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Your Bills draft assumptions


BigAl2526

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I'm not one to make a lot of big, bold predictions for the draft, and while I follow the various mock drafts, I almost never create a mock myself.  However, I do have some thoughts about how the Bills will handle this draft.  They are:  1. The Bills are not likely to move up far in this draft.  It simply costs too much unless they are able to package #25 with player on their roster, and those kinds of trades are very rare.  2.  Beane looks for player traits over need in the draft, but doesn't ignore need altogether.  The Bills have only one of what I would call an acute need - cornerback.  3.  There is likely to be a relative lack of high impact elite players left in the first round when the Bills pick.  Tyler Linderbaum may be around, but his position limits the level of his impact, and his size makes him a bit of a question mark for any team not running a pure zone blocking system.   Breece Hall certainly qualifies as a potential high impact player, but there is that axiom about not picking a running back in round one.  I don't rule out Hall as the Bills' pick, but it's not the only possibility.  On defense, besides cornerbacks, there are a handful of players that might be considered a reasonable value at that point.  The only elite talent who might fall could be Devonte Wyatt. Whether Buffalo would consider Wyatt would depend on whatever due diligence they do with respect his alleged off field activities. Some other names who may be available are Dean, Karlaftis, Hill and Ojabo.  There are reasons to pass on any of them.  On offense, outside of Breece Hall, maybe Dotson will be available, Zion Johnson and/or Kenyon Green, Trey McBride (if the Bills think he's a first round value) and various QBs.   I don't think anybody believes Buffalo is going to pick a QB.  Among CBs, the first two on most pundit's boards will be gone.  The next group varies on its members depending on who is doing the evaluating.  Trent McDuffie has the production and experience, but faces questions about size and arm length.  Some like Booth.  Some like Gordon. some like Elam.  

 

Putting all that together, and stopping short of a prediction.  Here are the possible outcomes for the Bills from most likely to least likely:

1.  Buffalo stays at #25 and drafts a cornerback.  take your pick (other than Sauce Garner and Derek Stingley who aren't reasonable)

2.  Buffalo stays at #25 and drafts Breece Hall.

3.  Trade down either to the bottom of the first or the top 3rd of the second round.  Buffalo could target a RB or CB after the trade down too.

4.  Buffalo stays at #25 and drafts an interior offensive lineman.

5.  Buffalo trades up.  I couldn't guess the actual trade, but I think #15 -#20 might be a reasonable target range.

6.  Devonte Wyatt drops and Buffalo decides his off field issue is not a deal breaker.

 

I know we've torn apart the upcoming draft about every possible way, but I haven't seen it approached the exact way.  So what are your assumptions and what doo you think are the possible outcomes of round one for Buffalo. 

 

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18 minutes ago, BigAl2526 said:

I'm not one to make a lot of big, bold predictions for the draft, and while I follow the various mock drafts, I almost never create a mock myself.  However, I do have some thoughts about how the Bills will handle this draft.  They are:  1. The Bills are not likely to move up far in this draft.  It simply costs too much unless they are able to package #25 with player on their roster, and those kinds of trades are very rare.  2.  Beane looks for player traits over need in the draft, but doesn't ignore need altogether.  The Bills have only one of what I would call an acute need - cornerback.  3.  There is likely to be a relative lack of high impact elite players left in the first round when the Bills pick.  Tyler Linderbaum may be around, but his position limits the level of his impact, and his size makes him a bit of a question mark for any team not running a pure zone blocking system.   Breece Hall certainly qualifies as a potential high impact player, but there is that axiom about not picking a running back in round one.  I don't rule out Hall as the Bills' pick, but it's not the only possibility.  On defense, besides cornerbacks, there are a handful of players that might be considered a reasonable value at that point.  The only elite talent who might fall could be Devonte Wyatt. Whether Buffalo would consider Wyatt would depend on whatever due diligence they do with respect his alleged off field activities. Some other names who may be available are Dean, Karlaftis, Hill and Ojabo.  There are reasons to pass on any of them.  On offense, outside of Breece Hall, maybe Dotson will be available, Zion Johnson and/or Kenyon Green, Trey McBride (if the Bills think he's a first round value) and various QBs.   I don't think anybody believes Buffalo is going to pick a QB.  Among CBs, the first two on most pundit's boards will be gone.  The next group varies on its members depending on who is doing the evaluating.  Trent McDuffie has the production and experience, but faces questions about size and arm length.  Some like Booth.  Some like Gordon. some like Elam.  

