QB is not even in possession of ball.

[Mr Info]

On 2/16/2024 at 9:05 AM, stuvian said:

my counter argument is the 17 games season and its toll on players

Good point and it will probably be 18 games in a little while.

[Man with No Name]

On 2/17/2024 at 1:25 AM, HardyBoy said:

 

Hmm, what is it that you started doing around age 12 that no longer brings you as much joy exactly...

ummm, playing baseball

[NoSaint]

On 2/14/2024 at 11:57 AM, TheFunPolice said:

A lot has to do with the commitment too. Rivers has like 10 kids, so I could see him wanting to spend more time with family and not wanting to be on the road all the time. 

 

I've heard both Lamar and Mahomes say their goal is to play well into their 40's, so I think younger guys coming in have that idea early on and are taking the steps early on to try to do what Brady did, which he really didn't start doing until he was 35+ years old.

 

 

 

That's a huge part of it: the team around a guy and how things are going. 

 

If you're 40, are still great, are reasonably healthy, and your long time team seems to have a whole bunch of young up and coming star players and a coach you love, then it's a lot easier to commit to a few more years of winning, going to the playoffs, and having chances at the Super Bowl than if you're on New England and stuck in the basement! 

I think you’ve tipped into excusing too much and trying to create a narrative. Can guys play deeper into their career based on better sports science (both upkeep and repairs) and fewer hits? Sure. 
 

is Lamar a guy I’m pointing at while saying rivers etc… took too many big hits? Probably not the dude that’s going deep into his 40s

 

I feel ok saying you’ll probably see a few more guys touch 40 than usual but it’s not the expectation suddenly to be playing top shelf ball then 

 

On 2/16/2024 at 8:01 AM, GunnerBill said:

QBs will routinely play later than they did a generation ago but I don't think we are going to see lots and lots of guys going into their mid 40s. Manning played until 39, was pretty good still at 38 and had arguably his best year age 37. Ben Roethlisberger was still decent at 38 and had one of his best years at 36. Drew Brees had a great year at 39. Rodgers won MVP at 37....

 

So I think really good into the very twilight of their 30s is the new norm. Really good into their 40s is just Brady. 

agree here. We’ve added a third full length contract as the expectation to be able to complete (or come close) but not a 4th 

[Doc]

No.

[Bill from NYC]

On 2/14/2024 at 3:18 PM, Dr.Sack said:

Josh is about to turn the same age Jim Kelly was in 1988, but that’s with a considerable higher odometer reading. I think it comes down to two key factors; having the will, and being healthy. 

Having the will is key. Some QBs make 50 million per season. In 5 years that is a quarter of a billion dollars, this without the advertisements. That is enough to make many people lose the necessary drive imo. If I had a couple hundred million dollars, I would not want to get hit by Matt Milano. No thank you.

 

This is now starting to effect college players due to NIL. Most college football players come from poor backgrounds. In some cases very poor. I think that this gave many of these kids the ability/desire to do what it takes to succeed. The Georgia QB just bought a Lamborghini. https://www.si.com/college/2024/02/06/georgia-bulldogs-qb-carson-beck-lamborghini-urus-performante

Do you think that he will be out partying with lit or let it sit in the driveway? 

 

In any event the NFL rule changes really do protect the QB, to the point where they can have longer careers no doubt. I do however think that the huge salaries will keep the numers down wrt QBs over 40.

 

Jmo.

 

Edited February 18 by Bill from NYC