Interesting Diggs Split Stat from The Athletic

[inthebuff]

"When Diggs was on the field, the Bills gained 432 yards and averaged an outstanding 7.2 yards per play. Diggs played on all but 11 snaps for the Bills. On those 11 plays, the Bills gained only 11 yards — a horrible average of one yard per play."

 

Whoa.

 

There could be some factors - which Joe Buscaglia really didn't delve into in the article - he just pointed out the average yards per play when Diggs is not on the field.  The article points out that there aren't other skill players who "strikes fear into the opponent. "

[Warriorspikes51]

Diggs and Josh haven't quite had their "bestie" chemistry on the field the last few games

 

I hope he is fed the ball in Chicago 

Edited December 19, 2022 by Warriorspikes51

[TOboy]

Diggs is our #1 weapon and one of the elite guys in the NFL so this should come as no surprise. 
 

That said, I suspect the plays Diggs has sat out may be skewed by short yardage or obvious run plays. Also, the sample size is pretty small. 

Edited December 19, 2022 by TOboy

[DaggersEOD]

Pfft slacker. 11 plays off?

 

Time to climb off that giant pile of money and play some ball FFS 😁

[SCBills]

Not shocking.. I'd have to imagine the Chiefs splits are similar with Kelce on/off the field.  

 

Both teams now have one elite playmaker and some guys.  

 

Comparing the Bills/Chiefs skill guys to the Bengals, Dolphins, Chargers is pretty eye-opening. 

[Dan Darragh]

11 plays is a miniscule sample size, this is meaningless drivel.

[muppy]

I like this stat better

 

 

[716]

1 hour ago, SCBills said:

Not shocking.. I'd have to imagine the Chiefs splits are similar with Kelce on/off the field.  

 

Both teams now have one elite playmaker and some guys.  

 

Comparing the Bills/Chiefs skill guys to the Bengals, Dolphins, Chargers is pretty eye-opening. 

It really highlights the value of having a true QB 1. 

[appoo]

1 hour ago, inthebuff said:

"When Diggs was on the field, the Bills gained 432 yards and averaged an outstanding 7.2 yards per play. Diggs played on all but 11 snaps for the Bills. On those 11 plays, the Bills gained only 11 yards — a horrible average of one yard per play."

 

Whoa.

 

There could be some factors - which Joe Buscaglia really didn't delve into in the article - he just pointed out the average yards per play when Diggs is not on the field.  The article points out that there aren't other skill players who "strikes fear into the opponent. "

 

That could be a wildly misleading stat, in prior games Diggs came off on bigger sets, when the offense only wanted 1-3 yards.

 

Would need a lot more analysis to make this an actually useful stat

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, SCBills said:

Not shocking.. I'd have to imagine the Chiefs splits are similar with Kelce on/off the field.  

 

Both teams now have one elite playmaker and some guys.  

 

Comparing the Bills/Chiefs skill guys to the Bengals, Dolphins, Chargers is pretty eye-opening. 

Couldn't agree more. Teams like Miami & Cincy with 2 elite pass catchers makes a world of difference. 

[Solomon Grundy]

1 hour ago, SCBills said:

Not shocking.. I'd have to imagine the Chiefs splits are similar with Kelce on/off the field.  

 

Both teams now have one elite playmaker and some guys.  

 

Comparing the Bills/Chiefs skill guys to the Bengals, Dolphins, Chargers is pretty eye-opening. 

McKinnon is a bonafide weapon in the Chiefs offense

[somnus00]

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Couldn't agree more. Teams like Miami & Cincy with 2 elite pass catchers makes a world of difference. 

We need some playmakers on rookie contracts from the next couple of drafts. Outside of Allen and Diggs we don't have much. At least not consistently. 

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, inthebuff said:

"When Diggs was on the field, the Bills gained 432 yards and averaged an outstanding 7.2 yards per play. Diggs played on all but 11 snaps for the Bills. On those 11 plays, the Bills gained only 11 yards — a horrible average of one yard per play."

 

Whoa.

