golfball323 Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 Its weather. Even the nice home games aren't always great throwing conditions. Would be interesting to look at his poor home splits and see how other QBs played that day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Royale with Cheese Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 Luckily the Super Bowl isn’t played in Buffalo. He would be too hyped and throw 5 INT’s. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 16 minutes ago, Big Turk said: Maybe. It fits with why the splits were almost identical in the year there were no fans and skewed towards the road in the year before and year after. Why would it be that hard to believe when he readily admits he is too hyped for home games and has to calm himself down? Are you calling him a liar? He also readily admits he hates playing in inclimate weather….. is he lying? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted May 17, 2022 Author Share Posted May 17, 2022 10 minutes ago, NewEra said: You’re assuming that the reason is being too hyped….. Please show the statistical evidence that proves when he is “too hyped” and when he isn’t? Is it JUST playing at home? He played terrible @ jacksonville…maybe he was “too hyped” for that game? To prove what you are trying to explain (he’s too hyped playing in front of the home crowd), you must show when or when he is not “too hyped” which is impossible. Was he too hyped vs the pats in the playoff game? Vs the colts in the playoff game? Two of his best games ever…..and they were at home in front of the home fans. He MUST have been “too hyped” amirite? At home in the playoffs…. what is the criteria for being “too hyped”…… and how can you differentiate between being too hyped and not? Is he too hyped before every home game? Because that’s what’s you’re insinuating by using all of his home stats as support. Meanwhile we play in windiest stadium in the league….BY FAR. Several of the away games (which your insinuating that he wouldn’t be too hyped for) are played in domes with no elements. There are too many variable that you aren’t including. either way you want to see it, I think you’re just wasting your time (and ours for reading it) with this thought. carry on Yeah that’s it man. Case closed. Josh gets too hyped at home and sucks…..sometimes So did the stadium stop being windy in 2020? That's the whole point...he played an entire year with no fans WITH THE SAME WEATHER CONDITIONS as the year before and year after but didn't have the statistical dropoff he had the year before and year after with fans there. Why are you so willing to ignore that?? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dpberr Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 The answer is simple. The train horn. 1 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DabillsDaBillsDaBills Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 Just now, Big Turk said: So did the stadium stop being windy in 2020? That's the whole point...he played an entire year with no fans WITH THE SAME WEATHER CONDITIONS as the year before and year after but didn't have the statistical dropoff he had the year before and year after with fans there. Why are you so willing to ignore that?? You have to just be trolling at this point. Weather conditions vary from game to game in Buffalo and they were significantly worse in 2021 than in 2020. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted May 17, 2022 Author Share Posted May 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said: You have to just be trolling at this point. Weather conditions vary from game to game in Buffalo and they were significantly worse in 2021 than in 2020. Let me guess...I am supposed to believe they were also much worse in 2019 as well? In 2020 the Red Sea parted and the weather was perfect every game? And yeah I know conditions vary in Buffalo, I've lived here over 40 years. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan1959 Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 1 hour ago, Big Turk said: I still think it has to do with Allen becoming too hyped at home, even though he plays music to calm himself down, etc... My basis for thinking this is because in 2020 when there were no fans, the splits were nearly identical, home and away, although he was still slightly better on the road. However, once the fans came back, again he was significantly better on the road, just as he was the prior year...which is pretty clear evidence that he either tries to do too much at home, is too pumped up to try and wow the home fans or there is something else going on. His rookie year he was pretty much even...mostly bad stat wise in both places. 2019 Split 2020 Split(no fans) 2021 Split(fans again) Career Don't get me wrong, I love the fact he lives for going into other teams houses, taking their lunch money and then laughing in their faces as they cry for Mommy, but it would be nice to see him get a little closer to his road performances at home on balance... Also...the "more" primetime the game, the better he plays...improving each timeslot from early to afternoon to night. Patrick Mahomes has played 30 games at home and 33 on the road. On the road, he has: 1) A higher win % 2) A higher completion % (over 3% higher) 3) A better TD to INT ratio (with 23 more TDs on the road) 4) A higher QB rating (10 pts higher) 5) A higher avg yard per attempt 6) A higher avg yards gained per attempt 7) A higher avg yards per game WTF is wrong with him? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted May 17, 2022 Author Share Posted May 17, 2022 1 minute ago, billsfan1959 said: Patrick Mahomes has played 30 games at home and 33 on the road. On the road, he has: 1) A higher win % 2) A higher completion % (over 3% higher) 3) A better TD to INT ratio (with 23 more TDs on the road) 4) A higher QB rating (10 pts higher) 5) A higher avg yard per attempt 6) A higher avg yards gained per attempt 7) A higher avg yards per game WTF is wrong with him? He's a bum...a bum I tell ya! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Firebaugh Kid Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 Ummmmm Pats playoff game. End theory. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeGOATski Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 When he's at home he gets morning sex. It takes the edge off. Good for them, but she's a distraction. Plane and simple. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 (edited) First reason is bad weather games. Second is opponents. Nothing else causes a difference. EDIT: I'd have to look at his injuries too. I remember him dealing with injuries for some stretches of games. Edited May 17, 2022 by MJS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DabillsDaBillsDaBills Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 (edited) 22 minutes ago, Big Turk said: Let me guess...I am supposed to believe they were also much worse in 2019 as well? In 2020 the Red Sea parted and the weather was perfect every game? And yeah I know conditions vary in Buffalo, I've lived here over 40 years. Using starting temp and wind from PFR (precipitation going from memory). I'll note that they had the "wind game" against Patriots in 2021 listed at 19 MPH, and it was obviously significantly windier than that. By my count there were either 4 or 5 games in 2021 that had worse weather than the worst game in 2020. Seahawks in 2020 might've been the nicest ever November home game. Edited May 17, 2022 by DabillsDaBillsDaBills typo 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 47 minutes ago, Big Turk said: Maybe. It fits with why the splits were almost identical in the year there were no fans and skewed towards the road in the year before and year after. Why would it be that hard to believe when he readily admits he is too hyped for home games and has to calm himself down? Are you calling him a liar? Link? I don't remember him saying that about home games. Just games in general. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Otreply Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 It’s the underdog syndrome, when we have a home game the home field advantage takes away the underdog thought process, Josh has always been the underdog throughout his football life, now that is changing for him attitudinally, not to worry though he’s got that too, his overall maturation will allow him to overcome this as well, that and injuries and illness and just not playing well in the past home games, but that’s behind him now, this is going to be THE YEAR it ALL comes TOGETHER!!!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo716 Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 (edited) Correlation doesn't equal causation End thread Edited May 17, 2022 by Buffalo716 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrimeTime101 Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 1 hour ago, Big Turk said: I still think it has to do with Allen becoming too hyped at home, even though he plays music to calm himself down, etc... My basis for thinking this is because in 2020 when there were no fans, the splits were nearly identical, home and away, although he was still slightly better on the road. However, once the fans came back, again he was significantly better on the road, just as he was the prior year...which is pretty clear evidence that he either tries to do too much at home, is too pumped up to try and wow the home fans or there is something else going on. His rookie year he was pretty much even...mostly bad stat wise in both places. 2019 Split 2020 Split(no fans) 2021 Split(fans again) Career Don't get me wrong, I love the fact he lives for going into other teams houses, taking their lunch money and then laughing in their faces as they cry for Mommy, but it would be nice to see him get a little closer to his road performances at home on balance... Also...the "more" primetime the game, the better he plays...improving each timeslot from early to afternoon to night. I am requoting your original thread for 2 reasons. 1. take the first year out... does not if 2 numbers compare that first year the rest does not. Second... this is the biggest one... your TITLE! "Allen still is fairly significantly better on the Road than at Home. Splits don't lie. Thoughts as to why." what the heck is fairly significantly better supposed to even mean? your using 2 adverbs that mean 2 different things in front of the word "better". many of us are ripping this whole theory to shreds and then you continue to add horrible narratives like "he is more hyped up in home games" "TO SOME DEGREE sure the weather But.." Degree? Weather? "the majority of his bad games are at home as well" I mean do you really believe this? Did you watch the NE playoff game or any of the home games last year? Other then the Steelers we dominated home games last year offensively Seriously? is this whole thing just a well-hidden troll job or are you not reading anything you're writing down? and not reading all of our replies. You're blowing away one bad narrative after another.. Can't teach accuracy... can't play in loud stadiums... I mean seriously? what is this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strive_for_five_guy Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 13 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said: Using starting temp and wind from PFR (precipitation going from memory). I'll note that they had the "wind game" against Patriots in 2021 listed at 19 MPH, and it was obviously significantly windier than that. By my count there were either 4 or 5 games in 2021 that had worse weather than the worst game in 2020. Seahawks in 2020 might've been the nicest ever November home game. How dare you bring additional data points into this discussion… Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted May 17, 2022 Author Share Posted May 17, 2022 7 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said: I am requoting your original thread for 2 reasons. 