Allen still is fairly significantly better on the Road than at Home. Splits don't lie. Thoughts as to why.

[golfball323]

Its weather. Even the nice home games aren't always great throwing conditions. Would be interesting to look at his poor home splits and see how other QBs played that day.

[Royale with Cheese]

Luckily the Super Bowl isn’t played in Buffalo.  He would be too hyped and throw 5 INT’s.

[NewEra]

16 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Maybe.  It fits with why the splits were almost identical in the year there were no fans and skewed towards the road in the year before and year after.  Why would it be that hard to believe when he readily admits he is too hyped for home games and has to calm himself down?  Are you calling him a liar?

 

 

He also readily admits he hates playing in inclimate weather….. is he lying?  

[Big Turk]

10 minutes ago, NewEra said:

You’re assuming that the reason is being too hyped…..

 

Please show the statistical evidence that proves when he is “too hyped” and when he isn’t?  Is it JUST playing at home?  He played terrible @ jacksonville…maybe he was “too hyped” for that game?  
 

To prove what you are trying to explain (he’s too hyped playing in front of the home crowd), you must show when or when he is not “too hyped” which is impossible. Was he too hyped vs the pats in the playoff game?  Vs the colts in the playoff game?  Two of his best games ever…..and they were at home in front of the home fans.  He MUST have been “too hyped” amirite?  At home in the playoffs….

 

what is the criteria for being “too hyped”…… 

and how can you differentiate between being too hyped and not?  Is he too hyped before every home game?  Because that’s what’s you’re insinuating by using all of his home stats as support.

 

Meanwhile we play in windiest stadium in the league….BY FAR.  Several of the away games (which your insinuating that he wouldn’t be too hyped for) are played in domes with no elements.  There are too many variable that you aren’t including.  
 

either way you want to see it, I think you’re just wasting your time (and ours for reading it) with this thought.  
 

carry on

Yeah that’s it man.  Case closed.  Josh gets too hyped at home and sucks…..sometimes 

 

 

So did the stadium stop being windy in 2020?  That's the whole point...he played an entire year with no fans WITH THE SAME WEATHER CONDITIONS as the year before and year after but didn't have the statistical dropoff he had the year before and year after with fans there.  Why are you so willing to ignore that??

[dpberr]

The answer is simple.

 

The train horn.

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

Just now, Big Turk said:

 

 

So did the stadium stop being windy in 2020?  That's the whole point...he played an entire year with no fans WITH THE SAME WEATHER CONDITIONS as the year before and year after but didn't have the statistical dropoff he had the year before and year after with fans there.  Why are you so willing to ignore that??

 

You have to just be trolling at this point. Weather conditions vary from game to game in Buffalo and they were significantly worse in 2021 than in 2020. 

[Big Turk]

3 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

You have to just be trolling at this point. Weather conditions vary from game to game in Buffalo and they were significantly worse in 2021 than in 2020. 

 

Let me guess...I am supposed to believe they were also much worse in 2019 as well? In 2020 the Red Sea parted and the weather was perfect every game?

 

And yeah I know conditions vary in Buffalo, I've lived here over 40 years.

[billsfan1959]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

I still think it has to do with Allen becoming too hyped at home, even though he plays music to calm himself down, etc...

 

My basis for thinking this is because in 2020 when there were no fans, the splits were nearly identical, home and away, although he was still slightly better on the road.  However, once the fans came back, again he was significantly better on the road, just as he was the prior year...which is pretty clear evidence that he either tries to do too much at home, is too pumped up to try and wow the home fans or there is something else going on. His rookie year he was pretty much even...mostly bad stat wise in both places.

 

2019 Split

 

2020 Split(no fans)

 

2021 Split(fans again)

 

Career

 

Don't get me wrong, I love the fact he lives for going into other teams houses, taking their lunch money and then laughing in their faces as they cry for Mommy, but it would be nice to see him get a little closer to his road performances at home on balance...

 

 

 

Also...the "more" primetime the game, the better he plays...improving each timeslot from early to afternoon to night.  

 

Patrick Mahomes has played 30 games at home and 33 on the road.

 

On the road, he has:

 

1) A higher win %

2) A higher completion % (over 3% higher)

3) A better TD to INT ratio (with 23 more TDs on the road)

4) A higher QB rating (10 pts higher)

5) A higher avg yard per attempt

6) A higher avg yards gained per attempt

7) A higher avg yards per game

 

WTF is wrong with him?

[Big Turk]

1 minute ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Patrick Mahomes has played 30 games at home and 33 on the road.

