Unpopular playoff opinion-next year

[BillsFooteball]

First off Merry Christmas bills fans! 
I wanted to throw out a scenario that I’m hopeful for but don’t believe will be popular take and would love to get some feedback. 

 

First most important I just want bills to get in playoffs. This year more than ever has taken a toll on me. Jets, patriots, broncos, and eagles losses particular were heartbreaking. Give me even one of those wins and we likely are not even having this conversation. I would be all about the 1 seed. For now though  Bills making the playoffs and having an opportunity to go on a run is priority #1. 

 

Now where we may  disagree:

I don’t care about the division this year. In a perfect world to me bills beat the patriots. We have 2 probable games go our way chiefs beating bengals and Seahawks beating Steelers. Playoffs are clinched! 

 

Following week I would be in full support of treating Miami as a bye week. Rest up,

get healthy and let’s go on a run. No risk of any other significant injury. Bills are as good as anyone in AFC this year. They aren’t getting a 1 seed. I don’t care if it’s wildcard or afc championship to make Super Bowl they will likely have to go KC and Baltimore and win which they can do. 

 

Lastly looking wayyyy ahead to next year. I know anything can happen and it’s sometime when you play a team not who you play. But Miami wins division this year. Next year for the uncommon opponents they get the chiefs, ravens  and lions. Bills get broncos, browns and Vikings. Trust me I’m 1000% overly focused and all in this year but to me that’s significant in another competitive year. 

 

 

 

 

 

[peterpan]

Honestly teams that get byes usually come out flat. The bills lost guys like Milano and white early but I don’t feel like we are too banged up right now. 
 

im curious what scenario is there where, we would play Miami in back to back weeks.  In that case I think it would be prudent to save some of the playbook and set them up for failure the following week 

Edited December 25, 2023 by peterpan

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

We still have a solid chance at playing two home games to start the playoffs. That’s what to root for.

[frostbitmic]

I'm still hoping the Bills win out, the Ravens do us a favor and beat the Dolphins next week, and the division crown and home playoff game goes to Buffalo.

[LEBills]

If the Dolphins beat the Ravens and clinch the East and the Bengals and Steelers lose (or some other clinching combinations), I’ve been thinking the same thing. Let the team take the week off and play backups in Miami. The Bye week did wonders for this team.

 

I think we probably still have a reason to be playing tho to clinch or for seeding

[HardyBoy]

12 minutes ago, BillsFooteball said:

First off Merry Christmas bills fans! 
I wanted to throw out a scenario that I’m hopeful for but don’t believe will be popular take and would love to get some feedback. 

 

First most important I just want bills to get in playoffs. This year more than ever has taken a toll on me. Jets, patriots, broncos, and eagles losses particular were heartbreaking. Give me even one of those wins and we likely are not even having this conversation. I would be all about the 1 seed. For now though  Bills making the playoffs and having an opportunity to go on a run is priority #1. 

 

Now where we may  disagree:

I don’t care about the division this year. In a perfect world to me bills beat the patriots. We have 2 probable games go our way chiefs beating bengals and Seahawks beating Steelers. Playoffs are clinched! 

 

Following week I would be in full support of treating Miami as a bye week. Rest up,

get healthy and let’s go on a run. No risk of any other significant injury. Bills are as good as anyone in AFC this year. They aren’t getting a 1 seed. I don’t care if it’s wildcard or afc championship to make Super Bowl they will likely have to go KC and Baltimore and win which they can do. 

 

Lastly looking wayyyy ahead to next year. I know anything can happen and it’s sometime when you play a team not who you play. But Miami wins division this year. Next year for the uncommon opponents they get the chiefs, ravens  and lions. Bills get broncos, browns and Vikings. Trust me I’m 1000% overly focused and all in this year but to me that’s significant in another competitive year. 

 

 

 

 

 

I think a lot matters if the Dolphins beat the Ravens. Assuming the Dolphins win, Bills win and the Bills get a playoff spot because other stuff happens, I still don’t see a situation where Allen ends his game streak to rest, which means you have the oline starting.