 

There could be some factors - which Joe Buscaglia really didn't delve into in the article - he just pointed out the average yards per play when Diggs is not on the field.  The article points out that there aren't other skill players who "strikes fear into the opponent. "

Well this is misleading.  How many of those 11 snaps did we have a big formation to go for a short yard conversion?  
 

The formations and plays called and game situation play so much into this that this stat can’t be relied on to mean anything without that context.

[SCBills]

Just now, somnus00 said:

We need some playmakers on rookie contracts from the next couple of drafts. Outside of Allen and Diggs we don't have much. At least not consistently. 

 

I feel like Gabe and Knox are starting to show signs... There's sign of life from them in the passing game.  It's not popping just yet.. Gabe still isn't putting up numbers a WR2 should in this Offense and Knox still has the drops here and there.   But Davis is starting to show he can do more than just go routes, and Knox showed why he's so dangerous when we can get him vertical in the passing game.  

 

Get those two going heading into the playoffs, and this Offense will take off.  

 

Things should open up more for us when the Bills take the restraints off Allen and he just starts gashing teams on the ground whenever they give him a lane. 

[wjag]

It's not hard to fathom.  When Diggs is off, there isn't a bigger tell in football that a run is coming.

[ticketssince61]

29 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Well this is misleading.  How many of those 11 snaps did we have a big formation to go for a short yard conversion?  
 

The formations and plays called and game situation play so much into this that this stat can’t be relied on to mean anything without that context.

 

Exactly - he is taken off of the field for the really short yardage situations. 

[78thealltimegreat]

Not surprised when you bring back Cole and John you don’t have much confidence in the other guys currently on the roster 

[Big Turk]

3 hours ago, inthebuff said:

"When Diggs was on the field, the Bills gained 432 yards and averaged an outstanding 7.2 yards per play. Diggs played on all but 11 snaps for the Bills. On those 11 plays, the Bills gained only 11 yards — a horrible average of one yard per play."

 

Whoa.

 

There could be some factors - which Joe Buscaglia really didn't delve into in the article - he just pointed out the average yards per play when Diggs is not on the field.  The article points out that there aren't other skill players who "strikes fear into the opponent. "

 

That's because when he is off the field it's usually in obvious run situations, which the Bills didn't do so well in this game.

[Beck Water]

3 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Diggs and Josh haven't quite had their "bestie" chemistry on the field the last few games

 

I hope he is fed the ball in Chicago 

 

With all respect, I think that's a mistaken hope.

 

Diggs was "fed" the ball against Detroit.  He wound up with 8 catches on 15 targets or 53% catch

 

Diggs needs to get the ball when he's open.   If Josh has time, Diggs will usually work his way open.  He's very good.

 

But especially when the OL isn't holding up against the pass rush du jour, we need to do more of what we did vs. Miami: spread the ball around to other targets.  Take the quick shots.  Then when the defense is like "oh, we're being nibbled to death, we need to stop it", throw to Diggs.

 

Nate Geary:

 

 

And Diggs needs to stop getting visibly pissy on the field and throwing his helmet (IMO) when someone else is targeted and he thinks it should be him.  He doesn't know the timing, he doesn't know what Josh is seeing, he's putting a lot of pressure on his QB.  Contrary to what people say, this is far from saying "I was open, throw to me, I'll make you right" on the sideline or "I Got You" in the huddle.

 

The above didn't stop Diggs from getting his targets BTW, he got just as many. 

 

Edited December 19, 2022 by Beck Water

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, somnus00 said:

We need some playmakers on rookie contracts from the next couple of drafts. Outside of Allen and Diggs we don't have much. At least not consistently. 

That's why it's critical we draft 2 wrs next year. Diggs is quickly approaching 30. Cole & John are playoff rentals.  Who knows what happens to Gabe or Isaiah based on inconsistent play? We have a ton of question marks for next season.

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, SCBills said:

 

I feel like Gabe and Knox are starting to show signs...

 

Davis had a very good game against Miami.  6 targets, 4 receptions, 56 yds.  Josh did not try to force the ball in to him or throw it away in his direction because he remained too well covered.  Josh threw it to someone else who was not so well covered, and the passing game worked better.

 

1 hour ago, SCBills said:

 But Davis is starting to show he can do more than just go routes, and Knox showed why he's so dangerous when we can get him vertical in the passing game.  