 

On the road, he has:

 

1) A higher win %

2) A higher completion % (over 3% higher)

3) A better TD to INT ratio (with 23 more TDs on the road)

4) A higher QB rating (10 pts higher)

5) A higher avg yard per attempt

6) A higher avg yards gained per attempt

7) A higher avg yards per game

 

WTF is wrong with him?

 

He's a bum...a bum I tell ya!

[The Firebaugh Kid]

Ummmmm Pats playoff game.

End theory. 

[LeGOATski]

When he's at home he gets morning sex. It takes the edge off. Good for them, but she's a distraction. Plane and simple.

[MJS]

First reason is bad weather games. Second is opponents.

 

Nothing else causes a difference.

 

EDIT: I'd have to look at his injuries too. I remember him dealing with injuries for some stretches of games.

Edited May 17, 2022 by MJS

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

22 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Let me guess...I am supposed to believe they were also much worse in 2019 as well? In 2020 the Red Sea parted and the weather was perfect every game?

 

And yeah I know conditions vary in Buffalo, I've lived here over 40 years.

 

Using starting temp and wind from PFR (precipitation going from memory). I'll note that they had the "wind game" against Patriots in 2021 listed at 19 MPH, and it was obviously significantly windier than that. By my count there were either 4 or 5 games in 2021 that had worse weather than the worst game in 2020. Seahawks in 2020 might've  been the nicest ever November home game. 

 

 

Edited May 17, 2022 by DabillsDaBillsDaBills
typo

[MJS]

47 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Maybe.  It fits with why the splits were almost identical in the year there were no fans and skewed towards the road in the year before and year after.  Why would it be that hard to believe when he readily admits he is too hyped for home games and has to calm himself down?  Are you calling him a liar?

Link? I don't remember him saying that about home games. Just games in general.

[Don Otreply]

It’s the underdog syndrome, when we have a home game the home field advantage takes away the underdog thought process,  Josh has always been the underdog throughout his football life, now that is changing for him attitudinally, not to worry though he’s got that too, his overall maturation will allow him to overcome this as well, that and injuries and illness and just not playing well in the past home games, but that’s behind him now, this is going to be THE YEAR it ALL comes TOGETHER!!!!!

[Buffalo716]

Correlation doesn't equal causation 

 

End thread

Edited May 17, 2022 by Buffalo716

[PrimeTime101]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

I still think it has to do with Allen becoming too hyped at home, even though he plays music to calm himself down, etc...

 

My basis for thinking this is because in 2020 when there were no fans, the splits were nearly identical, home and away, although he was still slightly better on the road.  However, once the fans came back, again he was significantly better on the road, just as he was the prior year...which is pretty clear evidence that he either tries to do too much at home, is too pumped up to try and wow the home fans or there is something else going on. His rookie year he was pretty much even...mostly bad stat wise in both places.

 

2019 Split

 

2020 Split(no fans)

 

2021 Split(fans again)

 

Career

 

Don't get me wrong, I love the fact he lives for going into other teams houses, taking their lunch money and then laughing in their faces as they cry for Mommy, but it would be nice to see him get a little closer to his road performances at home on balance...

 

 

 

Also...the "more" primetime the game, the better he plays...improving each timeslot from early to afternoon to night.  

I am requoting your original thread for 2 reasons. 1. take the first year out... does not if 2 numbers compare that first year the rest does not.

 

Second... this is the biggest one... your TITLE! 

 

"Allen still is fairly significantly better on the Road than at Home. Splits don't lie. Thoughts as to why."  what the heck is fairly significantly better supposed to even mean? your using 2 adverbs that mean 2 different things in front of the word "better".

 

many of us are ripping this whole theory to shreds and then you continue to add horrible narratives like 

"he is more hyped up in home games"

"TO SOME DEGREE sure the weather But.." Degree? Weather?

"the majority of his bad games are at home as well"  I mean do you really believe this? Did you watch the NE playoff game or any of the home games last year?

Other then the Steelers we dominated home games last year offensively

 

Seriously? is this whole thing just a well-hidden troll job or are you not reading anything you're writing down? and not reading all of our replies. 

 

You're blowing away one bad narrative after another.. Can't teach accuracy... can't play in loud stadiums... I mean seriously? what is this? 

[strive_for_five_guy]

13 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

Using starting temp and wind from PFR (precipitation going from memory). I'll note that they had the "wind game" against Patriots in 2021 listed at 19 MPH, and it was obviously significantly windier than that. By my count there were either 4 or 5 games in 2021 that had worse weather than the worst game in 2020. Seahawks in 2020 might've  been the nicest ever November home game. 