 

Putting all that together, and stopping short of a prediction.  Here are the possible outcomes for the Bills from most likely to least likely:

1.  Buffalo stays at #25 and drafts a cornerback.  take your pick (other than Sauce Garner and Derek Stingley who aren't reasonable)

2.  Buffalo stays at #25 and drafts Breece Hall.

3.  Trade down either to the bottom of the first or the top 3rd of the second round.  Buffalo could target a RB or CB after the trade down too.

4.  Buffalo stays at #25 and drafts an interior offensive lineman.

5.  Buffalo trades up.  I couldn't guess the actual trade, but I think #15 -#20 might be a reasonable target range.

6.  Devonte Wyatt drops and Buffalo decides his off field issue is not a deal breaker.

 

I know we've torn apart the upcoming draft about every possible way, but I haven't seen it approached the exact way.  So what are your assumptions and what doo you think are the possible outcomes of round one for Buffalo. 

 

1.  I think the odds of this happening are pretty solid.

2.  Love Breece Hall but I think this would be unlikely.

3.  Starting to think that a trade DOWN might be difficult UNLESS a team wants a quarterback at 25.  Every GM has to know that the draft board is relatively flat with respect to "equal" talent in the 20-40 pick range.

4.  I think that if Linderbaum (one of the 15 or so true first round-graded prospects) slips to 25, he could be the pick (Yes, I know 95% here disagree).  Otherwise, I don't think an OG would be picked here. 

5.  I'd love to be a fly on the wall in the war room to find out if Beane thinks a particular player is worth trading into the 15-20 range for.  This will be interesting.

6.  Wyatt could slip, yes.  We will see.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Yantha said:

1.  I think the odds of this happening are pretty solid.

2.  Love Breece Hall but I think this would be unlikely.

3.  Starting to think that a trade DOWN might be difficult UNLESS a team wants a quarterback at 25.  Every GM has to know that the draft board is relatively flat with respect to "equal" talent in the 20-40 pick range.

4.  I think that if Linderbaum (one of the 15 or so true first round-graded prospects) slips to 25, he could be the pick (Yes, I know 95% here disagree).  Otherwise, I don't think an OG would be picked here. 

5.  I'd love to be a fly on the wall in the war room to find out if Beane thinks a particular player is worth trading into the 15-20 range for.  This will be interesting.

6.  Wyatt could slip, yes.  We will see.

 

 

Any thoughts on Edmunds though? [LOL-sry had to hahaha]

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He drafts 1 CB within the first two rounds (maybe doubles up over the span of the entire draft), 1 WR with an emphasis on speed within the first 3 rounds (also maybe doubles up by the end), a RB that provides pass catching ability and speed somewhere between rounds 2-4, and a God of Punting for good measure 😛

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3 hours ago, BigAl2526 said:

I'm not one to make a lot of big, bold predictions for the draft, and while I follow the various mock drafts, I almost never create a mock myself.  However, I do have some thoughts about how the Bills will handle this draft.  They are:  1. The Bills are not likely to move up far in this draft.  It simply costs too much unless they are able to package #25 with player on their roster, and those kinds of trades are very rare.  2.  Beane looks for player traits over need in the draft, but doesn't ignore need altogether.  The Bills have only one of what I would call an acute need - cornerback.  3.  There is likely to be a relative lack of high impact elite players left in the first round when the Bills pick.  Tyler Linderbaum may be around, but his position limits the level of his impact, and his size makes him a bit of a question mark for any team not running a pure zone blocking system.   Breece Hall certainly qualifies as a potential high impact player, but there is that axiom about not picking a running back in round one.  I don't rule out Hall as the Bills' pick, but it's not the only possibility.  On defense, besides cornerbacks, there are a handful of players that might be considered a reasonable value at that point.  The only elite talent who might fall could be Devonte Wyatt. Whether Buffalo would consider Wyatt would depend on whatever due diligence they do with respect his alleged off field activities. Some other names who may be available are Dean, Karlaftis, Hill and Ojabo.  There are reasons to pass on any of them.  On offense, outside of Breece Hall, maybe Dotson will be available, Zion Johnson and/or Kenyon Green, Trey McBride (if the Bills think he's a first round value) and various QBs.   I don't think anybody believes Buffalo is going to pick a QB.  Among CBs, the first two on most pundit's boards will be gone.  The next group varies on its members depending on who is doing the evaluating.  Trent McDuffie has the production and experience, but faces questions about size and arm length.  Some like Booth.  Some like Gordon. some like Elam.  

 

Putting all that together, and stopping short of a prediction.  Here are the possible outcomes for the Bills from most likely to least likely:

1.  Buffalo stays at #25 and drafts a cornerback.  take your pick (other than Sauce Garner and Derek Stingley who aren't reasonable)

2.  Buffalo stays at #25 and drafts Breece Hall.

3.  Trade down either to the bottom of the first or the top 3rd of the second round.  Buffalo could target a RB or CB after the trade down too.

4.  Buffalo stays at #25 and drafts an interior offensive lineman.

5.  Buffalo trades up.  I couldn't guess the actual trade, but I think #15 -#20 might be a reasonable target range.

6.  Devonte Wyatt drops and Buffalo decides his off field issue is not a deal breaker.

 

I know we've torn apart the upcoming draft about every possible way, but I haven't seen it approached the exact way.  So what are your assumptions and what doo you think are the possible outcomes of round one for Buffalo. 

 

I like your thoughts about the Bills going DL still, I think the same….

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I have absolutely no idea what the Bills are going to do this year.  I also have no idea what any other teams are going to do.  This is the most unpredictable draft that I can remember.  While CB is most likely for the Bills, any of CB, Safety, RB, WR or LB could be the pick, depending on a) how the board falls, and b) the Bills' future plans with current players such as Poyer, Edmunds, and Singletary.

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I realize it would take a lot of good luck, but if Beane is the draft god many here believe he is, he will take the risks and trade down out of the 1st and package his later picks to swing a trade for two early Round 2 picks. He can solve two weaknesses with one selection by drafting Daxton Hill early in the 2nd. He could start at CB while Tre gets back to speed. He could later on in the year get time with Hyde to see how he pairs up with Hyde as a possible replacement of Poyer. If he doesn't work out with him due to his weaknesses  at safety, he can stay at CB in the future. With our 2nd early pick we draft Breece Hall ,who can block, catch and run. We upgrade the defense and offense significantly in round two. A dual threat RB taking the pressure off the need for an early WR replacement pick. He can line up in both pass and running plays without signaling to the opposing defense what our designed plays are, either pass or run.

Ideally a trade with the Lions, or even Seattle for early 2nd round picks, or a wizard combination of  a trade down along with trading up from Beane with our later picks (and or players) to get two early 2nd round picks. We would basically be set for the draft after two early 2nd round picks. Going for our other real need with a remaining round 6 pick for a punter.

 

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4 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

TBD community has literally never been wrong about a draft pick. Beane should just do what we say

 

I wanted them to take Rosen in 2018 draft. So it would be wise if Beane didn't listen to an "expert" like me. If I had to guess I still think they go corner in Rd 1.