1. take the first year out... does not if 2 numbers compare that first year the rest does not. Second... this is the biggest one... your TITLE! "Allen still is fairly significantly better on the Road than at Home. Splits don't lie. Thoughts as to why." what the heck is fairly significantly better supposed to even mean? your using 2 adverbs that mean 2 different things in front of the word "better". many of us are ripping this whole theory to shreds and then you continue to add horrible narratives like "he is more hyped up in home games" "TO SOME DEGREE sure the weather But.." Degree? Weather? "the majority of his bad games are at home as well" I mean do you really believe this? Did you watch the NE playoff game or any of the home games last year? Other then the Steelers we dominated home games last year offensively Seriously? is this whole thing just a well-hidden troll job or are you not reading anything you're writing down? and not reading all of our replies. You're blowing away one bad narrative after another.. Can't teach accuracy... can't play in loud stadiums... I mean seriously? what is this? Uh, the Colts game? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rochesterfan Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 1 hour ago, Big Turk said: I still think it has to do with Allen becoming too hyped at home, even though he plays music to calm himself down, etc... My basis for thinking this is because in 2020 when there were no fans, the splits were nearly identical, home and away, although he was still slightly better on the road. However, once the fans came back, again he was significantly better on the road, just as he was the prior year...which is pretty clear evidence that he either tries to do too much at home, is too pumped up to try and wow the home fans or there is something else going on. His rookie year he was pretty much even...mostly bad stat wise in both places. 2019 Split 2020 Split(no fans) 2021 Split(fans again) Career Don't get me wrong, I love the fact he lives for going into other teams houses, taking their lunch money and then laughing in their faces as they cry for Mommy, but it would be nice to see him get a little closer to his road performances at home on balance... Also...the "more" primetime the game, the better he plays...improving each timeslot from early to afternoon to night. Maybe do a touch of research on this - my god - Josh has been his best in high pressure games both at home and on the road. The Hype thing is stupid! Lets do a quick review - last year there were multiple home games like: NE - 27 mph winds (gusts to 50) and rain, Indy 20 mph wind and rain, Houston 35-40 mph gusts and rain. There were additional days with weather just as bad - rain/wind, combinations that made passing difficult. 2020 - No fans, but look at the beautiful weather. The worst home game in 2020 was NE on 11/1 the temp was 41. The wind peaked at 17 mph and it was lite rain on and off. That was the worst weather the Bills played in at home. The Denver game in Denver had the worst wind at 24 mph on a beautiful sunny and 47 degree December afternoon. There was not another game - home or away that hit 20 mph winds and the NE and KC home games were the only 2 with precipitation. The weather for the 2020 season was incredible and is the biggest thing that accounts for why his splits were similar. The Home versus Away weather last year was a horrific split with weather being colder, windier, and wetter at home by a significant margin. The 2019 season most home games were earlier in the season - the Nov and December games against Denver and Baltimore both had 20 mph winds and the Baltimore game said gusts to 40 - so they were easily as bad or worse than any game in 2020. Josh also missed out on the last home game against the Jets as everything was clinched. So if you are serious in asking about the split - look to the weather. Don’t try to pawn off the difference as some type of hype related crap - because the higher the pressure - the better he has played both at home and on the road. You want to fix the splits - suggest the new stadium is a true covered stadium where the weather is constant and no rain or wind and he will put up huge home numbers year after year. 45 minutes ago, Big Turk said: So did the stadium stop being windy in 2020? That's the whole point...he played an entire year with no fans WITH THE SAME WEATHER CONDITIONS as the year before and year after but didn't have the statistical dropoff he had the year before and year after with fans there. Why are you so willing to ignore that?? Go and look at the weather - do the work if you are going to make stupid claims. Yes the weather in 2020 was significantly better in Buffalo compared to the year before and after. It is a huge factor. Do the work to prove your point rather than making stuff up. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hemma Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 I guess the only solution is to alternate Keenum and Barkley for home games for the regular season. that’ll teach him to suck so bad. Bust. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 I dont know but I would think we would rather have him be better on the road then at home? because There are probably a LOT of players on this team that are better at home to take up the slack Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrimeTime101 Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 15 minutes ago, Big Turk said: Uh, the Colts game? Did you watch football last year? Colts was an away game. This is all you have to say after everything I just threw at you?