In defense of Josh 3 pix and low qbr

[First Round Bust]

from the BN - Jim Kubiak  - football savant - weekly qb analysis

 

here is the conclusion portion of the article...only the first pick was on Josh - says pick #2 was on Beasley breaking-off his route incorrectly - #3 was the spy LB timing his leap perfectly

says daboll running Josh is like the wildcat plus one extra blocker and Bills pin the edge and pull schemes worked very well esp in RZ

 

The Bills rushed the football for 233 yards and dominated the time of possession an astounding 36:07 to 23:53 for the Falcons. It was a great game plan by Daboll to utilize Allen with quarterback crack sweeps and quarterback counter concepts. The Falcons’ defense was daring the Bills to run the football and were in position to take away the passing game receiver bubbles and RPOs.

The Bills’ ability to change personnel and block down on defensive linemen while pulling around the perimeter was very impressive and resulted in much needed relief for Allen, who had suffered a couple of bad-luck interceptions and three dropped passes.

It was a cool, calm and physical approach by the Buffalo offensive line, Singletary, Allen and Moss to methodically pound the football and wear down the Falcons defensively.

This was also a great example of how a quarterback’s statistics can be misleading. Allen really made only one poor decision in the game, his first interception. Beyond that, he was smart with the football.

His performance grade of 92.15% is an "A" in a playoff-clinching moment, even if his quarterback rating of 17.0 was the worst mark in his career. The video review revealed a tough and gritty performance from a franchise quarterback who values winning above all else, because in the end that is all that matters.

 

So Mark Sanchez can officially go effe himself over his criticality of Josh's play

 

Edited January 4, 2022 by First Round Bust

[jletha]

It wasnt his best day by any stretch but anyone who watched knows we won because of Josh and not despite. When a QB posts a rating of 17 and 3 ints thats not usually the case.

 

btw, while his QB Rating was 17, his QBR (the ESPN stat, which encompasses running and situation) was 11th overall for the week amongst all QBs. Which feels more correct.

Edited January 4, 2022 by jletha

[JESSEFEFFER]

I have not watched the Fox broadcast yet.  I thought Sanchez might offer some insight into Josh's playing style because of their association through the QB summit so all the complaints about his commentary surprised me some.  When Josh did the podcast interview with Mark, which was very good, Sanchez seemed genuinely concerned with the hits Josh allows himself to take and wanting him to play with more discretion which is a concern many Bills fans share.

 

The debate we had about NFL passer rating vs. ESPN's Total QBR was starkly contrasted in this game.  Passer rating was 17 and QBR was a respectable 61.  Seems like Kubiak agrees with the latter.

6 minutes ago, jletha said:

It wasnt his best day by any stretch but anyone who watched knows we won because of Josh and not despite. When a QB posts a rating of 17 and 3 ints thats not usually the case.

 

btw, while his QB Rating was 17, his QBR (the ESPN stat, which encompasses running and situation) was 11th overall for the week amongst all QBs. Which feels more correct.

 

You beat me to it while I was creating my post.  QBR is a mystery but I like it when it passes my eye test.

[billsfan1959]

29 minutes ago, First Round Bust said:

So Mark Sanchez can officially go effe himself over his criticality of Josh's play

 

Oh, Mark....

 

[Utah John]

On the second INT, Beasley was jammed by a defensive player 9 or 10 yards beyond the LOS.  He didn't break the route off, he was blocked illegally.  When Josh released the ball it still looked like Beasley was going to get into the hole in the defense the play was designed to attack. What the announcers just couldn't bring themselves to say is that the defense committed illegal contact more than 5 yards downfield.

 

The first INT was an egregious mistake by Josh.  Not mentioned during the broadcast was that this was Josh's second INT in the red zone in his entire career.  He didn't have any in the previous three years, and he has two this year.

[First Round Bust]

8 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Oh, Mark....

 

these ex-jocks got to talk for 3 hours have to find things to say, which makes the great analysts like Madden, Ache-man ?  Romo ? the Manning bros all that much greater given the ability to entertain a lot of intelligent, emotional, demanding,football fans

2 minutes ago, Utah John said:

On the second INT, Beasley was jammed by a defensive player 9 or 10 yards beyond the LOS.  He didn't break the route off, he was blocked illegally.  When Josh released the ball it still looked like Beasley was going to get into the hole in the defense the play was designed to attack. What the announcers just couldn't bring themselves to say is that the defense committed illegal contact more than 5 yards downfield.