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If I had to make a prediction, I think the Bills go O-Line (Guard) or Safety in Round 1.

 

Almost everyone wants a cornerback on the first day.  Me too. 

But unfortunately, the best value is most likely going to be somewhere else when we pick.

  • The two top guys in this draft (Derek Stingley and Sauce Gardner) will be long gone by Pick #25.  I think both guys are likely Top 10, and trading up more than a couple picks is going to be way too expensive.  No way Beane flips a future 1st Rounder just to move up for a CB. 
  • I wouldn't be surprised if Trent McDuffie also goes Top 15, which would also put him out of reach.  Andrew Booth Jr. depends on the medical red flags.  If other teams fail him for the hernia issues, it's very likely we will too.
  • After those top four guys, the value drops and we are looking mostly at Day 2 guys (Kaiir Elam, Roger McCreary and Kyler Gordon).  Maybe we reach for position, but that doesn't seem like Beane either.

 

I keep hearing about Breece Hall being connected to the Bills.  That should be the main reason to reject that idea, because this organization does not let information like that slip.  It's a smokescreen, just like Travis Etienne last year.  There aren't any running backs worth a 1st Round Pick this year.  Same thing with tight ends.

 

The top wide receivers (Garrett Wilson, Jameson Williams, Drake London, Chris Olave) are probably gone at #25.  I can't see Treylon Burks being the style of WR we are looking for.  We don't really need another Edge Rusher, Defensive Tackle or Offensive Tackle. 

 

The top linebackers (Devin Lloyd, Nakobi Dean) are both outside guys.  So even if we are looking for a replacement for Tremaine Edmunds, neither of those guys really fit the mold.

 

I've done many mock drafts, which are surprisingly accurate when it comes to predicting the positions/players that will be available.  The value picks that keep coming up (which I could see being realistic for us) are guards Kenyon Green or Zion Johnson, or safety Daxton Hill.  All of those guys are considered solid 1st Round prospects, and all would fit future needs.

Don't forget that Beane said "protecting Josh Allen" was his top priority this offseason.  He only attacked the O-Line with one-year deals, which means that position will be a need again next year.  

On the safety side, I think we are (unfortunately) watching Jordan Poyer's last season in Buffalo.  We can't pay everyone, and I think he's the odd man out.

 

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He'll continue using the rules he's used and committed to. That's the most likely thing we'll see.

 

He'll trade up, but not trade away picks in the first four or five rounds.

 

He'll go BPA at positions of need (which will be a bit wider than just the three obvious ones, including things like safety, TE, etc., particularly a bit later)

 

Unless someone like Jordan Davis falls a long way, he'll go WR, CB or IOL with the first pick. And he'll cover all of those within ... oh, maybe the first five picks, I'm saying.

 

 

 

...

 

Oh, and I'm guessing punter in the last couple of rounds

 

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6 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

He'll continue using the rules he's used and committed to. That's the most likely thing we'll see.

 

He'll trade up, but not trade away picks in the first four or five rounds.

 

He'll go BPA at positions of need (which will be a bit wider than just the three obvious ones, including things like safety, TE, etc., particularly a bit later)

 

Unless someone like Jordan Davis falls a long way, he'll go WR, CB or IOL with the first pick. And he'll cover all of those within ... oh, maybe the first five picks, I'm saying.

 

 

 

...

 

Oh, and I'm guessing punter in the last couple of rounds

 

This is a good take, especially your 3rd sentence. Given their cap constraints going forward, they will need to draft a number of positions where guys can take a year (or two) to develop. 