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orlando Tim Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 Can we compare his stats vs his opponents in each game. He clearly had a bad game against the Pats* last year but was far better than Jones. I bet his opponents numbers were closer on the road than at home Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted May 17, 2022 Author Share Posted May 17, 2022 (edited) 4 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said: Did you watch football last year? Colts was an away game. This is all you have to say after everything I just threw at you?? I think the more pertinent question is, did YOU watch football last year? It was clearly a home game. Edited May 17, 2022 by Big Turk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrimeTime101 Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Big Turk said: I think the more pertinent question is, did YOU watch football last year? It was clearly a home game. your right I read the schedule wrong... you got 1 thing right.. congrats and thats 2 home games josh played bad... what about the other home games Josh played great? Did Josh have any bad games away? Im sure he did.. HORRIBLE NARRATIVE! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aussie Joe Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 Hey Turk… do you know if Cynthia Frelund factors this into her models when running her simulations on the Bills season? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrimeTime101 Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 Just now, Aussie Joe said: Hey Turk… do you know if Cynthia Frelund factors this into her models when running her simulations on the Bills season? HAHAHA THANK YOU! i needed this! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charles Romes Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 Crazy wind tunnels at the Ralph. Won’t have this problem with the Tottenham half-roof. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
julian Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 He’s just beginning to scratch the surface of his potential, considering where he started as a rookie, he’s on the upward trajectory. He’s a unique case study who’s story and career has many more moments, turns and statistics to be obtained before we can make any concrete conclusions. That being said, 17 seems to relish leading his team into enemy territory, it’s a great sign. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TBBills Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 2 hours ago, Big Turk said: Not wins-losses I am talking about...stats are significantly better on the road. 5% higher completion percentage in his career, passer rating 9 points higher, more TDs, fewer INTs, etc. What was the weather difference? Need more information... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FilthyBeast Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 I'm not sure this isolated to JA17. As a whole this team seems to play better football on the road and really struggles at home at times. This is why I really need to see consistent football through a 17 game regular season this year before I start booking tickets for a SB next Feb and it does start with JA17 and McDermott having this team ready week in and week out so there are no more Steelers and Jaguars type of outings in 2022. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magox Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 It could be a confluence of factors such as too much juju, weather, etc. One of the beautiful things about Josh is that he just keeps getting better and I don't see why that trend won't continue. I expect the variances in his performance to flatten out this year between the road and home games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakeFrommStateFarm Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 Blame it on the rain... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Blitz Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 Maybe we should start looking at it like "dam right he's better on the road because he goes into a lethal zero f..s given mode." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBrownBear Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 2 hours ago, dneveu said: I mean he legit pitched a perfect game at home against NE. More TDs than incompletions. Yeah. Color me NOT WORRIED. Just played one of the greatest games of all time, at home, against hated rival, in front of a packed and rabid fanbase, in the playoffs, against the GOAT coach, in 0 degree weather. So, he had better stats on the road than at home last year in a season where Buffalo had exceptionally bad weather on numerous game days. Case seems open and shut to me. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pi2000 Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 (edited) Highmark Stadium has the largest crown of any field in the NFL. The closer you get to the sidelines, the more "downhill" you are from the center of the field. This, combined with the swirling wind, make it the most difficult field in the NFL to throw the ball accurately. Edited May 17, 2022 by pi2000 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethan in Cleveland Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 I don’t see any difference in play except the weather. He has has bad home games like Pittsburgh last year and bad road games like Jacksonville. But in both those instances the entire team was unprepared to play. Josh is the least of my worries at home or on the road. He was virtually unstoppable in the second coldest game in franchise history. Temperature is not the issue. It was dry and not windy and by then the Bills had a reasonably reliable run game. Bad weather affects both QBs. Bills on paper should be better running the ball. Let's hope for better weather and better run blocking 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted May 17, 2022 Author Share Posted May 17, 2022 1 minute ago, TheBrownBear said: Yeah. Color me NOT WORRIED. Just played one of the greatest games of all time, at home, against hated rival, in front of a packed and rabid fanbase, in the playoffs, against the GOAT coach, in 0 degree weather. So, he had better stats on the road than at home last year in a season where Buffalo had exceptionally bad weather on numerous game days. Case seems open and shut to me. I didn't say I was worried...more curious as to the why behind it, and No, I don't believe it can be 100% explained by the weather as some seem so eager to do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dablitzkrieg Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.