 

The first INT was an egregious mistake by Josh.  Not mentioned during the broadcast was that this was Josh's second INT in the red zone in his entire career.  He didn't have any in the previous three years, and he has two this year.

our receivers were too close together on that play - so something went fundamentally wrong

you are right on about the contact on Beasley, should that have been a penalty - defensive holding - contact beyond 5 yards

 

Edited January 4, 2022 by First Round Bust

[WotAGuy]

I read that article today and thought it was overly generous to Josh. I believe Josh would say the same thing about it. 
 

Every QB has their days - the Bills beat Green Bay when Rodgers had some picks, but Josh was all over the place Sunday. Hopefully he’ll go back to taking those check downs and play it a little safer in the playoffs. Cannot afford TOs in the playoffs. 

Edited January 4, 2022 by WotAGuy

[Trogdor]

4 minutes ago, WotAGuy said:

I read that article today and thought it was overly generous to Josh. I believe Josh would say the same thing about it. 
 

Every QB has their days - the Bills best Green Bay when Rodgers had some picks, but Josh was all over the place Sunday. Hopefully he’ll go back to taking those check downs and play it a little safer in the playoffs. Cannot afford TOs in the playoffs. 

This exactly, why does he need defending? Sometimes players just make bad plays, but that doesn't mean they are always bad. That second pick is a questionable throw either way they either ends with Beasley getting laid out, picked, or broken up. 

 

[JerseyBills]

The red zone pick was awful and really the only throw Id criticize but that throw could have cost us the gm. There was 2 Bills and 3 or 4 Falcons players in the area. Gotta throw that away everytime. 

 

I called this a signature win because the division implications but because of our halftime adjustments.  Even with Allen struggling passing , we still found a way on the ground to impose our will and dominate ATL 15-0 in the second half.

Motor and the OL really look like their starting to take their games to another level at the perfect time!

 

[BuffaloBillies]

55 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Oh, Mark....

 

 

Is that Stevenson?

[Einstein]

I dont blame Allen for a single one of his INT's.

 

INT 1 - Tipped.

INT 2 - WR Interfered with

INT 3- Tipped.

[teef]

he had a bad throwing day.  it's happen to all qbs, even the great.  that being said, josh still carried the team to a win.  if he doesn't beat you one way, he'll beat you another.  this is just an opportunity for certain posters to take one bad game, and harp on it over and over and over.  it was a win.

[John from Riverside]

Three interceptions in a row you can’t put lipstick on that pig having said that I am ride or die with Josh

[Success]

2 tips and a PI on Beasley that wasn't called.

 

 

[Bangarang]

I don’t feel the need to constantly sugar coat things or try to massage Josh’s ego. Bad games are inevitably going to happen and there are going to be times where he doesn’t play well.

 

Sunday was one of those days. He tried forcing some throws and they didn’t work. That’s what happens when you have a guy with his arm and mentality. It’s great when it works but sucks when it doesn’t. It’s going to work a lot more than it doesn’t. 

[eball]

Josh doesn't need anyone "defending" his play.  He made one really bad decision on Sunday and thankfully the 45 or so other decisions he made were pretty good and we won the football game easily.

[oldmanfan]

Josh is our guy and will be the guy for a long time.  But he did not play well Sunday. It is OK to acknowledge that without getting all butt hurt that Sanchez or whomever offered criticism.  The end zone pick was a terrible decision, and he went back to his habit of trying to go downfield vs. taking the more open underneath throws as he did against the Pats the week before.  A guy of Josh’s caliber should never have below 50% completion and as low a QB rating as he had.  Happens to the best of them every once in a while, I’m sure Josh would be the first to say he didn’t play well, and I’m equally sure he won’t have that kind of performance again anytime soon.

[Nuncha]

Two tipped balls in the snow were intercepted, but he got the W anyway.  Just win baby...that's all that matters.

[Arkady Renko]

1 hour ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

I have not watched the Fox broadcast yet.  I thought Sanchez might offer some insight into Josh's playing style because of their association through the QB summit so all the complaints about his commentary surprised me some.  When Josh did the podcast interview with Mark, which was very good, Sanchez seemed genuinely concerned with the hits Josh allows himself to take and wanting him to play with more discretion which is a concern many Bills fans share.

 

The debate we had about NFL passer rating vs. ESPN's Total QBR was starkly contrasted in this game.  Passer rating was 17 and QBR was a respectable 61.  Seems like Kubiak agrees with the latter.

 

You beat me to it while I was creating my post.  QBR is a mystery but I like it when it passes my eye test.

I like traditional QB rating when it makes Josh look good.  I prefer QBR in situations like this where it makes Josh look better.  