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Bills draft a punter in the sixth round, just like we did Tyler Bass. I’m looking at Jordan Stout who impressed at the Senior Bowl

Bills don’t like a WR until the 3rd or 4th round, just like we waited on Gabriel Davis

Bills draft a CB round one, I don’t believe the Breece Hall hype at 25. I'm starting to think it's Kyler Gordon, Booth is going to fall because of medicals

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6 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

He drafts 1 CB within the first two rounds (maybe doubles up over the span of the entire draft), 1 WR with an emphasis on speed within the first 3 rounds (also maybe doubles up by the end), a RB that provides pass catching ability and speed somewhere between rounds 2-4, and a God of Punting for good measure 😛

I totally agree with this. The punter from Penn State somewhere late in the draft. Tariq Woolen and Joshua Williams in rds 2/4. TE in rd 3

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1) The Bills will draft 2 DBs in the first 4 picks.

2) The Bills will make a trade to acquire an extra 4th-6th round pick for 2023 Draft

3) The Bills will take a WR in Round 3 or 4.

4)  My biggest stretch of an assumption is that the Bills either trade back into the late 1st or early 2nd and take their corner they've targeted.  I think its either Gordon or an Alabama corner (NFL ready and scheme friendly). 

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While Beane keeps things close to the vest, I believe that he is a straight shooter. That is, I do not believe that he puts up "smoke screens". For example, last year the team was supposedly interested in both N. Harris and Entienne. Both were drafted well before the Bills' pick at 30. So it could very well be that Beane/McD were interested in those guys but did not want to move up to get them and may have been more interested in Rousseau even if either was still there. When Beane says that he believes in going the BPA route, I believe him.

 

I actually think "where there is smoke, there is fire". This year they have been linked to Hall. Given their reported interests in the same position last season and their lack of significant movement (Duke is not a significant pickup), it could very well be true. Now, that isn't to say that they wouldn't draft a different player at a different position at 25 over Hall, just that I have a feeling that Beane and McD would not lose any sleep over a selection of Hall at 25. Also, in the last couple of drafts the Bills have been linked to physical in-the-box safeties. I suspect that is also true, and McD would love to have such a player in his defense, especially with Poyer's future with the team in question. So, if Hamilton (for example) starts to slide, I could see the Bills making a move (if not cost prohibitive) to get him.

 

This team has the strongest roster since the glory years -- and would be best served to maximize early picks rather than to stock up on late round picks who would have little-to-no chance of making the roster. With the market for trading down reportedly weak this year, I just don't see the Bills being in the position to trade out of the 1st to acquire multiple 2nd/3rd round picks. The converse is that a weak market for trading down, likely means a strong market for trading up -- so I would not be surprised to see a slight move up (inside, say, the top 20) or a package of late-round picks to move up from the 3rd to the 2nd or 4th to the 3rd.

 

I guess my order of likelihood would  be:

 

1. Stay put at 25 and draft BPA (likely CB/S, WR, OL, or RB)

 

2. If a player they thought would go in the top 10 starts to slide down to, say, 15 trade up to get him

 

3. Like I said above, I think it will be hard to find a partner with which to trade down. But... A team picking early in the 2nd round and wants to move back into the 1st to secure a 5th year option, may be tempted to trade up with the Bills. The would then probably Bills pick up the other team's early 3rd rounder in  the trade. That gives the Bills two 2nd rounders and two 3rd rounders to address the needs referenced above. They can still use late-round picks to move up higher in each of those rounds if they need to.

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23 minutes ago, 2003Contenders said:

While Beane keeps things close to the vest, I believe that he is a straight shooter. That is, I do not believe that he puts up "smoke screens". For example, last year the team was supposedly interested in both N. Harris and Entienne. Both were drafted well before the Bills' pick at 30. So it could very well be that Beane/McD were interested in those guys but did not want to move up to get them and may have been more interested in Rousseau even if either was still there. When Beane says that he believes in going the BPA route, I believe him.

 

 

I believe Beane said he had a first round grade on Rousseau last year and usually only has like 20ish first round grades. I highly doubt he had Najee or Etienne ranked higher than Rousseau, they could have been options if Rousseau was gone though. 

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I feel the Bills will either take a stud LB or a RB with their first pick & stay at 25 unless of course the guys they want are both gone at that pick then they could trade back into for extra picks if they can get into the top of the second & Beane feels he can still get his guy just ut side of the 1st round .