 

Davis has been running more than just "go" routes all season.  His best route is probably the

The problem has been that he either hasn't hung on to the ball, or that he's well covered with a high probability of a PD, or an INT if the throw is a bit off.

 

1 hour ago, SCBills said:

Get those two going heading into the playoffs, and this Offense will take off.  

 

The way to get the offense to take off, is to target whoever is open.

 

 

 

[somnus00]

1 hour ago, SCBills said:

 

I feel like Gabe and Knox are starting to show signs... There's sign of life from them in the passing game.  It's not popping just yet.. Gabe still isn't putting up numbers a WR2 should in this Offense and Knox still has the drops here and there.   But Davis is starting to show he can do more than just go routes, and Knox showed why he's so dangerous when we can get him vertical in the passing game.  

 

Get those two going heading into the playoffs, and this Offense will take off.  

 

Things should open up more for us when the Bills take the restraints off Allen and he just starts gashing teams on the ground whenever they give him a lane. 

You have a point there. And i hope you're right. We need guys to step up from here on out. I also think there is something to the hypothesis of Allen suffering a concussion in the packers game. Against the fish, he looked more like early season Josh. Using his other guys more like the game had slowed down again.

[blacklabel]

Yeah, I saw this. Kinda interesting.

 

Diggs has 99 receptions this season. The receptions among the rest of the main skill players are really consistent. Knox has 43, Davis has 42, McKenzie has an even 40, and Singletary has 35. Next player with the most receptions is Cook with 18. It's like, obviously Diggs is the clear number one, but the number two on this team is a mix of four different players lol. 

 

Before the season, I felt like they were pretty well set at WR. Davis had kind of a slow start but I think he's been picking it up these last few weeks. I want to be a McKenzie fan, but the dude is just so inconsistent. One week he'll go off for 10 catches, 135 yards and a TD, then follow it up with four drops, a fumble and a jet sweep that goes for -8 yards. Knox has had to play a lot more in-line than he usually does but they are getting him more involved late in the season here.

 

Not gonna hold my breath for Beasley or Brown to pop up with a huge game anytime soon. Hopefully with Beasley back in the mix they can run more plays as Josh was saying they've been limited with some stuff because nobody could execute it like Beasley. 

 

Diggs is the guy, though. Wonder if they're limiting him a bit just to keep him fresh for the post-season.

[pennstate10]

3 hours ago, Dan Darragh said:

11 plays is a miniscule sample size, this is meaningless drivel.

Not true. 
this is really a simple and well known statistical question. 
You simply need to do a students t test comparing the yards gained for each of the 11 plays he was out vs the 72 he was in. 
My guess is that you would have a significant result. 

[Billsfan1972]

I remember one play he went off and that was after that ridiculous lateral for -3 yards.  

 

That pass/lateral was an ill-advised play that appeared to be run just to get him the ball and it appeared Diggs was upset at the call and a play that had no opportunity of success.

 

Could see frustration that has was not getting the ball thrown his way and this does come up every once in a while.

 

Fine balance between getting him involved and forcing his the ball.

 

  

[JohnNord]

5 hours ago, inthebuff said:

"When Diggs was on the field, the Bills gained 432 yards and averaged an outstanding 7.2 yards per play. Diggs played on all but 11 snaps for the Bills. On those 11 plays, the Bills gained only 11 yards — a horrible average of one yard per play."

 

Whoa.

 

There could be some factors - which Joe Buscaglia really didn't delve into in the article - he just pointed out the average yards per play when Diggs is not on the field.  The article points out that there aren't other skill players who "strikes fear into the opponent. "

They typically take Diggs out during running plays.  The Bills OL isn’t the best at run blocking.  It’s not surprise those numbers with him out are so low, but Diggs is the best weapon and probably the only player every defense is watching 

[Mr. WEO]

5 hours ago, SCBills said:

Not shocking.. I'd have to imagine the Chiefs splits are similar with Kelce on/off the field.  

 

Both teams now have one elite playmaker and some guys.  