 

 

How dare you bring additional data points into this discussion…

[Big Turk]

7 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

I am requoting your original thread for 2 reasons. 1. take the first year out... does not if 2 numbers compare that first year the rest does not.

 

Second... this is the biggest one... your TITLE! 

 

"Allen still is fairly significantly better on the Road than at Home. Splits don't lie. Thoughts as to why."  what the heck is fairly significantly better supposed to even mean? your using 2 adverbs that mean 2 different things in front of the word "better".

 

many of us are ripping this whole theory to shreds and then you continue to add horrible narratives like 

"he is more hyped up in home games"

"TO SOME DEGREE sure the weather But.." Degree? Weather?

"the majority of his bad games are at home as well"  I mean do you really believe this? Did you watch the NE playoff game or any of the home games last year?

Other then the Steelers we dominated home games last year offensively

 

Seriously? is this whole thing just a well-hidden troll job or are you not reading anything you're writing down? and not reading all of our replies. 

 

You're blowing away one bad narrative after another.. Can't teach accuracy... can't play in loud stadiums... I mean seriously? what is this? 

 

Uh, the Colts game?

[Rochesterfan]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

I still think it has to do with Allen becoming too hyped at home, even though he plays music to calm himself down, etc...

 

My basis for thinking this is because in 2020 when there were no fans, the splits were nearly identical, home and away, although he was still slightly better on the road.  However, once the fans came back, again he was significantly better on the road, just as he was the prior year...which is pretty clear evidence that he either tries to do too much at home, is too pumped up to try and wow the home fans or there is something else going on. His rookie year he was pretty much even...mostly bad stat wise in both places.

 

2019 Split

 

2020 Split(no fans)

 

2021 Split(fans again)

 

Career

 

Don't get me wrong, I love the fact he lives for going into other teams houses, taking their lunch money and then laughing in their faces as they cry for Mommy, but it would be nice to see him get a little closer to his road performances at home on balance...

 

 

 

Also...the "more" primetime the game, the better he plays...improving each timeslot from early to afternoon to night.  

 

Maybe do a touch of research on this - my god - Josh has been his best in high pressure games both at home and on the road.  The Hype thing is stupid!

 

 

Lets do a quick review - last year there were multiple home games like: NE - 27 mph winds (gusts to 50) and rain,  Indy 20 mph wind and rain,  Houston 35-40 mph gusts and rain.  There were additional days with weather just as bad - rain/wind, combinations that made passing difficult.

 

2020 - No fans, but look at the beautiful weather.  The worst home game in 2020 was NE on 11/1 the temp was 41.  The wind peaked at 17 mph and it was lite rain on and off.  That was the worst weather the Bills played in at home.  The Denver game in Denver had the worst wind at 24 mph on a beautiful sunny and 47 degree December afternoon.  There was not another game - home or away that hit 20 mph winds and the NE and KC home games were the only 2 with precipitation.  The weather for the 2020 season was incredible and is the biggest thing that accounts for why his splits were similar.

 

The Home versus Away weather last year was a horrific split with weather being colder, windier, and wetter at home by a significant margin.  The 2019 season most home games were earlier in the season - the Nov and December games against Denver and Baltimore both had 20 mph winds and the Baltimore game said gusts to 40 - so they were easily as bad or worse than any game in 2020.  Josh also missed out on the last home game against the Jets as everything was clinched.

 

So if you are serious in asking about the split - look to the weather.  Don’t try to pawn off the difference as some type of hype related crap - because the higher the pressure - the better he has played both at home and on the road.

 

You want to fix the splits - suggest the new stadium is a true covered stadium where the weather is constant and no rain or wind and he will put up huge home numbers year after year.

 

 

45 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

 

So did the stadium stop being windy in 2020?  That's the whole point...he played an entire year with no fans WITH THE SAME WEATHER CONDITIONS as the year before and year after but didn't have the statistical dropoff he had the year before and year after with fans there.  Why are you so willing to ignore that??

 

Go and look at the weather - do the work if you are going to make stupid claims.  
 

Yes the weather in 2020 was significantly better in Buffalo compared to the year before and after.  It is a huge factor.

 

 

Do the work to prove your point rather than making stuff up.

 

 

 

[hemma]

I guess the only solution is to alternate Keenum and Barkley for home games for the regular season.

 

that’ll teach him to suck so bad.  Bust.

 

[John from Riverside]

I dont know but I would think we would rather have him be better on the road then at home?

 

because

 

There are probably a LOT of players on this team that are better at home to take up the slack

[PrimeTime101]

15 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Uh, the Colts game?