 

Dolphins could be wild card opponent too, so not sure if that changes things, but you might try and set up plays for the following week?

[mrags]

I think if they already have it clinched going into the dolphins game. There’s a chance they start the starters but pull them mid Game. Especially if things are getting out of hand in either direction. 
 

but I will say this. I am hoping for a home playoff game. If for nothing else, then to sell my playoff tix for a brinks truck full of cash. 

[Process]

If dolphins and browns win and we clinch playoffs, I think they should rest guys. 

 

If 5 seed is in play you have to go for it. Getting to play the afcs is too valuable.

[NastyNateSoldiers]

29 minutes ago, BillsFooteball said:

First off Merry Christmas bills fans! 
I wanted to throw out a scenario that I’m hopeful for but don’t believe will be popular take and would love to get some feedback. 

 

First most important I just want bills to get in playoffs. This year more than ever has taken a toll on me. Jets, patriots, broncos, and eagles losses particular were heartbreaking. Give me even one of those wins and we likely are not even having this conversation. I would be all about the 1 seed. For now though  Bills making the playoffs and having an opportunity to go on a run is priority #1. 

 

Now where we may  disagree:

I don’t care about the division this year. In a perfect world to me bills beat the patriots. We have 2 probable games go our way chiefs beating bengals and Seahawks beating Steelers. Playoffs are clinched! 

 

Following week I would be in full support of treating Miami as a bye week. Rest up,

get healthy and let’s go on a run. No risk of any other significant injury. Bills are as good as anyone in AFC this year. They aren’t getting a 1 seed. I don’t care if it’s wildcard or afc championship to make Super Bowl they will likely have to go KC and Baltimore and win which they can do. 

 

Lastly looking wayyyy ahead to next year. I know anything can happen and it’s sometime when you play a team not who you play. But Miami wins division this year. Next year for the uncommon opponents they get the chiefs, ravens  and lions. Bills get broncos, browns and Vikings. Trust me I’m 1000% overly focused and all in this year but to me that’s significant in another competitive year. 

 

 

 

 

 

Absolutely why kill ourselves for a home game just rest up and get focused for the playoffs . Now if the #2 seed is available that’s 2 home games and we can’t bypass that. But then again the Bills had a late bye this season maybe we don’t need the extra rest maybe we need to play and stay sharp . At the end of the day the Bills won’t rest anyone the last week if the division is at stake because that’s bad for business . 

[Big Blitz]

If we don’t win the division the playoff run could be:

 

at KC

 

at Miami

 

at Baltimore 

 

 

That’s not optimal.  
 

 

Getting a home game and assuming Baltimore is the 1 seed would look something like this:

 

vs likely 6 seed - I’d guess that’s Cleveland; Miami would be the 5 and play AFC South winner; Miami would then be at Baltimore RD 2

at KC; maybe home if the 7 beats KC 

AFCCG could be at Baltimore or home vs Miami

 

Who the 7 seed will be I have no idea but they usually don’t beat the 2 seed.  

Edited December 25, 2023 by Big Blitz

[gonzo1105]

It’s a really weird year in the AFC where basically the whole conference is bunched. 
 

I feel like this every year where the Bills are good enough to win it all but have a tendency to squander games they shouldn’t putting them at a disadvantage in the playoffs. Hopefully they stay hot and get on a run. I’d prefer a team like Indianapolis in round 1 but it’s highly likely we will be against a team like Miami, Baltimore or KC in round 1

[Warcodered]

Getting in is obviously the most important thing, but if you can get a home game ***** get it.

[BuffaloBillyG]

Throw out the London "home" game and the Bills are 6-1 at home this year with only the "12 men on the field" chaos as the only loss.

 

The Dolphins are 7-1 at home. Ravens 5-2. Browns 7-1. Oddly for the reputation of being a hard place to win, the Chief are 4-3 at home. In the NFC Dallas is 7-0. Both San Fran and Philly are 5-1 with the Lions checking in at 5-2. Pretty compelling story for wanting home playoff games this year. It's hard enough to beat good teams in the NFL. Beating them at their house is even tougher.