 

But that 5th year option is always a nice thing to have in your back pocket I'm getting so stoked can't wait to see who we get ...

 

 

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1 hour ago, T master said:

I feel the Bills will either take a stud LB or a RB with their first pick & stay at 25 unless of course the guys they want are both gone at that pick then they could trade back into for extra picks if they can get into the top of the second & Beane feels he can still get his guy just ut side of the 1st round .

 

But that 5th year option is always a nice thing to have in your back pocket I'm getting so stoked can't wait to see who we get ...

 

 

LB (the ones who don’t rush the QB) and RB are the 2 positions where the 5th year option is probably least valuable to the team when you consider how de-valued those positions have become.  The LB’s gotta be Fred Warner good not Tremaine good to justify the 5th year option price tag.  And even more so for a RB.  Dude’s gotta be pre-injury McCaffrey special for the economics to work to take a RB in the 1st round.  

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They won’t draft a corner real high. They’re gonna bank on Tre being just fine and they remain pretty high on Jackson, just like they did with Wallace for the last four years. They probably do draft one but not until the third or fourth round. 
 

They like their WR group and unless one of the top WR names falls to them somehow, I don’t think they’re gonna go WR in the first. They just extended Diggs, Davis is on the up and up, Crowder is a solid slot replacement over Beasley and then McKenzie rounds out the top four. They’re gonna give plenty of chances to Marquez Stevenson and Isaiah Hodgins to win a spot. Maybe they take one late but yeah, unless one of the top receiver prospects falls to them I don’t think that’s happening. 
 

I’d advise reading Joe B’s most recent draft write up on The Athletic. He makes the case that they might very well move around in an attempt to land Norte Dame safety Kyle Hamilton. This kid checks all the boxes they like, he’s versatile, he has elite size, has a knack for big plays, he’s played in a lot of college games and he’s a leader. McBeane value the crap out of those traits. Plus, they’ve been looking for a movable piece on their defense for a while. They were rumored to be high on Kyle Dugger a couple years back, another versatile defender. Jordan Poyer is in the final year of his deal and between him and Hyde, it was Hyde who got the extension and so far, Beane has given no indication they plan on extending Poyer. I’m sure they’d like to but as he’s said, they can’t pay everyone. Plus, Poyer (and Hyde for that matter) will be 32 or 33 heading into next season. McDermott emphasizes safety play in his defense so Hamilton makes a ton of sense if they can pull off the right trades to get him. If they can’t, Joe B named Georgia’s Lewis Cine as a possibility at 25.

 

If none of those scenarios pan out, I can totally see them going with Breece Hall at 25. He gives them a dimension they currently don’t have in the run game. Plus, this is Singletary’s final year on his rookie deal. Unless Zack Moss suddenly becomes a stud, their run game beyond Singletary isn’t great. And it’s rumored the friction between McDermott and Daboll last season was about Sean being irritated with Daboll calling too many designed QB runs. Obviously Josh is gonna scramble, that’s part of his game. But it seems clear the head coach would prefer far fewer designed runs. Adding a player like Hall allows them to lean on Josh a lot less in the run game. Hall is a three down back who can catch it and he looks like a really good fit for the zone blocking scheme they’re likely to run this season. 
 

They’re also gonna try to walk outta there with one of the top tight ends. I do believe they’ll extend Knox and let Howard walk after this season so long as they add one of the better ones from this draft. I think it’s the McBride kid they like a lot, I think they’ve met with him the most of any of the TE prospects. 
 

I also don’t think this is the year to stand pat and let the board fall to them. Go wheel and deal and move around and walk out with like four or five guys out of the top 100-150 players as opposed to seven picks from the whole field of 255 or however many it is this year. Their roster is pretty stacked so guys picked in the 6th and 7th rounds don’t have the best shot to make the team. 

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