[ControllerOfPlanetX]

3 hours ago, First Round Bust said:

from the BN - Jim Kubiak  - football savant - weekly qb analysis

 

here is the conclusion portion of the article...only the first pick was on Josh - says pick #2 was on Beasley breaking-off his route incorrectly - #3 was the spy LB timing his leap perfectly

says daboll running Josh is like the wildcat plus one extra blocker and Bills pin the edge and pull schemes worked very well esp in RZ

 

The Bills rushed the football for 233 yards and dominated the time of possession an astounding 36:07 to 23:53 for the Falcons. It was a great game plan by Daboll to utilize Allen with quarterback crack sweeps and quarterback counter concepts. The Falcons’ defense was daring the Bills to run the football and were in position to take away the passing game receiver bubbles and RPOs.

The Bills’ ability to change personnel and block down on defensive linemen while pulling around the perimeter was very impressive and resulted in much needed relief for Allen, who had suffered a couple of bad-luck interceptions and three dropped passes.

It was a cool, calm and physical approach by the Buffalo offensive line, Singletary, Allen and Moss to methodically pound the football and wear down the Falcons defensively.

This was also a great example of how a quarterback’s statistics can be misleading. Allen really made only one poor decision in the game, his first interception. Beyond that, he was smart with the football.

His performance grade of 92.15% is an "A" in a playoff-clinching moment, even if his quarterback rating of 17.0 was the worst mark in his career. The video review revealed a tough and gritty performance from a franchise quarterback who values winning above all else, because in the end that is all that matters.

 

So Mark Sanchez can officially go effe himself over his criticality of Josh's play

 

 

If this game was Lamar instead of Josh, and the Ravens won by 2 TDS, the media including Sanchez, would be all over it praising resourcefulness and an MVP performance.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Another example yet again why QBR is in fact not garbage like most seem to think. People always pointing out those odd and rare examples where scrub QB with 100 yards passing has a better QBR then the guy with 300 yards and 3 TD's. When really those are just exceptions to the norm. And we get easily just as many crazy instances where passer rating does not show the true picture of a QB's performance. 

 

 

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

I dont blame Allen for a single one of his INT's.

 

INT 1 - Tipped.

INT 2 - WR Interfered with

INT 3- Tipped.

 

The first one is on definitely on Allen. Tip balls lead to INTs. Not all the time but it increases the chance for one. Allen forced a ball he shouldn't have. 

 

The second tipped ball INT wasn't a force throw by Allen. So either a great defensive play or ball that Allen just didn't quite put high enough. 

[JESSEFEFFER]

2 hours ago, Arkady Renko said:

I like traditional QB rating when it makes Josh look good.  I prefer QBR in situations like this where it makes Josh look better.  

Exactly.  

[Einstein]

17 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

The first one is on definitely on Allen. Tip balls lead to INTs. Not all the time but it increases the chance for one. Allen forced a ball he shouldn't have. 

 

The second tipped ball INT wasn't a force throw by Allen. So either a great defensive play or ball that Allen just didn't quite put high enough. 

 

Many of Allen’s TD’s are forced throws. If that ball wasn’t tipped, it may have been a TD. No way to know.

[RyanC883]

3 hours ago, Einstein said:

I dont blame Allen for a single one of his INT's.

 

INT 1 - Tipped.

INT 2 - WR Interfered with

INT 3- Tipped.

 

Not disagreeing, but shouldn't a QB be able to avoid 2 tipped passes that go for INT's, esp. one who is JA's height?  

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

33 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Many of Allen’s TD’s are forced throws. If that ball wasn’t tipped, it may have been a TD. No way to know.

 

And he gets credit when they are TD's and credit when they are INTs. I don't see a problem with that. 

[CircleTheWagons99]

3 hours ago, Bangarang said:

I don’t feel the need to constantly sugar coat things or try to massage Josh’s ego. Bad games are inevitably going to happen and there are going to be times where he doesn’t play well.

 

Sunday was one of those days. He tried forcing some throws and they didn’t work. That’s what happens when you have a guy with his arm and mentality. It’s great when it works but sucks when it doesn’t. It’s going to work a lot more than it doesn’t. 

But they werent flat out bad throws, 2 tipped and one was a penelty, if not you at least have to agree the wr was blocked/slowed down. It was a bad game. But he still scored two rushing TDs and adjusted the line for those running plays. Sugercoating is one thing, but saying he had a bad game is not entirely correct.   

[Royale with Cheese]

4 hours ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Oh, Mark....