 

Now, I do believe if they play with the fire and attitude they had in the Cowboys game they can beat any team home or away. But let's the games are in Orchard Park. We do make a difference.

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, BillsFooteball said:

Bills are as good as anyone in AFC this year.

 

Yes they are, from a player perspective, particularly on offense. 

 

The TBD $100,000 question is whether or not coaching is up to the task.  Generally speaking the AFC playoff teams have good coaches at the division championship level anyway.  

 

 

[Heavy Kevi]

If you can get the div this year you get the div.

 

Burn the boats and go all in for it 

 

But if fins win the div, next year's sched will be a consolation prize.

 

Lombardi this year and next year's sched could be all London games idc!

[KHAN]

Home playoff games are important. If you're playing for that, you go 100.

[djp14150]

1 hour ago, peterpan said:

Honestly teams that get byes usually come out flat. The bills lost guys like Milano and white early but I don’t feel like we are too banged up right now. 
 

im curious what scenario is there where, we would play Miami in back to back weeks.  In that case I think it would be prudent to save some of the playbook and set them up for failure the following week 

 

If Miami L next week and  bills W….…Bills win the game for division and KC doesn’t L then BUF is #3 and MIA could be #6 ( lose ties with browns).

 

IF MIA W next week, but L to BUF…MIA could be #2 and if , KC lose 1, Bills L to NE then they could be #7 in WC. IF BUF WW, and KC W out, BAL W week 18 for bye, then MIA is seed #3 and BUF by WW could be #6 if CLE WW

IF MIA L and Bills L…MIA gets division…then you have scenarios where BUF must W bringing A game, around mia being 2/3 and BUF bring 6/7 causing a rematch.

 

 

 

 

Next year in 2nd place BUF host DEN/LV, at CLE/BAL, at MIN/GB ( there is a scenario where CHI in 2nd but that involves a T of GB/MIN next week)

 

win div its KC ( magic number is 1 for clinch division) ,  at CLE/BAL, at DET

 

[juno999]

I'll truly be surprised if the Fish beat the Ravens in Baltimore.  So the Bills will be all in against the Fish week 18.  If there's nothing to play for week 18, they'll play many of their backups and give some starters a lighter snap count.

[Mr. WEO]

2 hours ago, peterpan said:

Honestly teams that get byes usually come out flat. The bills lost guys like Milano and white early but I don’t feel like we are too banged up right now. 
 

im curious what scenario is there where, we would play Miami in back to back weeks.  In that case I think it would be prudent to save some of the playbook and set them up for failure the following week 

 

agree 100%.  Dungy would always do this.  

[No_Matter_What]

2 hours ago, BillsFooteball said:

First off Merry Christmas bills fans! 
I wanted to throw out a scenario that I’m hopeful for but don’t believe will be popular take and would love to get some feedback. 

 

First most important I just want bills to get in playoffs. This year more than ever has taken a toll on me. Jets, patriots, broncos, and eagles losses particular were heartbreaking. Give me even one of those wins and we likely are not even having this conversation. I would be all about the 1 seed. For now though  Bills making the playoffs and having an opportunity to go on a run is priority #1. 

 

Now where we may  disagree:

I don’t care about the division this year. In a perfect world to me bills beat the patriots. We have 2 probable games go our way chiefs beating bengals and Seahawks beating Steelers. Playoffs are clinched! 

 

Following week I would be in full support of treating Miami as a bye week. Rest up,

get healthy and let’s go on a run. No risk of any other significant injury. Bills are as good as anyone in AFC this year. They aren’t getting a 1 seed. I don’t care if it’s wildcard or afc championship to make Super Bowl they will likely have to go KC and Baltimore and win which they can do. 

 

Lastly looking wayyyy ahead to next year. I know anything can happen and it’s sometime when you play a team not who you play. But Miami wins division this year. Next year for the uncommon opponents they get the chiefs, ravens  and lions. Bills get broncos, browns and Vikings. Trust me I’m 1000% overly focused and all in this year but to me that’s significant in another competitive year. 