Did you watch football last year? Colts was an away game. This is all you have to say after everything I just threw at you?? 

[Orlando Tim]

Can we compare his stats vs his opponents in each game. He clearly had a bad game against the Pats* last year but was far better than Jones. I bet his opponents numbers were closer on the road than at home

[Big Turk]

4 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

Did you watch football last year? Colts was an away game. This is all you have to say after everything I just threw at you?? 

 

I think the more pertinent question is, did YOU watch football last year?  It was clearly a home game.

 

 

Edited May 17, 2022 by Big Turk

[PrimeTime101]

1 minute ago, Big Turk said:

 

I think the more pertinent question is, did YOU watch football last year?  It was clearly a home game.

your right I read the schedule wrong... you got 1 thing right.. congrats

and thats 2 home games josh played bad... what about the other home games Josh played great? Did Josh have any bad games away? Im sure he did.. HORRIBLE NARRATIVE! 

[Aussie Joe]

Hey Turk… do you know if Cynthia Frelund factors this into her models when running her simulations on the Bills season?

[PrimeTime101]

Just now, Aussie Joe said:

Hey Turk… do you know if Cynthia Frelund factors this into her models when running her simulations on the Bills season?

HAHAHA THANK YOU! i needed this!

[Charles Romes]

 Crazy wind tunnels at the Ralph. Won’t have this problem with the Tottenham half-roof. 

[julian]

He’s just beginning to scratch the surface of his potential, considering where he started as a rookie, he’s on the upward trajectory.

 

 He’s a unique case study who’s story and career has many more moments, turns and statistics to be obtained before we can make any concrete conclusions.

 

 That being said, 17 seems to relish leading his team into enemy territory, it’s a great sign.

[TBBills]

2 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

Not wins-losses I am talking about...stats are significantly better on the road. 5% higher completion percentage in his career, passer rating 9 points higher, more TDs, fewer INTs, etc.

What was the weather difference? Need more information...

[FilthyBeast]

I'm not sure this isolated to JA17.  As a whole this team seems to play better football on the road and really struggles at home at times.

 

This is why I really need to see consistent football through a 17 game regular season this year before I start booking tickets for a SB next Feb and it does start with JA17 and McDermott having this team ready week in and week out so there are no more Steelers and Jaguars type of outings in 2022.

[Magox]

It could be a confluence of factors such as too much juju, weather, etc.  One of the beautiful things about Josh is that he just keeps getting better and I don't see why that trend won't continue.  I expect the variances in his performance to flatten out this year between the road and home games. 

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

Blame it on the rain...

 

[Big Blitz]

Maybe we should start looking at it like "dam right he's better on the road because he goes into a lethal zero f..s given mode."

 

[TheBrownBear]

2 hours ago, dneveu said:

 

I mean he legit pitched a perfect game at home against NE.  More TDs than incompletions.  

Yeah. Color me NOT WORRIED.  Just played one of the greatest games of all time, at home, against hated rival, in front of a packed and rabid fanbase, in the playoffs, against the GOAT coach, in 0 degree weather.  

 

So, he had better stats on the road than at home last year in a season where Buffalo had exceptionally bad weather on numerous game days.  Case seems open and shut to me.

[pi2000]

Highmark Stadium has the largest crown of any field in the NFL.   The closer you get to the sidelines, the more "downhill" you are from the center of the field.    This, combined with the swirling wind, make it the most difficult field in the NFL to throw the ball accurately.  

Edited May 17, 2022 by pi2000

[Ethan in Cleveland]

I don’t see any difference in play except the weather. He has has bad home games like Pittsburgh last year and bad road games like Jacksonville.  But in both those instances the entire team was unprepared to play. 

Josh is the least of my worries at home or on the road. 

He was virtually unstoppable in the second coldest game in franchise history.  Temperature is not the issue.  It was dry and not windy and by then the Bills had a reasonably reliable run game. 

Bad weather affects both QBs. Bills on paper should be better running the ball. Let's hope for better weather and better run blocking 

 

[Big Turk]

1 minute ago, TheBrownBear said:

Yeah. Color me NOT WORRIED.  Just played one of the greatest games of all time, at home, against hated rival, in front of a packed and rabid fanbase, in the playoffs, against the GOAT coach, in 0 degree weather.  

 

So, he had better stats on the road than at home last year in a season where Buffalo had exceptionally bad weather on numerous game days.  Case seems open and shut to me.

 

I didn't say I was worried...more curious as to the why behind it, and No, I don't believe it can be 100% explained by the weather as some seem so eager to do.

[Dablitzkrieg]