 

 

I met him at the airport on the way home Monday.  He was a cool guy.

[Scott7975]

36 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

 

Not disagreeing, but shouldn't a QB be able to avoid 2 tipped passes that go for INT's, esp. one who is JA's height?  

 

Tipped balls happen every game.  A lot of them don't get picked.  Our own defense tips balls all the time or the team we are defending tips their own pass and it usually is not picked off.  It was just bad luck.  Much like a fumble that bounces is luck where it goes.

Edited January 5, 2022 by Scott7975

[Simon]

I don't care about a bunch of numbers; that was one of the finest displays of genuine leadership you'll ever see from a Bills QB.

Whether he was laying himself open to pick up first downs, being the first guy down the field to pick Motor up after a strong run, talking his OLine up and getting multiple guys chugging 15-20 yards downfield hunting targets, or keeping his head high and continuing to attack the next play no matter what had happened on the last.

Even when things were going sideways, he still had every guy on the field playing their ass off on every down; and he does it with his ass and not his mouth, which is the only way to sustain it. When you can get chill muther*****ers like Ed Oliver and Daryl Williams wanting to run through walls for you, You Are The Man.

[Einstein]

12 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

And he gets credit when they are TD's and credit when they are INTs. I don't see a problem with that. 

 

I guess I don’t see the point in giving credit based on the same action, same throw with only the result being different.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 minute ago, Einstein said:

 

I guess I don’t see the point in giving credit based on the same action, same throw with only the result being different.

 

Well you didn't blame Allen for the INT. So I assume that mean you do not credit him for some of his TD's? That seems confusing. 

[without a drought]

His incompletions are underrated too.

[Einstein]

8 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Well you didn't blame Allen for the INT. So I assume that mean you do not credit him for some of his TD's? That seems confusing. 

 

The inverse is not the same.
 

Giving him credit for a great TD is not analogous to not discrediting  him for a defensive player blocking his pass.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

22 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

The inverse is not the same.
 

Giving him credit for a great TD is not analogous to not discrediting  him for a defensive player blocking his pass.

 

Gonna have to agree to disagree I guess. 

[Da webster guy]

TV Announcers were clueless on the Bease target INT.   To me there were two things that happened, contact w Bease AND he clearly stopped his in-cut or curl or whatever he was supposed to be running.

 

Either way it wasnt on 17 as we know. 

[Thurman#1]

5 hours ago, Einstein said:

I dont blame Allen for a single one of his INT's.

 

INT 1 - Tipped.

INT 2 - WR Interfered with

INT 3- Tipped.

 

 

Tipped doesn't mean the QB is free of blame.

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, CircleTheWagons99 said:

But they werent flat out bad throws, 2 tipped and one was a penelty, if not you at least have to agree the wr was blocked/slowed down. It was a bad game. But he still scored two rushing TDs and adjusted the line for those running plays. Sugercoating is one thing, but saying he had a bad game is not entirely correct.   

 

 

I've only watched the first one on the All-22. Should have been thrown away or thrown better. Probably away.

 

The second one - without careful watching - appears to have been unavoidable. The third - again without seeing the All-22 - should have been thrown differently, perhaps to a check down. He had to know he was being spied, and that the guy was in perfect position to make that play. Yes, the leap was just perfect, but NFL players are capable of making beautiful athletic plays in situations like that. He was only 4 - 5 yards in front of Josh, he was in just the right position.

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

The second tipped ball INT wasn't a force throw by Allen. So either a great defensive play or ball that Allen just didn't quite put high enough. 

 

It wasn't a forced throw, but he didn't manipulate the LB with his eyes so he had an easy read on where the ball was going to be. Usually Allen is really good at that so I'm not worried. The ball caroming directly into a waiting defender's hands was total luck; the tip was caused by Allen being loose with his technique.

Edited January 5, 2022 by HappyDays

[Buffalo_Stampede]

In defense of Allen's poor stats...

 

 

[Ga boy]

5 hours ago, WotAGuy said:

I read that article today and thought it was overly generous to Josh. I believe Josh would say the same thing about it. 
 

Every QB has their days - the Bills beat Green Bay when Rodgers had some picks, but Josh was all over the place Sunday. Hopefully he’ll go back to taking those check downs and play it a little safer in the playoffs. Cannot afford TOs in the playoffs. 

Speaking of Green Bay, I saw some shades of Favre (btw, my fav QB).  Even with the pics, JA17 has the skill set to come back like Farve. The JA17 running gives him a dimension that is better than Farve.  Their will to win is similar. Go Bills!!