 

 

 

 

 

Interesting. After week 17 I'll tell you what I think. But I can imagine agreeing with this.

[TampaBillsJunkie]

I'm hoping SF wins tonight, forcing the Dolphins and Baltimore to go all out for the #1 seed. Best case Baltimore wins, we beat NE and it all comes down to Miami. We win that with a Chiefs lose one and we are the #2 and they would have to go through Buffalo.  2nd best scenario is we get the #3.  Then it's a #6 or #7 and a tough road to the Super Bowl, but at least we are in.  it's one game at a time and the rest will sort itself out.  The Bills put themselves in this position and now they can win themselves out. 

[Eastport bills]

4 hours ago, BillsFooteball said:

First off Merry Christmas bills fans! 
I wanted to throw out a scenario that I’m hopeful for but don’t believe will be popular take and would love to get some feedback. 

 

First most important I just want bills to get in playoffs. This year more than ever has taken a toll on me. Jets, patriots, broncos, and eagles losses particular were heartbreaking. Give me even one of those wins and we likely are not even having this conversation. I would be all about the 1 seed. For now though  Bills making the playoffs and having an opportunity to go on a run is priority #1. 

 

Now where we may  disagree:

I don’t care about the division this year. In a perfect world to me bills beat the patriots. We have 2 probable games go our way chiefs beating bengals and Seahawks beating Steelers. Playoffs are clinched! 

 

Following week I would be in full support of treating Miami as a bye week. Rest up,

get healthy and let’s go on a run. No risk of any other significant injury. Bills are as good as anyone in AFC this year. They aren’t getting a 1 seed. I don’t care if it’s wildcard or afc championship to make Super Bowl they will likely have to go KC and Baltimore and win which they can do. 

 

Lastly looking wayyyy ahead to next year. I know anything can happen and it’s sometime when you play a team not who you play. But Miami wins division this year. Next year for the uncommon opponents they get the chiefs, ravens  and lions. Bills get broncos, browns and Vikings. Trust me I’m 1000% overly focused and all in this year but to me that’s significant in another competitive year. 

 

 

 

 

 

You make excellent points but if Miami loses to Baltimore next week and we beat NE, that’s a home playoff game with the division title if we beat Miami. Wouldn’t you prefer playing KC or Miami at home in the WC round.

[RyanC883]

4 hours ago, HardyBoy said:

I think a lot matters if the Dolphins beat the Ravens. Assuming the Dolphins win, Bills win and the Bills get a playoff spot because other stuff happens, I still don’t see a situation where Allen ends his game streak to rest, which means you have the oline starting.

 

Dolphins could be wild card opponent too, so not sure if that changes things, but you might try and set up plays for the following week?

 

play Allen 1-2 drives like preseason? 

 

But if a 1-2 home playoff games are on the line play for that!!

Edited December 25, 2023 by RyanC883

[Punching Bag]

3 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Now, I do believe if they play with the fire and attitude they had in the Cowboys game they can beat any team home or away. But let's the games are in Orchard Park. We do make a difference.

 

I think the Cowpoke game was anomaly because it is a McDermott defense taken to extreme with lighter players built for speed.

Bills have some of those type players - Taron Johnson, Jordan Poyer and Taylor Rapp - but they are very strong for their size.  In one game they pulled a DT replacing spot with Poyer with offense lineman with expression of "WTF?" and then Poyer pushed lineman back into pocket.

[RG Murdock]

I like the idea of FINALLY getting the Chiefs here next year!! That goes out the window if Bills finish second.. 

[Paup 1995MVP]

12 hours ago, Process said:

If dolphins and browns win and we clinch playoffs, I think they should rest guys. 

 

If 5 seed is in play you have to go for it. Getting to play the afcs is too valuable.

The Dolphins are not beating the Ravens in Baltimore.  
 

Winning the division in Miami will be the high point of the regular season.  And that momentum will take us to the Super Bowl.  

[Utah John]

If the Ravens beat the Dolphins and the Bills beat the Pats next week, the Bills can take the 2 seed in the AFC by beating Miami.  I would say that's worth going all out for the win.