 

Comparing the Bills/Chiefs skill guys to the Bengals, Dolphins, Chargers is pretty eye-opening. 

 

Chargers have on receiver (barely) over 700 yards.  They spread it around.  No standouts.  Ekeler is the playmaker on that team.

[Dan Darragh]

2 hours ago, pennstate10 said:

Not true. 
this is really a simple and well known statistical question. 
You simply need to do a students t test comparing the yards gained for each of the 11 plays he was out vs the 72 he was in. 
My guess is that you would have a significant result. 

Try normalizing for down and distance and you'll find that you're down to 2 or 3 plays per case.   Useless from a statistical point of view.

[SCBills]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Chargers have on receiver (barely) over 700 yards.  They spread it around.  No standouts.  Ekeler is the playmaker on that team.

Haven’t their receivers been injured on and off all season?

[Mr. WEO]

4 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Haven’t their receivers been injured on and off all season?

some have missed games.  None elite anyway

[Chaos]

4 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

That's why it's critical we draft 2 wrs next year. Diggs is quickly approaching 30. Cole & John are playoff rentals.  Who knows what happens to Gabe or Isaiah based on inconsistent play? We have a ton of question marks for next season.

Oline is where it is at. If Josh has time, any five Jags at WR will be just fine. 

[RocCityRoller]

It's when we put the jumbo package in in clear short yardage situations. Like 4th and 1 or 3rd and goal.

I don't need Diggs in those demolition derbies.

 

Averaging 1 yard a play on 11 plays, when you need one yard makes sense.

[ganesh]

8 hours ago, SCBills said:

Not shocking.. I'd have to imagine the Chiefs splits are similar with Kelce on/off the field.  

 

Both teams now have one elite playmaker and some guys.  

 

Comparing the Bills/Chiefs skill guys to the Bengals, Dolphins, Chargers is pretty eye-opening. 

It also tells what Mahomes and Allen are compared to the QBs of those other teams.

[buffalover4life]

7 hours ago, Dan Darragh said:

11 plays is a miniscule sample size, this is meaningless drivel.

Correct, We probably handed the ball off 7 of those times. Diggs is on the field if we're throwing the ball

[DCofNC]

26 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Oline is where it is at. If Josh has time, any five Jags at WR will be just fine. 

OL has to be better, but there’s nothing at the skill positions, you can’t rely on Josh exclusively.

[Ya Digg?]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

some have missed games.  None elite anyway

They’re paid like they are though! 😂

[AuntieEm]

39 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Oline is where it is at. If Josh has time, any five Jags at WR will be just fine. 

 

   Could you imagine the damage Josh would do if they had a solid ol?  He'd be able to direct his wrs and could then easily pick and choose who's turn it is to catch. 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 20, 2022 by AuntieEm

[NoSaint]

8 hours ago, TOboy said:

Diggs is our #1 weapon and one of the elite guys in the NFL so this should come as no surprise. 
 

That said, I suspect the plays Diggs has sat out may be skewed by short yardage or obvious run plays. Also, the sample size is pretty small. 

Yea, without context it’s near meaningless as a stat.

 

that said, he’s definitely leaps and bounds ahead of everyone not named Josh 

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

some have missed games.  None elite anyway

keenan Allen and Mike Williams have each missed significant games. To say some have missed games is underselling.

[Mr. WEO]

11 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

Yea, without context it’s near meaningless as a stat.

 

that said, he’s definitely leaps and bounds ahead of everyone not named Josh 

keenan Allen and Mike Williams have each missed significant games. To say some have missed games is underselling.

 

Fair point with Allen.  Williams missed 3.  Neither is in Diggs's stratum now.   Diggs/Davis is a solid combo.  The latter may crest 1000 yards this season---750 now on only 42 catches.

[Charles Romes]

Diggs has not gone crazy in five games and the team has won all five with only one interception during the streak. I like the way they are trying to build up a non-Diggs offense for defenses to have to game plan around. Yards went to Gabe and the running backs v the Browns, McKenzie v Detroit, backs for patriots, Knox v the dolphins.  I think they made a concerted effort to use Diggs as a decoy starting with the browns and it mainly worked.  

Edited December 20, 2022 by Charles Romes