2 hours ago, RG Murdock said:

I like the idea of FINALLY getting the Chiefs here next year!! That goes out the window if Bills finish second.. 

I'm not doubting you, but could you please clarify why this is?  

 

I know there is a series of explanations why the Bills have played KC every year almost forever, and why almost all the games have been in KC, but I don't know what the reasons are.  So this isn't a big rant, it's just a question.  Thanks in advance.

[TFBillsfan]

Miami and Baltimore will be playing for the #1 seed next week. If Baltimore wins they can rest their players in week 18 if they’d like as they’d have the head to head tiebreaker. We certainly want to win the division and secure the 2 seed in that situation.

 

We’d most likely face Indy, Houston or Pitt in the first round. 7 vs 2

 

Cleveland vs KC 6 vs 3

MIA vs Jags* 4 vs 5

 

Round two would be another home game against KC, MIA or the Jags. 
 

Next year is next year. Seize the opportunity this year!!!!

 

Beat NE and lose to MIA and we’ll be back to Arrowhead to open the playoffs. 

[sven233]

13 hours ago, BillsFooteball said:

First off Merry Christmas bills fans! 
I wanted to throw out a scenario that I’m hopeful for but don’t believe will be popular take and would love to get some feedback. 

 

First most important I just want bills to get in playoffs. This year more than ever has taken a toll on me. Jets, patriots, broncos, and eagles losses particular were heartbreaking. Give me even one of those wins and we likely are not even having this conversation. I would be all about the 1 seed. For now though  Bills making the playoffs and having an opportunity to go on a run is priority #1. 

 

Now where we may  disagree:

I don’t care about the division this year. In a perfect world to me bills beat the patriots. We have 2 probable games go our way chiefs beating bengals and Seahawks beating Steelers. Playoffs are clinched! 

 

Following week I would be in full support of treating Miami as a bye week. Rest up,

get healthy and let’s go on a run. No risk of any other significant injury. Bills are as good as anyone in AFC this year. They aren’t getting a 1 seed. I don’t care if it’s wildcard or afc championship to make Super Bowl they will likely have to go KC and Baltimore and win which they can do. 

 

Lastly looking wayyyy ahead to next year. I know anything can happen and it’s sometime when you play a team not who you play. But Miami wins division this year. Next year for the uncommon opponents they get the chiefs, ravens  and lions. Bills get broncos, browns and Vikings. Trust me I’m 1000% overly focused and all in this year but to me that’s significant in another competitive year. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I brought this all up in another thread.  But what it really breaks down to is if you can win the division in week 18, you play to win the game.  If we win and Miami beats the Ravens and clinch the division, as long as we are mathematically locked into a spot no matter what happens in the game, then I am all for resting key players or guys that are nursing small things.

 

But yeah.....if you can win the division by beating Miami you go all out and you try to spank them in the process.

[chongli]

I want the number 2 seed. Then we host the number 7 seed in the WC and KC (Miami?) probably in the divisionals.

[Billznut]

Before today’s games no one was really thinking about the Bills being the 2 seed. Now it is very realistically within our grasp. To only need 3 things to happen to achieve this. (Win both our games, have Balt beat Miami). I would hope this would be every fan’s goal and thought process from today on. No reason to be thinking about resting players or worrying about next years opponents. I’m shocked everyone doesn’t realize this yet and start focusing on how getting the 2 seed now is quite attainable. 

Edited December 26, 2023 by Billznut

[ganesh]

16 hours ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

We still have a solid chance at playing two home games to start the playoffs. That’s what to root for.

This!.   If the Ravens beat the Dolphins  (and we take care of business at home against the Patriots) then the AFC East division title is on the line.  If we win, then we get a home game in January.  The Bills will be playing their starters in that game

 

As a likely #2 seed we also will get the 2nd team from AFC North or the 2nd team from the suddenly weak AFC South in that home playoff game. And if we win that then we will get a 2nd home playoff game against likely against the Chiefs but in HighMark stadium.

[Richard Noggin]

16 hours ago, mrags said:

I think if they already have it clinched going into the dolphins game. There’s a chance they start the starters but pull them mid Game. Especially if things are getting out of hand in either direction. 
 

but I will say this. I am hoping for a home playoff game. If for nothing else, then to sell my playoff tix for a brinks truck full of cash. 

 

About the bolded: selling season tickets, especially for important/playoff games...you have to assume the buyers willing to pay premiums (your stated goal) are opposing fans. Especially if you're in the lower bowl. And even more-so if you're on the visiting side or at least close to the field. 

 

On one hand, I support anyone of working class means who can turn a little profit (or at least mitigate costs) off this corporate sports entertainment club membership. It's 100% your right.

 

But on the other hand, I facking hate queuing through the gate surrounded by loud Canadians/out-of-towners sporting opponent gear, and then seeing the closest seats around the field (especially visiting side) teeming with visiting fans. That's some LA and Miami mercenary shizz. 

 

Basically, you do you. But also, shame on you. Both things can be true. 

[Doc Brown]

It's simple.  The only way we're resting guys in the finale is if a Wild Card game is already clinched and we're locked into the #6 seed.  That means a couple of games falling our way and Miami beating the Ravens.

[Doc Brown]

3 hours ago, Utah John said:

I know there is a series of explanations why the Bills have played KC every year almost forever, and why almost all the games have been in KC, but I don't know what the reasons are.  So this isn't a big rant, it's just a question.  Thanks in advance.

Just the way the schedule was constructed back in 2002 when they went to four team divisions.  We could very well host them three years in a row now if we happen to finish in the same place in the division this year and next (2024, 2025).  We're for sure scheduled to play them at home in 2026.  Season opener in new stadium?

[ganesh]

59 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Just the way the schedule was constructed back in 2002 when they went to four team divisions.  We could very well host them three years in a row now if we happen to finish in the same place in the division this year and next (2024, 2025).  We're for sure scheduled to play them at home in 2026.  Season opener in new stadium?

It has always been very simple.

When playing against the entire division, then it is always a. Home-Away-Home pattern....2017 - Chiefs at Home,  2020 - Bills at Home and 2023 - Chiefs at home.   In the non-division year, the same finish positions play each other but at the same location for the two years and then they will rotate again.  So Chiefs got to host the Bills in 2021 and 2022 as the AFC West is home to AFC East.  In 2024 and 2025, we will host whoever we are playing against in AFC West.

[Buftex]

No...if there is any seeding advantage in week 18, you play to win the Dolphins game.  

[Doc Brown]

4 minutes ago, ganesh said:

It has always been very simple.

When playing against the entire division, then it is always a. Home-Away-Home pattern....2017 - Chiefs at Home,  2020 - Bills at Home and 2023 - Chiefs at home.   In the non-division year, the same finish positions play each other but at the same location for the two years and then they will rotate again.  So Chiefs got to host the Bills in 2021 and 2022 as the AFC West is home to AFC East.  In 2024 and 2025, we will host whoever we are playing against in AFC West.

I always get a kick out of the casual fan that's mad that we had to go to Kansas City again this season.  I hope the NFL never messes with this scheduling format as it's perfectly constructed.  The only way they could improve it is to make one neutral site game internationally (the AFC/NFC oddball game when they added the 17th) and give each team eight home and away games each year.

[GunnerBill]

I don't think you ever sacrifice getting better playoff seeding this year for an easier schedule next year but I do think since they added the 17th game and there are now 3 games on the schedule that are determined by position the previous year rather than 2 it definitely feels like a bigger advantage in a tight division race. 

[Billy Claude]

56 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I don't think you ever sacrifice getting better playoff seeding this year for an easier schedule next year but I do think since they added the 17th game and there are now 3 games on the schedule that are determined by position the previous year rather than 2 it definitely feels like a bigger advantage in a tight division race.

 

You often get an easier game as a 5th seed than as a third seed though you lose home field. Of course 5th seed is unlikely this year.

Edited December 26, 2023 by Billy Claude